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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)

beef said:
Sorry to anyway that got scared off CYDY with that early drop.  But man, I f'n loved that!  Just seemed so predictable with some of the reports over the weekend, and at some point the buyers would push back hard.  Kept lowering my limit on the way down.  Could see the action starting to shift to buyers as it danced below 2.60 and seemed like the right time to lock in.  
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It almost seems like there is a team of people manipulating the heck out of the share price making a ton of money buying and selling on these swings.

 
sporthenry said:
Agree. I mean it almost seems priced better than perfection. Like a quick reopening, V-shaped recovery and a Fed stimulus to boot. When you look at it probability wise, it seems like more downside / risk than reward. I can't help but think in 3-6 months from now, I'll be kicking myself for being long anything and wondering why I didn't double down some shorts here. 

To your point, the big wildcard is the trillions from the Fed and their willingness to spend whatever. But when you read between the lines of Buffett, Powell or even a lot of corporate actions (i.e. every company raising debt), the people closest to the companies/economy seem to think it's pretty bad. There was a lot of insider buying a few weeks ago but haven't heard of a lot of notable buying lately. Powell more or less asking for more money or fiscal stimulus wasn't likely so he could prop up the market more. What's interesting is that none of the Fed buying of securities has started in terms of corporate buying, main street lending, etc. They've reopened the credit markets so that is good but I suspect the market is still pricing in the effect once these programs take effect (HYG still trading 1.8% above NAV, which is historically high but not the 3% plus from when it was announced). And the Fed has actually slowed QE down to $40bn / week in Treasuries from $50 bn last week and a peak of $75bn. 
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I disagree slightly on the first point- if we had a quick reopening (with no setbacks) and a V-shaped recovery I feel like we'd be making new highs if we added the stimulus on top of that (I don't think that's even a possibility though). I do think we'd be at lower levels than the previous lows right now if they never stepped in.

Totally agree that the r/r skews to the downside, but again, the Fed. It makes way more "sense" for the market to be much lower than this, fundamentals are crap, but the Fed and central governments are trying to put a tourniquet on the bleeding. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the economy is awful right now, and it seems like it's going to stay that way for a long time. These partial reopenings really aren't going to move the economic needle much- don't mean to sound crass, but Disney being open for one day probably has a bigger economic impact than all of the mom and pop businesses that have (partially) opened combined, and Disney isn't opening up anytime soon.

But, again, no idea how to price in the Fed, both right now and when we get on the other side of this. No one has ever seen this much central bank intervention before, nor have we seen what's going to happen if/when it's all unwound- we are literally flying blind.

 
sporthenry said:
Well appreciate the update and you sharing in my frustrations. Perhaps as a bond investor, I'm too used to management screwing investors over but I am still a little skeptical because as you say, I'e never seen anyone do anything that selfless. I mean maybe he took some proverbial chips off the table at the same time which I'd probably find more believable. Helps pay the bills but maybe locks in a 6 or low 7 figure pay day at the same time. Perhaps it is just another move by management who doesn't understand how this stuff would seem to the market. 
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Very inexperienced CEO who doesn't know the first thing about IR or institutional perception.  That said, the market cap was ~$150MM 6 months ago.

 
caustic said:
What could go wrong?

CNBC Now @CNBCnow

JUST IN: Carnival Cruise Line says it will begin to phase-in cruises again starting August 1 with eight of its ships leaving from Miami, Port Canaveral and Galveston.
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I bet people are already lining up.  Not joking.  I seriously think they will book immediately

Oh and nice tip.  Threw some in there as soon as you posted and saw it was still down 3% today

 
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Congrats to all who bought CYDY earlier today.  I still have not sold a share and am in it for the long run.

I think the stock acts really well given all of the negative news and the ongoing short attack.  Adam Feuerstein is a horrible human being and he should be recognized as someone who is actively trying to derail a company with a legitimate solution for COVID-19.

 
chet said:
Congrats to all who bought CYDY earlier today.  I still have not sold a share and am in it for the long run.

I think the stock acts really well given all of the negative news and the ongoing short attack.  Adam Feuerstein is a horrible human being and he should be recognized as someone who is actively trying to derail a company with a legitimate solution for COVID-19.
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Agree, I was holding out for 2.40 to add more, congrats to those that added in the 2.60 range.

 
chet said:
Congrats to all who bought CYDY earlier today.  I still have not sold a share and am in it for the long run.

I think the stock acts really well given all of the negative news and the ongoing short attack.  Adam Feuerstein is a horrible human being and he should be recognized as someone who is actively trying to derail a company with a legitimate solution for COVID-19.
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This is very true.  He's done it on multiple occasions.  In regards to the stock market one of the very worst people out there.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I bet people are already lining up.  Not joking.  I seriously think they will book immediately

Oh and nice tip.  Threw some in there as soon as you posted and saw it was still down 3% today
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Will absolutely hit their capacity. Probably within a few hours of being posted. 

 
The short attack didn't last as long as some may have thought.  I feel fortunate to grab another small chunk at $2.70.  Really would be great if the company can get up-listed out of the OTC world.  

 
Feurenstein may not be the only person to write a hit piece today. Would be smart if what this mystery writer is saying is true if NP would validate it.

Also being inexperienced in these matters is not a great excuse, time to get some good advisors.

 
caustic said:
What could go wrong?

CNBC Now @CNBCnow

JUST IN: Carnival Cruise Line says it will begin to phase-in cruises again starting August 1 with eight of its ships leaving from Miami, Port Canaveral and Galveston.
Click to expand...
I'm short the cruise lines and honestly don't know how this works. I mean, what would the liability on this be, knowingly opening up amid all this? I haven't seen anything about how they plan on fixing the ventilation issue. Maybe they get lucky and the thing dies down enough in the summer to have a few cruises work. 

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Feurenstein may not be the only person to write a hit piece today. Would be smart if what this mystery writer is saying is true if NP would validate it.

Also being inexperienced in these matters is not a great excuse, time to get some good advisors.
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Seeking Alpha

I couldn't agree more with the above post.  Why not mention this move on the shareholders' call on Friday and then issue an 8K?  I can't go into too much detail but I was asked by several large shareholders to speak to the CEO over the weekend.  For a reason I can't discuss, I wasn't able to call him but I wanted to.

 
djmich said:
Agree, I was holding out for 2.40 to add more, congrats to those that added in the 2.60 range.
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When I'm expecting high, volatile action I like to watch candle charts at the most micro level.  Have another window open watching live bid/ask prices and sizes, and my limit order ready to submit.  As the red candles start to shrink and get really small is when I'll finalize my limit price.  Usually set the limit 1-2% above the ask to make sure I don't get caught chasing.  Doesn't always work finding the tops/bottoms, but gives me an idea when the shift may start to happen. 

Others do anything like this or have a certain system that works for you?  

 
eoMMan said:
:shrug:

Are they still "dopes" if they got a great price and have several months to get a full refund if they change their mind?
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Yes. If you think going on a cruise any time this summer will be a good idea, you're a dope.

I wouldn't go on a cruise for free this summer. Not worth the risk.

 
The cruise thing is a total disconnect for me. Admittedly, I’m not a cruise guy, but aren’t there still ships at sea with sick people on them? You couldn’t pay me to get on one of those Petrie dishes now or in the not so near future. 

 
TLEF316 said:
Yes. If you think going on a cruise any time this summer will be a good idea, you're a dope.

I wouldn't go on a cruise for free this summer. Not worth the risk.
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Okay, now you're saying Summer....I thought you were talking about Carnival taking bookings for 2021.

I agree.  Not smart booking a Summer cruise right now (and you most likely aren't entitled to any sort of refund being that it's so soon).

 
Man In The Box said:
The cruise thing is a total disconnect for me. Admittedly, I’m not a cruise guy, but aren’t there still ships at sea with sick people on them? You couldn’t pay me to get on one of those Petrie dishes now or in the not so near future. 
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Last "cruise" comment from because this thread should go back to stock picks, but I've been on about a dozen cruises and haven't gotten sick on a single one.  Same goes for my wife.

Wash hands, use hand sanitizer, etc.....you'll be okay 99% of the time.

 
beef said:
When I'm expecting high, volatile action I like to watch candle charts at the most micro level.  Have another window open watching live bid/ask prices and sizes, and my limit order ready to submit.  As the red candles start to shrink and get really small is when I'll finalize my limit price.  Usually set the limit 1-2% above the ask to make sure I don't get caught chasing.  Doesn't always work finding the tops/bottoms, but gives me an idea when the shift may start to happen. 

Others do anything like this or have a certain system that works for you?  
Click to expand...
I mostly look at past resistance/support levels, key mental levels (like 2.50 or 3.00) and fibonnaci %'s.  On a security with more volume I'd more micro manage the buy/sell based on candles as you highlighted but not sure how well works for a OTC.  But on the 5min candles you were spot on what they were showing.

 
eoMMan said:
Okay, now you're saying Summer....I thought you were talking about Carnival taking bookings for 2021.

I agree.  Not smart booking a Summer cruise right now (and you most likely aren't entitled to any sort of refund being that it's so soon).
Click to expand...


Yeah, my original response was in reference to this tweet that someone posted.....

What could go wrong?

CNBC Now @CNBCnow

JUST IN: Carnival Cruise Line says it will begin to phase-in cruises again starting August 1 with eight of its ships leaving from Miami, Port Canaveral and Galveston.

To me, getting on a boat in August would be absolute insanity. I'm not a cruise guy regardless, (I'd rather just go to a nice resort)  but I could see an argument for taking one NEXT year. I wouldn't, but i guess I understand why someone would book one if they got a great deal (and thought they could get a refund)

 
stbugs said:
My whole portfolio is green nicely even with CYDY weighing it down a bit. Probably because I got bent over on Friday!
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What did you get bent over on Friday, if you don't mind me asking? Seems like most stuff down today was down Friday. I got bent over early last week but made most back Friday and today. 

 
Tanker earnings start tomorrow with DHT. Looks like they're up 5-10% across the board. I nibbled some more this morning. Probably over filled and trying to make up for missing the bottom in some other stuff. Earnings should be great but who knows what the reaction will be. 

 
sporthenry said:
I'm short the cruise lines and honestly don't know how this works. I mean, what would the liability on this be, knowingly opening up amid all this? I haven't seen anything about how they plan on fixing the ventilation issue. Maybe they get lucky and the thing dies down enough in the summer to have a few cruises work. 
Click to expand...


TLEF316 said:
Yes. If you think going on a cruise any time this summer will be a good idea, you're a dope.

I wouldn't go on a cruise for free this summer. Not worth the risk.
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Literally our situation and answer.

We have a make a wish trip coming (daughter had a bone marrow transplant last year) and had planned on a cruise originally over spring break, then in June.  I'm not big on cruises anyway but figure once in a lifetime deal. Before COVID hit stateside I tell the wife we need to switch away from the cruise, she didn't want to. Long story short, I got adamant about it and eventually the doctors even told her not "delay" but "absolutely not this year" even though she's fully recovered, no different at this point than any of us. Our doctors and nurses at St Jude's are all telling everyone (not just patients but their friends, etc) to stay away from cruises until next year, if then. 

I'll listen to our doctors, but if others want to pay to sit on a confined cesspool, have at it. 

That said, we're planning Disney in November. Hopefully the park is doable then.

 
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The following post should be ignored by nearly every one of you.  With that said - in looking over my charts it seems like we are nearing another point (let's say in the next 4 weeks) where I'll be taking another long position in $GYPR.

 
Bought some Amazon this morning along with otherwise moving to a slightly more conservative portfolio. (We're like 15% bonds now)

 
The Lost One said:
Right but he didn't like any but DAL and I believe he bought into that one. 

ETA - I just looked he had it listed as one of his bigger gambles along with

CCL

FUN

WYNN

CHDN
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I never bought into any of the big gamble stocks. I just like them for those with an appetite for that and willing to lose all their money in those type of companies. Those were IMO the strongest balance sheet stocks in Hotels, amusement parks, paramutuals, crusielines, airlines. I said at some point I may enter those particular stocks. I still to this day have not. And for good reason. GLPI was one of my more spicer buys and it has done great.

Don't start posting false information about what I have bought. Especially when I have given you some feedback to you via PM in trying to help you out a little.

Not good form. 

I even told you.....your downside in stocks is losing every penny you put into a company. You have to be willing to lose it all if you buy any stock. There is zero guarantees in this game man. At one point in history Apple....the mighty Apple was on the verge of going bye bye. 

Stocks are not FDIC insured. And contrary to popular opinion....government bailouts to public companies can only do so much. They can all still file for organized chapter 11 and stay in business. Common stock carries highest risk/reward on the totem pole in the investing universe.  

So for those keeping score.....I have not yet put a penny into airlines and cruise stocks. 

I made a quick trade in MGM, TXRH and BLMN. And will again I am sure.

The master list above the high risk picks.....we are 90% invested into those names since March 16th-23rd. 

Nibbled in CAT a few weeks aback at 113ish (down right now a little). 

That is it. 

Anyway. So far we are getting the slow bleed stairs on the way down type of selling. I am leary of the machines/algorithm type of violent trading as well and all it takes is a breach of a level and off they go. The machines take over short term and we get a violent rip down. 

Hopefully we stay in the more measured slow burn down so we can pick accordingly and not start up fear and anxiety again.

 
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siffoin said:
The following post should be ignored by nearly every one of you.  With that said - in looking over my charts it seems like we are nearing another point (let's say in the next 4 weeks) where I'll be taking another long position in $GYPR.
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I went in pretty good on CEF over the last few trading days.  

What is GYPR (maybe a gold option?)?

 
siffoin said:
The following post should be ignored by nearly every one of you.  With that said - in looking over my charts it seems like we are nearing another point (let's say in the next 4 weeks) where I'll be taking another long position in $GYPR.
Click to expand...
did you spell it right?

 
siffoin said:
The following post should be ignored by nearly every one of you.  With that said - in looking over my charts it seems like we are nearing another point (let's say in the next 4 weeks) where I'll be taking another long position in $GYPR.
Click to expand...
Last week may have been a good time...

 
sporthenry said:
What did you get bent over on Friday, if you don't mind me asking? Seems like most stuff down today was down Friday. I got bent over early last week but made most back Friday and today. 
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Amazon, TTD, Roku, APPN, MDB, SHOP, ETSY, AYX, OKTA and ZS are the ones that were down Friday and up today. I have a bunch of others but these are the ones that have me green today and had me bent over.

You did well on Friday if you were up because the the market was down a lot (3% for S&P). Early last week I was doing awesome. Friday I gave back a lot of what I was up compared to S&P. 

 
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