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Stock Thread (46 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
sporthenry
Footballguy
Will be a good trading week but I'd just reiterate it could have a lot of moves and headfakes given the option expiry on Friday. I think max pain for the S&P is below 3,000 but that is also with a massive put/call imbalance on individual equities (so max pain could be ~3,000). So maybe we just trade around that 3,000 number all week. But I think the tail risk is definitely on the downside. Put/call ratio seemed to have become more bearish last week, which is a contra-indicator. That said, I saw retail call options are sky high which may prove to be the canary in the coal mine. I think a lot of folks are looking at retail as being weak hands. So far, they've been smart and beat the experts but what happens when they seem to be peak bullish and start to see their options or equity stake in HTZ drop 20-30%? I suspect most of us all learned this way at some point and I find it hard to believe that retail is going to keep touching the stove and not get burned. But I've been wrong until now. Dark pool money seemed to indicate buying on Friday (which is normally bullish) while gamma likely remains bearish. Could be a chop fest but I'm looking for a not-so orderly sell-off. For me, that is where the real value is, taking advantage of irrational moves. If you've been long, you've pretty much already taken advantage of the irrational move up. It's also interesting to note these levels coincide with important pure technical levels. I'm not sure how correlated they are but seems too much to be a coincidence that max pain is below key technical levels like 200dma upon which gamma would turn negative and accentuate a sell-off.
Adam Mancini / Jun 13
Have a great weekend! $SPX Put in a red week finally and next week decides if it was trend change or bear trap. Bulls saved Friday exactly at the backtest of May's major 2970 breakout. My plan next week: Setup higher to 3120 but 2970 low *must* hold. Below is a short to 2880
ETA: We're also running into these technical levels as we potentially deal with a 2nd wave or at least the realization that the virus isn't going away so you could also have fundamentals take a hit as well. I mean I'm bearish and short reopening stocks. If we don't get a sell-off in the next week +/-, I'll probably close out most shorts for the time being just given the lack of near-term catalysts. So maybe that is your sign to go long.
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Insoxicated
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Honestly-I would not be surprised if the markets ended positive by Monday at the end of the day—but I really think we are in for some major market pain coming in the near to medium term. We are seeing record spikes in hospitalizations in many areas around the States in Covid—and we’ve barely entered the phase where we’ll see the guaranteed spikes from the protests. We are also seeing these spikes as we are transitioning to open even more businesses that make social distancing virtually impossible. Our markets and economy barely survived the first wave and needed an injection of trillions of dollars to artificially get us by—and instead of realizing how fragile our economy was and being careful—somehow a large portion of our public literally believes the virus is a hoax and is anti-careful.
Just look at China. They had an outbreak in a Beijing market in the past 24 hours—and they literally jumped all over it and is mandatory locking down surrounding areas and is ordering mandatory testing. They know how quickly and exponentially the disease spreads and the only way to combat it successfully is through extreme discipline. Look at Brazil—they had a politician conducting rallies during the outbreak—and look how they are doing now. They are getting ravaged. We have a president that is throwing a rally in a few days while our numbers are also rising. I blame China for lying about the virus initially which compromised our markets in the first wave. If our markets collapse due to a second wave—it will be completely due to our own stupidity and carelessness. I think the volatility in our markets will be directly correlated to how the hospitalization numbers look moving forward. I’d very much recommend following them closely and trend spotting.
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Todem
Footballguy
With an expense ratio of only 0.06% this is an incredibly inexpensive way to track the Dow 100 Dividend index.
Their top holdings are names you know well. They hold 98 positions. They have a low turnover ratio (under 12%), they pay a little over a 4% annual yield quarterly.
This is not an actively managed ETF/fund so it is a true index approach to dividends. Their standard deviation is 15.36%
They own 98 positions. This is a viable dividend strategy as part of an overall asset allocation.
Top holdings:
HD - 5.18%
XOM - 4.95%
INTC - 4.91%
BMY - 4.70%
PFE - 4.29%
PEP - 4.29%
VZ - 4.27%
KO - 4.26%
IBM - 4.05%
PG - 4.04%
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I have to say that moving that quote is pretty ridiculous. Politics are absolutely a facet that effect the market. The corporate tax cuts effected the markets too—- were any posts moved from the stock forum to the politics forum because of that? Covid is currently the biggest threat/wild card to our markets and the way our politicians handle it absolutely has relevance in regards how it effects our markets. Do you not agree? There is some crossover between politics and what our markets do—that’s just a fact. I’m not sure how the moderators or any other posters in here could possibly feel differently.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Thanks for pointing out TOS, thought my phone was just having problems.
Hopped into SRTY this morning.
Feeling decent about my stocks this morning. Basically about even. AMZN holding up and ZM, SHOP, FSLY, DDOG and TWLO up nicely. Also, those spacs FMCI and OPES doing well. I missed out on an $11 limit order on Friday for FMCI. I am still a hair down on both of those as I bought 1 day early and DCA’d a bit. Would be even or up on those two if I hadn’t gotten greedy on the limit order that never hit. Swung back up over 13 from where I saw it around 11.40.
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Insoxicated
No ####### clue. That and OPES were short term buys. First things I’ve bought based on things in here besides CYDY. Was just hoping for a pop once they announced, but unfortunately it was the day before Thursday. Based on one of the articles, they were looking for mid 20s but that was months down the road. I think OPES is supposed to have end of June as their deal is set, so FMCI is probably mid July if similar. At that point, I’d wait until at least the change over to the stock as that’s been the MO of these so far. Should have started with Draft Kings and Nikola. I wouldn’t expect anything like that so honestly even a 40-60% jump might be enough to run away. Unfortunately, sentiment has turned a bit so they may be longer holds.
I’m just glad to see they are up today. Might fall in my contrarian bucket with ZM and others that seem to be where people have run during March and April.
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beef
Footballguy
Seems like you still need to wait a few more days too. Not the day of the changeover but once it has happened and new money starts jumping in due to the changeover.
SouthJersey
Footballguy
Scooped some $LULU today. Buddy who works for a research company and covers retail said the only 2 stocks he currently likes in the sector are NKE and LULU.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed with your post overall, these two key points especially.
The US is really good at a few things.
Extreme discipline is not among those things.
I took some of the gains from my trading account already, will probably take more throughout the day. I won't be out entirely even in that account but will probably move towards half cash. (Not touching our other 9 accounts)
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As someone else mentioned, it looks like NKLA put premiums are fairly rich. I got burnt with NERV, and this feels dangerous because of that. Seems like there is some sentiment thinking this goes below 30...Is there just so much volatility in the market and with this stock causing high premiums? Is the sharp spike in price expected to fade given it’s a mostly hype stock at this point in time?
For example, it’s trading at $63 right now and you can sell a July 17 $60 put for $30 premium. Break even around $33. Or a JULY 17 $30 put for $6 premium, break even around $24.
Am I crazy to consider this?
For example, it’s trading at $63 right now and you can sell a July 17 $60 put for $30 premium. Break even around $33. Or a JULY 17 $30 put for $6 premium, break even around $24.
Am I crazy to consider this?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I just watched a breakdown of why Nikola could easily tank. Something like only 23 million of the 300 million shares are being publically traded right now and about 50 some million are about to become available from I think PIKE investors or something to that effect. Then even more institutional shares could be sold.
Look at the warrant prices.
Anyway it was a recent "Meet Kevin" youtube video.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Personally I'd have to know a lot about the company when I see a spread like that. It goes without saying there's someone on the other side of that trade and there's some reason they are willing to pay the spread.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Nikola really rubs me the wrong way. It just seems like the founder really wants to ride the Tesla wave and is trying to be really vocal. The whole comparison to Amazon (how?) and staying the company could be worth $100B seems to pander towards the stock price. Jeff Bezos could have care less and might still not care about the share price. They are still all about growth and finding new areas for high growth and aren’t shy about investing in one day or investing in CV prep and just not caring that they ate intro the earnings estimates. Imagine if they hadn’t invested all that time and money in one day shipping. CV could have really hurt them if they had to rely more on FedEx, etc. Nikola founder is already pumping stock price. That smells fishy to me like they want to make sure these secondary offerings go well.ghostguy123 said:
I’ll go on record that I know very little about them but my first impression would be that I wouldn’t be shocked if they were worth a lot less in 5 years and not even a blip on Tesla’s radar.
The past few months has got to have been a great time to be a day trader. That said, easily could have lost your shirt but the swings too high and too low have been crazy.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
To me, selling puts is all about collecting premiums while you wait for a stock you like to decline to a price you like. So if you like NKLA long term at $60, take the fat premium while you wait for it. If you like it long term at $30, take a smaller premium while you wait.Lacey said:
If you're just trying to make some money trading options and don't like it long term, stay away.
Todem
Footballguy
Agenda posting is what they are trying to keep out of here.jvdesigns2002 said:
It is clear who is a Democrat, Republican or an independent moderate or an independent conservative or independent liberal just by the tone of posts when we refer to policy and “if this or that would have been done”.
No one has to agree with one another on our policy viewpoints, nor am I going to sit here and post all the time that the “response” to Covid is why the markets are roiled.
Hogwash, and a waste of time and space in this particular thread.
Let’s stick to how to make money.....and not lose money in these volatile markets without having to throw in opinions on policy or lack there of etc etc etc etc. It really is not going to be information people need, nor want out of a stock thread.
I do not care what side of he fence you sit on. I simply don’t care. This thread is not about that. It is simply about one thing. Making money.
What I care about is giving information on how to navigate through this mess. I do not need to throw in “if the administration had taken this more seriously” or “The administration is doing a great job”. Irrelevant. What is relevant is "what can I do to protect, profit and prosper”.
What I care about is valuations, figuring out what companies will come out of this, which ones are in far more danger of underperforming etc etc etc due to a natural biological event and a self induced recession. Because the only fact we have is this was a government induced recession (which was needed and is hotly debated too BTW) Covid is a real thing and how do we navigate through this. Not what the government should be doing or not doing.
It has turned political (so predictable right?).
So let’s keep the political jabs (opinions) out of here. There is an entire political forum for all that.
Let’s talk stocks, markets and long term outlooks and for some the short term day trading that some like to do in here.
Pretty simple.
Good way to look at it.
@Todem You’ve mentioned eyeing DIS sub 95 or so, and other companies like EXC are on your master list. Does it make sense to sell a Jan 21 DIS95 put for 6.50 premium or Jan 21 EXC35 put for 3 premium if they’re Buy and hold stocks? Or do you not like those types of plays for some reason?
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think that regardless of what side of the political spectrum that anybody is on--that "tone" is also important. I manage a fine jewelry store in Newport Beach and many of my customers are wealthy conservatives that adore Trump. Many of them hate how non-chalant he's been about the virus and how he optically dismisses it. No matter what anybodies political affiliation is here-- the optics and tone about how serious the government is taking into account an issue that can have massive negative effects on the market is something that cannot be ignored. It is something that is very relevant to the discussion of the markets. You guys really think that poster came into this thread to solely bash a politician with no intention of relating it to the markets? I do not. I assure you that if our leadership and government set a tone where it looked like they are actually taking the virus a little more seriously--the markets would not be dropping the way they are. You cannot separate government/politics from the markets. That's just a reality. Instead of whining about it--how about people just use their fingers and scroll down. Eliminating relevant conversation never solves anything.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would think the problem there is that you're tying up a ton of collateral for a relatively small gain. 6% gain on $10k is nothing to sneeze at during normal times, but you may be missing a 50%+ move in the interim in this market to get that.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Oh for crying out loud give it a rest. He literally called people idiots in his post for agreeing with Trump. Keep this crap out of here.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Ignoring the facet of politics in a market thread is dangerous and irresponsible. You know better. You don't think our markets will react differently based on the results of our next election? You don't think our markets would have acted differently had covid been handled differently politically? I get that ignoring politics and acting like you are above that is the hot thing to do right now--but removing how politics can effect a markets from a thread that is designed to discuss markets is assinine. I'm sorry--I respect you and your input in this thread--but I just think you are off base on this particular take. I just did not digest his post as being random political agenda that was worthy of being removed at all. We can just agree to disagree.
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jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
He also said the markets got ahead of themselves because he felt that many people adopted non-chalant behavior that their elected leader was optically promoting. You don't see that as being relevant to the markets? You don't think that there is any reality to the fact that there are lots of citizens that will adopt their habits from the officials they vote for and that this could have a bearing on the markets? You think this entire facet should be ignored in a thread about the markets? In any case--I think I've made my point regardless of if anybody agrees or disagrees. Anyhow--sorry for the hijack--and lets just move on.
Sand
Footballguy
This is why in threads like this I just talk about red team/blue team if it's relevant. In this thread the only things I care about are green team (hopefully me) and red team (non-FFA losers).
You are the only one that saw value in his post. We all know that politics can impact the markets. So do pandemics and earnings reports. General political pandering isn’t helpful. Discussing a tweet from Trump that is potentially going to add tariffs in a week is great for this thread. It’s actionable and just stating facts. Same with a poll that let’s say has Trump or Biden ahead.
You are trying to equate not discussing people’s political beliefs with discussing factual and actionable info. To use your words, it’s asinine that you think we aren’t taking politics into this thread. We’ve discussed a ton when Trump was fighting with China. Your examples above are grasping at straws and no truly real things. It’s political beliefs and again not actionable. Who cares if CV could have been handled better? It’s happened the way it’s happened so the case increases and potential shut downs would matter in here. Discussing what could have been done differently doesn’t make sense in here. There’s another huge thread for that and another forum.
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Insoxicated
that wayjvdesigns2002
Footballguy
That's your decision. I've always enjoyed and respected your thoughts on this forum--but I'm also not going to lose sleep over somebody that wants to ignore me for having an opinion that is contrary to theirs and expaining it in a civil manner. Enjoy your day.
Exactly my point above. @jvdesigns2002 posted that the markets could have behaved differently if CV response was handled differently. How is that relevant in here? It’s not.
Also, there’s already been enough talked about but I am in no way making light of CV and the increased cases. I am only talking about this thread that I really enjoy and not wanting it to get merged with other threads where that topic is relevant.
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