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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

Capella said:
Guys they’ve been dumping trillions in for a month now. It’s no surprise. They clearly are going to do whatever it takes. 
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This—but don’t forget that this is also two sided.   The trillions of dollars that they are printing with no backstop is going to dilute the dollar like no tomorrow.  Part of the reason the market is rising is because the super wealthy don’t want to be stuck in a position to have too much cash on their hands and see their wealth get eroded away through the dilution of the dollar.  That’s a big reason why a lot of stocks are going up with metrics that are more supportive of a giant freefall.     For long term investors—I’d say this.  Don’t get stuck with too much cash in your hands . Whether you choose to buy stocks, gold, or real estate—thats up to you—-but do not hold onto massive amounts of cash for the long term.  

 
I'm overthinking this game.  Maybe I just have to dumb it down and keep it simple?  On Tuesday, Bank CEO's teleconference with the WH = The play is FAS.  up 25+% since.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
This—but don’t forget that this is also two sided.   The trillions of dollars that they are printing with no backstop is going to dilute the dollar like no tomorrow.  Part of the reason the market is rising is because the super wealthy don’t want to be stuck in a position to have too much cash on their hands and see their wealth get eroded away through the dilution of the dollar.  That’s a big reason why a lot of stocks are going up with metrics that are more supportive of a giant freefall.     For long term investors—I’d say this.  Don’t get stuck with too much cash in your hands . Whether you choose to buy stocks, gold, or real estate—thats up to you—-but do not hold onto massive amounts of cash for the long term.  
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Good points. I have very little cash, I’ve been buying everything I can get my grubby hands on the last 3 weeks.

 
Love how the Fed announcement was precisely timed to come over the top of the unemployment number. Purely by chance, one supposes.

 
Lacey said:
Anyone want to lend me their crystal ball so I can figure out when to take profits??
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I usually take at 20% but Bloomin and delta were so cheap I’m letting it ride a little. Feels dirty but they really were at a hyper discount. 

 
Now do the Saudis add to it by cutting production? Meeting just started. 

This blew right thru the top end of Mancini's rising wedge. he said if it does, 3000 is next stop.

This is probably the last chance $SPX bears have to take this lower - price is nearing the 50% fib of the whole selloff at 2780 (same spot the 1930,2001,and 2008 relief rallies ended) *and at resistance of a rising wedge. Above 2780, and would get out of the way on the short side.

 
Action in CYDY makes no sense.  Stock acts terribly.  Great patient results and the stock trades up 10%+ in Germany and is now unchanged.  

 
Capella said:
Good points. I have very little cash, I’ve been buying everything I can get my grubby hands on the last 3 weeks.
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Fed Chairman Powell just said that inflation is not a first order concern for them right now.  He basically knows and effectively admitted that printing their way out of this turmoil will have medium to long term inflationary ramifications.  I’d just hold enough cash to support you and your family for maybe 3-6 months—but anything more than that you should probably put to work.   It’s very possible that by the time the Dow gets to 30000 again—the dollar could be worth 85-90 cents versus what it was worth before this pandemic.  

 
TripItUp said:
6.6m unemployment claims...nothing to see here 
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Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't believe the market really moved down at all on big unemployment reports in past crashes.  Granted they weren't as big as this report but in all cases big unemployment was expected already.

jvdesigns2002 said:
Fed Chairman Powell just said that inflation is not a first order concern for them right now.  He basically knows and effectively admitted that printing their way out of this turmoil will have medium to long term inflationary ramifications.  I’d just hold enough cash to support you and your family for maybe 3-6 months—but anything more than that you should probably put to work.   It’s very possible that by the time the Dow gets to 30000 again—the dollar could be worth 85-90 cents versus what it was worth before this pandemic.  
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Isn't the difference in this situation that everyone else is printing money as well?  Not as much as us but that should balance it out some I would think compared to if we were just printing all this money on some random Thursday where the rest of the world was calm.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Fed Chairman Powell just said that inflation is not a first order concern for them right now.  He basically knows and effectively admitted that printing their way out of this turmoil will have medium to long term inflationary ramifications.  I’d just hold enough cash to support you and your family for maybe 3-6 months—but anything more than that you should probably put to work.   It’s very possible that by the time the Dow gets to 30000 again—the dollar could be worth 85-90 cents versus what it was worth before this pandemic.  
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Won't be his problem. Still think we'll get a pullback once all these announcements are done and actually has to work its way through. But should have went with the expectation that the Fed Chairman will do whatever they can do to avoid going down as the next Eugene Meyer. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't believe the market really moved down at all on big unemployment reports in past crashes.  Granted they weren't as big as this report but in all cases big unemployment was expected already.

Isn't the difference in this situation that everyone else is printing money as well?  Not as much as us but that should balance it out some I would think compared to if we were just printing all this money on some random Thursday where the rest of the world was calm.
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The fact that everybody is printing money might slightly help balance things out—but it also makes it less likely and less appealing that the super wealthy will invest in foreign currency/foreign paper.   Global currencies getting diluted as a whole will motivate asset accumulation more than anything.   Eventually you are going to have a world that has too much paper (currency) and not enough investable assets.  This is obviously a long to very long term outlook—but effectively—I think a lot of really wealthy people are viewing this as a chance to bargain hunt assets knowing that years from now—they won’t be remotely obtainable at prices near this. 

 
It's a freakin casino and we are the players and the FED and insiders are the house. The game is roulette. 

Mark Cuban is not an insider: 'I Am Trying To Get More Cash': Why Mark Cuban Isn't Hopeful On US Market Rally

Gotta believe that Ackman shyster is paying someone for information at the Fed.

 
sporthenry said:
Won't be his problem. Still think we'll get a pullback once all these announcements are done and actually has to work its way through. But should have went with the expectation that the Fed Chairman will do whatever they can do to avoid going down as the next Eugene Meyer. 
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Oh—I don’t disagree.  I should make crystal clear that I’m certainly not saying that our markets are on a path to go up meteorically every day or that we are anywhere out of the economic woods in regards to this pandemic.  The waters can and will be choppy for the near to medium term.   We’ll probably have some significant market motions up and down before anything that I said will have a chance to come to fruition. I’m just speaking generally on long term macro levels.   

 
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I'd say the lows are in for the crushed stocks that we have listed here. BLMN, airlines, MGM, MFA, etc. However, i can see them selling off some when they report earnings.

I know nothing!!!!!!!!!

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Oh—I don’t disagree.  I should make crysta l clear that I’m certainly not saying that our markets are on a path to go up meteorically every day or that we are anywhere out of the economic woods in regards to this pandemic.  The waters can and will be choppy for the near to medium term.   We’ll probably have some significant market motions up and down before anything that I said will have a chance to come to fruition. I’m just speaking generally on long term macro levels.   
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Oh yeah, wasn't implying that is what you were thinking. Do you have thoughts on crypto? Does it finally break its correlation from EM? I haven't touched it much for all the reasons most people don't and it didn't really act as a hedge to all this. But seems like there will be demand for non $ assets. Or is real estate / gold just the play?

Also missed the Fed backstopping corporate credit even more. Looks like junk buying was limited to fallen angels and the ETFs but we really are in the privatize profits and socialize losses. Not sure how buying corporate bonds is helping main street. 

 
Why do i think that once the stimulus checks are in our hands, a few days later they will take this market down? today is the day that people should start getting them if I recall.

I was planning on buying stocks with it but not now. 

 
I can’t help but be very very concerned when the dust settles.......and these trillions of dollars in deficits we will be dealing with. Man......the roosters will come home to roost at some point.

I mean we had no choice. But this is getting insane. There will be a hefty price to pay for this at some point.......and it will not be pretty. I also think it is setting up for another big leg down. I can’t let that go because....we have not even felt and seen the true consumer economic damage we will be seeing. We still do not know when this stay at home will be over, we still do not know what kind of total consumer demand will be. 

I am bullish long term. Make no mistake. But I feel like retail investors are getting lulled into a “V’ shaped recovery. I simply can’t see it.

Let’s here what Art Cashin says. He is speaking now. That guy has a lot of wisdom.

 
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sporthenry said:
Oh yeah, wasn't implying that is what you were thinking. Do you have thoughts on crypto? Does it finally break its correlation from EM? I haven't touched it much for all the reasons most people don't and it didn't really act as a hedge to all this. But seems like there will be demand for non $ assets. Or is real estate / gold just the play?

Also missed the Fed backstopping corporate credit even more. Looks like junk buying was limited to fallen angels and the ETFs but we really are in the privatize profits and socialize losses. Not sure how buying corporate bonds is helping main street. 
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I certainly am not super well versed in the world of cryptos—but I would say that long term—a world of global currency dilution should be supportive of the credible cryptos.   Credible being the key word there.   I personally prefer physical silver, gold and non commercial real estate in regards to what you are mentioning.   I ended up getting a few properties years back and the passive income that I’m getting every month through rent is just an added bonus to their values doubling/tripling since I acquired them.  Medium to long term—you’re going to see a lot of people who were on pace to purchase a home probably have to delay that for a while.  This could eventually lead to a stronger rental market. 

 
lod001 said:
Why do i think that once the stimulus checks are in our hands, a few days later they will take this market down? today is the day that people should start getting them if I recall.

I was planning on buying stocks with it but not now. 
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from what ive read hopefully next week but probably two weeks from now

 
Todem said:
I can’t help but be very very concerned when the dust settles.......and these trillions of dollars in deficits we will be dealing with. Man......the roosters will come home to roost at some point.

I mean we had no choice. But this is getting insane. There will be a hefty price to pay for this at some point.......and it will not be pretty. I also think it is setting up for another big leg down. I can’t let that go because....we have not even felt and seen the true consumer economic damage we will be seeing. We still do not know when this stay at home will be over, we still do not know what kind of total consumer demand will be. 

I am bullish long term. Make no mistake. But I feel like retail investors are getting lulled into a “V’ shaped recovery. I simply can’t see it.

Let’s here what Art Cashin says. He is speaking now. That guy has a lot of wisdom.
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Always loved Art Cashin.  My ex girlfriend even knew who he was because I referenced him so much during some period of market turmoil in the past.  That let me know I talked about stocks too much  :nerd:

 
Todem said:
I can’t help but be very very concerned when the dust settles.......and these trillions of dollars in deficits we will be dealing with. Man......the roosters will come home to roost at some point.

I mean we had no choice. But this is getting insane. There will be a hefty price to pay for this at some point.......and it will not be pretty. I also think it is setting up for another big leg down. I can’t let that go because....we have not even felt and seen the true consumer economic damage we will be seeing. We still do not know when this stay at home will be over, we still do not know what kind of total consumer demand will be. 

I am bullish long term. Make no mistake. But I feel like retail investors are getting lulled into a “V’ shaped recovery. I simply can’t see it.

Let’s here what Art Cashin says. He is speaking now. That guy has a lot of wisdom.
Click to expand...
I missed Art, he say anything good? This whole thing is kinda gross. Bailing out corporates on a multiple of the stimulus to individuals. Wonder if the consumer recognizes this. 

Santelli on CNBC railing against sending consumers more checks but nary a word about the corporate bailout the Fed is orchestrating. Maybe I missed it. He at least mentioned the defiicit but funny how everyone is a capitalist until they want the Fed to bail them out. Should all just go into PE.

 
lod001 said:
Why do i think that once the stimulus checks are in our hands, a few days later they will take this market down? today is the day that people should start getting them if I recall.

I was planning on buying stocks with it but not now. 
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Since it sounds like the stimulus checks are more of a 2021 refund loan, and unless people need it to survive now, investing it makes the most sense.

 
sporthenry said:
I missed Art, he say anything good? This whole thing is kinda gross. Bailing out corporates on a multiple of the stimulus to individuals. Wonder if the consumer recognizes this. 

Santelli on CNBC railing against sending consumers more checks but nary a word about the corporate bailout the Fed is orchestrating. Maybe I missed it. He at least mentioned the defiicit but funny how everyone is a capitalist until they want the Fed to bail them out. Should all just go into PE.
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Art is felling like this has topped out short term.....and I agree. 

The economy is shutdown still. I just got word at this moment (things could always change) I will be working from home for the next 6-8 weeks. I am in South Florida (Broward County). We have not even see the peak down here yet of infections. 

So take that information and draw some conclusions. While I love positive thinking and the POTUS seems to think we are all opening up May 1st.......We certainly do not look like we are in Florida.

Things can change though if a viable treatment comes along while we develop a vaccine. So I say this is the "up to the day" current situation down here. So what does that have to do with the market?

No doubt in my mind we are setting up for another pull back. But I think the lows of March 23rd are gone. And thankfully so. I do not want to see that again. But a 10-12 even 15% retractment is very much on the table.....and IMO likely as we trudge through this thing thru the election. 

However after the election......I feel we start to really get going again and 2021 will be a brand new bull market......when in 2021 we start that? Second quarter would be my best guess. Maybe as early as first quarter. But again it is still unknown. That is why I feel strongly about another pull back while we are in this current bear market. 

It has been unprecenteded times in terms of federal bailouts. Trillions of dollars being thrown at this thing with no limits.....the Fed is backstopping everything. You can’t fight the Fed. So those sub 20K dow lows......IMO....gone. Glad I put money to work back then. We only have 12-13% in cash left.....so we are simply sitting on what little we have left. 

Staying long.....staying strong. Good luck to everyone.  

And we dumped BLMN for a 65% gain........take the money and run. MGM still a hold for me....but if I see 65-70% gains we are gone. Have to take those. It is moving so fast. I rarely trade like that.....but those were meant to be trades.....and sticking around in BLMN that long....not my M.O. I am not a long term guy in casual dining stocks (only YUM and MCD are long term holds for me in fast food).

 
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sporthenry said:
Todem said:
I can’t help but be very very concerned when the dust settles.......and these trillions of dollars in deficits we will be dealing with. Man......the roosters will come home to roost at some point.

I mean we had no choice. But this is getting insane. There will be a hefty price to pay for this at some point.......and it will not be pretty. I also think it is setting up for another big leg down. I can’t let that go because....we have not even felt and seen the true consumer economic damage we will be seeing. We still do not know when this stay at home will be over, we still do not know what kind of total consumer demand will be. 

I am bullish long term. Make no mistake. But I feel like retail investors are getting lulled into a “V’ shaped recovery. I simply can’t see it.

Let’s here what Art Cashin says. He is speaking now. That guy has a lot of wisdom.
Click to expand...
I missed Art, he say anything good? This whole thing is kinda gross. Bailing out corporates on a multiple of the stimulus to individuals. Wonder if the consumer recognizes this. 

Santelli on CNBC railing against sending consumers more checks but nary a word about the corporate bailout the Fed is orchestrating. Maybe I missed it. He at least mentioned the defiicit but funny how everyone is a capitalist until they want the Fed to bail them out. Should all just go into PE.
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Art was fairly skeptical. Said this is unique because it's our first "planned" recession, recovery looks more like an L-shape and the chances of a rapid bounce back are low. Thought we were at the top of the "rebound" until the Fed came in and gave us another breath of air. Best thing that could happen is a successful treatment which would give us a V, 2nd best is a vaccine (because it would take longer).

Pretty much where I'm at- think we're pricing in awful numbers but only for a short duration, if we don't get a successful treatment soon I think this is going to drag on much longer than what's currently being priced in. Of course, the Fed is a huge wild card.

 
Todem said:
Stay the course with BA, MGM and BLMN. 

Not concerned in the least bit.  I am not day trading nor a day trader, so take that for what it is worth. 
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@Todem you give a great perspective, just curious though, back in the day (you know, a week ago...lol).  With BLMN sounded like you were long and there was a previous post somewhere higher where you liked them getting back much higher (maybe someone else).

Did I misread or was the sudden profit too much to resist selling and taking the money off the table?

(Learning in this thread, so, I'll hang up and listen)

 
Housing inventories have to be climbing....that can't be good.  I worry that housing prices are going to be the next drop and will have a significant negative impact.  I hope I'm wrong.

 
General Malaise said:
Housing inventories have to be climbing....that can't be good.  I worry that housing prices are going to be the next drop and will have a significant negative impact.  I hope I'm wrong.
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Inventories have been extremely below normal for four years now.  A slight increase isn't a bad thing.   Not seeing it here. We have inventory and pendings rise from the week before.

 
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