dkp993
Footballguy
I’m still upside down a bit, in at just under 19, but I’d considered it too. But like Cap Im a gambler so likely wouldn’t. Though my confidence that this will home run is lessening every day approval doesn’t come.
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Stock Thread (35 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
Yea, they’re making us sweat it out for sure. I’m no less confident than before but there’s always risk. As far as I can tell the data is really good so I’m just rolling with that. Nothing in common with cydy at all, really, from what I can tell.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
From a management perspective for sure. But the FDA certainly doesn’t seem to be giving them any more love.
Capella
Footballguy
That’s not true at all. Cydy never even got close to this far in the process. The fda told them to kick rocks and not to apply and they worked with Hgen through the trial and application process. Honestly couldn’t be any different, but I get the recency bias of cydy blowing up.
Hgen’s delay could be as simple as they moved all hands on deck to approve Pfizer (this isn’t speculation, reports say that’s what they did). I don’t think a delay means a denial, if it was a denial they would just deny it. Why would they wait for that?
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Capella
Footballguy
and fwiw (nothing, I’m just some idiot) I think Hgen gets approved and then bought out by some big pharma. They’re too small or a company to handle this kind of capacity (which may be a problem or a reason for the delay!)
Or they could get denied and the company is dead this time next year lol
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
SAVA, wait :(
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I've considered multiple times grabbing the profit I have on my Sept Calls, given the proximity to the date. Kinda feels no-win at this point.
If, Then
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Wondering at this point if it's still all-hands to get Moderna approval as well, meaning it's another month before it even gets serious consideration, or if we're back to some semblance of normalcy now that one's been approved.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
It certainly looks better historically. An isn't out of the realm of possibilities that it could still halve from here. Though that seems the less likely scenario.
McBokonon
Footballguy
That $400 was Cowen (I think) downgrading way after it dropped already. A lot of times analysts are just responding to price action after the fact and are short-term focused. Pretty much meaningless for long term investing or swing trading.
But I DO want to see another quarter from them before doing anything - the last one was a surprise on the downside but this seems overdone.
I don’t see any near term catalysts but they’ve still got a nice trajectory for sales. If it gets under $500, it would be really tempting for a long term buy.
It does but you’ve got two months till the next quarter so might be more downside. The 1 month and 6 month charts are a ski slope down.
McBokonon
Footballguy
That's why I'm not in a hurry and willing to wait until then at least. But it's a good company - if anyone figures out the next Seltzer-like trend, it'll be them. Never even bothered to put them on my watchlist but they're there now.
Capella
Footballguy
I would expect moderna to get the same all hands on deck treatment, but obviously we don’t know if that means they are putting literally everybody on it or they have some set aside for companies like Hgen. Could certainly be a factor.
The whack due to that quarter was 25% and it’s down another almost 20% since then.
I remember the recommendation, glad I didn’t spend time looking back then. Definitely a good company and probably cheap right now looking out 5 years. It just seems like it’s heading cheaper for the next couple months.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Banked +30% on NRGU today. Not bad for a week's work. Probably exited too early but needed a winner.
Sand
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
RBLX you got triple digits in you. Make it happen.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Was up 2x last week and just sold for a 12% profit. Just keeps getting hammered.
I want a Alzheimer cure as much as anyone but the allegations are troubling. Need to see some big insider buying before jumping back in.
Anyone else in this?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Was thinking about picking up some of your old friend before EOD.Quick math in my head says I'm 88% invested, y'all should get your hedges in
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
"Your brokeragelink account is not eligible for this product." 
What the...? Since when?
What the...? Since when?
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McBokonon
Footballguy
I don’t own AFRM, but I’d be taking a second look here if I did. They get a lot of their business from PTON and if the latter is cutting prices on their main product and it’s because demand is low, that’s not great.
ETA: I don’t know that’s why they cut the price, just spitballing
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I just sold my whooping 3 remaining shares for about a 20% gain. Priced like a tech company in a segment where the tech is really a fad industry.
I don’t think I would invest any money on an Alzheimer’s indication at this time, it’s an absolute minefield.
And the company is sketchy as best.
This is how to think about HGEN.
I firmly believe something is holding up authorization, most likely checking a box on the CMC part of the filing. The world has literally run out of Tocilizumab for Covid, after selling several billions this year. As a better drug with a broader patient base, at some point in time lenzilumab will be in the same situation, supply constrained. It sucks to wait for EUA but it’s highly likely the outcome remains the same.
Capella
Footballguy
yea I’ve used the down periods these past few months to buy a substantial amount more. I’m not really sweating it but I get why people are.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
How much longer are we thinking until we know something with HGEN? I realize it's already longer than expected but my share count there is modest and I was thinking with this being such a binary event, call options are actually rather cheap. That would help keep a similar upside while limiting the potential losses with a bad result, since shares are basically dead with a bad result anyway (I'm looking at you, NERV).
October 15, November 19, or February 18 are the expiry dates available. Was thinking Nov/Feb to be safe but man could really load up on Oct as they are quite cheap if we'll know before then.
ETA: Are these things usually announced after hours? I guess that's the other risk with calls is you can miss the big spike and by the time options open back up the thing has waterfalled back down (I'm looking at you, NNOX).
October 15, November 19, or February 18 are the expiry dates available. Was thinking Nov/Feb to be safe but man could really load up on Oct as they are quite cheap if we'll know before then.
ETA: Are these things usually announced after hours? I guess that's the other risk with calls is you can miss the big spike and by the time options open back up the thing has waterfalled back down (I'm looking at you, NNOX).
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This stock has been torched monthly around options expiration. I’ll admit I bought more at $15.xx a few weeks ago.
It’s pretty much known a large holder sells options then manipulates the price so the options expire worthless. Holders who don’t want to ride the roller coaster sell when the price bounces back. If EUA is granted that game ends.
Capella
Footballguy
yea I haven’t touched options. That game isn’t for me.
what is your price target on this if an EUA hits? I’m curious if a buyout is coming behind it.
Tough question.
I have to sell some on the news and I expect I’m not alone on that. I still expect a BARDA contract which may or may not be shared along with the EUA news.
I think it’s worth $30+ the day of the news. There could be momentum which takes it higher, maybe much higher. I plan to watch the ticker all day.
I think a buyout could be in the $60 to $75 range.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea along the lines of my thoughts. 35 or so eventually on EUA, 50-60 on buyout. I see some saying a buyout could be 7-10b but those people aren’t realistic to me.
Here is a ticker to watch tomorrow $AUPH.
Biotech has been awful since February. AUPH has a very good approved drug that launched somewhat slow due to Covid. Buyout rumors are getting hot, starting after Monday’s announcement of $TRIL purchase by Pfizer. Like almost all biotech short interest is high.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/auph/short-interest
AUPH is up 30%+ already this week. I’m thinking lots of short covering into the weekend, let’s see. I have 1000 shares at about $13. I was deep red earlier in August.
Biotech has been awful since February. AUPH has a very good approved drug that launched somewhat slow due to Covid. Buyout rumors are getting hot, starting after Monday’s announcement of $TRIL purchase by Pfizer. Like almost all biotech short interest is high.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/auph/short-interest
AUPH is up 30%+ already this week. I’m thinking lots of short covering into the weekend, let’s see. I have 1000 shares at about $13. I was deep red earlier in August.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Maybe the way I’ll play this is through $GENI, which provides data and other tools to multiple customers, instead of one of the commoditized online brokers. Still need to research them more, though.
Anyway, here’s who is going live here in AZ on 9/9 or soon after, with DFS starting tomorrow.
All have welcome offers of some kind, of course. I’m sure I’ll go through all of them at one point or another like many others. Again, I think you can make short-term money on DKNG or PENN but I’m not sure about 3 or 5 years from now. Just look at who’s launching just in this state.
-BetMGM
-Draftkings
-Fanduel
-Caesers
-Wynnbet
-Unibet
-Pointsbet
-Betrivers AZ
-Twinspires
-FoxBet
-Bet365
-Golden Nugget (DKNG bought them though, right?)
-Bally Bet
-theScore Bet
-Barstool
-Betfred Arizona
That’s insane. Also, hooray!
identikit
Footballguy
I'd think a lot of these won't be around in 3-5 years.
Should be a lot of acquisitions....
Like the GENI angle.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Definitely. But there’s still going to be a bunch. I would think if the legacy casinos haven’t merged yet, they might not just over online sports betting so that leaves Wynn, MGM, Caesers, and Bally’s. Bet365 and others have global presences long before their American forays. Hard to guess who eats who.
SAVA getting killed again, assuming due to this nugget:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cassavas-stock-tumbles-again-after-quanterix-said-it-did-not-prepare-data-charts-presented-by-cassava-that-are-under-dispute-2021-08-27?siteid=yhoof2
Sounds like they got caught in a lie trying to blame a data service for their last numbers and the data company said nope, we didn’t prepare the last set. Down over 50% from Tuesday.
I’ve got a 3/4 share of DKNG and it’s up 50% so I’ll let it ride but I wonder if online betting might be like Marijuana was. When that was pre-legalization the market opportunity espoused by analysts was gigantic as if every memaw and grandpa were going to start smoking a joint on the way to church. Those stocks tanked after the huge run ups when reality set in a bit. There’s likely still some smaller winners there but I wonder if online betting is something where the market size is being estimated as if every American and their kids are going to start a gambling habit and reality won’t come close. Not planning on selling any of it yet.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I have reasonably sized long term positions in DKNG and MGM, and last week opened up a larger swing trade on DKNG and PENN. I am completely out of the swing trade now (was targeting DKNG $60 and PENN $80, thought it would take a lot longer), but I'm still holding onto the long term positions for DKNG/MGM.
McBokonon
Footballguy
That's what I think. Or, it may be a lot of people but they're betting small amounts here and there recreationally. It adds up, but they're a lot of players with deep pockets - gonna be tough to really stand out without spending a ton of money on customer acquisition. Will it be worth it to spend money to get meemaw to sign up for Barstool so she can bet $10 bucks every now and then? I also think there will be rotation into whatever sign-up bonuses there are and, again, I think the real money will bet on whatever site has the best odds for their particular event.
