beef
Footballguy
A lot of hype and hopes driving it right now. 2nd in market value behind LV Sands. MS sees profitability by 2023. Korean Baseball is huge and DraftKings is offering betting on table tennis.
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Stock Thread (31 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Cashed on BLMN again at 10.98 (bought on sharp dip this morning at 10.10
I did not expect to even really buy anything today, just happened to see the dip and bought.
I like this whole "buy on the dips" thing. Seems to work better than my initial strategy of trying to get lucky
I did not expect to even really buy anything today, just happened to see the dip and bought.
I like this whole "buy on the dips" thing. Seems to work better than my initial strategy of trying to get lucky
Yep, can just about gamble on anything you want but ya want to play poker on line? Nope. I would have hoped this virus changed that since poker rooms are now dead.
beef
Footballguy
Also talked about DKNG's online business model which really separates it from others.
"Investors like the company’s online business model, against that of capital-intensive traditional casinos that have been hard hit by Covid-19 closures, as well as social-distancing restrictions as they start to reopen. Younger gamblers like sports and are comfortable betting on their phones.
Analysts were impressed that the company’s first-quarter core DraftKings revenue was up 30%, to $89 million and showed a pre-Covid-19 year-over-year gain of 60%. The company’s results also include those of its SB Technology unit, which provides technology services to online betting companies."
Really the reason why it caught my attention when it went public. Besides younger betters, even my old tech-illiterate step dad could figure it out and is hooked on it betting golf.
beef
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The last casino visit I had i was able to play table games from a remote setup on a computer screen. It allowed you to bet on the live games going on across the room.
Obvious anyone would be skeptical playing online casino games, but if its linked to an actual live game going on inside the casinos maybe they can cash in big with that sort of model.
Obvious anyone would be skeptical playing online casino games, but if its linked to an actual live game going on inside the casinos maybe they can cash in big with that sort of model.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
I give you credit where credit is due. I was in it for the underwhelming merger pop and bought back in. I'm in it mostly because of it being really the only pure play US sports betting option out there. I'm hoping for a pop once the professional sports announce they're coming back without fans although I have a feeling that is what most people are doing.
I'd just be weary of this. Hopefully it completes its parabolic rise like a lot of the other stay at home stocks. But I'd also caution that DKNG relies on casinos to get access to sports betting. So I have a hard time believing that these casinos are giving away access to sports betting without taking a big cut. I know ERI took $50mn and a 20% stake in William Hill's US operations to give WIMH access. DKNG has a revenue share model with PENN and likely others in most of these states. They are also competing against PENN and other operators who may go direct to consumer. I know PENN is planning on launching the Barstool App so PENN will essentially cannibalize sales of its skins for its own product. Just seems like there will be too much competition. I get investors liking the asset-lite model but to be valued at more than the casinos who likely will take cuts from all of these deals seems absurd.
I suppose the app also helps explain why PENN is up 13% today. Rallying on sports betting but as previously disclosed, they don't even have their own sportsbook yet. Both theses seem a bit premature. But would't be the first time I'm wrong on a growth stock.
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Sold half my BLMN at 10.97 and may sell the other half soon. It is hard to turn down 20% return in a week.Cashed on BLMN again at 10.98 (bought on sharp dip this morning at 10.10
I did not expect to even really buy anything today, just happened to see the dip and bought.
I like this whole "buy on the dips" thing. Seems to work better than my initial strategy of trying to get lucky
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I do see a difference. I personally think DFS is on the downswing. The 15-18% juice is driving away the consumers. I've witnessed it on these boards.
The betting side is intriguing and where the money is at, but once the floodgates open, there will be a squeeze on the juice to capture customers. I also suspect the state governments will have their hands in the kitty too. Yahoo won't be far behind and what's to prevent DIS from getting into the game?
sporthenry
Footballguy
Levine wrote about the Moderna equity raise more eloquently than I could. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-05-19/money-stuff-it-s-a-good-time-to-raise-vaccine-money
I don't disagree with him. When you take a step back, this is how markets should operate. You have a product that seems promising but need capital to develop and scale it so you go raise money. Isn't that how Shark Tank operates. For me, I think the bigger issue is that they announced the overnight after letting the stock run for a day. Feel like they could have announced it in conjunction with the data. Retail schmucks are likely down 5%+ by waiting to announce it until after the market closed.
I don't disagree with him. When you take a step back, this is how markets should operate. You have a product that seems promising but need capital to develop and scale it so you go raise money. Isn't that how Shark Tank operates. For me, I think the bigger issue is that they announced the overnight after letting the stock run for a day. Feel like they could have announced it in conjunction with the data. Retail schmucks are likely down 5%+ by waiting to announce it until after the market closed.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
LEN absolutely on a tear this week. That was a favorite of mine in my portfolio.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I want to invest in a company that makes the electronic poker tables that you see on cruises. I think that is where live poker is heading at least in the near term. Basically there are no chips and no cash. All money is put on a prepaid card that withdraw from and gamble with. No dealers. There used to be a stock called Pokertek PTEK but it got delisted a few years ago. Any ideas?
-OZ-
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Hopefully they have moved on to easier targets. With all these biotechs blowing up, CYDY may not be as high on the radar at the moment.
I hear you about wanting to add more, im tempted as well if it got back in the $2.50 range. Not too greedy though, would rather just see it pop.
Counting on Patterson's upcoming publication of his manuscript as next catalyst for a decent move in a day. That can't happen soon enough.
Steeler
Footballguy
In the context of BnBs post DFS = daily fantasy sports and he thinks it's popularity is on the downswing due to the rake taken from those contests.Are we talking about DFS or DKNG?
there's a huge difference.
the moops
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Good point. The shorts have been mostly silent since all of the other biotechs skyrocketed in price.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Someone isn't letting CYDY fall below $3.14 today. Large bid sizes have been on $3.14 all day. I'll probably buy when Patterson gets published regardless of price.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Fair point. This, being the stock thread, and one of my personal holdings we've talked about (Discover Financial Services) that got confusing.
Mostly agreed, but we're talking about doing a beer mile.
I need to get in on some of this free money, but it’s been a good year in my taxable brokerage account. I’ve only got 7 stocks in there including Amazon, which is hard to judge since I’m not buying it. I’ve got way more stocks in my IRA (only two accounts I control)
Outside of Amazon, I bought 1 stock last May, 4 in October and 1 in January and February (CYDY). They are up 186, 152, 71, 70, 65 and 26%. Amazon is technically up 35%. That’s ridiculous for an average of 7 months including the “drop” we sort of experienced. I’m not even sure it even happened anymore. Feels like it a mirage.
Todem
Footballguy
The near term catalyst is 99% of the country will be reopened by the end of May and in June we are going to be even more confident to go out and eat. Sentiment and momentum trade and a big short squeeze based on good news in the reopening of our country.
I am seeing lines at restaurants already (50% capacity allowed right now). There is huge pent up demand to get back to life. That is what will drive these restaurant names and BLMN will be a big benefactor (Outback, Carraba’s, and Bonefish Grill). I see the stock hitting 13 easy here in the next few weeks. Then see ya. Making the trade.
Again the market has settled into a range here for the remainder of the year. If anyone thinks we are getting back to the 2019 economy by year end and into 2020....you are making a big mistake. Again can we get back to 2/3 of that? Yes absolutely, especially with a viable treatments and hopefully a real effective vaccine by 2021. But the damage that has been done cannot be ignored and having expectations of Dow 30K next year is not smart.
I know people are paying major premiums for growth......to me the rotation to value is going to come into play here during the next 18-24 months.
JPM is a perfect example of a perfect value play. Great yield, fantastically run company, but profitability will be hurt hard in this environment and for the next year or two. But the valuation on this stock is excellent under 90. I buy it here with confidence.....collect my safe yield and in 3-4 years see the major pop in the price when the economic environment will be different and better for more revenue for a bank like Chase.
Industrials right now (I am highly selective here) represent huge long term value, as well as utilities, telecom, and very select REITS (I have mentioned all my names many times in all these sectors). And of course OIL which we went into with PEO in March when oil had that negative 37 a barrel or whatever it was LOL.
There is value in this market. You just have to be willing to buy and hold, collect yield and then profit long term.
While everyone piles into AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, and all the so called stay at home names (and we own all these stocks but not at these cost basis’s today and we did buy aggressively March 16th-23rd when everything....I mean everything was on fire sale) right now I have been tactically (like last week when I posted here) picking up more of the beaten down traditional old guard names that people seem to forget about all the time. Yet these stocks consistently give you good returns over the long term.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
same. I'm on a 20% gain in a week. Hard to hold, but am going to ride it out, hoping to see the $13 that Todem predicts..
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
I will post here when I am out
We are up 25% right now.....I feel strong about it going well above 12 to that $12.50-$13 range.....then we are out. I may even put in a stop loss after today after seeing where it closes. Will update here what I am doing. It is kinda tough with stop losses on this one. He simply has big 5-10% type moves often.
Steeler
Footballguy
Thanks for this one Todem! I'm ~15 years from retirement so it seemed like a perfect fit for my IRA account.
My wife still has a small amount of GE in her IRA account
I'm going to try to get her dump GE and add JPM as well (or anything else, really 
)
Todem
Footballguy
Dump that turd.Thanks for this one Todem! I'm ~15 years from retirement so it seemed like a perfect fit for my IRA account.
My wife still has a small amount of GE in her IRA account
How much is she down in that?
Capella
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
down 50% Fortunately the $ amount invested is really low (fractional percentage of overall retirement portfolio). Literally everything else we own is up right now except this thing.
Bought JPM at $84.66 for a long term hold. Actually have preferred Citigroup at $34.18 for a long term hold also. I haven't traded either of these two. C is at a PE of 6.26 in the $45 range with a 4.5% dividend. Seems like a better value, but there must be a reason why it's not or it would be on your list.
Worked there right after college. Just sold a couple months ago the 6 shares that somehow rolled over into my Fidelity IRA. The mutual funds were cash and it was a small amount, wasn’t fully funding my 401k back then (dummy here). It was only 6 shares so until they did the free trades it felt like I’d pay more to sell than they were worth. I think it was a high of $300 at one point. I just got tired of seeing it listed. Kind of like my 100 shares of LK that I have. I appreciate Fidelity telling me I lost $2k every day!
Worse yet, it shows up in the daily gain/loss number everyday unit things settle out after hours.
Actually, I stand corrected. It's not there today. I guess they revised their software.
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Well Luckin was told they would be delisted today. Guess we are looking at eating a donut.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Hi Todem. Big fan.
Do you think most states are going to allow restaurants to go back to 100% capacity?
If not, how does that impact BLMN?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Great stuff. I've been holding JPM/DFS with a great cost basis. You're a FBG treasure.
What are your thoughts on T? 5 year low of $26. Currently trading at $29, pays an awesome dividend. Seems like free money on a long term hold.
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
May be a little early but I took the gain in some BLMN at $11.15
joker
Footballguy
Out of BLMN for a 25% gain. Would have liked to hold for the $12-13 price, but I've missed selling on a few other things when up 20+%, only to see them go back down. I'm fine with taking my 25% and trying to find some more singles and doubles. Thanks as always to the tips and opportunities posted in here 
I can’t imagine we’d eat a donut, would we? I’d have to think you’d get new shares somewhere or it would be re-listed in the future. It’s not like they declared bankruptcy and shareholders are last in line. I want my $400!
