Stock Thread (33 Viewers)

[FreeBaGeL]

Always learning lessons... Note to self for December 2022.  Just take your profits and pay the tax man.

Re: MTTR.  Doing my last DCA and moving to the long hold or cut the loss. 

Starting to wonder if/when Amazon taps into their petty cash account and buys MTTR to create the Mega Meta Mall.  

I decided not to take profits on so many tech stocks last year because of the tax implications, that are now down huge.

Government creates the SEC to "protect" investors.  Then implements dumb tax rules that coerce us into making poor decisions.  Really grinds my gears.

It's so dumb to me that you can't move money across stocks with creating a taxable event.  With compounding interest being the whole point, it's stupid that if I have $100k that I want to move to AAPL I really only get $75k or so of AAPL once I take some out to pax the taxes.  

 

[ConstruxBoy]

PLTR, OUCH :(

Eh, still in for the long haul. 

 

[Desert_Power]

Finally into Ford

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Eh, still in for the long haul. 

I made trailed a sizeable short term bet. Didn't work out. :(

 

[Capella]

Lol what happened with the Ukraine situation to lead to this? 

 

[Gilroy34]

This stupid mofo just added to HGEN.  I like pain.

 

[ChiefD]

Finally into Ford

Thanks for posting this. I've been waiting to get back in.

 

[beef]

Lol what happened with the Ukraine situation to lead to this? 

Putin sniffed and wiped a little snot from his nose.  Some believe that may be the code sign to launch nukes.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Lol what happened with the Ukraine situation to lead to this? 

Russia said that they are withdrawing troops. The US says they are sending more troops in. 

I'm not sure if that's it or not but only thing I figure. 

 

[beef]

I may have crossed the risk (and/or naive) line a little too much on MTTR as I doubled my position today.  I just don't see this being worth a 20% drop in one day.  

Matterport Q4 EPS $(0.10) Misses $(0.09) Estimate, Sales $27.10M Beat $25.13M Estimate, Total Subs Up 98% To 503K.  

 

[identikit]

I may have crossed the risk (and/or naive) line a little too much on MTTR as I doubled my position today.  I just don't see this being worth a 20% drop in one day.  

Matterport Q4 EPS $(0.10) Misses $(0.09) Estimate, Sales $27.10M Beat $25.13M Estimate, Total Subs Up 98% To 503K.  

I'm in for a chunk

 

[Desert_Power]

Thanks for posting this. I've been waiting to get back in.

Questionable decision given my non-bank track record recently

 

[ghostguy123]

Picked up some SHOP at its 52 week low

Ugh, turns out that wasnt its 52 week low. We got a new low of 670

 

[beef]

@General Malaise  Any updates on the Tin market you're hearing?  I remembered some of your posts from 6 months/a year ago talking about the Tin shortage which got me on AFMJF. 

 

[pecorino]

Been trading calls on this over the past month or two. This latest drop smells like one for which I should wait three days. Might look at buying a short term call come Friday.

I was right--should have waited three days...

 

[Desert_Power]

Ugh, turns out that wasnt its 52 week low. We got a new low of 670

Makes sense. The pandemic is over and all the retailers are building strip malls again.

 

[Gilroy34]

Ugh, turns out that wasnt its 52 week low. We got a new low of 670

In for more at 670

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Added 500 SMURF

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Makes sense. The pandemic is over and all the retailers are building strip malls again.

Strip malls were dying pre-pandemic but who knows, maybe post-pandemic people want to buy things in person again. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Strip malls were dying pre-pandemic but who knows, maybe post-pandemic people want to buy things in person again. 

amazon says hold my digital beer.

660

wheres todem when ya need him 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

amazon says hold my digital beer.

660

wheres todem when ya need him 

Yes, I really like SHOP here. 

 

[ghostguy123]

Yes, I really like SHOP here. 

657

It was 900 two days ago.  Does the earnings report really warrant a 30% drop?  After it had already dropped a ton?

Seriously asking, I dont know anything about anything.  

 

[beef]

Strip malls were dying pre-pandemic but who knows, maybe post-pandemic people want to buy things in person again. 

Since a lot of women turned to Lulu and other spandex style pants during covid, I gotta admit that going out shopping and just sitting on a bench and perv staring is enjoyable.  Hearing my wife rant about how nothing fits continues to suck though.    

 

[Todem]

657

It was 900 two days ago.  Does the earnings report really warrant a 30% drop?  After it had already dropped a ton?

Seriously asking, I dont know anything about anything.  

No....tremendous long term value here on a growth monster. Tech giant. Go long. Don’t worry about this volatility on this name. 

Oversold. 

Definition of long is minimum 3 year hold but easily 5 year hold. 

I think too many people (not saying you) think long is 6 months. 

 

[ghostguy123]

No....tremendous long term value here on a growth monster. Tech giant. Go long. Don’t worry about this volatility on this name. 

Oversold. 

CRM down at 200.

Long here as well?

 

[Todem]

CRM down at 200.

Long here as well?

Yep. 

 

[Todem]

A ton of weak stomachs exiting some outstanding high growth, cash flow positive Big Tech names. 

I am waiting for that to happen to blue chips at this point. I already committed enough powder to tech. I want to see the other shoe drop off in the next 4-6 weeks. Industrials, Staples, Consumer Discretionary etc. Then we know we have reached that moment of “throwing in the towel” to deploy the remaining cash and also do some rebalancing again. 

Low single digit returns on the S&P, Dow and even the Nasdaq by year end. 

In the meantime we have a ton of covered calls expiring in March and April that will be 100% gains....and we will see where we are at and reset them again to add yield to the portfolio and continue to lower cost basis’s on many great stocks. 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Since a lot of women turned to Lulu and other spandex style pants during covid, I gotta admit that going out shopping and just sitting on a bench and perv staring is enjoyable.  Hearing my wife rant about how nothing fits continues to suck though.    

It really is something else what these young ladies wear these days.  I feel like Bob Dole.

 

[GoBirds]

Anyone else having vanguard transaction issues? Come on Vanguard. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Since a lot of women turned to Lulu and other spandex style pants during covid, I gotta admit that going out shopping and just sitting on a bench and perv staring is enjoyable.  Hearing my wife rant about how nothing fits continues to suck though.    

Speaking of which, LuLu is down about 32% from it's high.  I did well on this last year.  In for a share and leaving myself room to DCA down.

 

[McBokonon]

In a similar vein to CRM, today seemed like as good a day as any to get into $ADBE for the first time.

 

[pecorino]

No....tremendous long term value here on a growth monster. Tech giant. Go long. Don’t worry about this volatility on this name. 

Oversold. 

Definition of long is minimum 3 year hold but easily 5 year hold. 

I think too many people (not saying you) think long is 6 months. 

So you're saying NOT a call expiring in 28 days? Think I'm reading that right.

 

[humpback]

No....tremendous long term value here on a growth monster. Tech giant. Go long. Don’t worry about this volatility on this name. 

Oversold. 

Definition of long is minimum 3 year hold but easily 5 year hold. 

I think too many people (not saying you) think long is 6 months. 

Agreed, although it goes both ways. Yes, it's way down recently, but still up over 250% over the last 3 years and ~1000% over the last 5.

Again, is it "cheap" because it's making new 52 week lows, or is it "expensive" because it's up 10x over the last 5 years?

 

[Todem]

Agreed, although it goes both ways. Yes, it's way down recently, but still up over 250% over the last 3 years and ~1000% over the last 5.

Again, is it "cheap" because it's making new 52 week lows, or is it "expensive" because it's up 10x over the last 5 years?

Cheap based on future growth, sales to earnings, price to earnings and again the revenue growth and margins are really oversold. 

We can say the market is vastly overpriced compared to 5 years ago......10 years ago.....100 years ago. 

It is about forward looking on companies. Always about forward looking and future growth and revenues. 

Long term.....there is a ton of value in Mega Cap and large cap tech. No two ways about it. 

I don’t see that same value in Industrials, Staples, Utilities, Oil etc.....not at all. 

Yet.

 

[Todem]

So you're saying NOT a call expiring in 28 days? Think I'm reading that right.

I have calls expiring in third Friday of March and April. I went out mostly on March and April. I have just a couple in May (to get a juicer premium). 

Most are in April. Then we will see where the market is at, the prices on the stocks and how long we want to go out again and how far out of the money. 

 

[beef]

It really is something else what these young ladies wear these days.  I feel like Bob Dole.

  Forgot about that commercial.  That's exactly it man!

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

April $125 SPXL calls looking good again. I wish I would have looked earlier. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So was today's sell-off because of Ukraine or interest rates and other macroeconomic conditions?  I can't keep track anymore.

 

[Todem]

So you're saying NOT a call expiring in 28 days? Think I'm reading that right.

I have covered calls expiring March 18th and April 22nd 

 

[Todem]

So was today's sell-off because of Ukraine or interest rates and other macroeconomic conditions?  I can't keep track anymore.

All of the above.

 

[stinkzmagee]

ROKU getting wrecked

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

ROKU getting wrecked

I never understood this company.  Why is it needed with smart TVs? 

 

[stinkzmagee]

I never understood this company.  Why is it needed with smart TVs? 

Good question. I definitely don’t have an answer.   I also bought shop at 900 and just sold for a juicy loss at 775 and will look to rebuy soon and probably continue to watch it go to like 300z.  So what the hell do I know?  I think the strategy is buy puts on anything.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I never understood this company.  Why is it needed with smart TVs? 

They license the software to be built-in to some smart TVs now, so in some cases the Smart TV software you're using is actually Roku.

It's also nice to have since people often don't consider smart TV software when purchasing a tv and some of the software is really poor.  I bought a nice Sony Bravia TV because of the great picture quality, but the smart tv software is god awful and the first thing I did was hook a Roku up to it.

That is probably an edge case though, I agree.  Their core business isn't as relevant anymore.  I think they're trying to pivot into content some as they now have their own streaming service too, but that seems like a tough sell.

 

[PhillipPhoto]

They license the software to be built-in to some smart TVs now, so in some cases the Smart TV software you're using is actually Roku.

It's also nice to have since people often don't consider smart TV software when purchasing a tv and some of the software is really poor.  I bought a nice Sony Bravia TV because of the great picture quality, but the smart tv software is god awful and the first thing I did was hook a Roku up to it.

That is probably an edge case though, I agree.  Their core business isn't as relevant anymore.  I think they're trying to pivot into content some as they now have their own streaming service too, but that seems like a tough sell.

I didnt want smart for this reason, but, they dont make nonsmart anymore. Then I got a Samsung, amazing, they are catching up and surpassing the likes of Roku. But I guess they might still have a good market for cheap brands without the software capabilities of Samsung. 

 

[PhillipPhoto]

Except you said Sony. You'd think the playstation guys could figure out a smart TV interface like Samsung did. 

 

[stinkzmagee]

@Todem I’m curious since you’ve been at this for a while.  Is this sell off unique due to the fed pumping so much money or other reasons?  Were we so overbought in certain sectors that we were bound to see such sell offs while the overall market is down a significantly less amount?  Or is this something that happens frequently?  This just feels really weird to me.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I didnt want smart for this reason, but, they dont make nonsmart anymore. Then I got a Samsung, amazing, they are catching up and surpassing the likes of Roku. But I guess they might still have a good market for cheap brands without the software capabilities of Samsung. 

I know what you are saying here but made me .  Sounds like something Homer Simpson would say trying to appear intelligent. 

 

[McBokonon]

DKNG getting clobbered. I’m sure the free bets they gave out over the Super Bowl and the losses from these will save them next quarter.

The other day,  they randomly gave us AZ bettors, existing ones, a promotion to bet $25 on the Suns ML when they were a heavy favorite over the Rockets. They reduced the juice from -1500 to +100 - essentially a free bet unless there was a major upset. Suns didn’t have to cover, just win. They won, I withdrew my money again (like always) and will wait for the next time. They really should have something built in to filter out people like me. Anecdotal, yep. But it aligns with their reports.

Completely uninvestable business.

 

[beef]

DKNG getting clobbered. I’m sure the free bets they gave out over the Super Bowl and the losses from these will save them next quarter.

The other day,  they randomly gave us AZ bettors, existing ones, a promotion to bet $25 on the Suns ML when they were a heavy favorite over the Rockets. They reduced the juice from -1500 to +100 - essentially a free bet unless there was a major upset. Suns didn’t have to cover, just win. They won, I withdrew my money again (like always) and will wait for the next time. They really should have something built in to filter out people like me. Anecdotal, yep. But it aligns with their reports.

Completely uninvestable business.

Threw some more money out the winding playing an ad during the first commercial break of the Super Bowl (or maybe it was the ad just before kickoff, either way it was a 1A prime spot).  Surprised the NFL didn't sell the ad rights to the 50 yard line.  Draftkings would have been all over that to plaster their logo there like they did the pitchers mound all through the MLB playoffs.