Stock Thread (43 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

He does on his Chromebook.  We don't have a video game machine in our house, but he'll play with his buddies using that.  His GF takes up a lot of his time too (pre-quarantine in person and quarantine via phone).  To his credit, he's two sport athlete so this school shutdown really kicks him in the jimmy.  He's also pretty beat up over the failed permit test, but each time, it's his stubbornness and not his intellect that stood in his way.  

I like the angle of mutual funds, but I much prefer the individual stock picking element to this.  I've got some ideas of my own - blue chips, things that throw off cash.  Anyhow, much appreciate any and all feedback.  You guys know your chit and I say that as a guy that's been in the hedge fund world since '99. 

GM

EAT

AAL

T

DUK

 

[-OZ-]

Geesh. Walk away for a free hours, check the market.  :Hellooo nurse: 

 

[Polish Hammer]

I bought a decent amount of my CYDY holdings at a price point a fair bit above today's price. Since I have some other stocks I've pocketed profits on this year, is there a benefit to selling my higher priced shares of CYDY (LIFO basis, if I'm allowed to do that) and rebuying at the current price? I figure that would give me a paper loss to offset the other gains I've realized in the same tax year. Does that make sense or am I barking up the wrong tree?

 

[-OZ-]

I bought a decent amount of my CYDY holdings at a price point a fair bit above today's price. Since I have some other stocks I've pocketed profits on this year, is there a benefit to selling my higher priced shares of CYDY (LIFO basis, if I'm allowed to do that) and rebuying at the current price? I figure that would give me a paper loss to offset the other gains I've realized in the same tax year. Does that make sense or am I barking up the wrong tree?

Wash sale.

 

[Polish Hammer]

Wash sale.

Gotcha, thanks. So essentially I'd have to wait 31 days for the re-buy and hope that the price doesn't appreciably rise over that span of time.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wash sale.

Can that be done using different platforms or is that still against the rules.

Say I buy 1000 share on robinhood at the same time I sell 1000 shares on fidelity

 

[-OZ-]

Can that be done using different platforms or is that still against the rules.

Say I buy 1000 share on robinhood at the same time I sell 1000 shares on fidelity

Still against the rules. 

Even if you sold in the regular brokerage and bought in the Roth IRA, I believe. (I almost violated this rule last year, sold some stocks at a loss Dec 30 to fund the Roth IRA, opted to buy a different ETF)

 

[matuski]

@matuski  NARI having a nice morning so far.  +9.25%

Funny how this is my most hohum purchase... up 18% in a week. 

 

[Steeler]

Still against the rules. 

Even if you sold in the regular brokerage and bought in the Roth IRA, I believe. (I almost violated this rule last year, sold some stocks at a loss Dec 30 to fund the Roth IRA, opted to buy a different ETF)

It's against the wash sale rules meaning you can't deduce the lose but you can still do the transaction, right?

 

[-OZ-]

It's against the wash sale rules meaning you can't deduce the lose but you can still do the transaction, right?

Yes. (Not legal or accounting advice, just a dude on a football forum)

I sure hope so! 

 

[beef]

Can that be done using different platforms or is that still against the rules.

Say I buy 1000 share on robinhood at the same time I sell 1000 shares on fidelity

I've thought about stuff like this before.  Assume both end of being short term sales, and even though they'll be reported separately to the IRS from Robinhood and Fidelity, how would you separate them on your 1040 Schd D to not look like a wash?  Maybe (not saying it's legal, just if you'd get away with it), if you hold those shares on Fidelity for the long term so you're not reporting those on your 2020 taxes.  But in the end I ask myself if it's really worth the effort, and I've yet to say yes to that.    

 

[sporthenry]

It's against the wash sale rules meaning you can't deduce the lose but you can still do the transaction, right?

Yes, and the loss gets added to your cost basis so it doesn't disappear either. 

Let’s say you buy 100 shares of XYZ stock for $10 per share ($1,000 of stock). One year later, the stock starts dropping, so you sell your 100 shares for $8 per share—a $200 loss. Three weeks later, XYZ is trading at $6 per share and you decide that price is too good to pass up, so you repurchase the 100 shares for $600. This triggers a wash sale.

As a result, the $200 loss is disallowed as a deduction on your current-year tax return and added to the cost basis of the repurchased stock. That bumps the cost basis of your $600 of replacement stock up to $800, so if you later sell that stock for $1,000, your taxable gains will be $200 instead of $400. And because you previously held XYZ for a year, it will automatically be treated as a long-term capital gain, even if you sell it after just a few months.

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/a-primer-on-wash-sales

 

[TripItUp]

A couple of other high risk momentum/day trades I'm looking at:  MARK and APPS.

**Buyer Beware (like GNUS)

 

[The Ref]

I am out of CCL at 17.37 for a cool 55% gain. 

I truly believe the cruise stocks are going to pull back again and we can trade them again. I have really sunk my teeth into the cruise industry and they are not going to get back to 2019 EPS for at least.....3-4 years minimum. Probably longer. This will be the slowest recovery in the travel group. Slower than hotels, slower than airlines. This is an international type of travel. 

All of them are going to have to raise even more capitol to stay afloat (pun intended). I am taking this easy trade off the table. 

Nice trade.  It was never as bad as they made it out to be.  At 17 CCL isn’t the same easy trade it was at 8.

 

[kevzilla]

A couple of other high risk momentum/day trades I'm looking at:  MARK and APPS.

**Buyer Beware (like GNUS)

MARK is one that people are spamming Vegas-related Twitter feeds with. Thermal scanning at the casinos and such.  

 

[-OZ-]

I've thought about stuff like this before.  Assume both end of being short term sales, and even though they'll be reported separately to the IRS from Robinhood and Fidelity, how would you separate them on your 1040 Schd D to not look like a wash?  Maybe (not saying it's legal, just if you'd get away with it), if you hold those shares on Fidelity for the long term so you're not reporting those on your 2020 taxes.  But in the end I ask myself if it's really worth the effort, and I've yet to say yes to that.    

Yeah, I just remind myself that I like to keep things fairly simple. 

With 2 TSPs, 2 Roth IRAS, 4 college accounts, 4 regular brokerage accounts (2 have nothing in them), seperate checking and savings (discover and USAA), 4 savings accounts for the kids, a fundrise account, a worthy bonds account, 3 different pay checks, and 6 different credit cards we use, the last thing I need to try to do is cheat the IRS and try to keep that straight.

If I died, my wife would be completely lost with this stuff.

 

[TripItUp]

MARK is one that people are spamming Vegas-related Twitter feeds with. Thermal scanning at the casinos and such.  

Yes

 

[kevzilla]

Doubled down on TVIX at the close, it'll have to crawl over $150 for me to break even.

 

[CR69]

Fair. Don't get me wrong. I'm short PENN and effectively short casinos by not being long any of the others. But with that Macau data, WYNN screams like a bigger loser. 70% from Macau earnings. Rest is derived from Strip with growing Boston business that will seemingly get crushed. And trades much higher than MGM. I may be accounting for MGM's ownership of MGP differently than most but I have MGM at ~7.2x 2019 earnings vs WYNN at 10.2x. Obviously, those earnings are gone for the time being but I look at it more for relative comparison sake. Obviously, WYNN always traded at a premium but will it get 20%-30% more earnings back or faster than MGM? 

Just saw this in the news feed on thinkorswim:

For investors looking to bet on a Vegas recovery, Bank of America has the following ratings and price targets for the four casino stocks mentioned:

Las Vegas Sands, Buy rating and $61 target.

Wynn Resorts, Buy rating and $95 target.

MGM Resorts, Underperform rating and $15 target.

Caesars, no rating.

 

[TripItUp]

A couple of other high risk momentum/day trades I'm looking at:  MARK and APPS.

**Buyer Beware (like GNUS)

I'm also looking at NIO if you guys want to look that up.

 

[Random]

VISL climbing up the RH track.

 

[sporthenry]

Just saw this in the news feed on thinkorswim:

For investors looking to bet on a Vegas recovery, Bank of America has the following ratings and price targets for the four casino stocks mentioned:

Las Vegas Sands, Buy rating and $61 target.

Wynn Resorts, Buy rating and $95 target.

MGM Resorts, Underperform rating and $15 target.

Caesars, no rating.

Fair we'll see. I also saw he raised his PT on PENN so #### him. Just kidding, kinda. I mean, I don't hate it as a beta short on casinos given how far they've run. I just wouldn't have picked them first but that might be why the premium was so low. Wasn't looking at puts, just straight shorts. 

I will say just on timing, I'm not sure if we'll get the price action by September. I mean, we could get a market sell-off anytime and higher COVID related names likely to bear the brunt of it. But assuming things don't get bad again over the summer and things reopen over the summer, volume will rebound so while Q2 earnings will be , they'll all be like volume is up 70% from the lows and market may take that as enough. Market could get complacent on a 2nd wave in the fall. 

 

[CR69]

Fair we'll see. I also saw he raised his PT on PENN so #### him. Just kidding, kinda. I mean, I don't hate it as a beta short on casinos given how far they've run. I just wouldn't have picked them first but that might be why the premium was so low. Wasn't looking at puts, just straight shorts. 

I will say just on timing, I'm not sure if we'll get the price action by September. I mean, we could get a market sell-off anytime and higher COVID related names likely to bear the brunt of it. But assuming things don't get bad again over the summer and things reopen over the summer, volume will rebound so while Q2 earnings will be , they'll all be like volume is up 70% from the lows and market may take that as enough. Market could get complacent on a 2nd wave in the fall. 

I've got some September puts on PENN and RRR too haha. My thinking is there will be an initial surge but then demand will drop especially with no events or conventions. 

This is my first time trading options, always been a buy and hold guy, but I pay a lot of attention to Vegas and its economy since it's one of our favorite places to visit. The one mistake I did make is that my theory was they would pop (which they have) before dropping but I didn't buy any calls. I could be free rolling on my puts right now

 

[ex-ghost]

GNUS up another 10% after hours. Also the #1 "Popularity Changes" on Robintrack.

http://robintrack.net/popularity_changes

 

[GoBirds]

Wow, what a come back.....stocks go up!

You guys see any value still out there? 

 

[caustic]

GNUS up another 10% after hours. Also the #1 "Popularity Changes" on Robintrack.

http://robintrack.net/popularity_changes

I wasn’t being serious when I said “$9 or bust” yesterday, but now...  

 

[-OZ-]

Wow, what a come back.....stocks go up!

You guys see any value still out there? 

 

[GoBirds]

I figured.....instead of being greedy I'll just be happy to be where we are. I've added to a Vanguard fund recently and some GOLD this week. 

 

[-OZ-]

I figured.....instead of being greedy I'll just be happy to be where we are. I've added to a Vanguard fund recently and some GOLD this week. 

This week I've only bought the usual, TSP (pay week) and 70% VTI, 30% mix autopilot for the house fund. 

 

[matuski]

These headlines about people really starting to believe in the rally are scaring me.  This is when the market pulls the rug out, right when everyone is feeling themselves.

 

[ghostguy123]

These headlines about people really starting to believe in the rally are scaring me.  This is when the market pulls the rug out, right when everyone is feeling themselves.

Too many people feeling.......greeeeeedEEEEE (imagine the end of that word with a higher pitch sound.  Shut up, it was funnier in my head)?

I sold everything in my brokerage today except the draftkings that I bought around 39.50.  I am ok with all cash there right now with my 403b all equities.  

Awaiting the bat signal.  If it never comes, so be it.  If it does, I will be ready.

I used to only root for up up up.  Now I root for big red days and view them as buying opportunities.  Dare I say maybe I am..........learning?

I still have no idea what some of you are talking about regarding puts and calls and the boiler room stuff (great movie by the way) and anything that has to do with a chart, but still nothing but greatness in this thread.  

 

[Whyatt]

Quote from Dr Jacob Lalezari from yesterday's presentation:

https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=5785531

"No other drug showing this kind of antiviral effect and Leronlimab is not even an antiviral... all happening over a 48-72-hour period which is amazing to see this effect in 100% of patients... there's no precedent for this; we know it's working even before we know how it's working or have randomized clinical studies. Potentially this is groundbreaking and the world has never seen anything like it and in my heart of hearts I think this is a homerun... ad in my heart of hearts I wish we had it approved six weeks ago and maybe it could have saved the first 100-thousand lives."

If it really does work this well, then there should be some #### thrown at the administration guys who were big Gilead backers.

I guess I’m too close to the drug development process to understand this perspective. 
Why is a conspiracy to expect CYDY’s drug to prove efficacy in a randomized blind clinical trial like ever other approved drug? Is everyone aware that Remdesivir demonstrated a (yes, mild) clinical benefit in a randomized trial of over 1000 patients? It’s the only drug to do it so far, that’s why it was touted. 

My strong recommendation is for CYDY investors to seek to understand the drug approval process, and more importantly the evolving competitive landscape for the drug. I don’t think Nader gave an accurate assessment in the presentation this week.

 

[Charlie Harper]

I posted more a few pages back on CLDR but they report earnings today after close and they're expecting to show a profit of 1 or 2 cents a share - big milestone for this tech company that has been incurring losses quarter after quarter. I also think they'll smash revenues estimates. Growing tech company with a lot of upside. 

So the earnings report wasn't as high as projected and after hours washed out all the gains made today. 

Was your buy recommendation built soley on the earnings report? The company competitors are big boys like AWS and Azure. Not tech savvy enough to understand what makes them special.

 

[Whyatt]

For CYDY, consider il6 inhibitor Tocilizumab as a significant hurdle.

Its an approved drug, currently being used off label for Covid, to address the cytokine storm. 

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/03/remdesivir-update

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.29.20117358v1

• phase 3 trial of 400+ patients just finished enrollment 
  
• will very likely show a clinical benefit 
  
• will be trialed (phase 3) with Remdesivir, results should be available in the fall
  

this is what CYDY is up against. It will need to be more efficacious to compete, and the current small trials they as running simply won’t support that, IMO.

 

[TripItUp]

These headlines about people really starting to believe in the rally are scaring me.  This is when the market pulls the rug out, right when everyone is feeling themselves.

Have to agree 

 

[PennState-JD]

I'm also looking at NIO if you guys want to look that up.

NIO and APPS are both on the top 10 most added stocks at Robinhood during the last four hours of the day.  I am also looking at SOLO from that list.  I started tracking performance of their top gainers from the day before to see what happens an hour in and then through the day.  Looking for trends that might be taken advantage of.  

 

[ghostguy123]

Random question regarding the yearly tax implications that have been discussed.

So I have heard people mention selling stocks they took a loss on at the end of the year to lessen their taxable gains (assuming you sold stocks for a profit during the year).  I was wondering if stocks that were "losers" on the year were sold even more at the end of the calendar year 

Say for example Home Depot lost 30% from 1/1/20 to 12/25/20.    Would it sell off even more that last week of the year?

Hence representing a good buy for that last week of the year, or is the impact of something like that minimal?  

 

[sporthenry]

Missed this but Minerd took aim at the Fed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/guggenheim-s-minerd-says-fed-faces-reckoning-for-market-support

Guess nobody will care until the day of reckoning. 

 

[matuski]

Random question regarding the yearly tax implications that have been discussed.

So I have heard people mention selling stocks they took a loss on at the end of the year to lessen their taxable gains (assuming you sold stocks for a profit during the year).  I was wondering if stocks that were "losers" on the year were sold even more at the end of the calendar year 

Say for example Home Depot lost 30% from 1/1/20 to 12/25/20.    Would it sell off even more that last week of the year?

Hence representing a good buy for that last week of the year, or is the impact of something like that minimal?  

You don't buy stocks to sell for losses.

You sell for losses when it benfits you strategically tax-wise.

 

[ghostguy123]

You don't buy stocks to sell for losses.

You sell for losses when it benfits you strategically tax-wise.

??  I know.  I am talking about people selling at the loss to offset their gains, and could that push the price down a little more at the end of the year.

 

[matuski]

??  I know.  I am talking about people selling at the loss to offset their gains, and could that push the price down a little more at the end of the year.

OK. I have no idea what you are talking about. 

 

[ghostguy123]

OK. I have no idea what you are talking about. 

Would people selling a stock at a loss to benefit them strategically tax-wise have any short term impact on the share price?  

I dont know how else to I can ask this any more clearly.  If nobody gets it, then obviously it was a dumb question.

 

[Don Hutson]

Random question regarding the yearly tax implications that have been discussed.

So I have heard people mention selling stocks they took a loss on at the end of the year to lessen their taxable gains (assuming you sold stocks for a profit during the year).  I was wondering if stocks that were "losers" on the year were sold even more at the end of the calendar year 

Say for example Home Depot lost 30% from 1/1/20 to 12/25/20.    Would it sell off even more that last week of the year?

Hence representing a good buy for that last week of the year, or is the impact of something like that minimal?  

Yep.  Google "tax-loss selling" for a bunch of articles on the subject.  There will be articles written in November and December listing stocks that are possibilities.

 

[stbugs]

I guess I’m too close to the drug development process to understand this perspective. 
Why is a conspiracy to expect CYDY’s drug to prove efficacy in a randomized blind clinical trial like ever other approved drug? Is everyone aware that Remdesivir demonstrated a (yes, mild) clinical benefit in a randomized trial of over 1000 patients? It’s the only drug to do it so far, that’s why it was touted. 

My strong recommendation is for CYDY investors to seek to understand the drug approval process, and more importantly the evolving competitive landscape for the drug. I don’t think Nader gave an accurate assessment in the presentation this week.

Sorry, didn’t really see anything that would change my viewpoint right now. I think Remdesivir benefits from connections to an administration that allowed it to be touted more than it should. I may be wrong but I do think you’ve got a bit of an agenda based on your prior posts and maybe I’m wrong but I’ll wait to see how the current trials come back.

 

[stbugs]

Would people selling a stock at a loss to benefit them strategically tax-wise have any short term impact on the share price?  

I dont know how else to I can ask this any more clearly.  If nobody gets it, then obviously it was a dumb question.

If you are making decisions based on other people selling shares to harvest losses then you should probably look at another stock. I wouldn’t think that it would be significant to matter and if you are long that stock, it should recover.

 

[drunken slob]

A couple of other high risk momentum/day trades I'm looking at:  MARK and APPS.

**Buyer Beware (like GNUS)

Looked at MARK back in April and decided it wasn't my cup of tea.

APPS, this one I bought on May 1st @ $5.31 and it stayed red up until the middle of last week. Saw it jumped 30% today alone, setting a 52 week high. Feel like I should sell it first thing tomorrow morning.

As for NIO, looked at that back in April and decided that China based companies were sketchy right now. Full disclosure, I did break my own rule recently and bought some LK really cheap after it resumed trading last week.

Like you said, buyer beware 

 

[drunken slob]

My magic football winnings account:

ALSK (Good growth potential, good dividend last quarter)

APPS (Already discussed)

DSKE (Up 121%  , could see it going up more)

EDN (Argentinian electric utility)

ERF (Monthly dividend stock)

GOLD (Red,  )

GT (Looking for a price between today and the 52 week high of $17.20)

LK

NRT (Dividend stock. Have this in my long view account and will sell from here when my profit is a little higher.)

PVL (Monthly dividend stock, a very tiny one, but a dividend payer none the less)(Plus it's dirt cheap)

SPCE (Posted about this one on January 15th and should have bought it back then at $12 .  Got it the other day at $15.84)

WTI (Holding for the price to go up a little more)

GOLD and LK are my only red holdings on this list right now.

 

[Warrior]

Those posts from a couple weeks ago from so many constantly saying  "I'll re-buy when things inevitably drop"...."aaaaany day now! Drop happening soon"... "I'm sure of it, we're about to drop and I'll re-buy"....etc. are hopefully learning a good but painful lesson this go-around. They are now looking at the ship that set sail without them. It's miles away and heading in the wrong direction. 

Inevitably there will be a small drop and they'll hop back in, 15% higher than where they hopped out. 

 

[Betterbelieveit]

Sure MGM has Aria and Bellagio, but the rest of their properties are targeted towards middle class customers. How much disposable income do they have right now? I guess we'll find out soon enough.

A bonus of $600 a week for months. A nice stimulus check, almost free room and flight and the belief more will be handed out after they blow it all. Plus the inherent thought that everyone is due to become a millionaire with the lower middle (or upper low) class (see your state's scratch off ticket revenue). Honestly I think that the way the market is, the well to do are making a killing off the RH newbies. Why lower you odds? And I know I am the boards most recent joke as I made an honest mistake that played in my favor and against most here. But I am seriously rooting for you. #Bossman I was on board early. Believe me that I am not gloating. It literally was my first options trade ever as I had no interest in the risk. Not interested in doing it again. I am not trying to criticize your opinion on this perspective either rather just offering mine as most people do here.

 

[CR69]

This doesn’t seem like a good sign:

https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/03/simon-property-group-sues-gap-for-66m-in-unpaid-rent/