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I really want to start ####in’ with Lucken, but I just don’t seem to have it in me to gamble on this thing. I’ll satisfy that itch by betting on Will Rogers Downs later, which is basically the last track horses go to before they end up at Arby’s.

 
Capella said:
Do you have to register as a day trader to do stuff like this? Just curious how it works. 
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My understanding is that if you qualify as a day trader (its something easy to trip, like 5 buy/sells of the same security in a single day over a 3 day period), then you need to maintain 25k in account to trade.  No registration.  Thats it...someone can clarify if im off. 

 
Capella said:
Do you have to register as a day trader to do stuff like this? Just curious how it works. 
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You can only go in and out 1 time with funds.  If you buy again with those same funds, you have to then keep the stock until the funds settle which is a few days.  If you sell a second time in a day, they will put restrictions on your account.

Edit: And the ability to go in, out, and buy again is assuming you started with funds that were already settled.

 
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Don Hutson said:
You can only go in and out 1 time with funds.  If you buy again with those same funds, you have to then keep the stock until the funds settle which is a few days.  If you sell a second time in a day, they will put restrictions on your account.
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Thanks. 

 
Was just thinking about something for the long term investors here--which is what I am.  Are any of you guys getting a bit nervous--as I kinda am. It's not any one thing in particular--- my concern is about the next inevitable market downturn.  Keep in mind--I'm not necessarily talking about anything covid related--at some point--there will be another downturn as these things happen. 

My concern is that the only reason our markets have survived the last couple of downturns was due to heavy government interference.  As of now--our rates are basically at zero, our defecit is going to be sky high--and I'm not sure if the government would be able to infuse billions/trillions of dollars back into the market again  a few years from now--without absolutely destroying the dollar.    It kinda just feels to me that we could be investing in a market that is getting sky high again without much of a safety net.  

Luckily I have some positions in residential real estate and precious metals--but am thinking about allocating another 5-10% there just to increase my safety net.  Any thoughts?

 
Capella said:
Do you have to register as a day trader to do stuff like this? Just curious how it works. 
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Well unfortunately in this case, I have previous shares so technically I'm selling those shares.

I can't margin in my fidelity account.  Occasionally I get the good faith warning.  10-15 years ago they gave me a time out for doing this too many times.  Not sure if that would apply now with my account balance.

To avoid this hassle, I pinpoint some stocks I want to trade and buy in on a dip like Todem suggests.  If they drop, I'll dollar cost down.  I'll then have enough shares to move around at will without setting off any triggers.  Doesn't work for stocks like AMZ because I don't have enough funds to sit on numerous shares.  Works great for securities priced under $100 and even better for something like CYDY where you can accumulate 4 digit share volumes.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Was just thinking about something for the long term investors here--which is what I am.  Are any of you guys getting a bit nervous--as I kinda am. It's not any one thing in particular--- my concern is about the next inevitable market downturn.  Keep in mind--I'm not necessarily talking about anything covid related--at some point--there will be another downturn as these things happen. 

My concern is that the only reason our markets have survived the last couple of downturns was due to heavy government interference.  As of now--our rates are basically at zero, our defecit is going to be sky high--and I'm not sure if the government would be able to infuse billions/trillions of dollars back into the market again  a few years from now--without absolutely destroying the dollar.    It kinda just feels to me that we could be investing in a market that is getting sky high again without much of a safety net.  

Luckily I have some positions in residential real estate and precious metals--but am thinking about allocating another 5-10% there just to increase my safety net.  Any thoughts?
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Stonks go up?

Your concerns are warranted, but if you look back through yesterdays posts, someone laid out an excellent case why the market isn't overvalued given that we may be in a new normal.  This market is also being driven by tech and bio stocks.  As Todem spoke about yesterday, there are excellent values in many sectors with stocks still trading 40-60% off the highs.  

 
BLMN up less than the total market?  Well that's not ok.  Gonna add more

Edit...maybe not.  Jumped 10 cents in 10 seconds

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
Was just thinking about something for the long term investors here--which is what I am.  Are any of you guys getting a bit nervous--as I kinda am. It's not any one thing in particular--- my concern is about the next inevitable market downturn.  Keep in mind--I'm not necessarily talking about anything covid related--at some point--there will be another downturn as these things happen. 

My concern is that the only reason our markets have survived the last couple of downturns was due to heavy government interference.  As of now--our rates are basically at zero, our defecit is going to be sky high--and I'm not sure if the government would be able to infuse billions/trillions of dollars back into the market again  a few years from now--without absolutely destroying the dollar.    It kinda just feels to me that we could be investing in a market that is getting sky high again without much of a safety net.  

Luckily I have some positions in residential real estate and precious metals--but am thinking about allocating another 5-10% there just to increase my safety net.  Any thoughts?
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I'm with you.  Have a bit of 401K money in cash that I want to put in metals (CEF) but I'm already pretty heavy there.

 
Earnings per share: $1.77, adjusted vs. $1.32 expected

Revenue: $19.68 billion vs. $18.32 billion expected

Same-store sales: up 11.2% vs. 3.3% expected

However, it’s difficult to compare reported earnings with analyst estimates for the first quarter because the coronavirus pandemic has changed customers’ shopping patterns and added additional labor and safety costs for companies.

For the first quarter ended May 1, Lowe’s reported that net income rose 27.6% to $1.34 billion, or $1.76 per share, compared to earnings of $1.05 billion, or $1.31 per share, a year ago. Excluding items, the company earned $1.77 per share, outpacing analyst expectations of $1.32 per share.
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LOL, Lowes is now flat on this news.  Lose money and your stock goes up.  Make a killing and you stock goes down.

 
BassNBrew said:
Stonks go up?

Your concerns are warranted, but if you look back through yesterdays posts, someone laid out an excellent case why the market isn't overvalued given that we may be in a new normal.  This market is also being driven by tech and bio stocks.  As Todem spoke about yesterday, there are excellent values in many sectors with stocks still trading 40-60% off the highs.  
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Totally--and I get that. I think the market has room to go higher--and I think it will go higher.  WIth that said--there will be another market downturn at some point--it's inevitable.  My concern is that our goverment that has historically bailed us out big time during these downturns are not going to have the freedom to go all out as they have been able to in the past.  If in the next 3-5 years we have some sort of major downturn--I just don't think the government can do what they just did again.   That's what I'm worried about.   Put it this way--if our government did not lower rates to zero, and did just a fraction of the stiimulous that they did---where do you think our markets would be right now?  

 
This market really drives me crazy.  The run up the last couple days gives me FOMO for the cash I have on the sidelines (10-15%, waiting for a drop) and slowly makes me chase on a few things/buy in.  Never sure when the latest leg up is the one that breaks through resistance.  I’m sure I’m not the only one.  
 

 
Todem said:
I hope everyone is enjoying GLPI. 
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I was, sold out of the position the other day. Wasn't that one where you suggested to take the profits or did I screw up? Not complaining by any means. Definitely one I'll buy back into if it dips again. Thanks for all your help/tips here.

 
Lacey said:
This market really drives me crazy.  The run up the last couple days gives me FOMO for the cash I have on the sidelines (10-15%, waiting for a drop) and slowly makes me chase on a few things/buy in.  Never sure when the latest leg up is the one that breaks through resistance.  I’m sure I’m not the only one.  
 
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For my Long funds, I have more than that in cash, and still have a lot in bonds and fixed income in some IRAs too.  The floor of the next downturn (if/when it happens) seems to be rising every day, but longs still looks very promising at these entry points and for the next 6 months to a year+.  I'm not just thinking getting back to the February highs either, I'm thinking new record highs that will put the old ones to shame. 

By "Long" and "New Records" I mean beyond Covid.  5-10+ years out, and IRAs I can't touch for a while anyway.  For those funds I don't feel rushed to get back all-in right now or that I completely missed the boat. 

 
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Polish Hammer said:
I was, sold out of the position the other day. Wasn't that one where you suggested to take the profits or did I screw up? Not complaining by any means. Definitely one I'll buy back into if it dips again. Thanks for all your help/tips here.
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You were up huge correct? Yeah no reason not to sell it here from the price we were being in at. Fantastic trade. 

You will be able to buy it back again in the mid to 20’s easy. This market is so news driven right now It is truly insane. I mean 100% driven by news. There is no guidance in this thing (Virus, economy etc). None.

 
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beef said:
For my Long funds, I have more than that in cash, and still have a lot in bonds and fixed income in some IRAs too.  The floor of the next downturn (if/when it happens) seems to be rising every day, but longs still looks very promising at these entry points and for the next 6 months to a year+.  I'm not just thinking getting back to the February highs either, I'm thinking new record highs that will put the old ones to shame. 
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Easy there big fella. 

New highs? We are at least 18-24 months from that IMO. There is some serious damage that has been done and yet to be felt or seen as this thing keeps playing out. There is no way around it. 

This is why I am preaching high quality safe dividend stocks while we wade through this mud we are going to be in for a little while. 

 
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Todem said:
Easy there big fella. 

New highs? We are at least 18-24 months from that IMO. There is some serious damage that has been done and yet to be felt or seen as this thing keeps playing out. There is no way around it. 

This is why I am preaching high quality safe dividend stocks while we wade through this mud we are going to be in for a little while. 
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Do you advocate buying these now or waiting for another 5-10% dip?

 
Todem said:
You were up huge correct? Yeah no reason not to sell it here from the price we were being in at. Fantastic trade. 

You will be able to buy it back again in the mid to 20’s easy. This market is so news driven right now It is truly insane. I mean 100% driven by news. There is no guidance in this thing (Virus, economy etc). None.
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Yes, sir! I was up close to 40% and figured that was enough. I won't cry over a few more points just like I won't cry over missing a bottom buy by a few points. I'm not really trying to time things since I know I'm not nearly good enough for that. Just trying to have a little smart fun with this brokerage account I had nearly forgotten about before. Again, thanks for everything.

 
Todem said:
Easy there big fella. 

New highs? We are at least 18-24 months from that IMO. There is some serious damage that has been done and yet to be felt or seen as this thing keeps playing out. There is no way around it. 

This is why I am preaching high quality safe dividend stocks while we wade through this mud we are going to be in for a little while. 
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Yes, new records.  When I said longs I was talking more 10+ years out, accounts I can't touch for a while, not just the next 1-2 years.  Totally agree with you there though.  I should have clarified better.         

 
Todem said:
I hope everyone is enjoying GLPI. 
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I am not enjoying this ride shorting PENN. Their outsized rally vs the other operators makes absolutely no sense. Since Feb 20, they're down 30% while MGM is down 50%, ERI down 55% and RRR down ~60%. Guess investors really love the asset-lite model where you have fixed rent costs that will absolutely destroy margins. I'll probably wait to the next pull back then just do a long/short of it w/ ERI and MGM. By my estimate, it is currently trading ~1 turn higher on a EV basis than MGM which is mind boggling to me. I suppose you can argue MGM gets ~1/2 of its earnings from the strip which won't recovery as quickly but they'll also get a bump from better regional casinos. Or ERI w/ CZR for that matter. Yeah, they're adding conventional debt but I absolutely hate the sale/leaseback model for operators. 

 
Lacey said:
Do you advocate buying these now or waiting for another 5-10% dip?
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I bought some more JPM yesterday. That is it. Wait for another dip. We are getting them...no doubt. 

I think this level is our highs for 2020 and we trade in a 6-10% range here.

Fall we could get some panic selling on flare ups, and economic damage reality settling into corporate earnings. 

Stocks are all removing guidance through 2020 year end. That is called flying blind. I am cautiously optimistic, picking spots to pick up value stocks. The rotation to value will robust second half of 2020 IMO once the reality of the recession we are own hits. 

So when we see selloffs in great, low value high yielding companies we love we buy on those dips like we did last week. 

 
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beef said:
Yes, new records.  When I said longs I was talking more 10+ years out, accounts I can't touch for a while, not just the next 1-2 years.  Totally agree with you there though.  I should have clarified better.         
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Gotcha! I see new highs in 3-4 years. Easy. Based on a full recovery and start of another cyclical bull. But it will take a while. 

 
beef said:
Thanks.  Got a little lucky there.  Had I waited another half hour I would have missed that run.

Targeting (hoping) for a Russell 1250-1260 range to happen this week and get out before the weekend.  Should put TZA around 36-37 for a 20+%.  Depending on how the markets are looking and news on another Stim Package, I'll be eyeing TNA for the rebound.  
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:lol:  what a tease of a run that was.  Added a little more TZA.  Still have a little breathing room to buy down if need be.  Looking like my target range ain't happening this week.  

 
Todem said:
Easy there big fella. 

New highs? We are at least 18-24 months from that IMO. There is some serious damage that has been done and yet to be felt or seen as this thing keeps playing out. There is no way around it. 

This is why I am preaching high quality safe dividend stocks while we wade through this mud we are going to be in for a little while. 
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Todem,

Do you consider DFS a long term hold, or is that something you are looking to take the quick gain like a BLMN?

Also, we are heavy in AAPL (about 20% of our total). Had a $320 in my head to maybe get out of half of it and sit on the next drop of VTSAX. $320 decent or  unwise to you?

 
steelerfan1 said:
Todem,

Do you consider DFS a long term hold, or is that something you are looking to take the quick gain like a BLMN?

Also, we are heavy in AAPL (about 20% of our total). Had a $320 in my head to maybe get out of half of it and sit on the next drop of VTSAX. $320 decent or  unwise to you?
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20% is a huge position. I would sell half at 320 no doubt. You must be up over 100% easy on that one I would assume. 

That is too much exposure to a single stock. I don’t care who they are....that is not a good strategy long term. I always advocate at least taking your original investment out once you hit 100% plus gains. Own it for free the rest of you life....even if it doubles again....all house money. 

 
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Todem said:
20% is a huge position. I would sell half at 320 no doubt. You must be up over 100% easy on that one I would assume. 

That is too much exposure to a single stock. I don’t care who they are....that is not a good strategy long term. I always advocate at least taking your original investment out once you hit 100% plus gains. Own it for free the rest of you life....even if it doubles again....all house money. 
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Thanks. looks like it got to 319.50. Thursdays have been a climb so hoping tomorrow. Also, back to DFS. This a hold in your opinion?

 
sporthenry said:
For those playing tankers at home. The June contract settled without a hitch and actually saw backwardation return. Oops. Seems like last month had more to do with techicals and trader pain trades than actual lack of storage. I also suppose that some storage was being saved for future need that otherwise won't be needed given the expected reopenings. The oil market is a fickle one. I have no idea how we ended in backwardation. Perhaps another pain trade with people shorting it and getting squeezed? There also could be weird things like maybe some companies bought storage in anticipation of of contango persisting and had to fill it at higher spot prices as production cuts kick in? Will probably add some nat gas on the expectation for continued well shut-ins. Otherwise, going to be in this for a while. I'll clip my dividends and go from there. 

Oh, and Calvin went private on twitter. Guess that is him capitulating or getting sick of twitter trolls. 
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Let’s hope he marks the bottom 🙂 Kuppy called bottom yesterday, too. 

 
guru_007 said:
You can trade in any brokerage account.  If it were me, I would not be making wild moves with any retirement account, but I am all for gambling with a small portion of a Roth IRA to swing for the fences.  I know a lot of people in here are making some money here doing various things, but in all honesty, you should hold yourself accountable for what you are doing as it's your money.  If you want to gamble with the stocks, setup a small brokerage account and go for it.  But, yes, there are taxes that no one in this thread seem to take into account, so a 15% short term gain more than likely will be a 8-10% short term gain net.

Part 2 will require a backdoor Roth, correct.

And honestly I do hope that no one is gambling with their retirement money.  I do like watching people making money.  But no one at all is taking into account risk (nor the "t" word) and this is a mistake, imho.
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Thanks for the clarification.

Just to ease your mind I should have a pension that will cover 60% and I have been maxing out my 457 plan (100% VFIAX) at work for the past 2 years and will continue to do so. Stable job as an RN, just need to ride out the 30 years, and hope CalPERS doesn't crap the bed.

So I feel ok playing with ROTH money to try and hit homeruns. Or should I not?

 
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Charlie Harper said:
Thanks for the clarification.

Just to ease your mind I should have a pension that will cover 60% and I have been maxing out my 457 plan (100% VFIAX) at work for the past 2 years and will continue to do so. Stable job as an RN, just need to ride out the 30 years, and hope CalPERS doesn't crap the bed.

So I feel ok playing with ROTH money to try and hit homeruns. Or should I not?
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It's your money :)

I always cringe when I see people actively trading in their retirement accounts, although I suppose I should save that advice for the financial advice thread, as this is the stock, aka gambling thread.  Retirement money, in my eyes, should be invested because when you need it, you will have no other sources of income, save social security.  As you have a pension, that definitely affords you some opportunity to be more aggressive than others.

A ROTH only allows you to put in about $6K/year, so if you have a few losers, you're going to need to wait a year before reloading.  A brokerage account offers you a lot more flexibility.  Plus, if you have some massive gains, these are a lot more liquid to enjoy, whereas in a Roth, you'll need to wait.  The main benefit of a Roth is the growth tax free, you should maximize this benefit by using the beauty of compounding returns.  Sure, if you hit a home run in a Roth thats great, but I guess I'm a bit more conservative than most as I'm older and can see the finish line from the grind.  

Of course there is no one size fits all advice, this is just my opinion.

 
Lacey said:
@BassNBrew nerv puts not quite as juicy as before.  Any new ones you’ve found?
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Here's the news that you're looking for ...

Selling Puts / Lesson #36B

Put premiums will decay without "news" for two reasons;

1) closer you get to strike date ... snooze = loose

since there is less time for the stock price to drop to strike price = less risk

b) Stonk price goes up

further away from strike ... less chance of hitting strike = less risk

I'm afraid that ship has sailed on the ridiculous premiums that NERV was paying for what seems like very little risk.

Combination of both of the above in this case. #gottabequickerthanthat #bossmanvswallstreet #winning 

 
Bossman said:
Here's the news that you're looking for ...

Selling Puts / Lesson #36B

Put premiums will decay without "news" for two reasons;

1) closer you get to strike date ... snooze = loose

since there is less time for the stock price to drop to strike price = less risk

b) Stonk price goes up

further away from strike ... less chance of hitting strike = less risk

I'm afraid that ship has sailed on the ridiculous premiums that NERV was paying for what seems like very little risk.

Combination of both of the above in this case. #gottabequickerthanthat #bossmanvswallstreet #winning 
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I got 5 of them, just thinking about more 👍.  Thanks for the tip!

 
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