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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

FreeBaGeL said:
Tankers taking a beating today.  Some bounce-back tomorrow?
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Seems like they overreact to the short-term contract. Storage build wasn't as bad but still not great. Earnings start next week. So chance to buy more for me. Between earnings and then the June contract settling on May 19th, I'd be holding until then. 

 
I know nothing of cruise lines, I don't like cruising, and I think it's stupid... But at some point, the people who like floating around the ocean on a petri dish will return... Who is the cruise company to own? Feel like @Todem covered this. 

 
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Random said:
So is HTZ going bankrupt like CCL did, or is this a sure thing?
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HTZ is pretty much a done deal. Missed a lease payment to preserve cash which is usually a tell tale sign. They also hired restructuring advisors which once that is leaked, usually means they're going to file or massively restructure. I'm sure the cruise lines are talking to restructuring firms but it usually isn't leaked until they really engage them. 

 
sporthenry said:
Seems like they overreact to the short-term contract. Storage build wasn't as bad but still not great. Earnings start next week. So chance to buy more for me. Between earnings and then the June contract settling on May 19th, I'd be holding until then. 
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Yeah the tankers have gotten mainstream so seems like people are basically treating them as inverse oil right now.  Oil has a decent day tankers go down.  Oil has a bad day tankers go up.  This is all irrespective of them raking in the cash either way. 

This also comes through in the hot name (NAT) seeing much bigger moves up than the tankers that are actually better positioned and better companies (EURN).

I just hope it's not gotten too meme-y at this point that it won't react appropriately based on the financials, which are good.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Im already holding as much as I want since the teens, so it’ll prob be unpleasant for me, but a good chance to get in if you’re not holding.
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If you want in on GOLD, I'd set 3 tranches; $25, $24, $22.50. Prob some pressure on the metal over the next few days... Suck in a few bears, then obliterate them.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I kn ow nothing of cruise lines, I don't like cruising, and I think it's stupid... But at some point, the people who like floating around the ocean on a petri dish will return... Who is the cruise company to own? Feel like @Todem covered this. 
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CCL 

Best balance sheet of all the cruise lines.  

But any of these companies as well as airlines can file for organized bankruptcy if they do not recover fast enough and who cares about the common stockholders. The last in line. 

But with funny money CCL would be my bet to emerge and recover the best. 

It has been shorted and covered too many times already to count. It is simply a casino out there in a lot of these travel and leisure stocks as well as restaurant stocks.

As irrational the market was on March 16th-23rd (best sale on stocks we have had in over 10 years) it is being equally irrational the past few weeks on the upside.

I expected by year end to be here. Not in one month. People don’t want to hear this, but this is again a typical pattern of a bear market. The Shock and Awe drop, the snap back rebound (aided by the bazooka known as the Fed) and then reality will set in over the next several months when the dust settles that a lot of small business are done permanently, some of the job losses are going to linger for a while, spending will drop, consumption will drop and then we will have some real forward guidance going into 2021 on the economy. I was buying for the very long term back in March. I don’t care about a second drop.....which will happen make no mistake. It will. 

People buying stocks right now better be thinking long long term. Because if your trading.....I am not seeing incredible value right now based on what is to come in the economy. 

But I guess common sense is being thrown out the window......because this market at this very moment.....makes no sense. There is no fundamental reason stocks should have rallied almost 30% off the bottom. 15%? Yeah.....reasonable. That is a natural thing in an oversold market. Now it is being overbought and we are seeing all the shorts covering as they are running scared from the Fed. 

I still maintain.....we close the year at this level we are at right now. So be ready for another dip. And the higher this keeps going right now....the deeper the retracement will be. 

But what do I know. 

Just stay long folks. You won’t go wrong doing that. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I kn ow nothing of cruise lines, I don't like cruising, and I think it's stupid... But at some point, the people who like floating around the ocean on a petri dish will return... Who is the cruise company to own? Feel like @Todem covered this. 
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I bot RCL last month at 25, it's been one of my best gains (83%) as of today.  Also got some CCL but sold it a couple of weeks ago for a small gain.  I chose RCL to hang on to and glad I did.  Not sure what the summer will bring but people do love their cruises.  Admittedly, I do not and have never been on a cruise.  Rather do an all-inclusive resort on land.  

 
Federal Reserve Press Conference from the year 2024:

While inflation is running rampant, we know raising rates will cause massive defaults. As such, we've found the best way to protect ourselves and create deflation is giving money directly to billionaires. Starting immediately, anyone with verifiable $1B in assets will start receiving government checks for $12mm per month in perpetuity. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Yeah the tankers have gotten mainstream so seems like people are basically treating them as inverse oil right now.  Oil has a decent day tankers go down.  Oil has a bad day tankers go up.  This is all irrespective of them raking in the cash either way. 

This also comes through in the hot name (NAT) seeing much bigger moves up than the tankers that are actually better positioned and better companies (EURN).

I just hope it's not gotten too meme-y at this point that it won't react appropriately based on the financials, which are good.
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Yeah, I just think people are too weary of everyone saying it's a trade. Which is a good thing but I was hoping for a 3-4 bagger based on some irrational moves. I mean DHT is going to print money and they're only up 50% from their YTD lows. Down 12% YTD. The amount of companies who are going to be burning money that have outperformed them is pretty crazy. 

I did throw some money in some nat gas names as an imperfect hedge today. Missed the early boat on them but only way contango reverses is more wells being shut in which should help nat gas. Hoping to win both sides though. 

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, I just think people are too weary of everyone saying it's a trade. Which is a good thing but I was hoping for a 3-4 bagger based on some irrational moves. I mean DHT is going to print money and they're only up 50% from their YTD lows. Down 12% YTD. The amount of companies who are going to be burning money that have outperformed them is pretty crazy. 

I did throw some money in some nat gas names as an imperfect hedge today. Missed the early boat on them but only way contango reverses is more wells being shut in which should help nat gas. Hoping to win both sides though. 
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What are the natural gas plays you jumped into?

 
[icon] said:
Yep. We've done a ton in the house and yard. At this point we're looking for more stuff to do. 
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Had two yards of soil blend trucked in which kept me busy the last two days.  Made a pretty good sized planter box (8x3x2) that ate up most of that good soil, but found other uses for the rest.  I want to buy some big slate pavers for a new path, but my wife is telling me to hold my horses.  I responded that for the first time ever we were financially rewarded for being irresponsible breeders and we should blow that loot on projects, but she's holding firm on groceries.  Pfffffft.

 
Steve Leisman from CNBC is such a tool.

Why aren't you doing QE? Da #### is he talking about? My friends want more free money!

 
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sporthenry said:
CRK, CNX, COG

I mean they've already run up a ton but think there is still some upside. I've also heard the Canadian guys could benefit from all the shale plays being shut in but didn't want to jump into that. 
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Canadian government is providing credit to its oil companies. Looks like the US is also looking to provide loans to "small oil producers". Something to keep an eye on if looking to jump into Canadian oil plays. I'm currently holding small positions in $SU and $CVE.

Natural gas players that I invested in were $SD (Kuppy position), $AR, and $RRC. Took some off the table after the recent run up.

 
Corporate lending facility going to be launched soon. Main street facility going to take some time. Not done quite as quickly. Go figure. 

 
Jayrok said:
I bot RCL last month at 25, it's been one of my best gains (83%) as of today.  Also got some CCL but sold it a couple of weeks ago for a small gain.  I chose RCL to hang on to and glad I did.  Not sure what the summer will bring but people do love their cruises.  Admittedly, I do not and have never been on a cruise.  Rather do an all-inclusive resort on land.  
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Man, cruises are GREAT!   First, you get to wait in a long line that makes TSA security look like a line go buy a Slurpee to board your floating petri dish.  Once you spend several hours under fluorescent lights to board, you can unwind in the hot tub with fun and sexy strangers from the midwest.  Since you got a smoking hot deal on the cruise, you're shown to your estate room by a perky Romanian gal who waits by your door with her hand out for a tip.  Get used to that.  Also get used to the scenic beauty of the vast ocean.  After you stare at grey skies and murky water for several hours, you'll probably develop a hunger from some terrific cruise line food.  Don't worry, feeding several thousand people is easy and if you like the Golden Corral, you're in heaven, man.  After ingesting 3 lbs of jello salad and meat product, you'll probably need to take a massive dump in your plush bathroom.  You might want to practice wiping your butt in a phone booth before you onboard.  At night, you might want to take in some entertainment.  Surely they have some live bands or hip DJs on board, right?  If for whatever reason they didn't make it to your ship, you'll probably love drunk people doing Karaoke for the next 7 nights.  There's always excursions to keep you entertained; nothing like pulling into port and rushing out to find more businesses that are only there because of tourism.  More hands out.  More lines to get back on the boat.  More metal detectors and security pat-downs to make sure you didn't buy in booze to sneak back into their boat.  Can't be having folks drinking and not paying through the nose for their watered down drinks and crappy beers.  

When you're all done; when the party is over and when you're gathering email addresses of the Clampetts, you get to settle your tab.  You remember the debit card they gave you at the start?  Each time you used that for anything, it was racking up dollar dollar bills, yo.  Bend over, lube up, it's not the parting gift you were hoping for.   

 
beef said:
Same here.  Not just getting old projects done either, I'm adding projects to my list faster than the Fed can print money.  
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Challenge accepted.

lod001 said:
Biotech reminds me of the roulette wheel. Puts chips on a bunch of BIO stocks and hope they hit at the same time hope one doesn't announce a failure of it trials.
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Yep. I just bet on SBIO. :shrug:

 
commoncents said:
Canadian government is providing credit to its oil companies. Looks like the US is also looking to provide loans to "small oil producers". Something to keep an eye on if looking to jump into Canadian oil plays. I'm currently holding small positions in $SU and $CVE.

Natural gas players that I invested in were $SD (Kuppy position), $AR, and $RRC. Took some off the table after the recent run up.
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Yeah, my buddy who was more directly covering energy kept bringing up the government support. No idea what the canadian balance sheets look like but that was my fear, US government will just provide similar support. 

 
[icon] said:
Best tanker plays again? Sorry I know it's been covered here a ton. 

 
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I own a basket of STNG/DSSI/EURN/DHT/INSW/TNK/FRO with some calls on NAT.

I've been moving my basket to a heavier weighting to product tankers from crude tankers. Here's a snapshot of the current spot rates. Spot rates

The LR2 rates are higher than the VLCC rates! And the LR1 rates aren't far behind. Pretty much unheard of. Of the TANKERZ in my basket, STNG, DSSI and TNK have exposure to product tankers.

 
General Malaise said:
Man, cruises are GREAT!   First, you get to wait in a long line that makes TSA security look like a line go buy a Slurpee to board your floating petri dish.  Once you spend several hours under fluorescent lights to board, you can unwind in the hot tub with fun and sexy strangers from the midwest.  Since you got a smoking hot deal on the cruise, you're shown to your estate room by a perky Romanian gal who waits by your door with her hand out for a tip.  Get used to that.  Also get used to the scenic beauty of the vast ocean.  After you stare at grey skies and murky water for several hours, you'll probably develop a hunger from some terrific cruise line food.  Don't worry, feeding several thousand people is easy and if you like the Golden Corral, you're in heaven, man.  After ingesting 3 lbs of jello salad and meat product, you'll probably need to take a massive dump in your plush bathroom.  You might want to practice wiping your butt in a phone booth before you onboard.  At night, you might want to take in some entertainment.  Surely they have some live bands or hip DJs on board, right?  If for whatever reason they didn't make it to your ship, you'll probably love drunk people doing Karaoke for the next 7 nights.  There's always excursions to keep you entertained; nothing like pulling into port and rushing out to find more businesses that are only there because of tourism.  More hands out.  More lines to get back on the boat.  More metal detectors and security pat-downs to make sure you didn't buy in booze to sneak back into their boat.  Can't be having folks drinking and not paying through the nose for their watered down drinks and crappy beers.  

When you're all done; when the party is over and when you're gathering email addresses of the Clampetts, you get to settle your tab.  You remember the debit card they gave you at the start?  Each time you used that for anything, it was racking up dollar dollar bills, yo.  Bend over, lube up, it's not the parting gift you were hoping for.   
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Oh man, those pics are crazy.  My in-laws love to cruise and we have some good friends that essentially keep lines in business with the amount of cruises they do a year.  They used to try to get us to go with them.  NO THANKS!  I have no desire to be on one of those ships.  My wife is a little claustrophobic and you couldn't get her on one of those ships for anything.   They stopped asking us several months ago.  That said, I don't mind making a few thousand bucks off of them during these strange times.  

 
General Malaise said:
Man, cruises are GREAT!   First, you get to wait in a long line that makes TSA security look like a line go buy a Slurpee to board your floating petri dish.  Once you spend several hours under fluorescent lights to board, you can unwind in the hot tub with fun and sexy strangers from the midwest.  Since you got a smoking hot deal on the cruise, you're shown to your estate room by a perky Romanian gal who waits by your door with her hand out for a tip.  Get used to that.  Also get used to the scenic beauty of the vast ocean.  After you stare at grey skies and murky water for several hours, you'll probably develop a hunger from some terrific cruise line food.  Don't worry, feeding several thousand people is easy and if you like the Golden Corral, you're in heaven, man.  After ingesting 3 lbs of jello salad and meat product, you'll probably need to take a massive dump in your plush bathroom.  You might want to practice wiping your butt in a phone booth before you onboard.  At night, you might want to take in some entertainment.  Surely they have some live bands or hip DJs on board, right?  If for whatever reason they didn't make it to your ship, you'll probably love drunk people doing Karaoke for the next 7 nights.  There's always excursions to keep you entertained; nothing like pulling into port and rushing out to find more businesses that are only there because of tourism.  More hands out.  More lines to get back on the boat.  More metal detectors and security pat-downs to make sure you didn't buy in booze to sneak back into their boat.  Can't be having folks drinking and not paying through the nose for their watered down drinks and crappy beers.  

When you're all done; when the party is over and when you're gathering email addresses of the Clampetts, you get to settle your tab.  You remember the debit card they gave you at the start?  Each time you used that for anything, it was racking up dollar dollar bills, yo.  Bend over, lube up, it's not the parting gift you were hoping for.   
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I'd like to see hear more about drunk people doing karaoke

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I can't even figure out how to read that daily chart.
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:shrug:  I don't try to read the daily charts.  This has been a long term hold for me.  It hasn't grown all that much in the last few years. But it's one of those ETFs, along with QCLN I just like owning.

 
General Malaise said:
 But my god, I can't imagine all the food servers, baristas, bartenders who racked up heavy credit card debt before and after losing their jobs being able to make payments on that unsecured debt.  
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Don't worry, they are doing better now than they were before 

 
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