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stbugs said:
Yep, look at that SRNE stock which is still double what it was before the pop but 50% down from the peak. There are going to be a lot of bag holders. Even if Moderna does develop the vaccine, does that mean they are worth $30B? I don’t even know how much revenue you get from vaccines, especially since there could be a handful of competitors and it’s certainly not out of the question that they get beat out and have nothing.

I’m going back to my younger days, but when the dot com era was in full effect there were a ton of multi-billion dollar search companies (and other types as well). Lycos, Excite, Ask Jeeves, Alta Vista, Yahoo and others. None of them are worth squadoosh now, all beat out by Google. Same type of vibe here, for all the CV biotechs out there, probably only one or two wins out and even maintains their market cap. One of the great things about CYDY is that none of us at the early stages bought in for CV. They were an HIV/cancer drug treatment, just so happened that LeBronLemonade works on CV well. There are going to be dozens based on all these tweets that will be dumped on whales alah Boiler Room. SRNE has 200M total shares. The volume for 15 minutes when it popped Monday morning was 57M. Bag holders have likely already lost a bunch. The shareholders before the tweets made out well and dumped almost the entire float.
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Fair. But I'm not talking about people investing in MRNA. I'm talking about the hundreds of billions made and lost in the entire stock market. We rallied 4% yesterday on this news. Some stocks up 10-20% on the vaccine news. Then today, we sold off 1-2% plus on it. Contrary to what one person here says that everything is priced in. It is abundantly clear that not only are these stocks traded by people who have no idea. The whole market is traded by people trying to interpret this data but having no idea what it all means. 

Nothing changed between yesterday morning and this afternoon in terms of MRNA. Just a report with several vaccine experts saying the data was incomplete. Excuse my language, but what the #### were we rallying on yesterday? I'm no expert so I was free riding a bit, assuming the market was much smarter than me when it came to vaccines. That is why I may just take my ball and go home for now. The market has no clue what is going to happen. I don't either and any attempt to put probabilities on it seems like a finger in the air. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
I like risky stuff.  F it.  Buying in a little under 4, selling first pop
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You should research that move before doing it by reading every article written about Luckin tomorrow morning.  And think about setting your entry point way lower than $4.  Like a buck two fifty.  Or 55 cents.

 
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Todem said:
It’s this kind of thinking and behavior that smart long term investors prey on.
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What sort of dips are you adding on?  When any of your long term targets drops 5% in a day, or specific price targets for each?  Looking to get into some more of the solid long term holds but trying to determine to buy when they see a couple percent drop or waiting for a bigger leg down

 
sporthenry said:
Fair. But I'm not talking about people investing in MRNA. I'm talking about the hundreds of billions made and lost in the entire stock market. We rallied 4% yesterday on this news. Some stocks up 10-20% on the vaccine news. Then today, we sold off 1-2% plus on it. Contrary to what one person here says that everything is priced in. It is abundantly clear that not only are these stocks traded by people who have no idea. The whole market is traded by people trying to interpret this data but having no idea what it all means. 

Nothing changed between yesterday morning and this afternoon in terms of MRNA. Just a report with several vaccine experts saying the data was incomplete. Excuse my language, but what the #### were we rallying on yesterday? I'm no expert so I was free riding a bit, assuming the market was much smarter than me when it came to vaccines. That is why I may just take my ball and go home for now. The market has no clue what is going to happen. I don't either and any attempt to put probabilities on it seems like a finger in the air. 
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Oh, I get you. I will also say that the new on MRNA today didn't exactly say that their vaccine won't work, so the drop should be a little more muted than Monday. That said, at this point we appear to be in the look through the news and find the bit of good to drive the market forward and ignore the bad news.

 
sporthenry said:
Fair. But I'm not talking about people investing in MRNA. I'm talking about the hundreds of billions made and lost in the entire stock market. We rallied 4% yesterday on this news. Some stocks up 10-20% on the vaccine news. Then today, we sold off 1-2% plus on it. Contrary to what one person here says that everything is priced in. It is abundantly clear that not only are these stocks traded by people who have no idea. The whole market is traded by people trying to interpret this data but having no idea what it all means. 

Nothing changed between yesterday morning and this afternoon in terms of MRNA. Just a report with several vaccine experts saying the data was incomplete. Excuse my language, but what the #### were we rallying on yesterday? I'm no expert so I was free riding a bit, assuming the market was much smarter than me when it came to vaccines. That is why I may just take my ball and go home for now. The market has no clue what is going to happen. I don't either and any attempt to put probabilities on it seems like a finger in the air. 
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There is a lot of psychology in the stock market, and right now the market is almost purely psychology.  It's buyers and sellers and when you think about how people are thinking about the market, the moves kind of make sense.

We're kind of sitting on this tenuous middle ground right now.  Half way between where a big dip could take us back down towards the lows or a big rally could take us back up towards the highs.  On the one hand people don't want to get caught bag holding on the next big dip, and want to have cash available to buy cheaply when the next big dip happens.  But on the flipside people don't want to sit on mostly cash and wait for that because they're scared that the market will continue irrationally going up and they will miss out on this big rally.

So people cautiously put some percentage of their money in.  But they are constantly prepared to get out if the big dip looks like it's here or go all in if it looks like the big rally has arrived.

What would cause a big rally?  A vaccine.  So when potential good news comes out about the vaccine it's read the headline and get your money in there to ride the optimism.  When that news ends up being meh and it looks like despair people do the opposite.

I can't say it doesn't make sense.  The potential payoff to overreacting is 50x the payoff to waiting to see how the market reacts to the news.  I sold off a good deal of stuff when that article broke and now I can buy it back cheaper.  What if I was wrong and the market didn't react?  Then big deal I'd just go buy it back for roughly the same price I sold it for.

Normally the market wouldn't react that way because most people invested are in it for the long haul.  But this precarious spot we are sitting in right now half way between SPY 340 and SPY 220, ready to swing one way or the other on one killer breaking news article has turned a whole chunk of the market into potential day/swing traders, just waiting to catch that news.

 
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lod001 said:
So his resume reads, 'I leave a path of destruction behind me'? 

Had a boss like that once. He was grossly fat, and bald. Good chance covid got him. 
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My bosses like that always were promoted to director positions.

 
So Luckin had an ipo price of $17 which happened in May 2019.  The group that revealed the fraud, Muddy Waters Research, wrote "MW is short $LK. We received unattributed 89-page report alleging $LK is a fraud: "number of items per store per day was inflated by at least 69% in 2019 3Q and 88% in 2019 4Q, supported by 11,260 hours of store traffic video" We view the work as credible."  The 3rd and 4th quarters are after the ipo.  Does anyone know if there was any fraud before the ipo happened?  If not, shouldn't the stock be worth close to $17?

 
Don Hutson said:
So Luckin had an ipo price of $17 which happened in May 2019.  The group that revealed the fraud, Muddy Waters Research, wrote "MW is short $LK. We received unattributed 89-page report alleging $LK is a fraud: "number of items per store per day was inflated by at least 69% in 2019 3Q and 88% in 2019 4Q, supported by 11,260 hours of store traffic video" We view the work as credible."  The 3rd and 4th quarters are after the ipo.  Does anyone know if there was any fraud before the ipo happened?  If not, shouldn't the stock be worth close to $17?
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Unless you are day trading, I wouldn't buy any more shares. I'm letting my 100 shares roll, but I'd be more worried about not being able to sell after the de-listing. It will be a long time IMHO before the stock is back above $10. Too uncertain until they restate full revenue and earnings numbers that are fully vetted. There are a bunch of other stocks I'd invest in long term, but for $400, I want to see where this one goes. I could definitely see it being $20+ in 5 years. I just wouldn't bet on them over other companies that I think have a shot to do that.

 
stbugs said:
Unless you are day trading, I wouldn't buy any more shares. I'm letting my 100 shares roll, but I'd be more worried about not being able to sell after the de-listing. It will be a long time IMHO before the stock is back above $10. Too uncertain until they restate full revenue and earnings numbers that are fully vetted. There are a bunch of other stocks I'd invest in long term, but for $400, I want to see where this one goes. I could definitely see it being $20+ in 5 years. I just wouldn't bet on them over other companies that I think have a shot to do that.
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There is speculation on message boards that they'll release corrected financials tomorrow morning before opening.  If I decide to buy tomorrow, it'll be with the intention of it being a day trade.  But it would be nice knowing what the stock would have been worth without the fraud just in case I get stuck with the stock because it drops after I buy it.  It's still a company that has 4,500 stores specializing in takeout coffee which should be a good business model in a Covid-plagued world.

 
I'll go out on a limb and say that LK opens and trades in the morning at about a 50% discount (maybe $2 per share) as many folks run for the hills and take what they can get. But it could easily rebound after those folks with less conviction get gone. I'll say down 50% early and then it recovers at least 50% back to end the day in the mid 3s. I'm holding. Got nothing better to do for entertainment than to watch my money disappear and reappear. Doubt I would buy more, though but who knows.  Maybe a couple hundred more shares if it goes sub 2. Complete guesswork on my part. Invest at your own risk.

 
Just sort of thinking out loud here, but if you believe WFH becomes a permanent thing for a significant chunk of the population, what effects will this have on businesses other than helping remote work stocks and the like? One example is restaurants where lunch is the main draw over dinner. Even Starbucks for that cup in the morning. If we’re doing these things at home more often do you think the decrease will have a significant enough impact that we should consider it? What else?

Obviously if you think WFH won’t be a large permanent change than it’s BAU.

 
pecorino said:
I'll go out on a limb and say that LK opens and trades in the morning at about a 50% discount (maybe $2 per share) as many folks run for the hills and take what they can get. But it could easily rebound after those folks with less conviction get gone. I'll say down 50% early and then it recovers at least 50% back to end the day in the mid 3s. I'm holding. Got nothing better to do for entertainment than to watch my money disappear and reappear. Doubt I would buy more, though but who knows.  Maybe a couple hundred more shares if it goes sub 2. Complete guesswork on my part. Invest at your own risk.
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This is the type of analysis that sucks me in.  

 
Any reason not to buy a couple hundred shares if it drops to $1-2, with the idea to sell it if it pops up to $4+ fairly quickly? Not a big outlay if it goes south or stays flat, and a quick $400-500 profit if it hits the $4 mark. I know a lot of you deal with much larger amounts, but the thought was more to use part of the fun money I'm working with to get a quick single, pocket some $$, and move on. 

 
McBokonon said:
Just sort of thinking out loud here, but if you believe WFH becomes a permanent thing for a significant chunk of the population, what effects will this have on businesses other than helping remote work stocks and the like? One example is restaurants where lunch is the main draw over dinner. Even Starbucks for that cup in the morning. If we’re doing these things at home more often do you think the decrease will have a significant enough impact that we should consider it? What else?

Obviously if you think WFH won’t be a large permanent change than it’s BAU.
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Kuerig and the other home coffee companies.

 
Don Hutson said:
There is speculation on message boards that they'll release corrected financials tomorrow morning before opening.  If I decide to buy tomorrow, it'll be with the intention of it being a day trade.  But it would be nice knowing what the stock would have been worth without the fraud just in case I get stuck with the stock because it drops after I buy it.  It's still a company that has 4,500 stores specializing in takeout coffee which should be a good business model in a Covid-plagued world.
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This is the longest stretch of my life that I have gone without a trip to starbucks... in a however long the place has been around.

 
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Don Hutson said:
There is speculation on message boards that they'll release corrected financials tomorrow morning before opening.  If I decide to buy tomorrow, it'll be with the intention of it being a day trade.  But it would be nice knowing what the stock would have been worth without the fraud just in case I get stuck with the stock because it drops after I buy it. It's still a company that has 4,500 stores specializing in takeout coffee which should be a good business model in a Covid-plagued world.
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Except right now they're in full-blown pusher mode trying to change traditional Chinese habits.

 
joker said:
Any reason not to buy a couple hundred shares if it drops to $1-2, with the idea to sell it if it pops up to $4+ fairly quickly? Not a big outlay if it goes south or stays flat, and a quick $400-500 profit if it hits the $4 mark. I know a lot of you deal with much larger amounts, but the thought was more to use part of the fun money I'm working with to get a quick single, pocket some $$, and move on. 
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It wouldn't shock me if it goes to zero, that's good reason not to buy any shares. You'd need to be willing to lose it all.

 
Which isn't to say they can't be successful in hooking people long-term. 

But when you're already struggling to get your footing and starting off with "first one's free, next time bring a friend," what does it take to then also overcome a scandal? And, oh yeah, Starbucks.

 
BassNBrew said:
Kuerig and the other home coffee companies.
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KDP (Keurig Dr. Pepper) doesn’t report again until July. They reported in April and topped estimates without the full impact of COVID. Last call they said K-Cup increased from 9% to 21% and acknowledged that was largely because people literally couldn’t go to a shop but it’s a growing segment, anyway.

Could be an earnings play, anyway. P/E seems a little out of whack, though.

 
McBokonon said:
Just sort of thinking out loud here, but if you believe WFH becomes a permanent thing for a significant chunk of the population, what effects will this have on businesses other than helping remote work stocks and the like? One example is restaurants where lunch is the main draw over dinner. Even Starbucks for that cup in the morning. If we’re doing these things at home more often do you think the decrease will have a significant enough impact that we should consider it? What else?

Obviously if you think WFH won’t be a large permanent change than it’s BAU.
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I think WFH will see a significant increase in some areas, particularly those that are tech heavy.  I've worked from home for several years now after many years of that cube life.  I spend way less money working from home than I used to - no commute (gas or ferry ticket), no lunch out every day, no grabbing a coffee with a coworker in the afternoon, and (unfortunately) way fewer happy hours.  Hell, I took the ferry to work for 5-6 years and bought a coffee every morning and a cocktail or two every evening (talk about a great commute).  

Pre-Covid I would make a point to go out to lunch or go to a coffee shop to work maybe once or twice a week for a change of scenery, and I look forward to getting back to that, but otherwise it's coffee from the kuerig and leftovers or a salad for lunch.  And I travelled a couple of times a month so that's spending at airlines, hotels, rental cars, Uber, bars, all with the credit card companies taking their cut, that for at least the near future is just gone.  My company is one of many in tech that bring in lunches for those in the office every day - restaurants and services that catered these are going to get crushed in places like SF, NY, Boston (see Specialty's Bakery permanently closing all their locations this week).

Just my thoughts.  Of course none of this apparently matters.  Stonks go up.

 
SFBayDuck said:
I think WFH will see a significant increase in some areas, particularly those that are tech heavy.  I've worked from home for several years now after many years of that cube life.  I spend way less money working from home than I used to - no commute (gas or ferry ticket), no lunch out every day, no grabbing a coffee with a coworker in the afternoon, and (unfortunately) way fewer happy hours.  Hell, I took the ferry to work for 5-6 years and bought a coffee every morning and a cocktail or two every evening (talk about a great commute).  

Pre-Covid I would make a point to go out to lunch or go to a coffee shop to work maybe once or twice a week for a change of scenery, and I look forward to getting back to that, but otherwise it's coffee from the kuerig and leftovers or a salad for lunch.  And I travelled a couple of times a month so that's spending at airlines, hotels, rental cars, Uber, bars, all with the credit card companies taking their cut, that for at least the near future is just gone.  My company is one of many in tech that bring in lunches for those in the office every day - restaurants and services that catered these are going to get crushed in places like SF, NY, Boston (see Specialty's Bakery permanently closing all their locations this week).

Just my thoughts.  Of course none of this apparently matters.  Stonks go up.
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Great stuff. I work for a nonprofit in Phoenix, albeit a large one that crosses a few states, and I’m pretty sure I’ll be WFH forever now. I also used to grab a Starbucks or another place a couple times a week but never, now. 
 

Dunkin might get murdered if this is permanent. I mean, if stonks went down.

eta: I did trim some MA today. Nothing crazy but it was outsized in my portfolio, but we really could see a lot fewer transactions.

 
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McBokonon said:
Great stuff. I work for a nonprofit in Phoenix, albeit a large one that crosses a few states, and I’m pretty sure I’ll be WFH forever now. I also used to grab a Starbucks or another place a couple times a week but never, now. 
 

Dunkin might get murdered if this is permanent. I mean, if stonks went down.
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I saw a post from a friend on book of faces that had a 35+ car line for dunkin, it was longer than any line I’ve seen at in and out and chick fil a and those have crazy long lines right now. People are crazy.

 
CGRdrJoe said:
I saw a post from a friend on book of faces that had a 35+ car line for dunkin, it was longer than any line I’ve seen at in and out and chick fil a and those have crazy long lines right now. People are crazy.
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Maybe fast food up but places like Panera down? I also wonder how much of that is because people couldn’t do it for a while.

 
Hey, look, if you buy 1000 shares of LK at $2 per share, could it return to glory and be a ten-bagger and gross you 20 grand? Of course. You just need to hold out hope that they can hide their accounting issues long enough.

 
For those playing tankers at home. The June contract settled without a hitch and actually saw backwardation return. Oops. Seems like last month had more to do with techicals and trader pain trades than actual lack of storage. I also suppose that some storage was being saved for future need that otherwise won't be needed given the expected reopenings. The oil market is a fickle one. I have no idea how we ended in backwardation. Perhaps another pain trade with people shorting it and getting squeezed? There also could be weird things like maybe some companies bought storage in anticipation of of contango persisting and had to fill it at higher spot prices as production cuts kick in? Will probably add some nat gas on the expectation for continued well shut-ins. Otherwise, going to be in this for a while. I'll clip my dividends and go from there. 

Oh, and Calvin went private on twitter. Guess that is him capitulating or getting sick of twitter trolls. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Either there are a LOT of fbg's tailing @Bossman, or a lot of other people think this is a really good play too.

My link
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McBokonon said:
Hey man, I totally know what I’m looking at and can interpret it and everything, big time, probably better than anyone, but do you mind explaining what that is and how to read it to the dummies here in the thread?
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... I don't think @FreeBaGeL was feeling your    :sarcasm: ... which is why there was no explanation.

I think the chart was showing lots of put sell orders ... but I'm only guessing.

I'm also confused looking at most charts.

People be saying "what we got here is an inverse head and shoulders", "this candle shows the support level and nice bell curve action ... but watch for the death cross from hell where these two lines intersect" ...  "yeah, that's the classic cup and handle right there" ...

and I'm like "where the f do you see a cup ... never mind a handle?" ... "maybe he means this is where we go get coffee?" ...

and I just go back to selling puts. 

 
McBokonon said:
Dunkin might get murdered if this is permanent. I mean, if stonks went down.
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Maybe not.  In Boston, Dunkin is a lot more blue collar than white collar and they can't work from home.  Starbucks on the other hand, sure.

That being said, certainly there will be some Dunkin closures too but wouldn't be shocked if they had more resiliency than you think.

 
Bossman said:
... I don't think @FreeBaGeL was feeling your    :sarcasm: ... which is why there was no explanation.

I think the chart was showing lots of put sell orders ... but I'm only guessing.

I'm also confused looking at most charts.

People be saying "what we got here is an inverse head and shoulders", "this candle shows the support level and nice bell curve action ... but watch for the death cross from hell where these two lines intersect" ...  "yeah, that's the classic cup and handle right there" ...

and I'm like "where the f do you see a cup ... never mind a handle?" ... "maybe he means this is where we go get coffee?" ...

and I just go back to selling puts. 
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I did explain it eventually must have slipped through the cracks.

Anyway the chart showed crazy high volume on $5 6/19 NERV puts about a day after you brought it up, and also pretty high volume on $10 puts as well.  So either lots and lots of us are tailing you or the rest of the world finally found it too.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Except right now they're in full-blown pusher mode trying to change traditional Chinese habits.
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So what you’re saying is they’re a growth company run by thought-leaders executing a paradigm shift in one of the largest economies in the world?

I’m all-in. 

 
You guys buying the dips and selling for 15-20% profit? Are these largely in ROTH IRA? Otherwise, doesn't the capital gains just eat at everything or does tax harvesting offset in other accounts?

Also, I made a ROTH 2019 phased out contribution and for 2020 I may make over the limit. Does this mean I need to start a Traditional ROTH and backdoor if I want to keep gambling on stonks?

 
Charlie Harper said:
You guys buying the dips and selling for 15-20% profit? Are these largely in ROTH IRA? Otherwise, doesn't the capital gains just eat at everything or does tax harvesting offset in other accounts?

Also, I made a ROTH 2019 phased out contribution and for 2020 I may make over the limit. Does this mean I need to start a Traditional ROTH and backdoor if I want to keep gambling on stonks?
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Traditional 401k for me.  Tax free until I die and one of the heirs reaps the Blooming' rewards.

 
A theory floating around message boards is that Luckin stock will jump at the open because shorts need to buy shares to close out.  There aren't many articles written about LK from legit sources.  At least not any articles with advice.  Hopefully, writers are still working on their articles and will publish soon.  Does anyone know of another company that went through something similar in the past?

 
Lowes with a huge quarter.  The double up is complete and and out in the extended hours.

Got 125.14 before it slide back.

 
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