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Stock Thread (38 Viewers)

You guys...I caught @Todem wading in the PSF.  Please PM him telling him he's not allowed to go there and to keep his priorities straight.

 
Harry Frogfish said:
There was a time when I dug into stocks, where #### would hit the fan like this, and I found myself digging for dollars, but in the end, did better with the companies that held strong.  Like AAPL's doing. And OKE, ####er didn't budge.

Those times were long ago and before analytics became so easy to dig up the goods.  So my question is does that hold true?  Strength during weakness bares out in the end? 

People are bargain hunting and finding some nice deals like Netflix, but off a double top, down $150/20%, or HUBS (mentioned on here) down $250/30%.  As hard as it may be, are the better buys right now the ones that haven't been whacked?

Especially in an environment like this.  It's human nature to go bargain shopping.  But doesn't that also show it was overpriced to begin with, not to mention other cracks?

Tell me I'm wrong in looking for the strength (relatively speaking) during a sell-off?  Thanks.
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You “may” be wrong. Highly volatile stocks like tech/growth stocks tend to get whacked all the time. Go look at the big guys like the FAANG stocks and there are tons of big drops and tons of big jumps.

I’m the one who mentioned HUBS and if I didn’t have a good chunk of it, I’d buy more. Great growth and reports with growth actually accelerating in 2021. I love seeing that. That’s a lot different than buying say HGEN or CYDY just because they dropped so much. HUBS is down because all growth is, not because there’s a problem with the business.

Now, it doesn’t mean that stocks that don’t dip as much aren’t good either just that they may not be as prone to big drops and also big jumps.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
There's the GME NFT announcement.  Let's see if my bags can get back to even.
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It’s just a report on the WSJ based on people who know the plan. That’s not GameStop’s actual announcement. Seems like the same info that’s already been thrown around before in terms of the web site and job listings. Did you see anything new?

 
Alright let’s hear them.  What are your conviction stocks that are beaten down, possibly unfairly?  The babies that got thrown out with the bath water?  In this environment if it’s growth you’re probably looking for companies with lots of cash on hand and/or strong growth and cash flow positive?

I’ll start with APPS - mobile software company. Strong year over year and quarter over quarter growth, recent partnership with google.  Cash flow positive. 

Next is longer term - NNDM.  3d printing technology.  They diluted and raised over a billion in cash last 2 years and have more cash than book value.  They’ve purchased several companies over the last few months and have sold several or their machines to govt agencies.  Because of that I would expect a large jump in revenue over the next few quarters.  This is a long term hold for me.

Whatcha got?

 
stbugs said:
It’s just a report on the WSJ based on people who know the plan. That’s not GameStop’s actual announcement. Seems like the same info that’s already been thrown around before in terms of the web site and job listings. Did you see anything new?
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I saw nothing new. Nothing imminent - just created a department to develop one but everyone knew that already.

Solid orchestrated pump here and it brought other meme stocks with it. Be curious to see when the stock started surging vs when the article was published. 

 
McBokonon said:
I saw nothing new. Nothing imminent - just created a department to develop one but everyone knew that already.

Solid orchestrated pump here and it brought other meme stocks with it. Be curious to see when the stock started surging vs when the article was published. 
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The article is 100% driving it. It’s the WSJ so it’s a headline that carries weight even if it says “reported to” meaning that the WSJ basically put together other online articles and maybe talked to someone and basically reiterated what had been said.

 
stbugs said:
The article is 100% driving it. It’s the WSJ so it’s a headline that carries weight even if it says “reported to” meaning that the WSJ basically put together other online articles and maybe talked to someone and basically reiterated what had been said.
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I’m actually curious if the surge started before it was published. 

 
Humana down 20% since Wednesday's close.  Seems a bit of an overreaction.  Might have to make some room in the Roth for this one.  

 
I guess at this point the question is was the entire last two years of mid-cap tech and growth nothing more than people buying tech/growth because of QE and low interest rates?  Like are we going to unwind the entire last 2 years now that those things are tapering?

Some of these stocks are over half way to that already with no signs of slowing down.

 
Bought a little more ETHE @ 26 to DCA.  Keeping it small but sort of feels like I'm buying into a trap.  

 
beef said:
Bought a little more ETHE @ 26 to DCA.  Keeping it small but sort of feels like I'm buying into a trap.  
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I'm adding $100 every time it's down 5%.  It's a good way to DCA in.  Too many people invested in this for it to just vanish.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I guess at this point the question is was the entire last two years of mid-cap tech and growth nothing more than people buying tech/growth because of QE and low interest rates?  Like are we going to unwind the entire last 2 years now that those things are tapering?

Some of these stocks are over half way to that already with no signs of slowing down.
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It feels like a huge overreaction. The long term deflationary pressures of technology hasn't changed in the last two years. I would argue they will continue to grow as we spend the next couple of decades dealing with recurring COVID variants and shutdowns globally.

That said, this trade currently is being driven by the yield curve and Fed Funds futures markets pricing in very aggressive moves this year. My forecast would be that inflation moderates and the Fed doesn't actually hike 3 times in 22, which is the current market.

There is also a multiplier dynamic out there where the ARK complex is seeing so many outflows, similar to what happened with Archegos last year.

 
Desert_Power said:
My forecast would be that inflation moderates and the Fed doesn't actually hike 3 times in 22, which is the current market.
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If I were going to time the market, which we know will end in glorious riches and unbridled success, I’d bet that February reporting of January inflation will confirm we’re not turning into Zimbabwezuela and we might start seeing a little more normalcy. Might still be choppy for awhile, but hopefully these double digit indiscriminate drawdowns will mostly stop.

 
MELI back down almost to where I bought 3 shares to open my position after it got beat up good. Still getting beat up today, much more than others. I think due to Omicrom being not so bad. I wonder if it can break under $1k. Watching. 

 
stbugs said:
MELI back down almost to where I bought 3 shares to open my position after it got beat up good. Still getting beat up today, much more than others. I think due to Omicrom being not so bad. I wonder if it can break under $1k. Watching. 
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It was just a few days ago I was looking and thinking "at least my MELI position is holding up decently, I wish I had more of that".

 
McBokonon said:
If I were going to time the market, which we know will end in glorious riches and unbridled success, I’d bet that February reporting of January inflation will confirm we’re not turning into Zimbabwezuela and we might start seeing a little more normalcy. Might still be choppy for awhile, but hopefully these double digit indiscriminate drawdowns will mostly stop.
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Any reason you think the January CPI number (not actually an inflation number, just called that) will be lower?

I'm of the belief that the majority of the spike in that number is due to supply issues, not inflation.  But not much has really changed with supply issues lately, has it?

We get so much stuff from China and the CPI blew up almost the exact same day as the global shipping rate index blew up, which I don't think is coincidence.  That global shipping rate is still only barely off its high.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Any reason you think the January CPI number (not actually an inflation number, just called that) will be lower?

I'm of the belief that the majority of the spike in that number is due to supply issues, not inflation.  But not much has really changed with supply issues lately, has it?

We get so much stuff from China and the CPI blew up almost the exact same day as the global shipping rate index blew up, which I don't think is coincidence.  That global shipping rate is still only barely off its high.
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I’m going off some earnings calls/interviews last month where CEO’s (FedEx and Walmart off the top of my head) indicated they were seeing some easing of supply chain issues. I am guessing holiday demand might have still impacted that a little and show up when it gets reported this month, and then next month we’ll see that we’re clearly heading in the right direction. Earlier would be awesome.

 
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@McBokonon INMD is about where I jumped in. P/S will be about 12 after Q4 earnings which is crazy low for a company that looks to be growing at 80%+ this year. YoY is a bit easier because they had a tough quarter with the lockdowns so 2020 was only 30% growth after 2019’s 50%. With no disruption I think they would have been 50% in 2020 and 60% in 2021 which is nice to see some acceleration.

It’s funny because technically they are helped by reopening but since they are high growth they fall in the bucket that’s gotten crushed. You planning to add more? I’m thinking about it because it was well over a full share at the top but I didn’t put in a full share.

 
stbugs said:
@McBokonon INMD is about where I jumped in. P/S will be about 12 after Q4 earnings which is crazy low for a company that looks to be growing at 80%+ this year. YoY is a bit easier because they had a tough quarter with the lockdowns so 2020 was only 30% growth after 2019’s 50%. With no disruption I think they would have been 50% in 2020 and 60% in 2021 which is nice to see some acceleration.

It’s funny because technically they are helped by reopening but since they are high growth they fall in the bucket that’s gotten crushed. You planning to add more? I’m thinking about it because it was well over a full share at the top but I didn’t put in a full share.
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I pretty much have a full position so not likely adding but it does look really attractive. I’ll see about topping it off while I’m rebalancing a little. 

 
Watching how stuff shook out in the UK, it diminished faster than South Africa.  The bounce back could be strong here.  There's going to be an all in opportunity here.  Watching for VIX to cross 30 to reallocate.

 
McBokonon said:
Goldman threw out some FUD by predicting 4 rate hikes. I’ll keep adding a little, have an order in for more MELI if it goes below $975.
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Oh man interest rates might go up by another quarter of a percent?

Better knock another 60% off some of these company's valuations.

 
culdeus said:
Watching how stuff shook out in the UK, it diminished faster than South Africa.  The bounce back could be strong here.  There's going to be an all in opportunity here.  Watching for VIX to cross 30 to reallocate.
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You think the red is tied to omnicron? I thought the story was out on that not really being a big deal. 

 
culdeus said:
Watching how stuff shook out in the UK, it diminished faster than South Africa.  The bounce back could be strong here.  There's going to be an all in opportunity here.  Watching for VIX to cross 30 to reallocate.
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^VIX at 30?  That's a ways to go.  edit:  Well, maybe not...  I'll deploy all my cash if that happens.  

I added some TQQQ at 135 this morning.  Starting my load up again on this.  

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Oh man interest rates might go up by another quarter of a percent?

Better knock another 60% off some of these company's valuations.
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Lol. That’s why I know the companies I like will come screaming back. The companies that are still growing like weeds are doing that because they’re selling something people want and want more of and we aren’t going back to the time before tech.

It stings a bit but it’s looking like deploying some cash may be warranted. 

 
Adding some TNA too.  We're going about 50 days now where it's been below the 50 DMA.  52 week low range.    

 
stbugs said:
Lol. That’s why I know the companies I like will come screaming back. The companies that are still growing like weeds are doing that because they’re selling something people want and want more of and we aren’t going back to the time before tech.

It stings a bit but it’s looking like deploying some cash may be warranted. 
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Speaking of growing like weeds....

Tilray (TSE: TLRY) reported higher sales and swung to profit in the second quarter of 2022, taking advantage of the strong demand for its products. 

Tilray is a global cannabis lifestyle and consumer packaged products company with operations in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, and Latin America. 

Sales & Earnings 

Net revenue came in at $155 million for the quarter ended November 30, an increase of 20% from $129 million in the prior-year quarter. The increase is due to a 7% growth in cannabis revenue to $58.8 million, net alcoholic beverage revenue of $13.7 million from SweetWater and wellness segment revenue of $13.8 million from Manitoba Harvest. 

Adjusted EBITDA increased from $10.1 million to $13.8 million. Net income increased to $6 million from a net loss of $89 million in the previous year’s quarter. 

The cannabis operator had a cash balance of $331.8 million at the end of the quarter. 
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Good news is that I doubled down last Friday at the close.  What's sort of embarrassing is that I own so many stocks I forgot what the heck they do.

 
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