Big League Chew
Footballguy
ooo lordy
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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There will be more
Jayrok
Footballguy
Leronlimab is a huge competitor that can eat into Gilead's billion dollar revenue from HIV. Wouldn't be out of the left field to wonder if they'll do what they can to keep this new competitor out of the picture. Their funding for lobbying has significantly increased since late last year. Coincidence? maybe. Coronavirus is a new arena where remdesivir was touted by the WH and Fauci. Now word is getting out that remdesivir isn't doing as great of job as first thought, plus some report unwanted side effects. Add to that articles showing promise of leronlimab's results in critical covid patients. New trials ordered.ericttspikes said:
Gilead is nervous about CytoDyn's entry and potential FDA approval in the fight against HIV. And for good reason. If leronlimab is successful at saving lives from covid-19, would/could that be a catalyst to fast track FDA approval for HIV and cancer, or at least give them reason to speed up the process? Would Gildean or associates hire people to write hit pieces? I don't know. But money talks and people hate losing money. Can't underestimate the power of corruption in DC or the market. My opinion.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
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Capella
Footballguy
Trump today so no more stimulus. Posturing?lod001 said:OK ladies. Bernie, Kamala and some Ed Markey guy have introduced the bill that gives each of us low income citizens, $2000 a month, until this runs its course.
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1258778102160936960
Now I can see the market rising bigly on this hoping to suck in much of that extra $2000 we have at inflated stock prices. I mean, mine will go right into the market.
Jayrok
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Yeah, that's the firm that lists an OK address that shows an abandoned lot on Google maps.Bob Sacamano said:
beef
Footballguy
Noticed that too. Village well right there too. Dirty bastards probably tampering with the water supply for another case.sporthenry
Footballguy
I mean, invest in NCLH at your own caution. I actually thought this thing would pop more after the financing. Full disclosure. Am short, own a few NCLH 13 calls that expire today. Was hoping for a short squeeze. The fact it hasn't seems like a bad sign to me.guru_007 said:
But a few quibbles. Every deal has to be oversubscribed. If it wasn't, it'd be impossible to get done. Now I'm sure parts of this deal were 'heavily' oversusbscribed. I mean 12.5% for secured debt that is secured by the actual ships and private islands seems pretty sweet. I'm not sure how much secured capacity they have remaining but their unsecured debt is trading at $60 (16%) which probably means they'd have something like an 18% or 20% borrowing rate for unsecured debt. You can argue either way on the deal. Terms seem onerous but raised $2bn+. PE involvement is likely positive on the convert side as they wouldn't do a convert if they didn't expect the company to survive but they also probably think they can decent recovery in a bankruptcy so hedged their bets. Can look at the small equity portion as not diluting existing holders or inability to raise more.
I mean the thing that most aren't acknowledging is that these companies are absolutely destroying their balance sheets. NCLH has increased it's debt load by 50%. By my count, they lost ~$8bn of market cap since this started and added $3bn in debt. Ignoring cash for the time being since the big unknown is how much of this cash they have to burn. Their debt plus equity (EV excl. cash) has only declined 25% since the start of the year. They also increased their interest expense by ~50% (~$135bn) and that isn't including any interest from the PIK notes. They expect 1Q EBITDA to be $5-$25mn with interest $69mn. That quarterly interest will increase by $33mn and this was a quarter when the impact wasn't even fully felt.
At the end of the day, we're all just gambling, I mean investing, on the reopening. I'm short these reopening stocks. Cruises spread COVID so easily. Passenger screening for asymptomatic individuals is impossible. One sick person causes the whole ship to get stuck at sea again? I would hope they're going to be better adept at handling patients but unless I hear they re-engineered their ventilation system, I'm pretty confident that this thing will pop back up again on cruises. At the very least, if you're going to invest in the cruise line, I'd at least go for quality. Sure, NCLH is down 75% from its highs vs CCL and RCL only down 60-65% but NCLH could be dead money even in a rebound as they have to de-lever.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
As it should.lod001 said:
Gubment caused this mess, gubment needs to clean this mess
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
akalod001 said:OK ladies. Bernie, Kamala and some Ed Markey guy have introduced the bill that gives each of us low income citizens, $2000 a month, until this runs its course.
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1258778102160936960
Now I can see the market rising bigly on this hoping to suck in much of that extra $2000 we have at inflated stock prices. I mean, mine will go right into the market.
Universal Basic Income
"until it runs its course," of course....
Guess that's one way to restoke the consumption fire
No ####. Married couples get $4k plus $2k per kid. So $120k a year for a family of 3? So ####### stupid. These people will never go back to work and will. My family gets nothing because we make just over that? That’s BS. Not much difference between people making $120k a year and $140k.Bob Sacamano said:
How about you just bump up unemployment? Giving a couple making $240k a bump of $120k isn’t helping.
I get all of that and I certainly wasn't endorsing a buy of NCLH (unfortunately I already have some).
However, every deal is not oversubscribed. And point taken that their balance sheet is getting decimated, but that is to be expected as they have had ZERO revenue for 6 weeks now. How many companies would not need to raise capital without a penny coming in for half a quarter? Furthermore, their short term prospects of Q2 and Q3 look about the same, yet the fact they were able to raise so much capital is pretty astonishing. It's great if a bond pays 12%, but guess what happens if the company goes bankrupt?
I just really thought it was staggering the fact that they were able to get so much cash. CCL had to sell a stake to the Saudi's. At least they could use these cruise ships to store oil during the next price war.
djmich
Footballguy
joker
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
If the deal isn't oversubscribed, it can't get done. It is just semantics but I love hearing talking heads say a debt deal is oversubscribed. They all are. It is the level of oversubscription that matters. It is just a pet peeve anytime someone says a deal is oversubscribed to highlight demand. I suppose if they downsize it, you could argue it wasn't oversubscribed.
But actually a secured bond usually still pays interest during bankruptcy. At worse, they'll likely get their money back. Being secured by those assets, they're likely over collateralized. So if the company goes bankrupt, it isn't like debt holders are left holding the bag. You just have a bunch of distressed funds that now own a private island.
caustic
Footballguy
100%, the GOP isn’t interested in any more stimulus at this point. $2k/month definitely isn’t happening.
We are transitioning to a new economy. 
That's the latest reasoning for the rise of the market.
I'm wondering why we waited for a virus to make this magical transformation. What were we waiting for? The stock market is rocketing upward on the worst unemployment levels any of us have seen. Imagine this new economy when things are going good? Dow will be at like 100000. S&P at like 25000. NAZ will hit 100000000000000.
That's the latest reasoning for the rise of the market.I'm wondering why we waited for a virus to make this magical transformation. What were we waiting for? The stock market is rocketing upward on the worst unemployment levels any of us have seen. Imagine this new economy when things are going good? Dow will be at like 100000. S&P at like 25000. NAZ will hit 100000000000000.
Jayrok
Footballguy
This just seems bizarre. Hard to believe a lawsuit would result because of the context of a word used. CYDY submitted the final two parts (clinical, and the CMC (chemistry, manufacturing and controls) portions of its BLA) on April 27. The PR called it their "Completed Biologics License Application (BLA) to the FDA for Leronlimab as a Combination Therapy for Highly Treatment Experienced HIV Patients." IOW, this completes their submission to the FDA for the BLA for its HIV indication.
The FDA replies that they need additional information, clinic datasets, because of some datasets that were provided in the BLA package were insufficient. CYDY then releases other PR updates for May 4, 6 and May 7 where they include the statement "We would like to provide an update that the Biologics License Application (BLA) for Leronlimab as a Combination Therapy for Highly Treatment Experienced HIV Patients will be considered completed after the clinical datasets are submitted on May 11, 2020." This statement is in the section titled About Leronlimab (PRO 140) and BLA Submission for the HIV Combination Therapy, of each PR.
It doesn't mean that FDA approval is competed... just that their submission package for BLA will be completed, unless the FDA has other comments they'd have to address.
They submitted the application. FDA reviewed and added comments and asked for dataset update. They plan to have this update addressed on May 11, which is Monday. Then resubmit the package. It will again be reviewed by the FDA and if satisfied, the BLA will be complete (nothing more needed from Cydy).
The Adam F column claimed NP admitted to misleading investors... what? Where is this admission? How did NP deceive shareholders with this sequence of events? They keep shareholders and the public updated with every press release by including their intention to resubmit the updated BLA package.
The scare of pending legal action or potential lawsuits cause damage, for sure. Would law firms really pursue something like this? The company never told shareholders that the BLA was approved and completed by the FDA. They just said they submitted a completed Biologics License Application (BLA). It was until the FDA returned for additional information. How is this deceitful?
All just to instill fear and induce selling? SP dropped a little enabling some of us to buy more shares then back up to where it opened this morning.
sporthenry
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
I just can't do it. TVIX anyway. Been watching all afternoon, mid 160's, but I'm not fighting the Fed on the short-term.
BigJohn
Footballguy
We may not see $2k/mo, but I can't imagine we don't see anything. Election coming up, plus the Fed is barking at Congress, telling them to get something done. They're ready to turn the $ printer up.
cosjobs
Footballguy
definitely uncomfortable, but not capitulating. I've been buying it all the way down.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah we only hand out trillions to corporations so they can give executives bonuses and buyback stocks.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Using common sense in this bizarro world is probably pointless but, my thoughts are that there won’t be any more stimulus for the average Joe as long as the market keeps climbing. If there is a week where the Dow plummets 2000 points, all bets are off.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
This may not be a big deal to some but they did rush to put out news before it was actually completed. Headline from their press release "CytoDyn Submits Completed Biologics License Application (BLA) to the FDA for Leronlimab as a Combination Therapy for Highly Treatment Experienced HIV Patients"
If Im putting mock data in an application, not sure I would use the word completed, because all parties know its not complete until the real data gets in there.
They did this the same week that they promised that Patterson would be published in a prestigious journal (Friday, still hasnt happened) and the same week that NP sold off those shares.
From an outsider this looks weird and considering the amount of fraudulent companies there are that do pull these kind of shenanigans, that's why they are getting attention.
NP might be Mother Teresa and is just clueless to know how business operates and how he will be scrutinized, hopefully that's the case.
I'm not saying they have done anything nefarious, i still own a good amount of shares so Im buying the story at this point but I can see why someone else will not.
I don't think a lawsuit is worthy just bad press that they dont need
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It’s still stupid. People getting $10k a month (family of 4) while employed is ridiculous. Give $2k per month (or a supplement to unemployment to get to $2k) to everyone who’s been laid off is fine. How does is stimulate anything if the family is unaffected and can’t buy anything? Either give it to everyone or just to unemployed who need the money to make up for what they are missing. Don’t give it to people who don’t need it and artificially cut it off. $2k per month per person and per child is ridiculous.
caustic
Footballguy
It certainly doesn’t make a lot of sense with upcoming elections, but the GOP really seems to be digging in its heels right now. Mcconnell suggested states & localities should declare bankruptcy instead of getting federal help, Mnuchin said talks on another stimulus bill are “officially closed,” and Trump also said there’s no need for a phase 4. Maybe that’ll change as we get closer to November with double digit unemployment.
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Insoxicated
While I'll never turn down free money, put me in the "it's ridiculous" camp.
Let's help businesses (not churches) bridge the gap that legitimately at risk of failing.
Let's help people who have been laid off, and those who can't keep lights on or get food on the table.
Many/most of us don't NEED the cash, and while some fun money would be nicer, not sure I wanna turn the USD into Monopoly Money over it.
Let's help businesses (not churches) bridge the gap that legitimately at risk of failing.
Let's help people who have been laid off, and those who can't keep lights on or get food on the table.
Many/most of us don't NEED the cash, and while some fun money would be nicer, not sure I wanna turn the USD into Monopoly Money over it.
dkp993
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
I agree with this wholeheartedly. 6-months ago, they were a $140MM company and no one cared what they did. Now, they're a $2BB company and people are looking. The mistakes that Nader has made over the last 8-9 days are big and sloppy. The issue is that he is not getting advice from knowledgeable people in areas where he's deficient and that points to his judgement. To be clear, I think science wins here but I am not happy with the CEO. I am also not selling.
Exactly, giving the people with jobs more money is ridiculous. My wife and I work and have three kids. We aren’t banking ridiculous money but we got $0 from the last stimulus because we just missed it. There are families just below the line that if they are like us would get another $10k a month. Seriously? That stimulus would make a lot people make well more per month than the people who didn’t make the cut. So dumb.
Help business with lost income due to the virus or people who’ve lost their jobs not just a blanket if you make under those you get boatloads. If someone is still working there are other people who need help way more.
chet
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Eek. Not a great sign but I wouldn't read TOO much into it. They're not going bankrupt tomorrow because of this. Nice to see the credit market push back. Twitter said this:
"$UAL had been forced to raise the yield on the bond from 9% to 11% after getting only $1.5B of orders, as investors not impressed w/the 360 older planes used as collateral."
Never a good sign when you pull a deal but usually means investors started asking for too much. Proceeds were to take out a one year term loan that the banks provided. Banks usually provide 364-day TLs for near-term need that company will try to term out. They'll likely work with the banks and figure out what to do next. I'm short all the airlines but this won't be the death knell but you could start to see bank credit tighten or dry up which would contribute to a filing.
djmich
Footballguy
NREC34
Footballguy
I’m sure your companies will give you a pay cut so you can get the 120k. Better yet they could furlough you enough weeks to get you below 120k and then you could hit the trifecta and collect $1000 a week in unemployment and make over a quarter million this year and have 12 weeks off. Now that’s winning
PennState-JD
Footballguy
Saw a post in this thread that suggested never hold up taking profits for tax reasons. This is something I have internally debated and would be curious what the board thinks (obvious how the day traders view it).
Hypothetical:
Option 1– 100k in stocks, increases to $200k. Sell to pocket profit. Pay $40k in taxes and net down to $160k. Next time period, assume it doubles again to $320k. Sell, pay $64k in taxes and net down to $256k.
Option 2– same 100k in stocks, increases to $200k. Hold. Next time period, doubles to $400k. Hold. And on and on.
If you feel good about long term prospects of a stock, isn’t it better to ride it out? My thought was a larger base can grow more over time since you aren’t netting taxes out more frequently. I get that you can’t make money until you actually sell, but I’d be curious how others think about this?
Hypothetical:
Option 1– 100k in stocks, increases to $200k. Sell to pocket profit. Pay $40k in taxes and net down to $160k. Next time period, assume it doubles again to $320k. Sell, pay $64k in taxes and net down to $256k.
Option 2– same 100k in stocks, increases to $200k. Hold. Next time period, doubles to $400k. Hold. And on and on.
If you feel good about long term prospects of a stock, isn’t it better to ride it out? My thought was a larger base can grow more over time since you aren’t netting taxes out more frequently. I get that you can’t make money until you actually sell, but I’d be curious how others think about this?
Here is Dr Yo's video from today. Very minimal Leronlimab references but the entire presentation is at the heart of the need for a drug with Leronlimab's potential. He has a wonderful delivery and a great way about breaking down complex ideas so they are very understandable.
On a related note, what a crazy roller coaster this thing has been lately. A lot of these business happening are gut wrenching. Lots of great insights from many posters about what this all means. I really appreciate all of the points of view regarding CYDY (and the other markets too) and so many people passing along their knowledge.
The one thing in all this craziness is that the science isn't really being attacked. The path to winning is going to be in the science. If the science works, and they can survive from a business standpoint, they will succeed in the long run.
Huge THANK YOU to Chet for turning us on to this early!
Warrior
Footballguy
Like a gambler at the roulette wheel..."This time it's GOTTA hit red! Any day now!" lol
Warrior
Footballguy
Yes, he was wrong when he said that. A better hypothetical is selling on day 364 with a 30% tax hit vs. on day 366 with a 15% cut taken off the top. Sometimes LTCG is absolutely a good reason to hold a little longer when you want to sell.
