Stock Thread (45 Viewers)

[urbanhack]

started small position in UPST at 237.

 

[stbugs]

My thinking is that COIN will evolve massively in the future and it won't just be all about crypto transaction fees. Kinda like AMZN valuation when they were just an online bookseller seemed crazy, but was really a bet on the internet being a massive opportunity. Brian Armstrong is a sharp guy and they have a solid talent pool working for them. Next up is their NFT platform to challenge Opensea. Beyond that, the possibilities are endless IMO if a person believes crypto is real and here to stay. 

I guess I don’t see that. Amazon selling books to full suite of e-commerce and then using their home built software to pivot to AWS all kind of made sense. Heck, Prime Music and Video after having AWS infrastructure also made sense. That’s one company and it doesn’t mean every company can do that. COIN already has a lot of big competitors which makes pivoting harder and what they do isn’t special. Amazon really didn’t have any at the start. I can see the NFT selling but can’t the other exchanges and PayPal/Square also do that easily? 

It’s definitely possible, just don’t like to see big revenue whiffs in your second earnings call. That’s the time you’re blowing away numbers. Gives me pause to think hey they can execute better than these other exchanges when they try to expand the business lines.

 

[Desert_Power]

Oof, just noticed MARA is getting hammered today

 

[stbugs]

Hey now, do the smart thing and buy Todem stuff.  I'm much more in the LHUCKS category.

But I do like MTTR.

I messed up not buying it a long time ago. Hard to keep track track of all the stocks and like you said it moves so much. 

 

[Sand]

I messed up not buying it a long time ago. Hard to keep track track of all the stocks and like you said it moves so much. 

Just remember I also said this is a 10 year hold. I just see it as a technology that has tremendous opportunity down the road and this is one of my moonshots.  The hype over the metaverse right now certainly doesn't hurt, either.

 

[stbugs]

Just remember I also said this is a 10 year hold. I just see it as a technology that has tremendous opportunity down the road and this is one of my moonshots.  The hype over the metaverse right now certainly doesn't hurt, either.

No worries, I have tons of moonshots. I like their stuff and should have bought at $13 or $14. It goes up and down so much, I’ll wait it out a bit. I do feel like there’s a general dip coming and that tends to punish moonshots a bit more than the rest.

 

[McBokonon]

Oat milk will exist but it's gonna need to be as a product of a conglomerate, not on its own. Same realization will be had when people realize BYND is never gonna make money by itself, either. Alternative proteins will exist, but it needs to be Impossible Burgers, brought to you by Clorox.

$OTLY down 22% on its “earnings” as it enters single digits on its way to being bought out by private equity in about 2 years for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Capella]

Lol Rivian. This is so dumb 

 

[General Malaise]

$OTLY down 22% on its “earnings” as it enters single digits on its way to being bought out by private equity in about 2 years for pennies on the dollar.

Glad I dumped this one.  Stupid buy in the first place.

Anybody have any conviction left in DKNG?   Should have bailed weeks ago.  This thing is horrible.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lol Rivian. This is so dumb 

I sold Friday at a 22% profit - that was dumb.

 

[McBokonon]

Glad I dumped this one.  Stupid buy in the first place.

Anybody have any conviction left in DKNG?   Should have bailed weeks ago.  This thing is horrible.

Here are a few of my posts about this going back to June.

They all have connections like that, and many entities have partnerships with multiple betting partners. Just to pick one at random, Fanduel has agreements or connections with the Associated Press (they’re using only Fanduel odds across all publications), the Ringer, Charles Barkley, the NHL, Turner Sports, Broncos, Suns, the NFL (along with DK and Caesers), Fox, etc. Similar stories for the other ones. In Arizona, all major sports teams, the TPG golf course, etc. each have their own betting partner. We’ll have something like 10 different sportsbooks to choose from.

Fanduel is building an in-person sportsbook on the first floor of the Suns’ arena in downtown Phoenix (just read this the other day which is why Fanduel is top of mind.)

This is right in the middle of Downtown Phoenix. This is a city with a metropolitan population of 5 or 6 million something like that. Not a bad advertisement.

I’m not predicting failure here. This is a growing industry, but I think the rapid growth ceiling will be here sooner than people think. And there may be some consolidation(like with DK/Nugget), but it won’t be Coke and Pepsi. Barriers to entry aren’t even in the same dimension. No worries about manufacturing, distribution, any of that. Most existing books outside of DK also have brick and mortar casinos and other revenue streams of which online sports betting is but a piece. DK will need to find more ways than DFS and betting to continue accelerated growth for years and years. Can they do something successful that’s not easily replicated by MGM, Caesar’s, Penn/Bartsool, Fanduel, William Hill, Bally’s, Wynn, etc.?

I think DKNG could make people money here in the short term for sure, but for my time horizon of holding stuff for 5-10 years, I just think there’s better options.

I sold because I fear that while it might be the leader in a growing industry, gambling apps will be a commodity, by and large. Could be wrong, of course. That said there might be a short term trade here.

New York just approved the following:

FanDuel
Bally Bet
BetMGM
DraftKings
Rush Street Interactive (BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse parent)
Caesars
WynnBet
Resorts World
PointsBet

“Commodity.”

 

[beef]

Anybody have any conviction left in DKNG?   Should have bailed weeks ago.  This thing is horrible.

It's like a floater that won't flush.  F I hate this stock now.  Every time I see an advertisement that was probably expensive (like the digitally imposed logo on the pitchers mound during the WS) I cringe.  

Still green in my Roth and I'll hold there and continue the long.  Brokerage account is red and I really do want to dump it, but won't yet.  

 

[McBokonon]

Wynn terminated their SPAC to take Wynn Interactive public as a standalone company.

“… in light of elevated marketing and promotional spend in the sports betting industry, we are pivoting our user acquisition efforts to a more targeted ROI-focused strategy. “In so doing, we expect the capital intensity of the business to decline meaningfully beginning in the first quarter of 2022.”

“While sports betting remains an exciting high-growth market and will potentially be a $30 billion to $40 billion total addressable market over time, the marketplace is proving to be very competitive with multiple operators deploying meaningful marketing dollars, driving high cost per acquisition, and significant customer bonus offers,” he said. “In light of this dynamic, we are intentionally pivoting our approach to scaling. taking a more measured and long-term focus to grow healthy and sustainable business.”

So they’re exiting the land grab because it’s not worth it.

I mentioned in the gambling thread a while back that Wynn didn’t have the same level of promos and bonuses that others like Draftkings and Fanduel do.

And this @General Malaise is Wynn gaming basically saying there's just not enough upside to aggressively go after online sports betting. They're not abandoning it, but they know the cost to get a customer isn't worth what they'll get back.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Glad I dumped this one.  Stupid buy in the first place.

Anybody have any conviction left in DKNG?   Should have bailed weeks ago.  This thing is horrible.

I'm in the same boat. Will be tax harvested soon. 

 

[identikit]

I sold Friday at a 22% profit - that was dumb.

Sold half on Friday.  That was half dumb

 

[beef]

UWMC is another I'm tried of looking at.  Think I may get a Clorox impossible burger with the dividend payout on 12/9 and then tax whack it.

 

[SFBayDuck]

UWMC is another I'm tried of looking at.  Think I may get a Clorox impossible burger with the dividend payout on 12/9 and then tax whack it.

Yeah I've been disappointed in this one as well. Heard such good things about the company from people in the industry, but the stock has been a turd.  It's literally the only red in the total gain/loss column in the account I have it in.

 

[McBokonon]

Good quarter from $AXON. Just glancing over their press release and you really have to love the grand goals they have and their stated mission. I don't see it here but they've said before they want to "make the bullet obsolete." In this release, they are discussing their move into products for the justice system, specifically ways to make the discovery process better and faster using their evidence software tools:

"Specifically, we are developing software to help prosecutors and defense attorneys streamline the discovery process. Not only is our goal to save attorneys time, but also to shorten the time people are jailed awaiting trial."

Hard not to root for a company like this, and it helps that they're really good and have/will make me piles of money.

 

[stbugs]

Good quarter from $AXON. Just glancing over their press release and you really have to love the grand goals they have and their stated mission. I don't see it here but they've said before they want to "make the bullet obsolete." In this release, they are discussing their move into products for the justice system, specifically ways to make the discovery process better and faster using their evidence software tools:

"Specifically, we are developing software to help prosecutors and defense attorneys streamline the discovery process. Not only is our goal to save attorneys time, but also to shorten the time people are jailed awaiting trial."

Hard not to root for a company like this, and it helps that they're really good and have/will make me piles of money.

Nice. Got about 3/4 of a share in it. Thought about adding a little when it dipped earlier this year but I was good with what I had. Nice AHs. I’ll take it.

 

[ChiefD]

Good quarter from $AXON.

DOES THIS STOCK KNOW HOW TO ROCK?

 

[Orange&Blue]

If your’re100% equity now you’re 70% equity 30% cash.

Pretend I'm lhucks...what does this mean?

 

[Todem]

Pretend I'm llucks...what does this mean?

70% of your money fully invested in whatever your portfolio is comprised of and 30% is in cash.

If you have $500,000 valued portfolio:

$350,000 is invested

$150,000 is in cash

 

[dkp993]

Pretend I'm llucks...what does this mean?

70% of your money fully invested in whatever your portfolio is comprised of and 30% is in cash.

If you have $500,000 valued portfolio:

$350,000 is invested

$150,000 is in cash

So for noob’s like some of are.  When you say “cash” do you mean it’s just sitting on the sidelines in your Fidelity account (or whatever you use) earning no interest or next to nothing in a savings account? Or is there another place you are putting that cash that’s safe but it’s still earning something?  Thanks 

 

[KGB]

So for noob’s like some of are.  When you say “cash” do you mean it’s just sitting on the sidelines in your Fidelity account (or whatever you use) earning no interest or next to nothing in a savings account? Or is there another place you are putting that cash that’s safe but it’s still earning something?  Thanks 

Could be either, but most its probably just sitting in fidelity and not currently in a stock.

 

[kevzilla]

QS carried the water for my portfolio today. Can't believe I just typed that 

 

[identikit]

I sold MTTRW @ a 20% profit this AM.

 

[Sand]

I sold MTTRW @ a 20% profit this AM.

Chances of it printing -30% tomorrow are pretty good.

 

[Todem]

So for noob’s like some of are.  When you say “cash” do you mean it’s just sitting on the sidelines in your Fidelity account (or whatever you use) earning no interest or next to nothing in a savings account? Or is there another place you are putting that cash that’s safe but it’s still earning something?  Thanks 

Money market earning next to nothing.

 

[Todem]

QS carried the water for my portfolio today. Can't believe I just typed that 

That stock broke through a major resistance level.

 

[KGB]

https://adonfinance.com/amc-announces-plans-to-unveil-its-own-cryptocurrency/

Called it lol

 

[identikit]

https://adonfinance.com/amc-announces-plans-to-unveil-its-own-cryptocurrency/

Called it lol

Here comes The Junior Mint!!!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Do we still like ZIM?  @Bob Sacamano

Earnings coming out Wed...stock has been down a bit. 

Honestly, I haven't had time to spend on much of anything recently. Not up to date enough to know what to expect, but anecdotal info makes it sure seem like the shipping glut isn't going anywhere anytime soon. I've pocketed a lot of cash off them and I'm freerolling, so I'm holding a while longer and will see how the winds blow. 

 

[McBokonon]

$SE reported:

-Total GAAP revenue was US$2.7 billion, up 121.8% year-on-year.

-Total gross profit was US$1.0 billion, up 147.5% year-on-year.

-Total adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(165.5) million compared to US$120.4 million for the third quarter of 2020. (analysts expected $.68 EPS loss, actual was $.69)

Raised Guidance:  We expect GAAP revenue for e-commerce to be between US$5.0 billion and US$5.2 billion, representing 135.3% growth from 2020 at the midpoint of the revised guidance, compared to the previous guidance of between US$4.7 billion to US$4.9 billion.

Press Release - blowout numbers everywhere.

If I didn’t recently learn that quarterly reports are meaningless smoke screens believed only by bumpkins, I’d be pleased.

 

[stbugs]

$SE reported:

-Total GAAP revenue was US$2.7 billion, up 121.8% year-on-year.

-Total gross profit was US$1.0 billion, up 147.5% year-on-year.

-Total adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(165.5) million compared to US$120.4 million for the third quarter of 2020. (analysts expected $.68 EPS loss, actual was $.69)

Raised Guidance:  We expect GAAP revenue for e-commerce to be between US$5.0 billion and US$5.2 billion, representing 135.3% growth from 2020 at the midpoint of the revised guidance, compared to the previous guidance of between US$4.7 billion to US$4.9 billion.

Press Release - blowout numbers everywhere.

If I didn’t recently learn that quarterly reports are meaningless smoke screens believed only by bumpkins, I’d be pleased.

Nice. Between, SE, AXON and RSKD, 3 solid reports.

 

[McBokonon]

Nice. Between, SE, AXON and RSKD, 3 solid reports.

AXON was due for a pop. 

 

[McBokonon]

AXON was due for a pop. 

Now I realize I say this even though it’s up almost 40% over the last year. 2020 warped my brain.

 

[BassNBrew]

Royalty Pharma (RPRX) – Royalty Pharma rallied 7.8% in premarket trading, following news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) took a new $475 million stake in the drug royalty purchaser.

I've been sitting on this turd for a year.  Almost culled it to raise cash last week.  Probably should look at selling today.

 

[McBokonon]

$PTON

During their earnings call less than two weeks ago: "....we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook."

Today: Proposed $1 billion offering.

 

[BassNBrew]

Peloton files to sell $1 billion in stock offering, shares drop

PUBLISHED TUE, NOV 16 20217:24 AM ESTUPDATED 19 MIN AGO

Lauren Thomas@LAURENTHOMAS

SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email

KEY POINTS

Peloton said Tuesday it plans to sell an additional $1 billion of its Class A common stock.

The connected fitness equipment maker is looking for ways to come up with cash amid slowing momentum for its products.

 

[McBokonon]

$PTON

During their earnings call less than two weeks ago: "....we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook."

Today: Proposed $1 billion offering.

Peloton files to sell $1 billion in stock offering, shares drop

Fascinating

 

[BassNBrew]

$PTON

During their earnings call less than two weeks ago: "....we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook."

Today: Proposed $1 billion offering.

So glad I sold this as soon as I saw that Meaningless earnings annoucement back in August at $109 instead of HODLING

 

[BassNBrew]

Fascinating

Great minds think alike...some are just faster.

 

[stbugs]

I've been sitting on this turd for a year.  Almost culled it to raise cash last week.  Probably should look at selling today.

I remember it being mentioned but I never bought that. It really hasn’t moved since I started watching it.

 

[beef]

Here comes The Junior Mint!!!

What's with the candy?

 

[beef]

Chances of it printing -30% tomorrow are pretty good.

MTTRW is -20% at 12.44 premarket and MTTR is -4% at 26.19.   That's over a $2 discount on the W's when you add in the exercise of $11.50.  Probably a fluke sell at 12.44? 

 

[Capella]

Didn’t realize peloton was down to 47 bucks. That’s bleak. 

 

[beef]

Didn’t realize peloton was down to 47 bucks. That’s bleak. 

Still an expensive clothes rack.  

 

[BassNBrew]

Market Caps

Tsla - 1 trillion

Tm - 300 billion

Rivn - 140 billion   

GM - 90 billion

F - 80 billion

Rivian now valued where Telsa was after Tesla had sold 1 million cars.  Does anyone want to wager that Rivian sells more trucks than Ford in the next decade?

 

[BassNBrew]

Didn’t realize peloton was down to 47 bucks. That’s bleak. 

Still an expensive clothes rack.  

It may have more staying power than most, but the fitness industry always has been about trends.  Most clubs have gone bankrupt several times in my lifetime.  All of the hot products and concepts eventually get knocked off and then fade away.  You've got to make your money on the front end.  I started seeing a huge ad spend from Nordictrac 18 months ago on their bikes and treadmills to compete.  The the Mirror and other interactive products came out.  If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's not a tech company.  I think you'll see that with Rivian.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Todem Any concern that your predicted 20% drop will come at the expense of insanely valued companies and rest of the market will end up higher than where it is today when you factor in dividends?  Is LYB going to drop to a PE of 4?