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guru_007 said:
Oh, it's always a bad idea, such as market timing.  And a lot of noise to be just ignored, imho, same as people that enjoy posting their one day balance increases 🙄  

If you want to trade on your instincts with market moves short term, this should be done in the options market.  People looking to jump in and out of stocks are almost always going to lose money, no matter what they post here.  Options allow you to risk a little to make a lot if you're actually right. 
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Maybe you were directing this at me.  I've been one of the guys posting my one day balance decreases.  Not so much a look at me as a look at all the great advice being dished out in this thread.  There's been a lot of set it and forget it advice in this thread, I just happen to believe that in this market, that's poor advice and active management will be successful.  I don't believe I have an options option in my 401k account.

 
Going to take a small stake in AIRT (Air T Inc) today.  I don't think the benefit of the PPP forgivable loan has been priced in.  Also plan to add some EURN.

 
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BassNBrew said:
Maybe you were directing this at me.  I've been one of the guys posting my one day balance decreases.  Not so much a look at me as a look at all the great advice being dished out in this thread.  There's been a lot of set it and forget it advice in this thread, I just happen to believe that in this market, that's poor advice and active management will be successful.  I don't believe I have an options option in my 401k account.
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Hey man you do you. I know which way I lean but groupthink sucks too. 

 
Just sold a 1/3 of my XOM off.  It was up 4% on the day and 38% from purchase.  Trying to replenish cash.  Tried to get cute and didn't pick up add'l CYDY at the low and missed my BLMN exit opportunity.

 
Just acquired some ZAG and JAX.  This is my play at companies that will benefit from the payroll protection program that are also trading near 52 week lows.

 
For those that asked.

The master list I gave (forget the airline and cruise stock picks which I never purchased still to this day) is up about 22% since March 23rd. 

It has half the beta of the S&P 500 (.52 beta compared to 1.00 beta). It is a rock. 

I am really looking forward to this country reopening and I am glad it is starting in areas that are far safer than others. 

Down here is South Florida hospitals and Doctors are reporting our peak most likely happened. The numbers are falling fast. We actually have more hospital capacity now than we did before Covid got going. Think about that for a second. 

So good news coming in everyday in our state. People are simply ready to go back to work. 

The worry is the second wave in the Fall. But my hope is by then we have employed aggressive anti-body testing. I am simply speculating.....but why do i have a feeling when we look back after all the testing we can do we will find out the death rate was the same as the annual flu we deal with. Just a feeling. Based on nothing but the trends we are starting to see the more and more we read about anti-body testing. 

In a few years we will look back and really know was the shutdown worth the price? That may never be answered. But it would be interesting to know. I have no answer. I am not a doctor.

I just hope our country can rebound strongly, stay healthy and prosper again. And I think we will. 2021 will be a positive year IMO. A very positive year in the market. 

The market right now......is a little ahead of itself. With companies giving zero guidance on earnings moving forward we are pricing stocks blind. That is a scary game to play.

So what you need to do is have a strong asset allocation plan, a strong time horizon, and buy high quality companies that will get through this. Yes some on the list I gave are cyclical in nature.....but man the prices they went to? You probably won’t see that again for 10 years easy. That was a hyper fast correction. Fastest in history. Before you could blink the market went down nearly 40% and rebounded over 20% from that low. 

Anyway......I am still sitting on that 10-12% in cash (just took another nibble of CAT when it went down 10% in one day). I am in no rush to buy anything unless it screams to me “buy buy buy”. I don’t see anything that screams buy right at this moment that I just have to have that I don’t already own anyway. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
What do you think will happen with the LK?
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I honestly have no idea. I’d never sell it at the current price even if I could. It’s worth $400 and it’s more likely that it’ll get back to $24 than other investments. They faked about 10% of the sales. I don’t think they’ll go away so it might just be a stock you wait until the investigation is over and even if it doesn’t get back to 40-50 like it was (I bought at 24), it’s still a pretty easy multi-bagger if it just gets over.

 
Todem said:
For those that asked.

The master list I gave (forget the airline and cruise stock picks which I never purchased still to this day) is up about 22% since March 23rd. 

It has half the beta of the S&P 500 (.52 beta compared to 1.00 beta). It is a rock. 

I am really looking forward to this country reopening and I am glad it is starting in areas that are far safer than others. 

Down here is South Florida hospitals and Doctors are reporting our peak most likely happened. The numbers are falling fast. We actually have more hospital capacity now than we did before Covid got going. Think about that for a second. 

So good news coming in everyday in our state. People are simply ready to go back to work. 

The worry is the second wave in the Fall. But my hope is by then we have employed aggressive anti-body testing. I am simply speculating.....but why do i have a feeling when we look back after all the testing we can do we will find out the death rate was the same as the annual flu we deal with. Just a feeling. Based on nothing but the trends we are starting to see the more and more we read about anti-body testing. 

In a few years we will look back and really know was the shutdown worth the price? That may never be answered. But it would be interesting to know. I have no answer. I am not a doctor.

I just hope our country can rebound strongly, stay healthy and prosper again. And I think we will. 2021 will be a positive year IMO. A very positive year in the market. 

The market right now......is a little ahead of itself. With companies giving zero guidance on earnings moving forward we are pricing stocks blind. That is a scary game to play.

So what you need to do is have a strong asset allocation plan, a strong time horizon, and buy high quality companies that will get through this. Yes some on the list I gave are cyclical in nature.....but man the prices they went to? You probably won’t see that again for 10 years easy. That was a hyper fast correction. Fastest in history. Before you could blink the market went down nearly 40% and rebounded over 20% from that low. 

Anyway......I am still sitting on that 10-12% in cash (just took another nibble of CAT when it went down 10% in one day). I am in no rush to buy anything unless it screams to me “buy buy buy”. I don’t see anything that screams buy right at this moment that I just have to have that I don’t already own anyway. 
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Like the CAT call and been looking at HON a lot recently. 

 
For the TTD guys I put limit orders in to sell at $234. 380 of my 500 shares. Was my biggest holding besides AMZN. I wasn’t comfortable anymore with how much I had. Made a nice chunk of change in a year, got at $170. Still like it a lot long term and if gets back down to $180 or lower I’d likely buy some more. 

 
sporthenry said:
Um, I mean, stocks can't really go to 0. If a stock ever goes to 0, you should buy infinite shares because your potential return would be unlimited that way. But would assume your broker would auto exercise it. At worst, I believe OCC would auto exercise it at the last trade price. But even if that wasn't the case, if you exercised the put, you'd be short the stock and then you'd be a natural buyer. So you would be the incremental buyer and could probably get squeezed a bit. 
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Ok.  I understand how a short sale works if a stock goes to 0.

Say you bought puts on Enron - trading was halted and it declared bankruptcy.  What are those puts worth?  I've always wondered that.  

 
stbugs said:
I honestly have no idea. I’d never sell it at the current price even if I could. It’s worth $400 and it’s more likely that it’ll get back to $24 than other investments. They faked about 10% of the sales. I don’t think they’ll go away so it might just be a stock you wait until the investigation is over and even if it doesn’t get back to 40-50 like it was (I bought at 24), it’s still a pretty easy multi-bagger if it just gets over.
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How long are we expecting the halt.  It's showing as a loss in my daily numbers everyday.  It would be nice to see it trading again.

 
Might sell MRNA today. Bought on April 2, 67% gain in 3 weeks isn't half bad. Unless of course they solve the world's problems tomorrow.

 
Some macro items: 

Sweden expecting herd immunity in weeks. 20% in Stockholm have been infected.  This is unabashedly good news for the world (and the US) reopening.

Talks of protecting small businesses from frivolous COVID lawsuits.  You gotta know the personal injury lawyers are licking their chops to cash in on this.  Last thing we need to reopen this is lawsuits bankrupting what businesses survive.  I expect that this will be "discussed heatedly" on the Hill as that group pays politicians handsomely to be able to extract their toll on society.

 
Sand said:
Some macro items: 

Sweden expecting herd immunity in weeks. 20% in Stockholm have been infected.  This is unabashedly good news for the world (and the US) reopening.

Talks of protecting small businesses from frivolous COVID lawsuits.  You gotta know the personal injury lawyers are licking their chops to cash in on this.  Last thing we need to reopen this is lawsuits bankrupting what businesses survive.  I expect that this will be "discussed heatedly" on the Hill as that group pays politicians handsomely to be able to extract their toll on society.
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Lawyers gotta make a living too! 

Actually screw those offense attorneys. Scumbags

 
Capella said:
Read 3 articles since yesterday that amazon reports 4/23 but apparently it’s the 30th? Man if they can’t get the date right what is the rest of the content like. 
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I am going by Yahoo. I was thinking 4/23 but I do recall it was a range with 4/23 as the start of the range and now it’s 4/30. I’ve used My Yahoo for a long time and it’s a nice place to create a single portfolio across accounts. Have to update it but it has all the articles link to each stock that Fidelity doesn’t have and even in Fidelity, I have to go account by account and even login with two different users (wife has Fidelity for 401k as well and stock plan account). Great that it’s all in one place but even then I can’t see across all at one time and also click on a stock to get news and numbers.

Anyone have a good site that has all current news and numbers and can link to your accounts more easily?

 
LOL...thank you @Todem for the Bloomin' tip.  I know you didn't intend it as a trading vehicle, but it was a great call.  

In the last 3 weeks...

In at 6.35, out at 9.32, 47%

In at 8.31, out at 9.63, 16%

In at 8.40, out at 9.24, 10%

I think I might use the profits to buy some "more" Amazon

 
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Capella said:
Read 3 articles since yesterday that amazon reports 4/23 but apparently it’s the 30th? Man if they can’t get the date right what is the rest of the content like. 
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So I can give some insight, not that it necessarily refutes your point about being sloppy. But a lot of people probably rely on Bloomberg or another data source to generate earnings dates. They usually rely on previous years. AMZN reported April 25 on a Thursday. I'd guess AMZN always reports on Thursday so they estimate it to be that closest Thursday which would be the 24th. 

They didn't announce their earnings date until the 16th which is kinda late. I assume earnings reports could get messy especially for a lot of the HY companies. It is somewhat sloppy but such is the nature of these electronic pulls. It's actually terrifying how off bloomberg or factset can be with financial data. 

 
BassNBrew said:
How long are we expecting the halt.  It's showing as a loss in my daily numbers everyday.  It would be nice to see it trading again.
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No freaking clue. I wouldn’t expect it soon. I don’t think it counts anymore in my totals but I may be incorrect.  

 
sporthenry said:
So I can give some insight, not that it necessarily refutes your point about being sloppy. But a lot of people probably rely on Bloomberg or another data source to generate earnings dates. They usually rely on previous years. AMZN reported April 25 on a Thursday. I'd guess AMZN always reports on Thursday so they estimate it to be that closest Thursday which would be the 24th. 

They didn't announce their earnings date until the 16th which is kinda late. I assume earnings reports could get messy especially for a lot of the HY companies. It is somewhat sloppy but such is the nature of these electronic pulls. It's actually terrifying how off bloomberg or factset can be with financial data. 
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That’s fair. I didn’t know they just announced it a few days ago. 
 

Was looking forward to the action tomorrow :kicksrock:

 
BassNBrew said:
Just sold a 1/3 of my XOM off.  It was up 4% on the day and 38% from purchase.  Trying to replenish cash.  Tried to get cute and didn't pick up add'l CYDY at the low and missed my BLMN exit opportunity.
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Energy stocks have been good to me too, I think there is a good chance stocks like XOM can be had cheaper.

 
For the buy and hold crew, I do agree with you.  I actually hadn't traded a single stock sans Amazon since the last crash and I only sold and required that because even the Amazons bulls were shaking the heads last year that it was likely overpriced at the time    Once this COVID situation dissipates, I'll be back in your camp of just holding mostly high quality stocks and a small percentage of speculative fun plays like CYDY.  There's just too much volatility and daily overreactions right now that can be exploited to pass up.  I'm pretty sure that will fade away in the near future.

 
Slapdash said:
Energy stocks have been good to me too, I think there is a good chance stocks like XOM can be had cheaper.
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I think your right which is why I sold some off.  That said, XOM is only currently at 50% of it's 52 week high.  I don't want to be on the outside looking in when it does take off.  

 
BassNBrew said:
LOL...thank you @Todem for the Bloomin' tip.  I know you didn't intend it as a trading vehicle, but it was a great call.  

In the last 3 weeks...

In at 6.35, out at 9.32, 47%

In at 8.31, out at 9.63, 16%

In at 8.40, out at 9.24, 10%

I think I might use the profits to buy some "more" Amazon
Click to expand...
I took that 50% plus gain.....still waiting for another entry point to flip that onion again. We will get one.....this whipsaw is far from over LOL. Glad I could help you profit on that.

 
BassNBrew said:
For the buy and hold crew, I do agree with you.  I actually hadn't traded a single stock sans Amazon since the last crash and I only sold and required that because even the Amazons bulls were shaking the heads last year that it was likely overpriced at the time    Once this COVID situation dissipates, I'll be back in your camp of just holding mostly high quality stocks and a small percentage of speculative fun plays like CYDY.  There's just too much volatility and daily overreactions right now that can be exploited to pass up.  I'm pretty sure that will fade away in the near future.
Click to expand...
It is a trader/stock pickers market for sure.

Make money money make money money@BassNBrew!!!

 
[icon] said:
Anectdotal news : 

Mark Cuban moving to Cash
Click to expand...
He can afford to. Wait....correction maybe he cannot afford not too. His entertainment business’s lost a #### ton of money. 

Anyway....he has plenty of mad money to use. Guy is ultra high net worth.  99% of us can’t afford to time the markets like that on that kind of scale. And it is a fools game long term. 

 
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stbugs said:
I am going by Yahoo. I was thinking 4/23 but I do recall it was a range with 4/23 as the start of the range and now it’s 4/30. I’ve used My Yahoo for a long time and it’s a nice place to create a single portfolio across accounts. Have to update it but it has all the articles link to each stock that Fidelity doesn’t have and even in Fidelity, I have to go account by account and even login with two different users (wife has Fidelity for 401k as well and stock plan account). Great that it’s all in one place but even then I can’t see across all at one time and also click on a stock to get news and numbers.

Anyone have a good site that has all current news and numbers and can link to your accounts more easily?
Click to expand...
I think most of the good aggregators like that cost money and are offered by financial planners. 

ETA: Not sure if Seeking Alpha does that with a Premium membership or not. 

 
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BassNBrew said:
For the buy and hold crew, I do agree with you.  I actually hadn't traded a single stock sans Amazon since the last crash and I only sold and required that because even the Amazons bulls were shaking the heads last year that it was likely overpriced at the time    Once this COVID situation dissipates, I'll be back in your camp of just holding mostly high quality stocks and a small percentage of speculative fun plays like CYDY.  There's just too much volatility and daily overreactions right now that can be exploited to pass up.  I'm pretty sure that will fade away in the near future.
Click to expand...
I do agree with this and have taken advantage but I am almost capped out right now. Loaded up on long-term bets rather than short-term. Really want some mgm though. 

 
stbugs said:
For the TTD guys I put limit orders in to sell at $234. 380 of my 500 shares. Was my biggest holding besides AMZN. I wasn’t comfortable anymore with how much I had. Made a nice chunk of change in a year, got at $170. Still like it a lot long term and if gets back down to $180 or lower I’d likely buy some more. 
Click to expand...
A couple bucks too soon but I feel better than $214 where it was yesterday and it was just way too much of my portfolio. Also, can never be mad at booking profit.

 
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Todem said:
He can afford to. Wait....correction maybe he cannot afford not too. His entertainment business’s lost a #### ton of money. 

Anyway....he has plenty of mad money to use. Guy is ultra high net worth.  99% of us can’t afford to time the markets like that on that kind of scale. And it is a fools game long term. 
Click to expand...
Except it’s not a long term game.  Nor do I believe that Cuban has likely ever in his life played this game and gone to all cash.  It’s a short term game where he’s betting the market is presently overvalued, and he wants to get in when it dives.  

Theres nothing ordinary about what we’re facing as it’s related to previous market collapses/uncertainty. Sure, historically you’re better setting and forgetting.  But I don’t think someone going cash at S&P 2800 is a fools game.  Tough to see a whole lot of near term upside from here.  And you’re right, Cuban can afford that gamble.

 
So...  I guess there is this NFL Draft thing starting up tomorrow and I'll have some rookie drafts then soon after.  I've been so locked into stocks these past few months I don't know if I can even name 20 rookies.  I might just play it safe and take AMZN in round 1, DIS in the 2nd.  Definitely going for the high upside steal of the draft in CYDY too.   

Since I've been piggy-backing off you all for great stock tips.  I might just have to piggy off Sigmond BLMN for the draft.

 
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Capella said:
I do agree with this and have taken advantage but I am almost capped out right now. Loaded up on long-term bets rather than short-term. Really want some mgm though. 
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That's pretty much where I'm at. Everything I have in my "fun" account I'm inclined to keep.  I can see selling on big gain days, buy in red, but mostly it's long term stuff.

 
stbugs said:
A couple bucks too soon but I feel better than $214 where it was yesterday and it was just way too much of my portfolio. Also, can never be mad at booking profit.
Click to expand...
TTD has had bigger swings than most.  I closed out my 7/18 put yesterday at over 30% profit, just didn't want to deal with pain of having to watch it swing up again.  Seems like this may be the norm for the short term.  So far 4/4 on cashing puts on TTD  and will likely look to open another one up at some point.  They are getting expensive but the gains have still been pretty good with some sharp swings.

Looks like SNAP had a good quarter which couldn't have hurt.  I don't like SNAP but they definitely had a little room to grow their userbase.  Mid March is when ad revs will start their decline.  It will be interesting to see what Facebook reports in a couple of weeks and if they give guidance going forward (which will not be good).

Saw a related article today about OTT/CTV spend, at least what Pixelate thinks the recent trend to be starting in March.  This will be the trend that affects TTD across all mediums for the next six months IMO

https://www.bakercityherald.com/coronavirus/national/programmatic-connected-tv-ott-ad-spend-drops-14-in-the-face-of-covid-19-hulu/article_5e1be801-9515-5d2e-ac74-8f40ecabbe67.html

Also another related article, Coca Cola cutting ad spend.  This should be the norm for any brands that have had a decline recently.

https://www.thedrum.com/news/2020/04/22/coca-cola-slams-brakes-ad-spend-there-limited-effectiveness-brand-marketing

News like this should keep coming IMO

 
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Anybody watching cnbc with chamath palihapitiya?  Dude is dropping knowledge bombs on Wapner again.   Scott keeps trying to counterpoint him and keeps getting destroyed. 

 
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