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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
$PTON is a good example of one way to evaluate your positions. Generally speaking, I don’t care if a company I believe in beats analyst estimates. I’m happy when it happens and talk about it, but really I’m concerned with whether or not the company beats their own estimates.
If Company A said they’ll make 5 racks next quarter, and then Baird says “We expect 7 racks!” and then Company A eventually reports 5 or 6 racks - Great! They’re on track for what they said, and maybe even more! But it’s not 7 and the analysts said 7 mew mew mew blah blah.
The company told us what would happen, it happened. If I like their story and that keeps happening, I’m staying.
$PTON missed their own numbers. If this was just a one-off, sure, it happens. I really don’t think these guys know what they’re doing.
If Company A said they’ll make 5 racks next quarter, and then Baird says “We expect 7 racks!” and then Company A eventually reports 5 or 6 racks - Great! They’re on track for what they said, and maybe even more! But it’s not 7 and the analysts said 7 mew mew mew blah blah.
The company told us what would happen, it happened. If I like their story and that keeps happening, I’m staying.
$PTON missed their own numbers. If this was just a one-off, sure, it happens. I really don’t think these guys know what they’re doing.
I did not. I think it jumped the next day after we talked but before i could buy and it just drifted away. Penny wise, pound foolish. Missed opportunity.
Usually I like to get a starter position so I can keep an eye on it and add on pullbacks. I'm very leary of taking big opening positions because i don't want to be that buying FLGT at $150.
identikit
Footballguy
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No worries, I remember distinctly chatting about it because I felt like it was a solid opportunity. I think it got back to the $70s in May, should open tomorrow around $180.
Congrats! Nice score!
One of two things happened on my end...
1. I got cheap and now suffer the price for it.
2. I bought another share of Amazon that day and now suffer the price for it.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I helped you guys out and just lighten my load. It was in the green and i wanted to lock that in. If the narrative gets spun such as you are digesting it, this could continue to bleed off. Read that as I agree with you.
Looked like a pretty big miss on revenue, but I think their past two quarters were big jumps. In fact, if they have another disappointing Q4 like this quarter, it's still around 100% revenue increase from 2020 to 2021. I just don't get the Bitcoin part of the business and how much that drives revenue/profit. Will that increase or could it go away? it's about a P/S of 6-7, so not really an expensive stock. I'll see what it does, but might be something I move elsewhere.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Thanks. Your post seems about right. I think they get “it” as far as where the puck is going but I’m starting to wonder if they’re Gretzky without the rigor. Jack is a genius but he’s not exactly laser-focused. Which is great for a visionary but eventually someone needs to run the business.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I would see that STMH had dipped under .20, but never while I was around. So I placed a limit order and went for a walk, whereupon it promptly plunged to .17, slapping me with an extra $150 loss.
@urbanhack It's not you, it's me. Literally.
@urbanhack It's not you, it's me. Literally.
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I would see that STMH had dipped under .20, but never while I was around. So I placed a limit order and went for a walk, whereupon it promptly plunged to .17, slapping me with an extra $150 loss.
@urbanhack It's not you, it's me. Literally.
I'm down 76% on this. Of course I don't even own $150 of this...at least anymore.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I bought more at .17I would see that STMH had dipped under .20, but never while I was around. So I placed a limit order and went for a walk, whereupon it promptly plunged to .17, slapping me with an extra $150 loss.
@urbanhack It's not you, it's me. Literally.
lol
You made me look that up and the. I remembered something else. Hot damn, PTON has a friend in EBS. I actually bought that before Todem but got rid of it when the bad news came out months and months ago. Earnings tonight, down 16% to 44. UBER had earnings too and has been an awful investment. It’s literally at the same price it was 2 years and 6 months ago. Just a huge opportunity cost as almost everything is way up since then.
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I should have dumped EBS. Not sure what I should do...as Jamis would say, eat the "L" or just wait. I own 12 stocks down over 50%. Huge hole for me is not setting stops.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Just hold it if you aren't buying. Its not like the product isn't selling at all and sales have been improving. They are definitely spending a lot of money and that is a problem but there are catalysts coming in the future.
We will make money on this one, I'm not putting a timetable on it because I'm pretty terrible at that but they have a good product
The catalysts that will eventually help:
Gets covered under the ACA
Development and release of similar product that protects against chlamydia and gonorrhea
Expansion internationally
Only problem is that when Stz/Cgc make a 2x offer I'm still down 30%. Got to double down to make any money if you believe in it.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
NVDA 
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Forced labor camps never really close.
The General
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
FNKO finished AH up 13%. Interesting open tomorrow...might trim some if we get to $22.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
OK, I'm officially concerned DKNG has no understanding of profit. Not just how to make it, but what it even is.
DraftKings Meets Guidance with Third Quarter Revenue Growth of 60%; Exceeds 2.1 Million MUPs in September; Increases Midpoint of 2021 Revenue Guidance to $1.26 Billion; Introduces 2022 Revenue Guidance of $1.7 Billion to $1.9 Billion
DraftKings Q3 revenue $212.8 mln vs. $132.8 mln a year ago; FactSet consensus $236.9 mln
DraftKings Q3 FactSet per-shares loss consensus 98 cents
DraftKings Q3 per-share loss $1.35 vs. loss $1.11 a year ago
DraftKings Meets Guidance with Third Quarter Revenue Growth of 60%; Exceeds 2.1 Million MUPs in September; Increases Midpoint of 2021 Revenue Guidance to $1.26 Billion; Introduces 2022 Revenue Guidance of $1.7 Billion to $1.9 Billion
Poor, Cathie. Loaded up on DKNG in ARKW 252k, and ARKF 150k yesterday too.
DraftKings Meets Guidance with Third Quarter Revenue Growth of 60%; Exceeds 2.1 Million MUPs in September; Increases Midpoint of 2021 Revenue Guidance to $1.26 Billion; Introduces 2022 Revenue Guidance of $1.7 Billion to $1.9 Billion
DraftKings Q3 revenue $212.8 mln vs. $132.8 mln a year ago; FactSet consensus $236.9 mln
DraftKings Q3 FactSet per-shares loss consensus 98 cents
DraftKings Q3 per-share loss $1.35 vs. loss $1.11 a year ago
DraftKings Meets Guidance with Third Quarter Revenue Growth of 60%; Exceeds 2.1 Million MUPs in September; Increases Midpoint of 2021 Revenue Guidance to $1.26 Billion; Introduces 2022 Revenue Guidance of $1.7 Billion to $1.9 Billion
Poor, Cathie. Loaded up on DKNG in ARKW 252k, and ARKF 150k yesterday too.
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In hindsight EBS was pretty obvious. If the culture is cutting corners on products and safety, it's probably not a good place to invest.
For me, PINS is a lesson in not getting caught up in the hype. The solely reason i bought it was because all the PINS!!! talk in here. Wasn't fear of missing out, it was missing out. i wanted to be part of the club. Now I own a chunk of a company with declining membership.
Yeah PFE!
Pfizer (PFE) – The drug maker’s shares surged 9.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.
Pfizer (PFE) – The drug maker’s shares surged 9.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.
Damn, in reading this:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/draftkings-dkng-stock-sports-betting-earnings-51636105392?siteid=yhoof2
I thought it was funny that PENN mentioned Hurricane Ida as an issue. I assume they mean physical locations but there wasn’t a single game that I’m aware of that didn’t happen so not sure how that would affect betting, which many do right from their phone now.
Amazing that DKNG is down just a little over 2%. That’s a big swing and a double miss, with guidance too.
It's down about 10%. I'm cutting my losses here. Good luck with those that remain, I hope you crush it.
Another lesson in investing...The guys running this operation are a bunch of nerds that were probably posting on a FF message more than me a fews years back.
It's been how many years now??? Time to show some profits. Seems like these guys are more concerned with photo ops and their next luxury box event.
Something that has been bothering me at Fanduel (and I assume it's the same DK) is the 19% vig they are taking on DFS tournies. How can you not be profitable raping your customer base like that? I assume the gambling sector they are pivoting to will have much smaller margins.
And the morning of sucking it up and eating "L's" continues. Just dumped 2/3s of my HGEN. I have to assume this PFE news kills any hope their drug sees daylight. Who needs a drug that marginally reduces the risk of death after you are hospitalized when there's a drug that's 90% effective at keep keeping you out of the hospital in the first place.
I keep saying 'surely this thing can't go down any more at this point, right?'. And then, boom, down another 5-10%.I would see that STMH had dipped under .20, but never while I was around. So I placed a limit order and went for a walk, whereupon it promptly plunged to .17, slapping me with an extra $150 loss.
@urbanhack It's not you, it's me. Literally.
I'm stubbornly holding until bankruptcy at this point, but I'm glad that I have resisted any urges to buy more at these great prices.
I just sold it down 4%. I’m tired of it as well. Their marketing costs are skyrocketing and their revenue is not increasing as much as they had projected. I’m OK not being in the online betting business until there’s some consolidation/clear winners. I mean DKNG has a big NFL thing but last night on Fox for the game, all I saw was links to the Fox betting app.
At least I still made $435, but would have been smart to cut it off when it was way up but I try to avoid tax consequences in my brokerage account. Now, it’s not a big deal,
!
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Yeah, I’ve been saying that as TAM gets smaller with vaccines, but this would be a dagger for TAM. Merck, who isn’t a one trick pony, is down 9% due to the Pfizer news. That’s got to have a pretty big affect on HGEN. Probably less on CYDY since they’ve all but scrapped COVID.
Well this advice was extremely good and also only good for 2 days. If I understand correctly, I assume your 48s were called away and you pocketed 34%.
I didn’t have much so much easier to jump out. I only got in due to this thread and it made me a nice chunk of change that I pissed away most! It’s still better to sell with a gain than a loss. I at least bought in the 30s.Looks like I'm alone. Couldn't resist and added DKNG in my brokerage account.
Holding in my Roth, but I'm still way up there since that position was started when it was mid 20's.
beef
Footballguy
I don't get the need for HGEN and got out while ago. There's been shots available that do this same thing.
