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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

FreeBaGeL said:
The better question is why the heck did we not all buy puts on ERUS leading up to this?  It seems so obvious now.
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Yep.  The collective brain power in this thread should have produced at least one person shouting this from the rooftops a week or so ago.  

Is there an inverse to ERUS?  Not buying it now, but just curious.  

Edit...Fidelity doesnt let you buy ERUS?

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Yep.  The collective brain power in this thread should have produced at least one person shouting this from the rooftops a week or so ago.  

Is there an inverse to ERUS?  Not buying it now, but just curious.  

Edit...Fidelity doesnt let you buy ERUS?
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It's kinda like..

Every time there is a war, short the market..  should we????

In hindsight it's a no brainer.  Covid, war?  Makes too much sense

 
SFBayDuck said:
I was just looking at two defense ETFs, XAR and ITA.  I ended up starting a position in XAR as ITA was too heavy on just Raytheon (22%) and Boeing (18%) for my taste.  Both are US-only stocks though.  I didn't dig too deep, but didn't see any European-focused equivalents on Fidelity.
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Good thinking there. 

 
Re:  Hindsight

I saw some shouting here.  But it wasn't to play the inverse ETFs and short the market.  It was be patient, buy the big dip coming, and accelerate out because most of us here are Bulls and Longs.  I do a lot of day trading, but I try to focus my day trading on companies/sectors I also believe in long term.  Sitting and waiting for a stock to rebound can test your patience and be hard, but getting stuck in a 3x bear ETF can be a f'n killer.  

 
Getting close to fully invested. Opened positions in JMP and CMI this morning. Added some GOOG. Thinking about selling some GLD to generate cash but think I'll stand pat on gold right now.

 
beef said:
Re:  Hindsight

I saw some shouting here.  But it wasn't to play the inverse ETFs and short the market.  It was be patient, buy the big dip coming, and accelerate out because most of us here are Bulls and Longs.  I do a lot of day trading, but I try to focus my day trading on companies/sectors I also believe in long term.  Sitting and waiting for a stock to rebound can test your patience and be hard, but getting stuck in a 3x bear ETF can be a f'n killer.  
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Yep.  On average the stock market is up annually 74% of the time.  I can understand reducing risk by moving some stock to cash or bonds but to go with a 3x bear ETF is usually a losing bet.  It's like betting a lot of money that a career 74% free throw shooter will miss free throws.  Not for me.

 
Somebody tell me this is the crescendo. I know I want to sell everything. But when I bought all those speculative things, I knew a day like this would come, and panic is not a strategy.

 
kevzilla said:
Somebody tell me this is the crescendo. I know I want to sell everything. But when I bought all those speculative things, I knew a day like this would come, and panic is not a strategy.
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I'm holding and buying with every paycheck I get.  I think we'll look back at these times and wish we would have bought more.  

 
My problem is that I'm low on dry powder now, so I may have to sell one or more of these losers. STMH is just down too much to raise meaningful capital. BLDP or QS might wind up not getting a rose.

 
beef said:
I'm holding and buying with every paycheck I get.  I think we'll look back at these times and wish we would have bought more.  
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This is feeling more and more like 2008 to me everyday. These stock market highs were built on low interest (going away), massive QE (going away), relatively low energy costs (gone), etc.

Add in these factors and our economy is in trouble:

- Student Loan Debt is not sustainable. 

- Commercial property is going to get slammed with so many more people working from home. 

- Inflation is way higher than the 7% the government is advertising. Food, energy, housing, transportation, leisure, etc are all experiencing 20+% inflation.

- China's Evergrande (and associated real estate issues) are likely going to default ripping the world's markets.

- War in Ukraine

- Supply shortages

- Margin debt (https://twitter.com/northmantrader/status/1353316700087865344)

and finally, some dirty hedge funds and market makers who decided to cellar box a certain meme stock are going to eventually blow up from a margin call that will likely ripple through the whole damn market when it happens (Think Archegos, but substantially bigger).

 
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David Dodds said:
This is feeling more and more like 2008 to me everyday. These stock market highs were built on low interest (going away), massive QE (going away), relatively low energy costs (gone), etc.

Add in these factors and our economy is in trouble:

- Student Loan Debt is not sustainable. 

- Commercial property is going to get slammed with so many more people working from home. 

- Inflation is way higher than the 7% the government is advertising. Food, energy, housing, transportation, leisure, etc are all experiencing 20+% inflation.

- China's Evergrande (and associated real estate issues) are likely going to default ripping the world's markets.

- War in Ukraine

- Supply shortages

and finally, some dirty hedge funds and market makers who decided to cellar box a certain meme stock are going to eventually blow up from a margin call that will likely ripple through the whole damn market when it happens (Think Archegos, but substantially bigger).
Click to expand...
I totally understand that 2008 feeling.  Lots of things seem to be piling up.  And who knows, maybe these holding/buying times may be a couple of years and not just months.  Or we're only half way down the V.  If the market is still struggling 5 years from now, or were only at the beginning of the V, I think I'll have way bigger things to be concerned about.

Kind of why I'm staying heavy in big banks.  P/E's aren't crazy, they're posting earnings and buying back shares, and they have that "too big to let fail" insurance policy from Congress.  

 
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beef said:
I'm holding and buying with every paycheck I get.  I think we'll look back at these times and wish we would have bought more.  
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Whenever there is any dip in anything people act like it’s catastrophic and there is no going back. History tells us this will all rebound and if you buy and hold through it you will come out ahead. Ignore the doom and gloom on Twitter, tiktok and Reddit and stick to your plan. Those people are psychos. 

 
Capella said:
Whenever there is any dip in anything people act like it’s catastrophic and there is no going back. History tells us this will all rebound and if you buy and hold through it you will come out ahead. Ignore the doom and gloom on Twitter, tiktok and Reddit and stick to your plan. Those people are psychos. 
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I like to keep it simple and buy dips. Sure, things can keep going down and then at some point I may run out of investible cash. These are the times I build that dry powder for. It hurts to check the accounts daily, but I'm 33 so it really doesn't impact the long term plan.

ETA: I moved $5k from my savings account and invested just this AM :shrug:

 
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David Dodds said:
This is feeling more and more like 2008 to me everyday. These stock market highs were built on low interest (going away), massive QE (going away), relatively low energy costs (gone), etc.

Add in these factors and our economy is in trouble:

- Student Loan Debt is not sustainable. 

- Commercial property is going to get slammed with so many more people working from home. 

- Inflation is way higher than the 7% the government is advertising. Food, energy, housing, transportation, leisure, etc are all experiencing 20+% inflation.

- China's Evergrande (and associated real estate issues) are likely going to default ripping the world's markets.

- War in Ukraine

- Supply shortages

- Margin debt (https://twitter.com/northmantrader/status/1353316700087865344)

and finally, some dirty hedge funds and market makers who decided to cellar box a certain meme stock are going to eventually blow up from a margin call that will likely ripple through the whole damn market when it happens (Think Archegos, but substantially bigger).
Click to expand...
this is an interesting summary. from October 2007 to March 2009, the market lost over 50% of it's value. where do you think we go from here?

 
Maik Jeaunz said:
this is an interesting summary. from October 2007 to March 2009, the market lost over 50% of it's value. where do you think we go from here?
Click to expand...


I have no idea on the bottom, but when hedge funds start getting margin called, this could create a series of dominoes that keep the markets in freefall for a bit. If I was to hazard a guess, we could still fall another 20+%. Companies are beating expectations and dropping 10% afterhours. What happens when the inflation, shortages, and high fuel costs have them start missing estimates?

 
Nick Vermeil said:
I’m so mad at myself on NRGU. Made a ton but if I’d just held!!! Crazy. 
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That's why I can't be too mad since I made a ton.  Multiple HR game.  Definitely in my stock trading HOF.  I do still have 10 shares in my roth I've been holding onto!  I should sell them but it's one of few greens for me that I kind hold onto it for my mental health.  

 
David Dodds said:
I have no idea on the bottom, but when hedge funds start getting margin called, this could create a series of dominoes that keep the markets in freefall for a bit. If I was to hazard a guess, we could still fall another 20+%. Companies are beating expectations and dropping 10% afterhours. What happens when the inflation, shortages, and high fuel costs have them start missing estimates?
Click to expand...
Ouch.  It feels like you are projecting 2 catches, 29 yards and .15 TDs for Cooper Kupp.

 
beef said:
That's why I can't be too mad since I made a ton.  Multiple HR game.  Definitely in my stock trading HOF.  I do still have 10 shares in my roth I've been holding onto!  I should sell them but it's one of few greens for me that I kind hold onto it for my mental health.  
Click to expand...
Set a low (from here) limit and then buy back. Seeing Trade NRGU at any level baby!

 
Everybody's off tech. Don't remember it being this hated in a long time. Made me want to start scaling in so upped my exposure 5% today, all tech.

 
David Dodds said:
I have no idea on the bottom, but when hedge funds start getting margin called, this could create a series of dominoes that keep the markets in freefall for a bit. If I was to hazard a guess, we could still fall another 20+%. Companies are beating expectations and dropping 10% afterhours. What happens when the inflation, shortages, and high fuel costs have them start missing estimates?
Click to expand...
Interest rate increases are the wild card in how the market goes, 3 rate increases or 7 who knows.  My broker keeps telling me own only companies that make a profit or pay a dividend.

 
I can’t be the only one at a bit of a loss on what to do in this market.  It’s seems like growth and tech are on fire sale, but I’ve lost my ### there over the last year and want to see some sort of bottom form before going deeper there and potentially throwing more good money after bad.  I like the idea of energy and dividend stocks but energy is now at multi year or all time highs and many of the dividend payers are the same.  I’d hate to fall into the same trap I did with growth and buy the highs.  I had some buy targets set for a number of those dividend names but it doesn’t look like they’ll get there.  Staying with the cash I have is an option I suppose.  Anyone seeing dividend or dividend/growth names that they think are at attractive levels I should check out? I was eyeing up LYB, MDU, and PFE from @Todem list.

 
Precious metals have definitely softened some of the pains that my portfolio has seen in the markets lately.  Luckily I got into them at far lower levels than they are now--but I feel like they deserve a little more mention than they are receiving in this thread. So far-- seems to me that the precious metals have been far more "decoupled" to the equity market than even crypto has in this inflationary and geopolitically turbulent environment.   I've said it before--you don't invest in them to get rich--you invest in them to avoid going poor when there is turbulence in the markets.  They are a solid store of wealth that don't carry some of the potential future regulatory issues that come with some of the cryptos.   

 
David Dodds said:
This is feeling more and more like 2008 to me everyday. These stock market highs were built on low interest (going away), massive QE (going away), relatively low energy costs (gone), etc.

Add in these factors and our economy is in trouble:

- Student Loan Debt is not sustainable. 

- Commercial property is going to get slammed with so many more people working from home. 

- Inflation is way higher than the 7% the government is advertising. Food, energy, housing, transportation, leisure, etc are all experiencing 20+% inflation.

- China's Evergrande (and associated real estate issues) are likely going to default ripping the world's markets.

- War in Ukraine

- Supply shortages

- Margin debt (https://twitter.com/northmantrader/status/1353316700087865344)

and finally, some dirty hedge funds and market makers who decided to cellar box a certain meme stock are going to eventually blow up from a margin call that will likely ripple through the whole damn market when it happens (Think Archegos, but substantially bigger).
Click to expand...


I'll never understand this line of thinking. You're acting as though these are unknown to the masses and you've got insider info. 

These points are all fully known, understood, and already priced into the current market. It's as simple as that. 

 
Gopher State said:
Interest rate increases are the wild card in how the market goes, 3 rate increases or 7 who knows.  My broker keeps telling me own only companies that make a profit or pay a dividend.
Click to expand...


Find a new broker. One who isn't living in the 1950's and siphoning off most of your gains

 
Warrior said:
Find a new broker. One who isn't living in the 1950's and siphoning off most of your gains
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Yea “I guarantee you 6 percent” while he or she is re-investing it for 15-20. 
 

Those folks love fear like this. They’re going to make a killing in the next year to 18 months 

 
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Gopher State said:
Interest rate increases are the wild card in how the market goes, 3 rate increases or 7 who knows.  My broker keeps telling me own only companies that make a profit or pay a dividend.
Click to expand...
What is your time horizon?  Secondly—does your investment portfolio currently not have any stocks from companies that are profitable and pay dividends?   If you have a long term time horizon—generally speaking—market dips/corrections generally end up being opportunities to expand your portfolio at a discount.  If you have a short term time horizon—companies that are not very profitable, that trade at high multiples, that don’’t pay dividends are likely to face some headwinds and turbulence over the next 6-18 months. 

 
Gopher State said:
Interest rate increases are the wild card in how the market goes, 3 rate increases or 7 who knows.  My broker keeps telling me own only companies that make a profit or pay a dividend.
Click to expand...
This is what Cramer has been saying just about every show the last month or so. 

FWIW

 
Futures ugly, crude going crazy, wheat through the roof.  This is getting ugly fast.  Speculative growth stocks that are down 80% may be down 90% real soon considering spy is still only down 15% or so.  I don’t think I can bring myself to sell here given the massive loss I’ve already seen but I’m not buying more growth until I see some sort of stability.  I think I’m going to be staring at some of these positions for quite some time.  Damn.

 
beef said:
Re:  Hindsight

I saw some shouting here.  But it wasn't to play the inverse ETFs and short the market.  It was be patient, buy the big dip coming, and accelerate out because most of us here are Bulls and Longs.  I do a lot of day trading, but I try to focus my day trading on companies/sectors I also believe in long term.  Sitting and waiting for a stock to rebound can test your patience and be hard, but getting stuck in a 3x bear ETF can be a f'n killer.  
Click to expand...
I wasn't shouting, but I've been buying for 2-3 weeks now.  I posted a couple  times on ride up, but people hate the guys who play the Don't Come line. I think Todem's capitulation is in play. 

 
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