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Taxguy said:
figured most have seen this CYDY press release this morning.  Surprised the Phase 3 in Mexico only going to have 25 people enrolled...maybe going thru the motions for approval?
 

CytoDyn and NIH of Mexico Complete Memorandum of Understanding to Conduct Small Covid-19 Phase 3 Trial for Severe and Critically Ill Patients
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I think thats a good interpretation (going through the motions).  With COVID escalating and the proven lack of downside (side effects of leronlimab), why not shoot first and ask questions later on this one.  Also, they'll have the US results to rely upon as well.

 
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sporthenry said:
Thanks for sharing. I'm working on my own so will share with you when it's in a presentable way. I think the easiest way to think about it is the Palomino investment is essentially a convert. They're guaranteed an 11% return first, so that is the debt portion. So at $400mn, they're essentially getting paid $44mn per year and as long as they don't pay that interest, that is building a higher principal and compounding the amount they get. So while the $400mn is obviously less than the $1.5bn residual value of the portfolio, if they don't pay interest (and hopefully principal down), that will be worth $550mn by year 3 and $600mn by year 4. Obviously, something would have gone horribly wrong if that happens and the equity is likely worth 0 in that scenario but guess that shows the time / value of this equity. 

But the thing I'm working (and struggling) on modeling is that after Palomino gets that 11% return, then Emergent get's its 27.5% share, of the entire amount (i.e. not the amount left after Palomino gets its 11% return). So for example, if Palomino had loaned them $100mn, their guaranteed return would be $11mn. So if the amount left on the waterfall to return to Palomino/Emergent is $11mn, Palomino gets it all. If it's $15mn, then Emergent essentially get's the next $4mn since that is 27.5% of $15mn. And if it's $20mn, then EMGC gets $5.5mn and Palomino get's $3.5mn on top of its $11mn guaranteed. So that is how I'm reading the catch-up. 

On the first question, I'm not entirely sure what you mean by reducing the benefits by premium payments? Do you mean like should they stop paying premiums? Or should you not take them out of your model? For me, I'm modeling out the portfolio as pretty much completely separate from EMGC. If they decide it isn't economical to pay some premiums, then that may accelerate the money returning. But that would also reduce the value of the portfolio. The portfolio seems to be in a place where maturities should exceed premiums so that reduces the need for capital. They need to build back up Premium Reserve Account (was $30mn) so that will give them a little breathing room if premiums exceed maturities for a quarter. Otherwise, if they need to pay premiums, someone will need to contribute capital and that likely means a 0 for the equity. I probably won't spend a ton of time on those downside cases. Thesis is built on things accelerating. The downside on a $0.30 case, is pretty obvious and there won't be any residual value. 
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Up 10% today on what appears to be no news. 

 
djmich said:
I think thats a good interpretation (going through the motions).  With COVID escalating and the proven lack of downside (side effects), why not shoot first and ask questions later on this one.
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Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of CytoDyn, commented: “We are very pleased with the confidence demonstrated by the NIH of Mexico in our drug, leronlimab, and we are both very motivated to initiate this trial quickly to help mitigate the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic on the citizens of Mexico. The anecdotal data received by CytoDyn (from over 70 COVID-19 critical patients who were treated under EIND in the U.S.) has impressed the NIH of Mexico and we believe with a small Phase 3 trial of only 25 patients, leronlimab could receive approval in Mexico very quickly. This Phase 3 trial is similar to our Phase 3 trial protocol in the U.S., with the exception of the number of patients.”

 
sporthenry said:
Don't call it a comeback story but tankers up today. Probably due to an upgrade from Joakim. Just need like 6 or 7 more days like this and STNG may be back to break-even. 
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The DHT fixture at 30K is about 2x Joakim's estimate. Not sure if it's an abberation or what, but I'll take it. 

 
eaganwildcats said:
Up 10% today on what appears to be no news. 
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I may or may not have done that. I was buying some things so figured I'd throw a few hundred bucks to start a position. That may be the other issue with this is liquidity. Only way to get a position may push the stock past $0.50. I'm still working on finishing up my model so will send it to you once I'm done. Hopefully today. I don't think it will move as quickly away from us as some of these other names. Just earnings will be massively important. 

 
sporthenry said:
I may or may not have done that. I was buying some things so figured I'd throw a few hundred bucks to start a position. That may be the other issue with this is liquidity. Only way to get a position may push the stock past $0.50. I'm still working on finishing up my model so will send it to you once I'm done. Hopefully today. I don't think it will move as quickly away from us as some of these other names. Just earnings will be massively important. 
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hehe. Hilarious hadn't looked at the volume. Might quite literally be only you if you happened to buy 4K shares. And yeah getting in & out is going to be a nightmare. Anything I throw in here I'm not expecting to get back for a few years probably. 

sporthenry said:
Also, which fixture was that? May have missed it. 
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DHT Hawk

 
sporthenry said:
This may be blasphemous but has anyone looked into $HGEN? It also looks like it reduces cytokine. I only found out about it when looking for CYDY on Twitter, lot of folks hoping it pops like CYDY. So may just be a slightly cheaper way to play it. Stock has run up from $1 to $3 but still cheaper than CYDY at $7. Just kidding, I know it doesn't work that way but HGEN's market cap is $700mn compared to CYDY at $3.6bn. I would assume HGEN doesn't have the other use cases? But I may just diversify a bit my cost basis is a bit too high in CYDY. 
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Another issue with HGEN. No liquidity. Stock barely trades, relatively speaking.

 
Well, a bit of a pause for me. Big Dow day, which is when I’m trailing. Profit taking after a big couple weeks but CYDY still rolling to keep me up overall.

So mad I didn’t buy SHLL on Thursday. In a couple other SPACs and thought in the 16s would be a good entry point and got busy and never jumped in. Would have doubled in 2 days SMH.

 
Lot of stuff sold off Thursday and Friday probably expecting all sorts of bad news over the weekend.  Nothing really happened that I am aware of that wasn't expected.  5% gains on all of that seems about right. 

Anyway, with CYDY with all this institutional buying to create their position, at what point does that stop?  How many trading days in a row can they create a 10% gain before they have fully established their position?

 
ghostguy123 said:
Lot of stuff sold off Thursday and Friday probably expecting all sorts of bad news over the weekend.  Nothing really happened that I am aware of that wasn't expected.  5% gains on all of that seems about right. 

Anyway, with CYDY with all this institutional buying to create their position, at what point does that stop?  How many trading days in a row can they create a 10% gain before they have fully established their position?
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And most important, when do we take gains to buy lambos or Highlanders?

 
ghostguy123 said:
Lot of stuff sold off Thursday and Friday probably expecting all sorts of bad news over the weekend.  Nothing really happened that I am aware of that wasn't expected.  5% gains on all of that seems about right. 

Anyway, with CYDY with all this institutional buying to create their position, at what point does that stop?  How many trading days in a row can they create a 10% gain before they have fully established their position?
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Like I said going out the door on Friday, it's impossible to know what the market was expecting. Things are better than feared in the sense that things didn't get exponentially worse. But I don't know how you can look at this data and see it as anything but obliterating a V-shaped recovery. Unless your V-shape rebound was in mid-2021. Clearly, states can't reopen at full capacity or anywhere near it. The only argument I can think is that the people in the South are spreading in more b/c they're inside w/ air conditioning. So maybe the rest of the country won't be as bad. You know, until they go inside and turn the heat on in a few months. 

I have to run my net exposure. I just don't like this market at all. But the cruise lines, air lines and PENN seem too juicy to cover shorts. Unless you really don't think we're getting a 2nd wave in the fall, I see such a small chance that any cruise line leaves a US port in 2020. Just feels like we're getting close to the next stimulus bill and/or more Fed action. 

 
sporthenry said:
Like I said going out the door on Friday, it's impossible to know what the market was expecting. Things are better than feared in the sense that things didn't get exponentially worse. But I don't know how you can look at this data and see it as anything but obliterating a V-shaped recovery. Unless your V-shape rebound was in mid-2021. Clearly, states can't reopen at full capacity or anywhere near it. The only argument I can think is that the people in the South are spreading in more b/c they're inside w/ air conditioning. So maybe the rest of the country won't be as bad. You know, until they go inside and turn the heat on in a few months. 

I have to run my net exposure. I just don't like this market at all. But the cruise lines, air lines and PENN seem too juicy to cover shorts. Unless you really don't think we're getting a 2nd wave in the fall, I see such a small chance that any cruise line leaves a US port in 2020. Just feels like we're getting close to the next stimulus bill and/or more Fed action. 
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With elections in November, it seems the Fed has incentive to stimulate.

 
Sandeman said:
Another issue with HGEN. No liquidity. Stock barely trades, relatively speaking.
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Thanks for  your responses throughout. I don't even know what I don't know about the drug. TWTR folks seem to claim it attacks the virus better than CYDY but they're obviously talking their books so I can't really evaluate either side. But either way, even if $CYDY becomes the next wonder drug, seems like it would drag HGEN with it. Given they're in a similar class of drugs and at the very least, folks would be looking for the next big drug in the class. Doesn't seem like a 0 sum game, at least in the cytokine world. And for me, the drop from $4 to $2 seems less painful than the drop from $7 to $2. Folks can disagree with the downside prices on both but that is just sort of how I'm thinking about it. Not selling CYDY but losing appetite to buy more. 

 
So I'm trying to back into CYDY timing here.

2 weeks from last patient enrolled fro Phase2 Covid trial results.  They announced they hit 75, which seems was the minimum target on on 6/11.  Two weeks from that would have been last Thursday.  The confusing part is that they were enrolling beyond the 75...so not sure when they snap the line.

2-3 weeks for interim analysis from Phase3 Covid trials is what Nader said in the 6/11 Press Release.  3 weeks would be this Thursday.

So, in theory we should be days away from some big data points.

I have enough invested in CYDY so not gonna roll the dice more and would expect a stock pop with good results.

The question for me now is do I make a leveraged market bet that positive results would move the market.  The downside would seem limited to normal market movement as I don't think SPX is banking on Leronlimab.  So there is normal leveraged bet market risk.  The upside is that meaningful FDA blessed results would seem like they will get a lot of market play.  We've seen how other announcements have moved the market.

Follow up consideration is to make a move now and/or wait for the PR (where you run the risk of missing the initial market pop but my guess is that with my ear to the ground closely I would react early enough to ride some of the wave).

Thoughts?

 
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-OZ- said:
With elections in November, it seems the Fed has incentive to stimulate.
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I know the Fed isn't immune to pressures but I don't think the Fed cares that much about it. J. Pow was a disciple of Yellen so I'm not sure he's worried about his job nor do I think Fed chairs think that way. They strike me as more 'God complex' types who are afraid of going down in the history books as being in charge when the next Great Depression hits. I suppose that is a distinction without a difference since the Fed will still be incentivized to act. I just also don't know what they can do, besides just pumping more trillions in. The bond market is very healthy. Think Junk bond market just had its busiest week ever. So there really isn't anything else to do there. Bankruptcies have ticked up but not to the systemic level. Could buy troubled assets but not sure who that supports. Pumping trillions will help, don't get me wrong, but will just further inflate asset prices while trickling through to the economy. 

The fiscal policy is what really matters. This recent uptick may give Congress enough votes to pass another bill since it's now hitting Republican states and will flow through to jobs. I have no idea why Dems are pushing another bill which could help save the current administration nor why they aren't pumping Trillions in. But that is for another thread. 

 
CR69 said:
News today was that a huge portion of their sales is restaurants which if they get shut down again in some areas could hurt their sales. 
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Double downgrade at Barclays isn't helping -https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/barclays-double-downgrades-beyond-meat-says-meat-supply-chain-has-bounced-back.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter

Double upgrades or downgrades (going from buy to sell or sell to buy) tend to get noticed since it's a complete reversal by the analyst. Don't have access to the piece but headline says it's due to the meat supply chain bouncing back. I honestly don't think a few months of restaurant closures matter to a company not making money but they're losing a chance to grab market share if the supply chain bounced back this quickly. 

 
Nice to see +8% on NARI today since I dipped my toes back in a couple weeks ago. Seems so quaint, though, next to the monster that CYDY has become. +8% on CYDY would cause us to wonder what's wrong.

 
sporthenry said:
. 

The fiscal policy is what really matters. This recent uptick may give Congress enough votes to pass another bill since it's now hitting Republican states and will flow through to jobs. I have no idea why Dems are pushing another bill which could help save the current administration nor why they aren't pumping Trillions in. But that is for another thread. 
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Fair enough, this was my point. 

I do think the possibility of another stimulus package is relevant to stocks. 

 
Added more JPM and MAR about an hour ago.

Added some ARKF pre-market.

Up to 60% equities, 40% cash

Any strong opinions on CVX?...has been a bit of a dog.

 
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