Stock Thread (27 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Hedge funds are required to first ask if there are shares available to borrow before they execute a short sale.  Loan departments at prime brokerage shops will let funds know how much is available and at what cost to carry.  The riskier the stock the more it will cost to short it.  If you fail to secure a borrow before you execute a short sale, you can be in all sorts of trouble.  Your prime broker can kick you out.

GME was a black swan event.  I lack the brain power to explain how it got above 100% of the float short - that's highly unusual.  Schwab reports short interest at 88% as of 1/15 so I don't know what to believe.  

Vulnerable companies are always going to attract shorts. That's been the case since the beginning of time.  But betting against a company comes at a significant cost and that needs to be hammered in here. 

I spent nearly 10 years as the head trader at a dedicated short shop.  It sucked.  It was stressful, my boss was a thrice divorced Bobby Knight clone and I actively rooted for the demise of certain companies.  I got interrogated twice by the SEC, had to turn over all of Forrestmail to them (that was fun), nearly got us kicked out of at Goldman Sachs for shorting a stock I thought we got a borrow on but didn't, and quit after my first wife left me but also right after I got a nice 6 figure bonus once the short positions in subprime finally worked out.  

Short selling as a career sucks.  I never want to do it again. But the misconceptions in here need some corrections.

That's all.  Good night!

On the other hand, maybe that's why you were clear of all wrong doing rather than getting an $800 fine.

 

[General Malaise]

FWIW short sellers have had their best year every this year, and it's not even close.

This post-covid bull run has been the biggest blessing shorts have ever gotten.  Every dumb pump and dump has thousands of retail robinhooders just itching to jump onboard.  The MMs pump some failing chinese stock 300% in pre-market and retail starts jumping on board and running it to 2000%.  Then the MMs and shorts pull the plug and the thing fades alllllll the way back down to where it came from.

These guys are making more in one trade then they used to make in a month.  It's only in the last month or so that shorting has gotten difficult for them again.  Prior to that every short seller I follow was 10x'ing their previous best year this past year, at an absolute minimum.  And there is zero hyperbole to that.

Ok, so serious question: why aren't WE doing this?  If it's so lucrative and so obvious, why aren't we investing this way instead of buying CYDY and AMC and penny stocks?   

Let's all do this then.  Right? Let's be the new FBGWallStreetBets?

And I'm not trying to be a Ricardo but I mean.....i want all y'all to have lambos.  Except one of you. @Aloof

 

[Aloof]

Ok, so serious question: why aren't WE doing this?  If it's so lucrative and so obvious, why aren't we investing this way instead of buying CYDY and AMC and penny stocks?   

Let's all do this then.  Right? Let's be the new FBGWallStreetBets?

And I'm not trying to be a Ricardo but I mean.....i want all y'all to have lambos.  Except one of you. @Aloof

I hope your daughter punches you in the ####....really hard.

 

[BassNBrew]

I hope your daughter punches you in the ####....really hard.

The "really hard" was a nice touch.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Ok, so serious question: why aren't WE doing this?  If it's so lucrative and so obvious, why aren't we investing this way instead of buying CYDY and AMC and penny stocks?   

Let's all do this then.  Right? Let's be the new FBGWallStreetBets?

And I'm not trying to be a Ricardo but I mean.....i want all y'all to have lambos.  Except one of you. @Aloof

WSB has 7 million subscribers.  Not sure we have the same type of leverage. 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I hate when mom and dad fight.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Alternate replies:

~Your ex sounds hot

~I like abuse, she still single?

~Interesting and informative comment. Thank you for posting.

 

[Navin Johnson]

I certainly see no compelling reason for the government to make it much easier for small retail investors to manipulate meme stocks in near bankrupt companies. Particularly when such a proposal hurts basically everyone that isn't managing their own investments, which is a lot bigger community.

Gamestop, while not crushing it, was nowhere near bankruptcy sans the help of HF managers tanking it.  They had around $6B in revenues with a new console set to release and were being shorted at $4.

Keith Gill (ie deepf###ingvalue) outlining the fundamentals of being long on GME 6 months ago, even citing Scion Asset Management holding asimilar position

https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U

 

[GoBirds]

Ok, so serious question: why aren't WE doing this?  If it's so lucrative and so obvious, why aren't we investing this way instead of buying CYDY and AMC and penny stocks?   

Let's all do this then.  Right? Let's be the new FBGWallStreetBets?

And I'm not trying to be a Ricardo but I mean.....i want all y'all to have lambos.  Except one of you. @Aloof

This sounds good...you jump in and let us know we will be right behind you!

 

[Joe Mammy]

Ok, so serious question: why aren't WE doing this?  If it's so lucrative and so obvious, why aren't we investing this way instead of buying CYDY and AMC and penny stocks?   

Let's all do this then.  Right? Let's be the new FBGWallStreetBets?

And I'm not trying to be a Ricardo but I mean.....i want all y'all to have lambos.  Except one of you. @Aloof

Do you have long hair, a headband, a cool cat and access to the basement?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Thanks, I appreciate your insight and explaining how this works.

Say I want to short XYZ.  I go to my broker, who has to have XYZ available, right?  So I buy the short which means I borrow XYZ and I turn around and sell it.  Now owe my broker XYZ - I pay interest on my loan, and the loan comes due in a certain time period.

I suppose the broker could re-aquire that share XYZ on the open market and allow me to short it again, right?  Now, one share has been shorted twice.  

Is this anywhere close to accurate?

In the case of GameStop it was 140% of the total shares, over 400% of the float at one point, so yeah, there has to be a regulatory quirk or a leverage thing going on here. I was involved in the fallout of a case over 20 years ago where a guy made boatloads by shorting well over 100% of the delisted stock of LTV Steel. He shorted 170million shares of a company that only had 122mil shares outstanding.  https://case-law.vlex.com/vid/47-f-3d-857-597015302 
 

When GM and others use the term “borrow” in this context, it’s not being used in the normal sense of what we consider that word to mean. 

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Gamestop, while not crushing it, was nowhere near bankruptcy sans the help of HF managers tanking it.  They had around $6B in revenues with a new console set to release and were being shorted at $4.

Keith Gill (ie deepf###ingvalue) outlining the fundamentals of being long on GME 6 months ago, even citing Scion Asset Management holding asimilar position

https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U

I think he was mostly all in on this play back in 2019.  It’s likely much or most of the WSB Robinhood traders were blind followers, the cliched kids in basements, but the traders who lead this were sophisticated and took their positions based on sound, traditional analysis.  

 

[bcnfinance]

What’s the delay on short interest % data? I’ve heard mixed things but I don’t think it is “real time.”

 

[Bonfire]

I bought into the options thing hitting a peak on Friday for GME.  As a result I sold out of 80-90% of my remaining shares this week.  If history is any guide shares will be well over 1000 next week #timing

As I got in so early I don't have paperhands, maybe plywood hands.

 

[moleculo]

In the case of GameStop it was 140% of the total shares, over 400% of the float at one point, so yeah, there has to be a regulatory quirk or a leverage thing going on here. I was involved in the fallout of a case over 20 years ago where a guy made boatloads by shorting well over 100% of the delisted stock of LTV Steel. He shorted 170million shares of a company that only had 122mil shares outstanding.  https://case-law.vlex.com/vid/47-f-3d-857-597015302 
 

When GM and others use the term “borrow” in this context, it’s not being used in the normal sense of what we consider that word to mean. 

I deleted (hid) my response because I did a bit of googling and figured out that what I described is probably how it happened - it appears shares can be recycled and shorted again.  It looks like this can happen without naked shorting.

 

[GROOT]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im0klpFdAxI

How will the stock market react to this?

 

[McBokonon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im0klpFdAxI

How will the stock market react to this?

Non-story. We know these aren’t 100% effective, he tested positive around the window where they say these vaccines need to complete their process, plus he isn’t showing symptoms which also might be attributable to the vaccine - still got it, but the severity was beaten down. 

And man, that 20 million doses chyron is incredibly misleading and disingenuous. I’ll leave that to the other board, though.

 

[TripItUp]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im0klpFdAxI

How will the stock market react to this?

Nothingburger 

 

[Sideshow Bob]

We already knew getting vaccinated wouldn't completely prevent people, even the vaccinated, from catching it.

 

[glvsav37]

so i'm a rookie schmuck, was reading the posts about SFIO and saw one or 2 now.

can someone explain this like i'm 3 and can I get in on this monday when the markets open? Anything I can do today? 

 

[McBokonon]

CNBC Pro had an interview with Cathie Wood that had an enticing enough headline for me to sign up for the 7 day free trial. She talked about how they manage position sizing, why her funds selling something is often just valuation based and not a thesis change. The thing that made me sign up was the headline said there was one stock she wouldn’t sell, though, regardless of valuation, and that was $CRSP. I’m sticking with $FLGT but that’s a pretty solid vote of confidence for you CRSP longs.

I am now canceling my free trial.

 

[General Malaise]

This sounds good...you jump in and let us know we will be right behind you!

Lolz....

I am absolute positively terrified of shorting stocks.  Call me a Nancy or a wuss or whatever but I haven't shorted a stock personally since I left the dark side on 2008.  I've used some short ETFs as a proxy but got out the second they worked against me.  I don't have the courage to short individual stocks for myself. 

BUT....I'm all for lambos so lesssssssgggoooooooll!!!!!!*

*I'm too fat for a Lamborghini but an EV F-150?

 

[Sideshow Bob]

Big Tech War '21. Coming soon to a pocket protector near you.

"Technology does not need vast troves of personal data stitched together across dozens of websites and apps in order to succeed. Advertising existed and thrived for decades without it, and we're here today because the path of least resistance is rarely the path of wisdom.

If a business is built on misleading users on data exploitation, on choices that are no choices at all, then it does not deserve our praise. It deserves reform.

We should not look away from the bigger picture and a moment of rampant disinformation and conspiracy theory is juiced by algorithms. We can no longer turn a blind eye to a theory of technology that says all engagement is good engagement, the longer the better, and all with the goal of collecting as much data as possible.

Too many are still asking the question, 'How much can we get away with?' When they need to be asking, 'What are the consequences?'

What are the consequences of prioritizing conspiracy theories and violent incitement simply because of the high rates of engagement?

What are the consequences of not just tolerating but rewarding content that undermines public trust in life-saving vaccinations?

What are the consequences of seeing thousands of users joining extremist groups and then perpetuating an algorithm that recommends even more?

It is long past time to stop pretending that this approach doesn't come with a cause. A polarization of lost trust, and yes, of violence.

A social dilemma cannot be allowed to become a social catastrophe."

-Tim Cook at Brussels' International Data Privacy Day

 

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder who he was talking about.

 

[TripItUp]

So anybody want to take a crack at what happens next week with the market?

S&P down last week...the beginning of a bear February? 

 

[McBokonon]

I wonder who he was talking about.

The Facebook v. Apple battle should be fun. 

 

[TripItUp]

CNBC Pro had an interview with Cathie Wood that had an enticing enough headline for me to sign up for the 7 day free trial. She talked about how they manage position sizing, why her funds selling something is often just valuation based and not a thesis change. The thing that made me sign up was the headline said there was one stock she wouldn’t sell, though, regardless of valuation, and that was $CRSP. I’m sticking with $FLGT but that’s a pretty solid vote of confidence for you CRSP longs.

I am now canceling my free trial.

I sold my CRSP position for a handsome profit, but I’ve been touting it long in this forum.  I’ll be back in long when I think it’s close to the bottom. 
 

This technology will truly change the world. 

 

[General Malaise]

Do you have long hair, a headband, a cool cat and access to the basement?

I grew my hair out in quarantine.  Went 9 months without a haircut.  In the time it takes a woman to grow a baby, I grew the most hideous mullet mankind has ever seen.  It was so bad I regained my virginity.

I used to wear a sweatband when I regularly went to the gym for body pump with the other women.  I sweat like Stryker flying the Airplane.  But now I'm just gloriously plump and only sweat when I tie my shoes or eat thai food. 

Got a rescue kitten this past summer.  She hates me like most gals do.  Except when it's 6am and I'm the only one who is up to feed her.  Then we're besties. 

I have a four level house but not a basement in the traditional sense.  I think the guy who built our home in 1964 was Mike Brady. 

 

[General Malaise]

CNBC Pro had an interview with Cathie Wood that had an enticing enough headline for me to sign up for the 7 day free trial. She talked about how they manage position sizing, why her funds selling something is often just valuation based and not a thesis change. The thing that made me sign up was the headline said there was one stock she wouldn’t sell, though, regardless of valuation, and that was $CRSP. I’m sticking with $FLGT but that’s a pretty solid vote of confidence for you CRSP longs.

I am now canceling my free trial.

This is the sort of information I am here for. 

 

[berndog]

I grew my hair out in quarantine.  Went 9 months without a haircut.  In the time it takes a woman to grow a baby, I grew the most hideous mullet mankind has ever seen.  It was so bad I regained my virginity.

I used to wear a sweatband when I regularly went to the gym for body pump with the other women.  I sweat like Stryker flying the Airplane.  But now I'm just gloriously plump and only sweat when I tie my shoes or eat thai food. 

Got a rescue kitten this past summer.  She hates me like most gals do.  Except when it's 6am and I'm the only one who is up to feed her.  Then we're besties. 

I have a four level house but not a basement in the traditional sense.  I think the guy who built our home in 1964 was Mike Brady. 

This is the sort of information I am here for. 

 

[[icon]]

I sold my CRSP position for a handsome profit, but I’ve been touting it long in this forum.  I’ll be back in long when I think it’s close to the bottom. 
 

This technology will truly change the world. 

Familiar with CRISPR tech as a buddy works with it at St Jude. 
 

What's bottom / Buy in point look like to you? 

 

[Sideshow Bob]

CNBC Pro had an interview with Cathie Wood that had an enticing enough headline for me to sign up for the 7 day free trial. She talked about how they manage position sizing, why her funds selling something is often just valuation based and not a thesis change. The thing that made me sign up was the headline said there was one stock she wouldn’t sell, though, regardless of valuation, and that was $CRSP. I’m sticking with $FLGT but that’s a pretty solid vote of confidence for you CRSP longs.

I am now canceling my free trial.

I sold my CRSP position for a handsome profit, but I’ve been touting it long in this forum.  I’ll be back in long when I think it’s close to the bottom. 
 

This technology will truly change the world. 

Jan '22 $130 Bid/Ask is 30.70/34.50. Call it $32, and 25% is a nice neighborhood to hang out in with the downside being owning it under $100.

 

[General Malaise]

From a tax standpoint, a lot of these dudes are going to realize short term cap gains and I'm guessing not all of them have ever had to do that before.  Further, I'm speculating that they may not be prepared in April '22 to pay for these taxes and will have to peel off some more stock to raise funds to pay taxes.  If that's the case, how would one establish option positions to capitalize on what might be a pretty good sized liquidation in some of these names?  

Is this a crazy thought?  

 

[Desert_Power]

Gamestop, while not crushing it, was nowhere near bankruptcy sans the help of HF managers tanking it.  They had around $6B in revenues with a new console set to release and were being shorted at $4.

Keith Gill (ie deepf###ingvalue) outlining the fundamentals of being long on GME 6 months ago, even citing Scion Asset Management holding asimilar position

https://youtu.be/GZTr1-Gp74U

It's revenue has been falling for years, it was no longer profitable even before COVID, and couldn't even find a buyer to take them private. They have not issued capital in this to retire debt and get closer to a profitable margin (like AMC has). Over 80% of video game sales were digital before COVID. Good luck here.

 

[Desert_Power]

The Facebook v. Apple battle should be fun. 

I've heard this rhetoric mentioned a few times on podcasts. Anyone have a cliffnotes on what Apple is actually doing to fight against Facebook in their new OS? May switch over from Samsung for the next iteration.

 

[McBokonon]

I've heard this rhetoric mentioned a few times on podcasts. Anyone have a cliffnotes on what Apple is actually doing to fight against Facebook in their new OS? May switch over from Samsung for the next iteration.

Apple is going to require apps to disclose exactly what data they are collecting and sharing and gain permission to do so. Facebook is arguing this will hamper small business’s ability to effectively market to consumers if many people opt out. I assume the latter is what they’re saying publicly when they’re really worried about ad revenue in general, but their public argument isn’t completely wrong, either. I have just enough experience using FB data to target ads to know that people opting out, which they WILL do if it’s presented prominently, would make FB ads less effective but also #### Facebook.

 

[stbugs]

I sold my CRSP position for a handsome profit, but I’ve been touting it long in this forum.  I’ll be back in long when I think it’s close to the bottom. 
 

This technology will truly change the world. 

I’m still holding my 120 shares. Wish I bought a second round on 3/16 like I did with Roku and some others that I bought  on 2/27 and 3/9. Was buying but being cautious as the could get down to 2008 levels were still being discussed.

If it drops down more I may target it a bit more aggressively to add. Good to have targets.

 

[stbugs]

From a tax standpoint, a lot of these dudes are going to realize short term cap gains and I'm guessing not all of them have ever had to do that before.  Further, I'm speculating that they may not be prepared in April '22 to pay for these taxes and will have to peel off some more stock to raise funds to pay taxes.  If that's the case, how would one establish option positions to capitalize on what might be a pretty good sized liquidation in some of these names?  

Is this a crazy thought?  

Actually, we discussed this a bit a while back. We weren’t talking as much about selling to pay taxes but that’s a good thought. What we discussed was that there was a lot of buying at the bottom and that come late February through April there are going to be a lot of big gains (my portfolio was around triple the bottom) that will become long term capital gains going from a possible 40% tax hit down to 20%.

What you mentioned kind of doubles that up, so to answer your question, no, it’s not crazy.

 

[TripItUp]

Familiar with CRISPR tech as a buddy works with it at St Jude. 
 

What's bottom / Buy in point look like to you? 

To me it’s just being moved by macro these days.   So my buying point is less about price and more about market timing.  
 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

If we're not talking gravy I'm going back to bed

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's revenue has been falling for years, it was no longer profitable even before COVID, and couldn't even find a buyer to take them private. They have not issued capital in this to retire debt and get closer to a profitable margin (like AMC has). Over 80% of video game sales were digital before COVID. Good luck here.

Not that I'm here to argue GME fundamentals relative to its current value as that's obviously not what's at play for $320, but at the time that guy got in it was a very reasonable fundamentals trade.

The stock was priced as if there were a 99% chance of the company going bankrupt despite the company having good cash reserves, little debt, and heading into a new console cycle where both earnings and the stock has historically very predictably performed very well.  Then they brought in some great executive talent on top of that.

Lots of us in this thread have made purchases like Macy's and Budweiser and Kohl's and other stuff you could say similar things about as Gamestop when they were priced as low as Gamestop was at the time we're talking about and Gamestop did more to show they deserved a little bounce back than any of them did.

And then of course they signed the much debated deal with Microsoft that, depending on how you read it, showed they were finding ways to get a cut of ongoing digital revenue.

 

[Dwayne Hoover]

My immediate goal for the week is getting to 50% cash.  I really am not comfortable with the direction of things and feel like the market is heading for a big correction in the short term.

If I'm wrong here, that's great.

 

[Capella]

So anybody want to take a crack at what happens next week with the market?

S&P down last week...the beginning of a bear February? 

Could be bumpy till this game stop thing settles down. Not sure anybody really can tell right now, things are way too volatile. It’ll be fine by the summer imo. 

 

[Sideshow Bob]

It's revenue has been falling for years, it was no longer profitable even before COVID, and couldn't even find a buyer to take them private. They have not issued capital in this to retire debt and get closer to a profitable margin (like AMC has). Over 80% of video game sales were digital before COVID. Good luck here.

They also have new agreements with MSFT (and supposedly Sony), where they get a % of digital sales made on consoles they sell. That has to help. 

 

[Capella]

so i'm a rookie schmuck, was reading the posts about SFIO and saw one or 2 now.

can someone explain this like i'm 3 and can I get in on this monday when the markets open? Anything I can do today? 

There were like 2 super detailed posts in here in the last 5-10 pages. Probably as good as it will get info-wise for whatever this company is. 

 

[glvsav37]

There were like 2 super detailed posts in here in the last 5-10 pages. Probably as good as it will get info-wise for whatever this company is. 

I see that, but I'm confused about the ability to trade (or buy it) or not. I thought I saw something about friday was the last day it could be traded? 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Anyone just buying puts instead of building cash?  Before WSB's got a hold of them this was kind of the whole idea of options, right?  Hedge against a big pullback without having to unload your positions and pay a bunch of taxes?

 

[Desert_Power]

Not that I'm here to argue GME fundamentals relative to its current value as that's obviously not what's at play for $320, but at the time that guy got in it was a very reasonable fundamentals trade.

The stock was priced as if there were a 99% chance of the company going bankrupt despite the company having good cash reserves, little debt, and heading into a new console cycle where both earnings and the stock has historically very predictably performed very well.  Then they brought in some great executive talent on top of that.

Lots of us in this thread have made purchases like Macy's and Budweiser and Kohl's and other stuff you could say similar things about as Gamestop when they were priced as low as Gamestop was at the time we're talking about and Gamestop did more to show they deserved a little bounce back than any of them did.

And then of course they signed the much debated deal with Microsoft that, depending on how you read it, showed they were finding ways to get a cut of ongoing digital revenue.

No one is saying you can't make money trading these type of companies. People made (and lost) plenty of money on Hertz and Luckin too. Speculating in companies priced near bankruptcy happens all the time and can be profitable long or short.

If you follow the thread back, I'm pushing back on the idea that the gov't should tax the rest of the trading universe in order to make this type of stuff easier for retail investors to trade in. As was proposed.

I also disagree with the takes about their financial/fundamental position, but that's not particularly interesting to me to continue down. Would rather spend my time on E-Trade studying companies with better growth prospects. Trends are clear enough on this IMO. Good luck to those that think differently.

 

[Dwayne Hoover]

Anyone just buying puts instead of building cash?  Before WSB's got a hold of them this was kind of the whole idea of options, right?  Hedge against a big pullback without having to unload your positions and pay a bunch of taxes?

Yes and I have a couple open.  Definitely open to ideas for others.  If you have any in mind, would love to hear.

Still going to build cash in addition regardless.  While I will have some puts open, they won't be huge plays.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

If we're not talking gravy I'm going back to bed

My damn kid ate mah gravy. "It was in there for like a week".  So pissed right now.