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Be careful in crypto. Pay attention to Kazakhstan. 

Might be a buying opp real soon if you're a believer.  I don't follow Bitcoin closely, but a 12-15% reduction or disruption to hash rate sounds ominous. 

 
General Malaise said:
Be careful in crypto. Pay attention to Kazakhstan. 

Might be a buying opp real soon if you're a believer.  I don't follow Bitcoin closely, but a 12-15% reduction or disruption to hash rate sounds ominous. 
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Considering an ethereum purchase here.  Still sifting through info.   Fed and Kazakhstan appear to be reasons provided for crash.

 
BassNBrew said:
19% rake on the classic games...they should be rolling in the dough.  I wouldn't mind growth spending, but I suspect it's lavish luxury box spends for the top employees in the name of advertising.  
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This post is a general discussion on DKNG, not you, except for the bolded.  Thanks.

Do you really "suspect" money is going to top employees for boxes (and hookers and whatnot, lol), then that would legit concern me.  That gives me serious pause, a culture like that.  They are a young company and I wouldn't be surprised I guess, but where'd you get that?  Is it just a hunch?

The rake (19%) on "classic games" does not concern me in the least, we're not trying to keep doors open here.  They are branding like crazy and I don't mind it, I'm long term.  And when you've got the 5th biggest economy in the world on deck (Cali), I'll roll those dice.  They, along with other states, could use some extra scratch about now.  Texas.  Florida.  Etc.  We're talking economies bigger than countries.  I can wait for it to be about EPS -- the more important part is who ends up Budweiser and Coors in this new space.

Unless this is a trading conversation, in which case those are two different topics, the branding is the biggest battle, imo, not EPS, not now.  The winners will have plenty of that.  And yes, you do need gorilla marketing, or whatever it's called nowadays, to get in consumer's heads.  When someone pulls out their phone -- for a bet on 4th and goal -- that advertising does matter, like it or not. 

Seeing a baseball game with the DRAFTKINGS logo for 3 hours up on the Green Monster or behind the plate, it can bug.  The first Wrigley BUDWEISER was sad.  But that dinosaur Flo from Progressive is still kicking is she not?  Why?  Because that #### works, like it or not, and that's why they keep blasting their name all over the place.  Doesn't matter if it's Flo or Giselle, they just want to reach mindless drunks who are ready to throw money at a Tom Brady's TD or Lebron James' next 3-pointer.  The time is here, it just may take awhile to figure out who wins.  But in either case, the time to eke out profits is not now.

What do you want DK to do, play it safe all of a sudden and start nickel and diming for short term profits?  I'd rather buy a condo in Del Boca Vista and some bond fund and call it quits.

Look, Budweiser always wins.  So does Coors.  And so do Coke and Pepsi.  If DKNG end up either in the mobile sports gaming world, good night.  At 24 bucks, I can wait for it.

 
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And just like that it's as if yesterday didn't happen.  Not so nice seeing FLGT down again, but good to know Covid is still over.  :thumbup:

 
beef said:
And just like that it's as if yesterday didn't happen.  Not so nice seeing FLGT down again, but good to know Covid is still over.  :thumbup:
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It's plenty nice winning people leave winning lotto tickets on your doorstep.

 
beef said:
And just like that it's as if yesterday didn't happen.  Not so nice seeing FLGT down again, but good to know Covid is still over.  :thumbup:
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My son got tested on Tuesday because he went back to Clemson for New Year’s Eve to celebrate with friends, one of whom tested positive because she was going abroad for this semester (they are both boosted and she was asymptomatic).

Anyway, long story short, my son had to get tested at the same place before his trip to Paris in early December and he said the testing place was crazy packed. I think FLGT is going to blow away their numbers for Q4 and may roll extra into Q1. Doesn’t really matter long term unless Omicrom doesn’t burn out and get us back to normal, but it should stuff the bank enough to keep adding to their core business without diluting shareholders. I’m sticking around for a while in them. If it gets back to mid to low $70s, may have to add a little more. Even when COVID goes away, I think testing for new viruses may be a thing now so their ability to capitalize on COVID shows that they could do the same in the future as well.

 
Random conversation with my daughter about Facebook.

We asked her last night about sending invites to her friends through facebook.  She gave us an ugly look and said "facebook??  Nobody uses facebook anymore".  She is 17.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Random conversation with my daughter about Facebook.

We asked her last night about sending invites to her friends through facebook.  She gave us an ugly look and said "facebook??  Nobody uses facebook anymore".  She is 17.
Click to expand...
Kids may love their grandma, but don't want to hang out with her all day every day.

My 12 year-old and teenage niece & nephew won't get near FB.   

 
Harry Frogfish said:
This post is a general discussion on DKNG, not you, except for the bolded.  Thanks.

Do you really "suspect" money is going to top employees for boxes (and hookers and whatnot, lol), then that would legit concern me.  That gives me serious pause, a culture like that.  They are a young company and I wouldn't be surprised I guess, but where'd you get that?  Is it just a hunch?

The rake (19%) on "classic games" does not concern me in the least, we're not trying to keep doors open here.  They are branding like crazy and I don't mind it, I'm long term.  And when you've got the 5th biggest economy in the world on deck (Cali), I'll roll those dice.  They, along with other states, could use some extra scratch about now.  Texas.  Florida.  Etc.  We're talking economies bigger than countries.  I can wait for it to be about EPS -- the more important part is who ends up Budweiser and Coors in this new space.

Unless this is a trading conversation, in which case those are two different topics, the branding is the biggest battle, imo, not EPS, not now.  The winners will have plenty of that.  And yes, you do need gorilla marketing, or whatever it's called nowadays, to get in consumer's heads.  When someone pulls out their phone -- for a bet on 4th and goal -- that advertising does matter, like it or not. 

Seeing a baseball game with the DRAFTKINGS logo for 3 hours up on the Green Monster or behind the plate, it can bug.  The first Wrigley BUDWEISER was sad.  But that dinosaur Flo from Progressive is still kicking is she not?  Why?  Because that #### works, like it or not, and that's why they keep blasting their name all over the place.  Doesn't matter if it's Flo or Giselle, they just want to reach mindless drunks who are ready to throw money at a Tom Brady's TD or Lebron James' next 3-pointer.  The time is here, it just may take awhile to figure out who wins.  But in either case, the time to eke out profits is not now.

What do you want DK to do, play it safe all of a sudden and start nickel and diming for short term profits?  I'd rather buy a condo in Del Boca Vista and some bond fund and call it quits.

Look, Budweiser always wins.  So does Coors.  And so do Coke and Pepsi.  If DKNG end up either in the mobile sports gaming world, good night.  At 24 bucks, I can wait for it.
Click to expand...


Bud and Coors or Coke and Pepsi would buy DKNG.  That's what they do.  Think of all the craft breweries Bud has gobbled up the last 10 years.  

MGM and Caesars are responding to DKNGs massive marketing.  If you watch NFL games, they are making their presence known, bigly. And that's a problem for DKNG, the least of which being that the formers have a LOTTA dough.  

Forget the negative EPS for a second - the one thing an AMZN didn't have when it was bleeding cash to grow?  Viable competitors.  They didn't have giant bullseyes on their backs.  They were unique.  

 
BassNBrew said:
It's plenty nice winning people leave winning lotto tickets on your doorstep.
Click to expand...
This is just getting silly. I can’t tell what I want to buy. I definitely think the market has some overvalued parts but man, for stuff that’s already gotten hit, they keep getting hit more. Oh well, my IRA doesn’t get touched for years and years and I’ve got almost 15% cash in it so no reason not to add some more and wait.

 
stbugs said:
This is just getting silly. I can’t tell what I want to buy. I definitely think the market has some overvalued parts but man, for stuff that’s already gotten hit, they keep getting hit more. Oh well, my IRA doesn’t get touched for years and years and I’ve got almost 15% cash in it so no reason not to add some more and wait.
Click to expand...
Same.  I'm keeping my action small.  Nibbles on growth, trims on value.  No major moves except for taking some losses last week.  Still trying to keep a balance of value/growth and have cash ready to deploy.  This may end up being the game I play for most of 2022.  Rate hikes, student loans coming back, gas/diesel demand, there are some sectors I'll probably stay heavy in though.    

 
ghostguy123 said:
Random conversation with my daughter about Facebook.

We asked her last night about sending invites to her friends through facebook.  She gave us an ugly look and said "facebook??  Nobody uses facebook anymore".  She is 17.
Click to expand...


beef said:
Kids may love their grandma, but don't want to hang out with her all day every day.

My 12 year-old and teenage niece & nephew won't get near FB.   
Click to expand...
Where are they on Instagram? 

eta: I mean, sentiment-wise 

 
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beef said:
@stbugs  I'm not bailing on FLGT and will add more too.  May start nibbling on more real soon if that 77 limit hits.  
Click to expand...
No worries! I just really like the long term outlook especially when COVID has literally removed any need for secondary (dilutive) offerings that most small companies need to grow organically or via acquisitions. I mean their core business revenue/growth supports the market cap even without taking into account the cash on hand and continued COVID revenue. It may go down but who knows if it disappears.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Random conversation with my daughter about Facebook.

We asked her last night about sending invites to her friends through facebook.  She gave us an ugly look and said "facebook??  Nobody uses facebook anymore".  She is 17.
Click to expand...
It’s been this way for years. There is absolutely nobody under 40 on Facebook. But they own IG which is still hoppin for now. 

 
Dow’s turn today.......folks....this is just the start. Be patient.  Nibble tactically into the names on the list that you like or want. 

Get used to the volatility because there is going to be a lot of it this year. Just know your goals, time horizon and invest accordingly. 

 
Capella said:
It’s been this way for years. There is absolutely nobody under 40 on Facebook. But they own IG which is still hoppin for now. 
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My sense is 15-30 use Snap and TikTok 30-40 use IG 40+ use FB  

IG seems the place to look at butts though.  

 
Todem said:
Dow’s turn today.......folks....this is just the start. Be patient.  Nibble tactically into the names on the list that you like or want. 

Get used to the volatility because there is going to be a lot of it this year. Just know your goals, time horizon and invest accordingly. 
Click to expand...
😂 Up a little, down a little, down a couple percent, flat, up a little, up a percent. All in less than 2 hours.

 
Capella said:
It’s been this way for years. There is absolutely nobody under 40 on Facebook. But they own IG which is still hoppin for now. 
Click to expand...


Dude, you're the best, but this is not close to the case on the left coast.  They are still on it, the over 40's.  Boggles my mind, especially in the middle of a pandemic, as if they're being heard and/or want to be seen.  But believe me, they're still there.

And yeah, IG is lit.

Don't own one share of that stuff, btw, just sayin.

 
General Malaise said:
Bud and Coors or Coke and Pepsi would buy DKNG.  That's what they do.  Think of all the craft breweries Bud has gobbled up the last 10 years.  

MGM and Caesars are responding to DKNGs massive marketing.  If you watch NFL games, they are making their presence known, bigly. And that's a problem for DKNG, the least of which being that the formers have a LOTTA dough.  

Forget the negative EPS for a second - the one thing an AMZN didn't have when it was bleeding cash to grow?  Viable competitors.  They didn't have giant bullseyes on their backs.  They were unique.  
Click to expand...


I agree about Caesar's and MGM, I'm nervous, but time will tell.  I'm all about the marketing in these early stages, I think once they get them on their phones, getting market share and the hook, the EPS will come when it's time.  Just don't know why you're so focused on the EPS, at this stage.  But I do see your point, the big boys are in the ring now.

We'll see.

 
General Malaise said:
Bud and Coors or Coke and Pepsi would buy DKNG.  That's what they do.  Think of all the craft breweries Bud has gobbled up the last 10 years.  

MGM and Caesars are responding to DKNGs massive marketing.  If you watch NFL games, they are making their presence known, bigly. And that's a problem for DKNG, the least of which being that the formers have a LOTTA dough.  

Forget the negative EPS for a second - the one thing an AMZN didn't have when it was bleeding cash to grow?  Viable competitors.  They didn't have giant bullseyes on their backs.  They were unique.  
Click to expand...


If I had the patience to parse this out I would but I can't right now.

Bud and Coors buying DKGN is not what I was alluding to, in the least.  The point was there will only be a few in the end, who win this battle, and the comparison therein was that it doesn't matter which one we find, it's just finding ONE.

MGM and Caesars are coming in big, I get it, and you're right.

But part of your point in that is that the "formers have a LOTTA dough".

Well, guess who else has a lotta dough?  Jerry Jones, the Bob Crafts (band name?), and Disney.  Wrigley among others, I'll look later.  They are all invested in DKNG.  DKNG isn't exactly light on the muscle and won't be folding any time soon.

I'm actually enjoying it, the way this shakes out.

 
[icon] said:
Might be the worst thing on the internet since 2 girls 1 cup. 
Click to expand...
I don't know, man.  The cinematography in 2 girls 1 cup was truly brilliant.  You could argue Roger Deakins success has come from stealing aspects of it.  

 
General Malaise said:
Bud and Coors or Coke and Pepsi would buy DKNG.  That's what they do.  Think of all the craft breweries Bud has gobbled up the last 10 years.  

MGM and Caesars are responding to DKNGs massive marketing.  If you watch NFL games, they are making their presence known, bigly. And that's a problem for DKNG, the least of which being that the formers have a LOTTA dough.  

Forget the negative EPS for a second - the one thing an AMZN didn't have when it was bleeding cash to grow?  Viable competitors.  They didn't have giant bullseyes on their backs.  They were unique.  
Click to expand...
Amazon also wasn’t bleeding cash like DKNG. They were investing in new businesses, logistics enhancements, etc. Their actual cash flow is a lot bigger than their earnings because they are shoving that money back into things to make them grow. DKNG’s bleeding cash is purely about attracting customers with freebies, not hooking them with more value that would make them not want to ever leave. That type of spending plus the very viable competitors as you mentioned is a lose lose situation. Those customers can leave and get similar services from anyone else and hop for freebies.

 
stbugs said:
Amazon also wasn’t bleeding cash like DKNG. They were investing in new businesses, logistics enhancements, etc. Their actual cash flow is a lot bigger than their earnings because they are shoving that money back into things to make them grow. DKNG’s bleeding cash is purely about attracting customers with freebies, not hooking them with more value that would make them not want to ever leave. That type of spending plus the very viable competitors as you mentioned is a lose lose situation. Those customers can leave and get similar services from anyone else and hop for freebies.
Click to expand...
I posted before but Wynn already decided through their analysis that the type of customer obtained through these freebies isn't going to be profitable, so they aren't really doing them.

My guess (this is informed but still ultimately my speculation) is that DK and Fanduel might win the battle to bring a bunch of people onto their platform fast and early, but a lot of these will be casual bettors. Many of them will bet a lot during the early stages because it's new and they're getting promos and freebies, and then their engagement will fall off (especially when they realize they'll have to deposit more to keep going, and this time it will actually be their own money.) The big money, the real bettors, will A. go wherever the best line is and B. wherever they get more enticing comps. MGM, Caesar's, Wynn, and Barstool (through Penn) can attach a rewards program to their properties and offer comps, etc. DK and Fanduel can't. Plus, again, the margins just in sports betting aren't good - without other icnome streams like hotels, other gaming, dining, etc - I don't think the standalone sports apps will make enough to adequately reward shareholders.

 
McBokonon said:
I posted before but Wynn already decided through their analysis that the type of customer obtained through these freebies isn't going to be profitable, so they aren't really doing them.

My guess (this is informed but still ultimately my speculation) is that DK and Fanduel might win the battle to bring a bunch of people onto their platform fast and early, but a lot of these will be casual bettors. Many of them will bet a lot during the early stages because it's new and they're getting promos and freebies, and then their engagement will fall off (especially when they realize they'll have to deposit more to keep going, and this time it will actually be their own money.) The big money, the real bettors, will A. go wherever the best line is and B. wherever they get more enticing comps. MGM, Caesar's, Wynn, and Barstool (through Penn) can attach a rewards program to their properties and offer comps, etc. DK and Fanduel can't. Plus, again, the margins just in sports betting aren't good - without other icnome streams like hotels, other gaming, dining, etc - I don't think the standalone sports apps will make enough to adequately reward shareholders.
Click to expand...


I strongly suspect DFS business is off this year based upon forum traffic at FBG and rotogrinders and the number of contests I'm seeing.  At 19% vig the consumer isn't coming back because it's a constant bad beat.

 
stbugs said:
Amazon also wasn’t bleeding cash like DKNG. They were investing in new businesses, logistics enhancements, etc. Their actual cash flow is a lot bigger than their earnings because they are shoving that money back into things to make them grow. DKNG’s bleeding cash is purely about attracting customers with freebies, not hooking them with more value that would make them not want to ever leave. That type of spending plus the very viable competitors as you mentioned is a lose lose situation. Those customers can leave and get similar services from anyone else and hop for freebies.
Click to expand...


Amazon wasn't creating new businesses 1 year after their IPO.  They were just an e-commerce site that could easily be duplicated.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
If I had the patience to parse this out I would but I can't right now.

Bud and Coors buying DKGN is not what I was alluding to, in the least.  The point was there will only be a few in the end, who win this battle, and the comparison therein was that it doesn't matter which one we find, it's just finding ONE.

MGM and Caesars are coming in big, I get it, and you're right.

But part of your point in that is that the "formers have a LOTTA dough".

Well, guess who else has a lotta dough?  Jerry Jones, the Bob Crafts (band name?), and Disney.  Wrigley among others, I'll look later.  They are all invested in DKNG.  DKNG isn't exactly light on the muscle and won't be folding any time soon.

I'm actually enjoying it, the way this shakes out.
Click to expand...
I understood your analogy, I just was pointing out that those entities would gobble up a DKNG if it were a beer, like they have in the last 10 years taking over smaller craft brewers at nice premiums.  It's good to be the king, no double pun intended there.  

I'm still not clear on what DKGN can offer me as a user that other gambling sites cannot.  For some reason, the state of Oregon has banned residents from using DKNG and FanDuel, so even though I made a deposit into DKGN back in Sept to join some fun DFS contests with buddies, I can't play.  DKNG and the state of Oregon fought over Oregon's legalized sports gambling app and when a deal couldn't be reached, DKNG said "F You, hippies" and closed up shop to us.  Didn't prevent them from taking my deposit, which is a hell of a note.  So even though I liked playing the PGA contests on FanDuel for several years, I can't play them anymore either, which sucks.  

So again, I'm not crystal clear on what DKNG can offer me (assuming I was able to use them) that an MGM or Ceasers won't offer me on a mobile.   You mention freebies - who is in a better position to offer the freebies, the cashed up big whales or the outfit running on marketing and a hope that one day they will turn a profit? 

 
McBokonon said:
I posted before but Wynn already decided through their analysis that the type of customer obtained through these freebies isn't going to be profitable, so they aren't really doing them.

My guess (this is informed but still ultimately my speculation) is that DK and Fanduel might win the battle to bring a bunch of people onto their platform fast and early, but a lot of these will be casual bettors. Many of them will bet a lot during the early stages because it's new and they're getting promos and freebies, and then their engagement will fall off (especially when they realize they'll have to deposit more to keep going, and this time it will actually be their own money.) The big money, the real bettors, will A. go wherever the best line is and B. wherever they get more enticing comps. MGM, Caesar's, Wynn, and Barstool (through Penn) can attach a rewards program to their properties and offer comps, etc. DK and Fanduel can't. Plus, again, the margins just in sports betting aren't good - without other icnome streams like hotels, other gaming, dining, etc - I don't think the standalone sports apps will make enough to adequately reward shareholders.
Click to expand...


DK already has a rewards program.

 
All that said, I just closed out my short on DKNG.  I don't like investing on the dark side, even though it was a profitable trade.  Spent 8 years trading for a short seller who was the ******* child of Bobby Knight and Darth Vader.  Miserable man, but really rich and really generous at bonus time.  Just had to duck the hurling chairs and sustain the force choke holds.

 
stbugs said:
DKNG’s bleeding cash is purely about attracting customers with freebies, not hooking them with more value that would make them not want to ever leave. That type of spending plus the very viable competitors as you mentioned is a lose lose situation. Those customers can leave and get similar services from anyone else and hop for freebies.
Click to expand...


Comparing DKNG to AMZN is a weird comparison that's going on here but whatever.

"Not hooking them with more value that would make them not want to ever leave."

That is where we disagree I guess.  Most gamblers have no clue about value.  You're talking pros.  That's a whole different story. 

Most gamblers, they just want to be happy where they're at, gambling at their comfortable table / slot machine / sports book chair / APP (without having to check-in again).

 
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