Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

[Don Hutson]

What stocks other than Lowe's and Home Depot can take advantage of a house remodeling boom?

 

[stbugs]

Am I the only one who barely gives any thought to the number of shares? I care about dollar amount, dividend, PE, future growth...

Ignoring the fundamentals of the stock (why you think it’s a good buy), the amount is the only thing that matters. Do you want to invest $5000 in HD or Lowes? Current price and share count is meaningless if you think Lowe’s will go up 50% and HD 30%.

 

[Todem]

Am I the only one who barely gives any thought to the number of shares? I care about dollar amount, dividend, PE, future growth...

Thank you. A $10,000 investment is a $10,000 investment.

A 50% return on that 10K is the same whether you have 1 share or 100,000 shares. 

For the life of me.....I never understand WTF people are thinking when they say....I can’t buy a lot of shares of Amazon......I wish it was lower in price. LORD!!!!! 

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

@stbugs another mainstream article about current state of ad industry posted on cnbc.  I don't know much but this is an industry Im pretty close to.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/advertising-companies-brace-for-downturn-as-coronavirus-rattles-ad-spending.html

Just no way IMO that TTD is not going to be affected harshly in the short term.  (next 6 months will likely be ugly)

 

[Todem]

What stocks other than Lowe's and Home Depot can take advantage of a house remodeling boom?

The same one that has been going on for 10 years? And also when people still go out and buy homes and need to put in new carpet and flooring anyway?

 

[Todem]

For the record, mine really had little to do with lowes being "better". It was just it was more affordable. Literally, I took a bonus check that I got mid March and deposited some of it in a Fidelity account. Was done as a means to entertain myself more than anything. Literally the equivalent of taking it to the local casino and playing poker - which is closed. This is not me trying to fund my retirement. So, I had a limited amount in there. When I deposited the money, I could by X shares of HD for stock for ~155 or I could by 2X shares of Lowes for like 69. 

Huh???? If you put in 10K into either stock.....it’s 10K man. 

If you get a 25% on either company.....it’s 25% on your 10K

The amount of shares means nothing. How much you invest and what's your return, is all that matters.

 

[Bossman]

You had a bear market. Whose fault is it you’re still in all cash? 

I'm 70% cash. No one to blame but myself ... waiting for "the bottom" that I kept hearing was coming.

CODX puts at a juicy % if anyone is interested in selling options.

Mar 15 / $7.50 put @ $1.30 = break even at $6.20

Currently trading in the $9~$10 range 

Sold 20 and will pocket the $2600 premium should it stay above $7.50 for a month.

 

[gruecd]

Anybody buying PTON here despite the fact that it's trading within 5-6% of its all-time high?  I just don't see gyms re-opening anytime soon, which really benefits exercise-at-home stories like PTON.  The only question is how much of that is already reflected in the price...

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

@stbugs another mainstream article about current state of ad industry posted on cnbc.  I don't know much but this is an industry Im pretty close to.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/advertising-companies-brace-for-downturn-as-coronavirus-rattles-ad-spending.html

Just no way IMO that TTD is not going to be affected harshly in the short term.  (next 6 months will likely be ugly)

Are you buying puts? How far out?

 

[guru_007]

I was going to tail JTC on those TTD puts, but holy hell are they expensive, so I passed.  I agree with the narrative, just having a hard time finding some value unless it goes way lower and a stock like TTD doesn't always trade rationally.  Also, if the economy doesn't go into a depression, firms will be upping their advertising budgets sooner trying to drive business.  I work in advertising/print media so well, it may be wishful thinking on my part, although I tend to deal with smaller companies.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Are you buying puts? How far out?

I have positions at 5/29 and 7/17

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

I was going to tail JTC on those TTD puts, but holy hell are they expensive, so I passed.  I agree with the narrative, just having a hard time finding some value unless it goes way lower and a stock like TTD doesn't always trade rationally.  Also, if the economy doesn't go into a depression, firms will be upping their advertising budgets sooner trying to drive business.  I work in advertising/print media so well, it may be wishful thinking on my part, although I tend to deal with smaller companies.

They are getting expensive, think the jig is up.  However this stock is fluctuating like crazy right now.

Feb 4: 303.30

Feb 27: 250.00

March 12: 192.65

March 18: 144.39

March 26: 209.00

April 3: 160.39

April 15: 230.84

An argument can certainly be made for profiting in both directions with these swings, just feel more confident on the downside

 

[kevzilla]

Selling all the TVIX at the close. Break-even price is $224.73. Sweat it with me!

 

[fred_1_15301]

Huh???? If you put in 10K into either stock.....it’s 10K man. 

If you get a 25% on either company.....it’s 25% on your 10K

The amount of shares means nothing. How much you invest and what's your return, is all that matters.

Yeah I'm pretty amateur with this stuff and this is a very basic concept even for someone like me.   

 

[cosjobs]

Shorters finally scared me into selling off 60% (my profits) of my CYDY this morning (near the bottom of course).

So I only have about 11,000 shares, but I guess they were free.

Moved the $$ into my Pandemic portfolio:

ABT

BABA

TAIL

CMG

ROKU

Also upped my positions in :

TZA

SPXS

NUGT

 

[cosjobs]

ROKU doing really well today, despite the headwinds

 

[Don Hutson]

CytoDyn: Understanding The COVID-19 Opportunity

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337783-cytodyn-understanding-covidminus-19-opportunity

Apr. 15, 2020 2:24 PM ET

CytoDyn (OTCQB:CYDY) continues to post impressive Leronlimab press releases that report hopeful accounts that the monoclonal antibody is able to have a positive impact on COVID-19 patient outcomes. It looks as if Leronlimab is able to mitigate the notorious "cytokine storm" that has been the culprit in many COVID-19 deaths. Unfortunately, many investors are having some difficulty understanding how Leronlimab is helping COVID-19 patients and how it differs from other potential therapies.

I intend to provide some basic background on cytokine storms and how Leronlimab has shown its ability to diminish its impact. In addition, I discuss why CytoDyn needs to capitalize on the COVID-19 opportunity and start establishing a record of following through on their undertakings.

What Is The Cytokine Storm?

It looks as if most people who contract COVID-19 only experience flu-like symptoms with a distinct dry cough. However, the infection has the potential to waterfall into a fatal case of pneumonia, particularly for the elderly and patients who have underlying medical conditions. Why is it so lethal? Essentially, the virus can cause a strong enough immune response to disable your ability to breathe and oxygenate your blood. When COVID-19 enters the body, it finds its way to your alveoli in your lungs and starts replicating itself inside healthy cells. This process promotes inflammation in the lungs, which facilitates a robust immune response. As this process unfolds, fluid begins to accumulate in the alveoli making breathing difficult. These symptoms will self-resolve for about 80-85% of COVID-19 patients. Unfortunately, the other 15-20% COVID-19 patients could develop a deadly "cytokine storm", which ends up damaging more of the alveoli and lung tissue than the virus itself. These storms are made up of approximately 14 different cytokines, including interleukin-6 "IL-6", interleukin-1 "IL-1", interferon-gamma "IFNγ", C-reactive protein "CRP", and tumor necrosis factor-alpha "TNF-alpha" that create the cytokine storm.

Why Is This So Deadly?

A cytokine storm is an overproduction of immune cells and their cytokines, which is associated with a surge of activated immune cells into the lungs. The resulting lung inflammation and fluid buildup can lead to an excessive amount of alveoli collapsing, causing acute respiratory distress syndrome "ARDS" and eventually high-altitude pulmonary edema "HAPE".

At this point, the fluid containing cellular debris is impairing the gas exchange process that supplies oxygen to the blood and will trigger systemic inflammatory response syndrome "SIRS", which is when protein-rich fluid crosses the threshold and into the bloodstream, causing septic shock and multi-organ failure. This is often the ultimate cause of death for COVID-19 patients who succumb to the infection.

Treating The Storm

Most of the world is looking towards a COVID-19 vaccine, convalescent plasma, and anti-virals to fight off the infection. However, there hasn't been as much focus on a therapy to alleviate the cytokine storm. It appears that some physicians are looking at immuno-suppressive modalities, such as corticosteroids, and targeted approaches, including monoclonal antibodies. The goal is to reduce the overproduction of specific cytokines, thus, preventing or reducing the accumulation and respiratory failure. If healthcare providers can reduce the number of cytokines, they could allow the patient's lungs to regain their ability to oxygenate the blood and hopefully improve their outcome.

How Can Leronlimab Help?

Leronlimab has shown the ability to reduce the IL-6 and TNF-alpha cytokines, which have been found in these COVID-19 cytokine storms. Thus far, Leronlimab has been used for emergency use in severely ill patients using the FDA's emergency IND protocol. So, there is some hope that Leronlimab could be a key component in the COVID-19 paradigm. In fact, blood samples from days 0, 3, and 7 established that Leronlimab encouraged substantial declines in the cytokine storm in all seven severely ill patients. In addition, CytoDyn publicized that Leronlimab had an amazing impact on multiple patients with severe COVID-19 that have been treated with Leronlimab at the Southern California Medical Center. What is more, one of those patients was in critical condition in the ICU and had already received an IL-6 blocking agent. However, the patient did not display any indication of improvement inside 4 days. Once Leronlimab was administered, the patient saw significant improvement within 24 hours and taken off the ventilator after 3 days. Moreover, four other patients with moderate COVID-19 were dosed with Leronlimab, with some being removed from oxygen support only after day one and have been discharged from the hospital.

Admittedly, we can't say that Leronlimab was the only reason why these patients were able to make it through the storm. However, the fact that some of these patients showed some positive responses to Leronlimab after failing previous treatments tells me that Leronlimab has a place in the COVID-19 treatment paradigm.

The COVID-19 Opportunity

The company is now looking to enroll patients in two Leronlimab clinical trials, including a phase II trial for patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 and a phase IIb/III trial for severely and critically ill patients with COVID-19. The phase IIb/III clinical trial will have 390 patients, which will be randomized 2:1 for Leronlimab or placebo. The primary endpoint is mortality rate at 28 days. Its interim analysis will include data from 50 patients.

If one of these trials shows that Leronlimab is able to improve mortality outcomes, we can expect CYDY to experience an increase in attention from the market. This attention would only multiply if we see Leronlimab have a positive impact in both moderate and severe cases. This would be the opportunity for CytoDyn to grab the attention of the world who is looking for a safe and effective treatment for all COVID-19 patients.

Perhaps the biggest opportunity comes from the potential for Leronlimab to outperform some of the more well-known COVID-19 therapeutics. Gilead's (GILD) Remdesivir showed that 68% of the patient experienced clinical improvement, which means nearly one-third of patients failed to show improvement. What is more, there was a 13% mortality rate. In addition, the rate of adverse events was high and the therapy requires a 10-day course of intravenous administration for 30-60 minutes per dose. Admittedly, we cannot directly compare Leronlimab with Remdesivir for several reasons. Most notably, Remdesivir is an antiviral and is working to reduce viral load, whereas Leronlimab is attempting to reduce the deadly cytokine storm. However, if Leronlimab's mortality numbers outperform Remdesivir's, we should see Leronlimab start to be mentioned along with other lead candidates for COVID-19.

Beyond COVID-19

Not only could this be a great opportunity for CytoDyn to get its name out there, but it could also bring some new investors who have recognized Leronlimab's clinical potential.

Leronlimab has two Fast Track designations and is moving closer to finalizing its rolling-BLA for HAART for the treatment of HIV-infected patients. In addition, Leronlimab has shown some potential to reduce tumor metastases in breast and prostate cancer. This is on top of several other promising pipeline programs (Figure 1) and potential programs (Figure 2).

Admittedly, it is hard to believe that Leronlimab is capable of being effective in all these indications. However, a successful COVID-19 trial should convince many of the skeptics that Leronlimab is a Swiss army knife of monoclonal antibodies.

Conclusion

CytoDyn continues to report updates that provide some hope to both healthcare and shareholders that Leronlimab has the potential to calm the cytokine storm and improve COVID-19 patient outcomes. If the company is able to report promising data in both of its COVID-19 clinical trials, we can anticipate an affirmative response from the market that could support the share price after its recent run-up. In addition, we might see the company entice additional partnerships and collaborations, as the healthcare sector begins to recognize Leronlimab's potential to treat a wide array of diseases and conditions.

The opportunity for CytoDyn to be recognized and accepted is there, but will the company be able to capitalize on it? I believe it will be hard for the world to ignore Leronlimab's potential, but I am still cautiously optimistic CytoDyn will be able to cultivate more than some press releases and clinical data. CytoDyn has a history of expanding the list of potential indications, with little progress towards securing the partnerships or funding needed to maximize Leronlimab's clinical and commercial potential. I believe this is an opportunity for CytoDyn to prove some of the naysayers wrong and showcase their ability to follow through on their endeavors. If the company fails to capitalize on this opportunity, we can expect the share price to recede back to pre-COVID-19 numbers as short-term investors jump ship.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CYDY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Put a buy in (always using limit) at $2.50. only another $500, which pretty much takes me out until next pay day (or stimulus comes through). 

Same here but it hasn't filled, and it's creeping up and away from that.

Guess I'm glad my order didn't fill at $2.50 yesterday.  I had sold my CYDY last week around $2.80 (bought at $1.50 or so), got back in CYDY at $2.25 today, just a nibble.  Not owning it for a few days I felt left out of half the talk in here.

Like a few others in here I'm a relative newb, have a little discretionary cash I can play around with while 98% of my investments are staying the course in my retirement accounts.  I did struggle last night watching DAL shoot up in after hours and not doing anything about it, only to watch it not only lose all of that but go down again today.  

 

[Don Hutson]

Why Lowe's over home Depot? 

We prefer HD here, although Lowe's is close behind. Lowe's has a lower dividend and lower PE, but otherwise looks similar enough on the surface. Balance sheets look to be in similar situations, again as an amateur and first glance, although HD is quite a bit larger. 

One advantage that Lowe's has over Home Depot is that a higher percentage of  Lowe's clients are individual homeowners.  Home Depot does more business with professionals.  The home renovation boom that is coming will be homeowners doing projects themselves.  Professional contracting might go down.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just cashed out my tza for a 12% gain on the day

 

[BassNBrew]

One advantage that Lowe's has over Home Depot is that a higher percentage of  Lowe's clients are individual homeowners.  Home Depot does more business with professionals.  The home renovation boom that is coming will be homeowners doing projects themselves.  Professional contracting might go down.

I’ll speak to what Lowe’s is in the process of doing to better position themselves long term but will hurt short term this evening 

 

[BassNBrew]

Anybody buying PTON here despite the fact that it's trading within 5-6% of its all-time high?  I just don't see gyms re-opening anytime soon, which really benefits exercise-at-home stories like PTON.  The only question is how much of that is already reflected in the price...

I really like the concept and I know you like the product. The all time highs scare me off stocks like this which is where a good financial advisor would come in

 

[gruecd]

I really like the concept and I know you like the product. The all time highs scare me off stocks like this which is where a good financial advisor would come in

My financial advisor convinced me to buy it.  He's really good.  And good-looking.

ETA:  I don't like the fundamentals (not making money anytime soon), but I like the story and the momentum.

 

[-OZ-]

My financial advisor convinced me to buy it.  He's really good.  And good-looking.

ETA:  I don't like the fundamentals (not making money anytime soon), but I like the story and the momentum.

I'm still waiting for the peloton pools to really kick it in.

Being half serious here, I can run outside and bike outside but the damn pools are closed. Could swim in the river but that's not ideal. 

Imagine a small pool, whether that's one of those ones with current or if you're just tethered, with a decent screen in your goggles or on the wall (visible with goggles) making you feel like you're either in the Bahamas or in Kona, depending on your preference. 



Sorry about the hijack...

 

[stbugs]

ROKU doing really well today, despite the headwinds

One of the ones I DCA’d on 3/16 for $65. Wish I bought more!

 

[Zegras11]

I would like to thanks Chet for calming the market down

 

[-OZ-]

Sort of on the subject: what's the best VR tech right now? That seems to have big time potential. 

 

[McBokonon]

Just cashed out my tza for a 12% gain on the day

Easily my favorite Wu-Tang solo album.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

I think it has more to do with shorts with another attack.  Heard Gilead has suspended a covid 19 trial in China of its drug, remdesivir.  They claim that China is under control and, essentially, they couldn't find patients to add.  huh?  

Best thing for CytoDyn is to get on the NAZ exchange.  As GM noted earlier, OTC stocks are short infested waters.  Large swings aren't uncommon.

I imagine a lot of new buyers are due to covid applications, but most of us here got in (thanks, Chet) because of the HIV and cancer treatments.  Even if the news from covid trials weren't all that great, I'd still be interested in staying long because of why I entered in the first place.  If the drug didn't get approval for covid, the stock price would probably fall to below a buck.  Of course we'd hate to see that happen, but a silver lining would be it would provide a nice entry point and/or point to add more shares at a low price.  

The CEO isn't helping to instill confidence but hopefully the positive results will eventually reach mainstream national media outlets.  Leningrab is helping patients.  Just not many know it I guess.  

Rita Wilson (Hanks' wife) said she experienced severe side effects from taking the chloroquine malaria drug that the president has been pimping for the last month.  Said she felt completely nauseous and suffered from vertigo.  That drug and Gilead's drug remdesivir are the only ones I've heard of repeatedly on mainstream news.  There are been local broadcast affiliates around the country and articles here and there mentioning CYDY's drug but it just seems it isn't getting major exposure.  Maybe they don't have enough cash to persuade the right people.  Gilead is the big pharma, not CytoDyn.  

A few days ago Gilead had a fairly positive test on a larger number of patients than CYDY has ever reported back on.  The stock barely moved that day.  

Not that I claim to know much about this kind of testing but it's obvious CYDY needs to show results on a lot more patients than they have currently shown.  

The tl:dr is that no reason to expect this not to have pretty large swings in the meantime.  They have dribbled out some positive news to keep the hook going but not enough to stabalize it from any swings.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

For me--It feels like todays losses of only about 440 on the Dow were almost a victory.  The data that was released today was shockingly bad even against low expectations.   I still am a believer in the markets for the long term--but the markets bounce back the past couple of weeks--and todays mild loss in response to fairly catastropic data leads to believe that there is still a lot of irrationality being priced in for the short and medium term.   I'm not going to be cashing out anymore--as I'm a long term investor--but todays action (or lack thereof)  scared me a bit.  As an investor--I prefer when markets factor in risk--I've been saying this for a while--and the past couple weeks are starting to feel like how the market was acting before the pandemic (our markets were ignoring risk). 

Hypothetically--let's say that a lot of the country starts to open up their economy by June or mid June.   There's no way to evaluate or quantify this--but has our governments (on the local, state, and national levels) done or shown anything to show that they are mitigating the potential of a second wave?   I don't feel like testing is ramping up at massive levels, I don't see that the hospitals are getting well stocked on PPEs, I'm not seeing any sort of centralized system organizing contact tracing, I'm not seeing sanitizing products being made available on a wide level to the public (the public should have easy availability to things like hand sanitizer, and truly germ grade masks, disinfecting cleaning supplies).   Maybe this stuff is going on behind curtains--but I'm personally not feeling super confident that the re-opening of our economy is going to happen without some obstacles and some more future closures and lockdowns.   

Again--I'm positve for the long term--and I know I'm coming across as being pessimistic. With that said--it's not often that I can say that I feel like a loss of just 445 seems like a victory for the short and medium term bulls.  

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

But gosh, wouldn't Microsoft, Intel, Apple, IBM, Cisco do well with more workers using technology from home?  

Agree and tech is hanging in there pretty well overall.   Have MSFT and CSCO.  Like AMD better than Intel though.

 

[General Malaise]

Agree and tech is hanging in there pretty well overall.   Have MSFT and CSCO.  Like AMD better than Intel though.

AMD a core position for us.  Has been for a while.  That thing was like a dollar a couple years back.  CRAZY!

 

[cosjobs]

Sort of on the subject: what's the best VR tech right now? That seems to have big time potential. 

easy there, Nostradamus 

 

[cosjobs]

AMD a core position for us.  Has been for a while.  That thing was like a dollar a couple years back.  CRAZY!

The Ryzen chip seems like a bmf

 

[kevzilla]

Out of TVIX up 2.7%, so while I still have my scalp, I should probably wear a cap for a while.

 

[stbugs]

Sort of on the subject: what's the best VR tech right now? That seems to have big time potential. 

I’ll be honest that I don’t think it’s that huge. Remember 3D TVs? How about Google glasses?

I think things will pop up like heads up displays in cars or Princess Leah in R2-D2, but other than gimmicks, I don’t see any of my kids clamoring to buy any of the VR gaming options out there.

I think Apple or Google will have a new “watch” or eyeglasses one day or Tesla will have a new augmented panel.

 

[Don Hutson]

or Princess Leah in R2-D2,

I wonder if R2-D2 was ever in Princess Leah?  He might have had an attachment.

 

[-OZ-]

I’ll be honest that I don’t think it’s that huge. Remember 3D TVs? How about Google glasses?

I think things will pop up like heads up displays in cars or Princess Leah in R2-D2, but other than gimmicks, I don’t see any of my kids clamoring to buy any of the VR gaming options out there.

I think Apple or Google will have a new “watch” or eyeglasses one day or Tesla will have a new augmented panel.

I get what you're saying, but the applications far exceed 3D TV. Especially if social distancing becomes more routine. The training values for dangerous professions is huge. The military has been using various types for a while now. 

It's hasn't really caught on for the household but part of that is price. I'm not necessarily talking full blown VR, but augmented reality, even as simple as the Pokemon game which was big for a bit, or for use in sports can be big.

I don't think I'm saying anything really new here, I just haven't seen which companies are best yet. Google glass didn't cut it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm 70% cash. No one to blame but myself ... waiting for "the bottom" that I kept hearing was coming.

CODX puts at a juicy % if anyone is interested in selling options.

Mar 15 / $7.50 put @ $1.30 = break even at $6.20

Currently trading in the $9~$10 range 

Sold 20 and will pocket the $2600 premium should it stay above $7.50 for a month.

Man CODX is a scary stock to do that with.  They could be worth a dollar as soon as tomorrow.

I think I'd rather do that on CCL which is about the same price for a $10 put.  While they are a bankruptcy risk too it's not going to happen within the next month.

Anybody buying PTON here despite the fact that it's trading within 5-6% of its all-time high?  I just don't see gyms re-opening anytime soon, which really benefits exercise-at-home stories like PTON.  The only question is how much of that is already reflected in the price...

I go back and forth on this.  I get the theory but while I agree people are looking for home workout solutions, I wonder if speculative buyers aren't over estimating how many people are going to choose the absolutely most expensive home workout solution possible while sitting at home worried about their job.

It seems like the theory has already been priced in to the stock as well, so they are going to really have to knock it out of the park on earnings to justify that unlike most everyone else who is getting a pass on it.

 

[dkp993]

Easily my favorite Wu-Tang solo album.

You need to diversify your bonds, #####. 

C.R.E.A.M., dolla dolla bill ya’ll.  

 

[sporthenry]

I need more powder!  Who wants to start a small business with me so we can get a cheap rate loan?

You mean like the hedge funds looking for loans?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/hedge-fund-managers-are-claiming-bailouts-as-small-businesses

 

[Whyatt]

Anybody buying PTON here despite the fact that it's trading within 5-6% of its all-time high?  I just don't see gyms re-opening anytime soon, which really benefits exercise-at-home stories like PTON.  The only question is how much of that is already reflected in the price...

We (wife) bought one about 4 weeks ago when the lockdown was ramping up, and paused our gym membership. We are using and enjoying it. I know of many others who in the same boat, and have heard there is now a 4 week delivery vs. our 2 weeks. I get this is a “luxury” purchase, thankfully some of us are in situations less affected by the pandemic. 

I’ve looked at PTON stock too and don’t know how to value it ether. I have a hard time buying stocks near their highs. Its on my watch list, which means I’ll watch it go higher. 

 

[pecorino]

I’m not touching PTON but if I did, I’d be short not long. Too much competition in the space and it’s only got a few (expensive) products. Pass.

 

[sporthenry]

I'm not a growth investor, more bottoms up than top down. I think all these stay at home stocks are just momentum, sentiment, retail-investor stocks going up. Can't see ZM or PTON really being valued on fundamentals. That said, the real bull case on PTON is the subscription based model. Subscriptions were 20% of revenue in FY19 but that will continue to grow as they grow subscriber base and eventually penetration reaches a limit so product sales decline.

Their TAM is 67mn subscribers (45mn in US) and SAM is 14mn (12mn in US). So I guess you run it from there. No idea what a good penetration number is and I may quibble a bit with their starting demographic (18-70 year olds households making $50k, seems like it'd be more like 30-50 $100k+ but who knows). They have first mover advantage so that should help but seems like minimal barriers to entry. The one benefit is they pretty much have their teeth stuck in you after you drop $2k, what is $40 / month. Running subscription at 45% gross margins now. Imagine economies of scale could be lucrative a la NFLX. Just NFLX had years head start before DIS and CMCSA realized they essentially helped create their biggest competition. 

 

[dmac37]

As a total newbie to the stock world I'm itching to make a small fun investment into the CYDY train before it leaves the station. After not taking the plunge back when it was in the $1.00 range I still like the short term gamble with the COVID aspect as it looks to have a solid foundation vs a total shot in the dark but also feel there is still long range upside with their original target market. Is there any right way to do this other than trying to pounce at a low point with a buy limit in place.

 

[cosjobs]

I'm not a growth investor, more bottoms up than top down. I think all these stay at home stocks are just momentum, sentiment, retail stocks going up. Can't see ZM or PTON really being valued on fundamentals. That said, the real bull case on PTON is the subscription based model. Subscriptions were 20% of revenue in FY19 but that will continue to grow as they grow subscriber base and eventually penetration reaches a limit so product sales decline.

Their TAM is 67mn subscribers (45mn in US) and SAM is 14mn (12mn in US). So I guess you run it from there. No idea what a good penetration number is and I may quibble a bit with their starting demographic (18-70 year olds households making $50k, seems like it'd be more like 30-50 $100k+ but who knows). They have first mover advantage so that should help but seems like minimal barriers to entry. The one benefit is they pretty much have their teeth stuck in you after you drop $2k, what is $40 / month. Running subscription at 45% gross margins now. Imagine economies of scale could be lucrative a la NFLX. Just NFLX had years head start before DIS and CMCSA realized they essentially helped create their biggest competition. 

I think we can all get behind good penetration numbers

 

[pecorino]

As a total newbie to the stock world I'm itching to make a small fun investment into the CYDY train before it leaves the station. After not taking the plunge back when it was in the $1.00 range I still like the short term gamble with the COVID aspect as it looks to have a solid foundation vs a total shot in the dark but also feel there is still long range upside with their original target market. Is there any right way to do this other than trying to pounce at a low point with a buy limit in place.

Welcome. Enter a limit order to buy at a price you’re comfortable with and wait for it to hit. I will say that, if you are a newbie, you need to be prepared to lose your money. This is a small company with the capability of a stock price with wild swings up or down. Throw your disposable cash in. But if you are looking for a safer investment, look elsewhere. ETFs, index funds, mutual funds, large cap stocks. You’re jumping in to the deep end here. 

 

[Don Hutson]

People like high end, name brand exercise equipment.  It can be a status symbol that people buy to show off their wealth.  Nordictracks have been proudly displayed in people's houses for years.  Peloton is the new Nordictrack.  But more expensive.  It being very expensive is part of the appeal.

 

[dmac37]

Welcome. Enter a limit order to buy at a price you’re comfortable with and wait for it to hit. I will say that, if you are a newbie, you need to be prepared to lose your money. This is a small company with the capability of a stock price with wild swings up or down. Throw your disposable cash in. But if you are looking for a safer investment, look elsewhere. ETFs, index funds, mutual funds, large cap stocks. You’re jumping in to the deep end here. 

I understand this is a very risky long shot. This will just be a very small investment within my overall safe simple IRA. My investment advisor has recently mixed my portfollio with some good (I hope) long term stock moves with companies like Disney, Boeing, and Valero when the market was down.

 

[Capella]

People like high end, name brand exercise equipment.  It can be a status symbol that people buy to show off their wealth.  Nordictracks have been proudly displayed in people's houses for years.  Peloton is the new Nordictrack.  But more expensive.  It being very expensive is part of the appeal.

Yup. Same reason people buy Nikes