Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

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Thank you.  That was an excellent read.  My takeaway is that my "sure double up" can be balled into question.  That said, based on PE, sales, and the other financials, 50% should be reachable.

Just curious, how did you come across this.

Sorry just now seeing it. It's just some screen grabs of analysis that the Fidelity app provides for all stocks. I'm guessing lots of apps offer good stuff like that too? 

 

[BassNBrew]

DFS moved quick this morning.  Tried to get in under 33 and missed.  Added more at 33.50  

Very well done.  Congrats.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Surprised you are turning bullish.

What more did you want the Fed to do for the working class?  We pretty have BIG for the next two months with most people qualifying for roughly $1000 a week.

Buying junk debt in zombie companies isn't what I would call helping average Americans, just my .02. A good portion of the tools are backstopping the stock market, and therefore bailing out the most wealthy. Why don't they just cut middle class Americans checks? Not like I would get one, but it would be more beneficial for the average American than buying HYG.

I'm not bullish, I anticipate a collapse in the fall, but I decided trying to time this is a fool's errand and getting it all at once is a major risk. Hence, an autopilot program stretched over 18 months to get every penny in for the next expansion. 

ETA:

I'm undecided on 18 months or 12 months, but I started my autopilot Tuesday. 

 

[Random]

Buying junk debt in zombie companies isn't what I would call helping average Americans, just my .02. A good portion of the tools are backstopping the stock market, and therefore bailing out the most wealthy. Why don't they just cut middle class Americans checks? Not like I would get one, but it would be more beneficial for the average American than buying HYG.

I'm not bullish, I anticipate a collapse in the fall, but I decided trying to time this is a fool's errand and getting it all at once is a major risk. Hence, an autopilot program stretched over 18 months to get every penny in for the next expansion. 

ETA:

I'm undecided on 18 months or 12 months, but I started my autopilot Tuesday. 

what companies are you targeting?

 

[stbugs]

update?

Where are we at? I mean what’s the % now. Legit question. Also, glad you seem happy we are obviously not doing well. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

what companies are you targeting?

Already have a full position in GOLD

On my autopilot list includes:

OKTA, TTD, VZ, JPM, GS, DIS (patience here and smaller for the next 3 months, pain will be longer than anticipated), AMZN, NVDA, SHOP (changed my tune here), MA, MCD, NKE, HD, STWD (very risky), CGC (smaller), & CVS.

 

[Random]

Already have a full position in GOLD

On my autopilot list includes:

OKTA, TTD, VZ, JPM, GS, DIS (patience here and smaller for the next 3 months, pain will be longer than anticipated), AMZN, NVDA, SHOP (changed my tune here), MA, MCD, NKE, HD, STWD (very risky), CGC (smaller), & CVS.

Love that some of these are on @Todems list.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyone else jump in in STOR and SYF?  I remember taking with someone about SYF.

I took a position in SFY.  I've got in a little heavier than I would have like to have and was upside down until today.  I shifted some of that to DFS earlier today once I saw it was up 2% and DFS was down.  They should track together.  SYF is at 42% of it's 52 wk high, DFS now at 37%.

 

[Bluto Blutarsky]

Been following along for a while, lots of good info here, thanks. Anyone here have any info/opinion on GUSH?

 

[BassNBrew]

Been following along for a while, lots of good info here, thanks. Anyone here have any info/opinion on GUSH?

If you invested $5300 a year ago, it would be worth $31 today.  That's a little too volatile for my tastes.

 

[beef]

I sold some at 1.80 yesterday but still have 5700 shares. I think it probably goes way higher when the report gets released today   but who knows. 

Appreciate the heads up.  I dabbled a bit when it dropped to $2.  Nothing that will pay my mortgage this month, but maybe get a couple of Saturday night prime rib take outs.     

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Where are we at? I mean what’s the % now. Legit question. Also, glad you seem happy we are obviously not doing well. 

with the newest numbers, economists are estimating we are sitting between 15 and 20 percent

(already much higher than it was during the Great Recession)

 

[Sinn Fein]

Also, glad you seem happy we are obviously not doing well. 

eh?

I just think there were too many people who had blinders on in March - not you specifically, yours was the post I found - but it was a fairly widespread belief that this was a relatively small blip on the radar.  I think that was wishful thinking - then.  There were plenty of real world evidence to suggest this was going to be a big hit to the economy by mid-March.

A lot of people (including "experts" and other smart people) were either willfully ignoring the evidence, or did not really understand what was unfolding around the world.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

The new weekly total comes on top of 22 million Americans who had sought benefits in previous weeks, a volume that has overwhelmed state systems for processing unemployment claims. Economists estimate that the national unemployment rate sits between 15 and 20 percent, much higher than it was during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Depression was about 25 percent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/23/economy-coronavirus-unemployment/

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

eh?

I just think there were too many people who had blinders on in March - not you specifically, yours was the post I found - but it was a fairly widespread belief that this was a relatively small blip on the radar.  I think that was wishful thinking - then.  There were plenty of real world evidence to suggest this was going to be a big hit to the economy by mid-March.

A lot of people (including "experts" and other smart people) were either willfully ignoring the evidence, or did not really understand what was unfolding around the world.

markets are mostly ignoring so can't fault some folks in the stock thread for ignoring it.

 

[beef]

Grabbed a little TZA late in the day.  Just a gut feel.

Looks like I joined you.  Had a buy limit in for 41.50 and it hit.  

 

[BassNBrew]

WTI up 18.5% today and 40% in the last 8 days.  Sold half my position.  Thanks to the Footballbuy that recommended that one.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

for those playing around with gold, NUGT did its reorg. Seems to be moving upward (has been trending upward in the last week leading up to the reorg / reverse spit).

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

WTI up 18.5% today and 40% in the last 8 days.  Sold half my position.  Thanks to the Footballbuy that recommended that one.

What did you trade? USO? I think the consensus here was short it or stay the hell away. If you did well, god bless. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

A lot of people (including "experts" and other smart people) were either willfully ignoring the evidence, or did not really understand what was unfolding around the world.

They still are

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pence-says-u-s-will-be-prepared-if-second-coronavirus-wave-hits-11587580040

Vice President Mike Pence said the White House hopes the coronavirus epidemic can be “largely in the past” by early June.

ETA:

in other news, the FC42 household released a statement saying they hope to be worth $8 billion dollars by early June. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Looks like I joined you.  Had a buy limit in for 41.50 and it hit.  

I'm down 6.5% on it today.  I may dollar cost down later today.

 

[beef]

WTI up 18.5% today and 40% in the last 8 days.  Sold half my position.  Thanks to the Footballbuy that recommended that one.

Nice man.  I bailed on WTI too soon.  

Assuming W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) here and not West Texas.

 

[BassNBrew]

What did you trade? USO? I think the consensus here was short it or stay the hell away. If you did well, god bless. 

I bought at 2.50 and got out later that day for 2.8x.  The posts here scared me the heck out of that and quite honestly I had no idea what it was about until after I bought it.

 

[BassNBrew]

Nice man.  I bailed on WTI too soon.  

Assuming W&T Offshore, Inc. (WTI) here and not West Texas.

Yup...the W&T offshore.

 

[NREC34]

Appreciate the heads up.  I dabbled a bit when it dropped to $2.  Nothing that will pay my mortgage this month, but maybe get a couple of Saturday night prime rib take outs.     

Awesome. It could be really good if we get favorable news on this report coming out. 

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Yup...the W&T offshore.

Ah. I thought you meant West Texas. nm

 

[fantasycurse42]

FWIW, in the last 5 weeks, we've wiped out every job created since the Great Recession. 

I think we're going to move towards natural selection, shutdowns (maybe excluding a few spots like NYC) will end shortly, deaths will continue, life will go on in some strange manor until we have a vaccine. My guess, this is what the market is pricing in. The craziest part to me is the people I see protesting appear overweight, a decent percentage prob smoke and drink heavily... This makes for a bad combo and a terrible prognosis.

My best advice for anyone here (unrelated to stocks, but important to you know, live) based on my read of what the market is doing is to start improving your cardiovascular health and losing body fat ASAP. Obesity seams to be the biggest trigger to a negative outcome outside of the other key underlying pre-existing conditions. This is going to make its way through America and kill a lot of people. The market obviously doesn't care about death, that much we know for sure. 

 

[stbugs]

markets are mostly ignoring so can't fault some folks in the stock thread for ignoring it.

Not ignoring it for me, just thought whichever Trump advisor or senator (can’t recall) throwing out a 30% was for shock. Even with a huge wave of filings your article says 15-20%. That’s still historically huge but we’d have to almost double that to get to 30%. If we ever got to 30% the market couldn’t ignore it. I think the ignoring of it has more to do with the underlying assumption that the stimulus will handle it and everyone will be back working in the next few months.

Personally, I’ve built up a little more cash (yesterday, 1 day too early), because while that still leaves me at only 15% cash, I wanted some ammo if there’s another dip. At this point, even though I bought some in that bottom week I left my investments alone and due to AMZN I’m actually a little above where I was at the top on 2/20. That’s a bit scary to me because I really didn’t change much and the #### has actually hit the fan.

 

[stbugs]

Awesome. It could be really good if we get favorable news on this report coming out. 

What report and when? Just freed up a little cash yesterday, damn it. Might be willing to take a flier. CYDY worked out, LK didn’t LOL. I’m less of a day trader than some of these guys.

 

[NREC34]

What report and when? Just freed up a little cash yesterday, damn it. Might be willing to take a flier. CYDY worked out, LK didn’t LOL. I’m less of a day trader than some of these guys.

https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1253340435583340551?s=21

12:00 eastern time 

 

[sporthenry]

Getting our good morning unemployment stock buying bump.

This is becoming pretty standard. I closed my shorts on a small loss earlier this week. Had given back almost 15% of my massive gains, closed out only giving back 5%.

The Fed has backstopped the market, wish they would've backstopped America instead, but why bail out the working class when you can give to the uber wealthy and let everyone else feed off of their scraps? Knowing this, I had to adapt. Have a bucket of stocks on autopilot that I'm buying into over an 18 month period, basically an autobuy weekly. No emotion, no thinking, just buying companies for the long haul and DCA, especially since I think we're gonna collapse again in the fall.

Also, my top pick which I've touted for months has absolutely killed it (GOLD).

GLTA

I can't blame you. I probably wish I just sat in cash than getting whipsawed on longs and shorts. Probably end up in the same place but with much less risk. It does seem like this market is just here to break the bulls and the bears. I'll stick my head in the sand for a bit longer but at some point the market and economic reality have to converge. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

I can't blame you. I probably wish I just sat in cash than getting whipsawed on longs and shorts. Probably end up in the same place but with much less risk. It does seem like this market is just here to break the bulls and the bears. I'll stick my head in the sand for a bit longer but at some point the market and economic reality have to converge. 

These moves are highly unpredictable and there is so much risk out there.

By taking a longer timeframe (12 or 18 months, leaning 18, but can't make a decision), eliminating emotion, and just getting to average over the next year/year and a half, while I might not come out ahead as one buying the lows (which is impossible), I will make less mistakes and come out in a great position (I hope). 

 

[-OZ-]

DFS moved quick this morning.  Tried to get in under 33 and missed.  Added more at 33.50  

Thanks. I wasn't even looking at it, don't have any cash to buy with in that account today. Unless I sold some Jets or CYDY (probably won't)

 

[beef]

Thanks. I wasn't even looking at it, don't have any cash to buy with in that account today. Unless I sold some Jets or CYDY (probably won't)

Good call man.   It was like an instant market overreaction when it dropped 5% after the earnings report.    

Wish I would have submitted that after hours or premarket buy order when it was under 32.  Planning on holding this for a while though.   

 

[General Malaise]

Anyone else on the Uranium train????

We have a potentially big time catalyst for US tickers today, the NFWG report. 

UUUU URG UEC ENCUF are the USA ones I’m in. 

Started buying UUUU in the .90s. 

Im in some other Canadian, Africa, AUS companies as well but it’s American that could really fly today. 

lol....I am beyond reticent to ever recommend this POS commodity again, but it's true that there's a lotta buzz around it right now.  

IMO, if you want to play this, play the physical as best you can.  Uranium Participation Corp is the closest thing you'll get to a uranium ETF.  The miners are besieged with issues though they are best positioned to do well with leverage to higher prices.  

 

[NREC34]

I got out of uuuu. Don’t want to get greedy. Report is out and must’ve been priced in. Want to rebuy later though for the long haul. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Tankers are tanking today.

 

[BassNBrew]

I got out of uuuu. Don’t want to get greedy. Report is out and must’ve been priced in. Want to rebuy later though for the long haul. 

Just missed pulling the sell trigger at $2.27.  

 

[stbugs]

I got out of uuuu. Don’t want to get greedy. Report is out and must’ve been priced in. Want to rebuy later though for the long haul. 

Well that advice didn’t workout. Lost a couple hundred buying before the report. Oh well, wanted to have a little fun. My IRA so no biggie.

I didn’t see any reports. What did it even say?

 

[General Malaise]

There is still an ASSSSSSSSSSLOAD of uranium supply thanks to Japan.  If prices hit $40/LB miners will go right back to work producing more.  I would view this as a very short term trade and honestly, if weren't in it already, you might have missed the boat.  Play this pig at your own peril.  

 

[stbugs]

There is still an ASSSSSSSSSSLOAD of uranium supply thanks to Japan.  If prices hit $40/LB miners will go right back to work producing more.  I would view this as a very short term trade and honestly, if weren't in it already, you might have missed the boat.  Play this pig at your own peril.  

I know nothing about it. Spend about 20 minutes in it and out of it. Don’t think I’ll try it again.

Looking again, glad I did bail quick as soon as it was apparent whatever report it was didn’t help. Wasn’t going to do anything but we’ll the pop up or down quick. Already down even more than where I sold it.

 

[General Malaise]

I know nothing about it. Spend about 20 minutes in it and out of it. Don’t think I’ll try it again.

Looking again, glad I did bail quick as soon as it was apparent whatever report it was didn’t help. Wasn’t going to do anything but we’ll the pop up or down quick. Already down even more than where I sold it.

I'm just settling in - late night last night.  What I'm gathering is that the US Gov said it will incentivize domestic miners of uranium and rare earths to increase production so we don't have to rely on foreign imports. It's a nice sentiment, but consumers of these materials aren't going to just buy more expensive material to be patriotic.  It's great that the US is thinking about stockpiling critical metals, but the reality is that anytime prices rise, the US sells its stockpile to raise cash.  I don't know how this will be any different.

I'll get my head around it a little more as my brain clears some of the fog out.  I'm still skeptical that uranium has entered a new bull market but that's a skepticism that's been sharpened and biased by years of ball kicking.  Fukushima really  Fuked this metal.

 

[NREC34]

Well that advice didn’t workout. Lost a couple hundred buying before the report. Oh well, wanted to have a little fun. My IRA so no biggie.

I didn’t see any reports. What did it even say?

https://twitter.com/uraniumsir/status/1253352712210612226?s=21

I think this is what the market did not like about it.  Sorry if you lost some on it. 

 

[lod001]

Re: oil

My best friend works at hedge fund for one of the most famous oil traders in the world. Dude is on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc frequently. I used to trade it successfully on his advice. His honest opinion to me is that are much easier ways to make money than oil, I agree with that.

I think a lot of people sticking their hands out are going to find out this lesson the hard way. 

Hmm. APA up over 30% in a few days. That was pretty easy.

 

[stbugs]

https://twitter.com/uraniumsir/status/1253352712210612226?s=21

I think this is what the market did not like about it.  Sorry if you lost some on it. 

Lol, no worries. I lost way more cutting down my TTD shares too early (sold yesterday) because it was way too big of a holding. That said, I did keep 110 shares so that’s up still. This was just a quick shot in the dark. Sold a few minutes after so not much and it’s down 10%+ since I sold so that would have made it way worse.

 

[lod001]

Been following along for a while, lots of good info here, thanks. Anyone here have any info/opinion on GUSH?

Yeah, don't mes with crap like that. That terd 2x oil is not even beating APA AND it decays so you can't hold it. This is the easiest $ i've made since the dotcom bubble. I've lost 3 bets in the last 45 days out of 21 and 2 were 2 or 3x ETF and the other was a pot stock I gave up on.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Hmm. APA up over 30% in a few days. That was pretty easy.

Good luck making money in oil. Maybe take a stab at Natural Gas too

ETA:

It's the most volatile market out there, maybe excluding Chinese Iron Ore... Sure, you can catch it in the right direction and make good money, but you'll also get slaughtered going in the wrong direction. My advice (and it comes to me from someone who has single handily traded over 10% of the world's oil in a single day on numerous occasions) is to avoid something outside of your typical investing to avoid catastrophic losses (even if it means missing out on massive gains). This is playing with fire, period!

 

[beef]

https://twitter.com/uraniumsir/status/1253352712210612226?s=21

I think this is what the market did not like about it.  Sorry if you lost some on it. 

Nah, all good.  I only had $1k in took half back when I hit +10% so I'm averaged out OK.  Besides that news, the spike to 2.35 was really going to be calling out the short wolves.     

 

[cosjobs]

https://twitter.com/uraniumsir/status/1253352712210612226?s=21

I think this is what the market did not like about it.  Sorry if you lost some on it. 

finger.

you owe me a winner

 

[sporthenry]

Tankers are tanking today.

Yeah, think it's the contango trade reversing a bit. As differential between front month and outer months compress, the value of the tanker declines. Was wondering what was dragging my stuff down but I do look at it as a bit of a hedge on this market anyways. Should be money good but will go up more if market declines. 

I'm still up teens. Debating whether I chase the recent pull back. I just don't think contango has been figured out. What happens when they have to take possession of oil next month? Demand won't be back. Storage isn't unlimited. Supply is the big unknown.