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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

Todem said:
When you have once in a decade sell offs......there is no where to really hide in equities. Ever. 

Yet I am net net quite positive on the stock (been holding it since 1983). I never sold into any of that. Bought more on big dips, dividends reinvesting.

I am not going to say it is a better investment than the S&P.....oh god no. In fact it has not been a great stock overall......but it is about perspective with that one. 

I think for current income people.......it does it’s job. And when you buy it is equally as important as what you own. 

I know people who bought GE in the 50’s........they never ever made their money back. So when you buy is just as important. 
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Yeah, you put it better than I did, as usual. This is a current income stock. It is not about total return. Now, stbugs may think that's a stupid approach. But it is valid to some people in some situations. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Yeah, you put it better than I did, as usual. This is a current income stock. It is not about total return. Now, stbugs may think that's a stupid approach. But it is valid to some people in some situations. 
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And there is no defending T the last 5 years.......there have been better current income investments than T. No question. 

I did a lot of tax loss selling of T last year for people that needed some losses to offset the gains we took in other names to build that 20-30% cash position. But they were not net losers because of all that dividend reinvestment for the last decade and half of holding the stock. Was it a great investment? No...not compared to the overall portfolio returns. But there was no “real” loss. Just a paper loss from all the dividend reinvestment. We then bought it back at the lows this year.....so again. Perspective. 

I think at these prices T represents long term value for dividend seekers. The multiple is dirt cheap for a close to 5% dividend payer post spin off of Time Warner. Same for VZ. Very inexpensive stock for the yield you are getting. 

But I would not over allocate to it.....hence making sure you are spreading your risk even when looking for current income.

 
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Speaking of income, I’m restarting my love affair with CDW. They just keep doing what they say they’re going to do and they’re necessary in any environment. Covid? No problem, we’ll help your business get set up to work remotely. Covid been eradicated from the face of the earth? No problem, we’ll help them get back into the office. All the while, we’ll help them all stay up to date. 

The yield is only 1.09% but that’s mainly because the stock still appreciates and should continue to do so. Outside of COVID they increase the dividend significantly every year.

 
stbugs said:
Ugh, man, if only they invested in S&P. Average yield is just under 2%, so likely lower than T, but the appreciation. 30k shares 40 years ago was about $180k. If they never touched the shares they’d have $720k. If you invested in the index 40 years ago, they’d have $4.5M. 2% on that is $90k a year so at some point the yield got higher even if the % was lower.
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He didn't buy that 30k shares, has that many after splits. 

 
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McBokonon said:
Speaking of income, I’m restarting my love affair with CDW. They just keep doing what they say they’re going to do and they’re necessary in any environment. Covid? No problem, we’ll help your business get set up to work remotely. Covid been eradicated from the face of the earth? No problem, we’ll help them get back into the office. All the while, we’ll help them all stay up to date. 

The yield is only 1.09% but that’s mainly because the stock still appreciates and should continue to do so. Outside of COVID they increase the dividend significantly every year.
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How would you compare the HPE. I'm leaning more that direction with lower P/E and bigger div,, but have not yet decided. Watching the VIX closely I'm think the recovery thus far is going to be there will be more pain in the pricing of both

 
cosjobs said:
How would you compare the HPE. I'm leaning more that direction with lower P/E and bigger div,, but have not yet decided. Watching the VIX closely I'm think the recovery thus far is going to be there will be more pain in the pricing of both
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I honestly don’t know much about HPE. CDW is kind of brand agnostic, which I like, and are the dominant player in their niche of small/medium sized businesses. They’re still growing quite a bit. I’m not in a place where fully mature companies appeal to me but I see CDW as pretty stable.

 
 
CletiusMaximus said:
Zillow Group said on Thursday that it lost $881 million on its algorithmic-driven home-flipping business last year in its first earnings report since the real-estate company shut down that operation in the fall. The full company, which includes Zillow’s profitable home-listing and advertising business, posted a consolidated net loss of $528 million in 2021, mostly because of its home-flipping business, Zillow Offers. The flipping outfit had been responsible for the majority of Zillow’s revenue in recent years but none of its profits. The company shocked the market in November by announcing it was closing Zillow Offers because the tech-powered platform failed to accurately predict movements in home prices.
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Wanna give @BassNBrew credit for calling this out before Zillow did as he tried to warn me away from them. I listened eventually but not when I should have.

 
It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.  The market has defied all economic events essentially for the last 10 years (except for that short term covid blip).  The market could correct down to 30k and still be miles up in the last 5 years.  I pulled all but 1/3rd out at DOW 36k.  Not sure where to re-enter, but around DOW 30k seems like a reasonable point to start pushing chips back in.  Maybe a little higher.  Hard to tell with this whole Ukraine thing.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
Zillow Group said on Thursday that it lost $881 million on its algorithmic-driven home-flipping business last year in its first earnings report since the real-estate company shut down that operation in the fall. The full company, which includes Zillow’s profitable home-listing and advertising business, posted a consolidated net loss of $528 million in 2021, mostly because of its home-flipping business, Zillow Offers. The flipping outfit had been responsible for the majority of Zillow’s revenue in recent years but none of its profits. The company shocked the market in November by announcing it was closing Zillow Offers because the tech-powered platform failed to accurately predict movements in home prices.
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Not surprised at all. I sold my house to OpenDoor in July and they just now listed it for sale for 50K less than they paid me.

 
Thanks Putin and gullible sellers of semiconductors so I could add more SOXL under 40.  :thumbup:

<39  :pickle:

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I've come to the realization that 95% of stock market selloffs are just people selling in anticipation of other people selling.

What does a Russian invasion of Ukraine have to do with Roblox to make it drop 5% in 3 minutes? 

I'm buying any Ukraine dips.
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TWLO killed earnings and was already down over 50%. It was up around 20% after hours on Wednesday. It is now down 5% from before the earnings announcement.

AMD again great earnings and merger will be closed on Monday. Down 9%.

The funny thing is after earnings, I feel really good about most of my stocks. I think I may do some consolidation and will wait a bit more for new cash.

 
stbugs said:
TWLO killed earnings and was already down over 50%. It was up around 20% after hours on Wednesday. It is now down 5% from before the earnings announcement.

AMD again great earnings and merger will be closed on Monday. Down 9%.

The funny thing is after earnings, I feel really good about most of my stocks. I think I may do some consolidation and will wait a bit more for new cash.
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Like I said.....there will be more opportunities. A lot of things swirling around. Inflation continues to put pressure on the economy. The Fed may be aggressive with that first hike and raise .50 basis points and that will undoubtably send a short term hawkish shockwave into the markets. 

I think it will only be .25 basis point raises through this year. 

Interest rates are going to rise with or without them if you ask me. the 10 year hit 2% for the first time in 2 years. 

Also again all this recalibration we are going to see in monetary policy is going to present several whipsaw moments in the market to provide some opportunity for those who have some cash.

And of course the black swan stuff you can’t control with geopolitical factors like this we are seeing right now with Russia. 

If you don’t have cash......no worries. Sit tight....make sure you own quality and ride it out. Keep plowing into your 401K every month. 

 
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cosjobs said:
I've been watching Ollie's Bargain Outlet for a while and  I'm going to increase my meager position today. Its 50% cheaper than a year ago with a good 17 P/E.  I think it gets a good Superbowl pop (snacks/food) and with inflation being what it is, I think it will increase its presence in consumer shopping.

I've never been in one (Texas), so it was completely off my radar until a few weeks ago when I was bottom shopping for hugely discounted stocks with good P/Es. 

They certainly aren't wasting a lot of their money on their website and have no online presence. They seem like a better quality Dollar Store
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Think Big Lots more than Dollar Store

 
Todem said:
Like I said.....there will be more opportunities. A lot of things swirling around. Inflation continues to put pressure on the economy. The Fed may be aggressive with that first hike and raise .50 basis points and that will undoubtably send a short term hawkish shockwave into the markets. 

I think it will only be .25 basis point raises through this year. 

Interest rates are going to rise with or without them if you ask me. the 10 year hit 2% for the first time in 2 years. 

Also again all this recalibration we are going to see in monetary policy is going to present several whipsaw moments in the market to provide some opportunity for those who have some cash.

And of course the black swan stuff you can’t control with geopolitical factors like this we are seeing right now with Russia. 

If you don’t have cash......no worries. Sit tight....make sure you own quality and ride it out. Keep plowing into your 401K every month. 
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Oh, got cash, meant I will wait a bit to deploy new cash versus selling A and B to buy more C because I now like C best. 

 
Researchers from MIT recently studied 600,000 brokerage accounts to determine who's most likely to "panic sell" in a crash.

The answer:

Investors who are male, over the age of 45, married or consider themselves as having 'excellent investment experience'.

It gets worse...

The other culprits are investors with small accounts.

Like the flood of newbies who arrived through Robinhood and similar platforms during the pandemic boom.

 
The Man With No Name said:
Researchers from MIT recently studied 600,000 brokerage accounts to determine who's most likely to "panic sell" in a crash.

The answer:

Investors who are male, over the age of 45, married or consider themselves as having 'excellent investment experience'.

It gets worse...

The other culprits are investors with small accounts.

Like the flood of newbies who arrived through Robinhood and similar platforms during the pandemic boom.
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I’m both of those but I have an 8 year time frame and not selling anything in the foreseeable future. Actually looking forward to a dip to deploy the small amount of cash left.

 
The Man With No Name said:
Researchers from MIT recently studied 600,000 brokerage accounts to determine who's most likely to "panic sell" in a crash.

The answer:

Investors who are male, over the age of 45, married or consider themselves as having 'excellent investment experience'.

It gets worse...

The other culprits are investors with small accounts.

Like the flood of newbies who arrived through Robinhood and similar platforms during the pandemic boom.
Click to expand...


I wish I had panic sold some stuff a month ago.

 
The Man With No Name said:
Researchers from MIT recently studied 600,000 brokerage accounts to determine who's most likely to "panic sell" in a crash.

The answer:

Investors who are male, over the age of 45, married or consider themselves as having 'excellent investment experience'.

It gets worse...

The other culprits are investors with small accounts.

Like the flood of newbies who arrived through Robinhood and similar platforms during the pandemic boom.
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This is interesting, I assume this new group is large enough to really move the needle more when they head for the door? This will be interesting to watch…..I probably am that first group a little younger.  :doh:

 
Pipes said:
SE wait
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India apparently included Free Fire on a list of banned “Chinese” apps. I’m hopeful that the recent divestiture involving TenCent is part of the plan to ensure they aren’t lumped in with the rest. Garena isn’t why I’m invested in $SE but it’s definitely nice to have.

 
McBokonon said:
India apparently included Free Fire on a list of banned “Chinese” apps. I’m hopeful that the recent divestiture involving TenCent is part of the plan to ensure they aren’t lumped in with the rest. Garena isn’t why I’m invested in $SE but it’s definitely nice to have.
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I assume India is a big market for that game? 18% down is still quite a big reaction

 
McBokonon said:
India apparently included Free Fire on a list of banned “Chinese” apps. I’m hopeful that the recent divestiture involving TenCent is part of the plan to ensure they aren’t lumped in with the rest. Garena isn’t why I’m invested in $SE but it’s definitely nice to have.
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Wondering if it might be better to move SE money to MELI. MELI is also close to recent lows which are a good bit down. They don’t perfectly overlap but pretty similar and maybe MELI is a bit safer?

 
Re-bought BLDP, ME, CGC

ETA

Put the orders in Saturday and picked BLDP and ME off the low. Already up 4.5 & 7.25%.  I wish I could do that all the time. 

 
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stbugs said:
Wondering if it might be better to move SE money to MELI. MELI is also close to recent lows which are a good bit down. They don’t perfectly overlap but pretty similar and maybe MELI is a bit safer?
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I’m staying/adding to both. SE is more risky because they’re a younger company but that’s where the bigger returns come from, too. Everything is amplified right now. Long term horizon, etc. 

 
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Looks like the AMD acquisition of XLNX closed today...1.7234 shares of AMD for each share of XLNX, is that what we should see in our accounts in the next day or two?  Not sure I've ever held a stock during a closed acquisition like this before.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Looks like the AMD acquisition of XLNX closed today...1.7234 shares of AMD for each share of XLNX, is that what we should see in our accounts in the next day or two?  Not sure I've ever held a stock during a closed acquisition like this before.
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It’s usually done in a day. I’ve had it happen a couple times.

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
Re-bought BLDP, ME, CGC

ETA

Put the orders in Saturday and picked BLDP and ME off the low. Already up 4.5 & 7.25%.  I wish I could do that all the time. 
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EXAS now, too.  Last one to re-buy is FLGT.  

Feeling very fortunate on these.  Sold for the tax loss and then they all got hammered.  So I get my tax write off, shares and a bunch of "extra" cash. 

Looking to add to my SMURF position as well. 

 
Keep looking for the floor for FB.  They were named in a lawsuit today by the AG of Texas for unauthorized use of facial technology.  It briefly hit a new 52 week low today.  Think I will hold off longer.

 
fwiw, here's my Bear defensive portfolio additions over last week or so, making up about 1/3 of my portfolio

TWM

RWN

UVXY

SARK

One third is a huge number of small positions, mostly with good P/Es  and at least 20% off highs, lots of dividends.

One third cash

 
Gopher State said:
Keep looking for the floor for FB.  They were named in a lawsuit today by the AG of Texas for unauthorized use of facial technology.  It briefly hit a new 52 week low today.  Think I will hold off longer.
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Think GM said 175 was his target (sorry if I got the person wrong) — so I am looking for under 200. 

 
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