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Stock Thread (32 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
I added to my JPM position today. Honestly, don't love it, but whatever. I would try to talk you off of BAC though. 
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Hold WFC, BAC, and KBE in that order.  The former is trading at a 9% dividend yield right now...crazy.

JPM under 85 looks nice.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
@chet

IIRC, you posted some thoughts on this a week or two back?
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The paper is in peer review.  My understanding is that normally, papers can sit for months before being reviewed.  This one is definitely being fast tracked.  

Call starts in 10 minutes.  If you're dialing in, I'd appreciate it if you could submit a question to Nader about national coverage of leronlimab and whether he has any plans to hire a PR company capable of achieving that.  

 
Todem said:
LOL hell no!!! Tepper is really bearish. I am bearish for 2020. This market is too high right now no doubt. 

But I agree with his thoughts to a lesser extreme. He is a very active manager. Far more than I am. 

My most conservative clients are 50-60% CASH. Everyone else is 30% (which is the majority of my book of business). 
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Todem > Tepper at least recently. TodemWould have at least gotten something for cam Newton Would have at least gotten something for cam Newton

 
Bossman said:
Lesson #21

Selling Puts; Limiting Risk; Lower your strike price

So you're interested in Bossmans Put selling scheme but you're not comfortable with such risk. 

Today NERV 6/19 $5 puts are selling at $1.30 ... while the stock price is mid $12 right now

Sell 20 $5 puts, ties up $10k in margin (2000 shares x the $5 strike price)

Premium pays you $2600 (2000 x $1.30)

but $10k ... that's a lot of Benjamins on the line. Palms are all sweaty and junk now ...

Breathe ... the money is still in your account. It stays there until the chance the stocks are put to you.

The only way you lose in THIS case would be if the stock falls BELOW $3.70 ($5 strike less $1.30 premium you were paid) in the next 4 weeks (6/19 expiration).

A $12 stock ... falling below $3.70 in 4 weeks. Let that sink in. When was the last time NERV was selling below $3.70 a share? ... that answer would be NEVER.

Now what are the chances that it falls to say $3? ..... If it did, you lose $1400 (2000 x $0.70) 5% chance? ... lets be conservative and say a 10% chance ...

Ask yourself ... are you afraid of a 10% chance to lose $1400?... with the more likely, 90% scenario you keep your $2600 premium?

If you don't have $10k to tie up ... sell 10 $5 puts at $5k margin.

Please be careful. This is real money and I am very very far from being an expert. I'm only using my common sense ...

... and my common sense tells me that selling $5 NERV puts is free money.
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Makes perfect sense to me. In on 6/19 - $5 puts. Thanks for the info.

 
Todem said:
Bought another 1000 shares at 9.05 BLMN (2000 shares total on this one) plus 1000 shares of MGM.

We will toast some Fosters on the next 20-30% pop Gentlemen. 
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Wish I bought even more when you posted this.  

Cost basis down to 9.16 at least.  

I await your next mario power up mushroom 🤑

 
Slapdash said:
Agree with others it is best in class.  Good lending standards and well run.  Has grown its balance sheet bigly in a risk-free way which will help it inflate earnings even at low rates.
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It is def the best of the bunch, but I'm pretty sure negative interest rates are coming

 
General Malaise said:
Must be nice to short an assssssssssssssssssload of stocks, then get on CNBC and tell the world why stocks are the 2nd most overvalued he's ever seen.  He'll probably close out his positions by the close and buy another yacht.  
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At least he's right and not faking his position while crying on TV like that Ackman scammer who was calling for a bailout as he was covering his shorts and going long.

 
General Malaise said:
Must be nice to short an assssssssssssssssssload of stocks, then get on CNBC and tell the world why stocks are the 2nd most overvalued he's ever seen.  He'll probably close out his positions by the close and buy another yacht.  
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I think he's more hoping for more distressed and dislocations in the market since it's his bread and butter. I assume these guys really want the market to puke so they can pick stuff up at 20 cents on the dollar. So either we let the Fed prop everything up artificially or let all the distressed vultures buy stuff at discounts. Of course all these hedge funds are talking their books but it'd probably be worse if they talked the opposite of their position or do whatever Ackman did. 

 
Old man is taking a beating in JPM, but since his investing horizon is "until the boys inherit it," he doesn't care. It's still the best house, but nobody wants to live in that neighborhood right now.

 
Slapdash said:
I think the Fed will create as much money as it takes to avoid that.  That is what Powell is indicating at least.
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We've learned that negative rates aren't good... We've gotten to see it in other parts of the world. Really need your blinders on to not see that, wonder who doesn't understand this.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We've learned that negative rates aren't good... We've gotten to see it in other parts of the world. Really need your blinders on to not see that, wonder who doesn't understand this.
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I don't really understand what negative rates get you that printing tons of money doesn't? I mean I think someone thinks they'll actually pay you to borrow money but that is besides the point. I mean, printing tons of money and 0% rates probably still aren't good for banks but can't see them actually going negative. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We've learned that negative rates aren't good... We've gotten to see it in other parts of the world. Really need your blinders on to not see that, wonder who doesn't understand this.
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I get why it happens.  If the neutral rate really is negative you can't just keep rates positive and not do anything else without causing inflation.  The Fed/Treasury seem to understand that printing our way out of it is a much better option.  Not every country can do that.

 
sporthenry said:
I don't really understand what negative rates get you that printing tons of money doesn't? I mean I think someone thinks they'll actually pay you to borrow money but that is besides the point. I mean, printing tons of money and 0% rates probably still aren't good for banks but can't see them actually going negative. 
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It's a worse tool for sure.  NGDP Futures Targeting >>>>> QE Infinity>>>>>>>>>> Negative Rates >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Doing Nothing

 
Capella said:
My wife could easily make stonks go up shirts if anybody wants to pay the base cost for them and also find me a new wife after I explain to her why and who I’m doing it for. 
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I think we should have your avatar on the front and then the sad banana emoji on the back. 

 
Slapdash said:
Anyone want to talk me out of adding more bank stonks here?  I definately have some bias given what I do, but this selloff is crazy.  Banks have more than enough capital and liquidity 
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Negative interest rates and people that can’t pay debt seems bad for bank stonks to me but I’m definitely no expert. 

 
I'm sure some of it is confirmation bias but it does seem that CNBC seems to bring on managers who are positioned according to the moves in the market. Bring on Tepper and Druckenmiller as the market is falling (although the latter may have been before it crapped yesterday). Then have Tom Lee say we're going to get to record highs when the market is green. 

 
Todem said:
LOL hell no!!! Tepper is really bearish. I am bearish for 2020. This market is too high right now no doubt. 

But I agree with his thoughts to a lesser extreme. He is a very active manager. Far more than I am. 

My most conservative clients are 50-60% CASH. Everyone else is 30% (which is the majority of my book of business). 
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Where are these Tepper comments?

 
chet said:
The paper is in peer review.  My understanding is that normally, papers can sit for months before being reviewed.  This one is definitely being fast tracked.  

Call starts in 10 minutes.  If you're dialing in, I'd appreciate it if you could submit a question to Nader about national coverage of leronlimab and whether he has any plans to hire a PR company capable of achieving that.  
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Asked, but he said, "There are 20-30 questions like this" and cut off the "any plans to hire a PR company" part. Just "why hasn't there been more national coverage?"

"We need results," basically.

 
Not sure why they scheduled this webinar.   Nadar basically just said until they show results nothing is going to happen in national media.  Plus he said shareholder dilution is on the table.  Seems like the shorts are going to pick pieces out of this webinar and put a negative spin on it.  

 
sporthenry said:
I'm sure some of it is confirmation bias but it does seem that CNBC seems to bring on managers who are positioned according to the moves in the market. Bring on Tepper and Druckenmiller as the market is falling (although the latter may have been before it crapped yesterday). Then have Tom Lee say we're going to get to record highs when the market is green. 
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It is all horses**** IMO on CNBC.  If you followed them you would be broke. The worst business pornography channel on the planet bar none. 

And I agree with you with the confirmation bias. It is so obvious. 

 
Todem said:
No one wants to hear this one.....but I added some more BA here to my own account (just a little more). My 12 month price target is now in the $260 range. When the Max get’s re-certified some time this summer this baby will pop hard. I see more tailwinds for BA then headwinds. 
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I’m surprised we are back to these levels, I may jump in some more with you thanks for the heads up. 

 
Today feels like one of those days where it feels like the final hour of trading will either bounce or fall hard.   Between Powell's opening statement and the comments made by Tepper and Druckenmiller, and the overall realization that our markets will be dealing with the reality of covid for a while--feels like our market could easily be down 700-800 pts--but there seems to be a lot of resistance in it falling more than 450-500 range.   Kinda feels like the last hour of trading will either bring this thing back up to only mild losses--or it could accelerate things to something fairly significant.  

 
Todem said:
It is all horses**** IMO on CNBC.  If you followed them you would be broke. The worst business pornography channel on the planet bar none. 

And I agree with you with the confirmation bias. It is so obvious. 
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They are the worst. Especially cramu, the 2 ponytail brothers, and the rest of that crew on fast money. 'Closing minutes, what are you buying?' 'I bought 'TERD' today'. 'At the top, this market is way over extended'. 'Yeah, TERD'. 

 
Bossman said:
You find these niche moves by reading FBG Stock thread and looking for posts from Bossman.

j/k ... You don't find this kind this move. They typically do not exist. This one (NERV) is a vein of gold in a giant rock quarry.

TDA has a Think or Swim app that is helpful. Put in your parameters and poke around. 

You can find some that are pretty juicy ... and then do the research as to why ... bankruptcy looming etc.

I'm sure there are other tools to find option % if you look for them.
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One can do a search on put options with high Implied Volatility. It's a good place to start to find puts that you might want to sell at a rich premium. The times, though, are such that premiums are very elevated due to the volatility in the markets. In "normal" times,  you would almost never get as much premium as what we're talking about here.

 
Someone please talk me off the ledge. The airline stocks are back to where I made a good bit of coin during the last downturn. Spirit Airlines devil that last time from this nine dollar position

 
Todem said:
It is all horses**** IMO on CNBC.  If you followed them you would be broke. The worst business pornography channel on the planet bar none. 

And I agree with you with the confirmation bias. It is so obvious. 
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Yeah, we stopped watching CNBC in our office several years ago.  Best thing we ever did.  Now the TV goes on for sports only.....I miss sports.  I do not miss CNBC.  I do miss Amanda Drury. :wub:

 
Todem said:
It is all horses**** IMO on CNBC.  If you followed them you would be broke. The worst business pornography channel on the planet bar none. 

And I agree with you with the confirmation bias. It is so obvious. 
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Oh yeah, I don't disagree but they do move the markets. They get some scoops, mostly Faber and his connections, that made it must watch for some deals like S/TMUS, CHTR/Softbank when that was a thing, etc. Then obviously you have interviews like Ackmann. I think they tend to overstate the interviewers impact on the market since they had it. But I don't mind it, especially if it just serves as a barometer for the general market that you can fade.

 
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