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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

Desert_Power said:
Looking back, it is more like a month. They've basically been moving pretty consistently from 2 in early Nov to 6/7 recently. Around year end, a lot of fixed income shops were predicting more than 3, but I think 7 was an outlier.
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Good, long summary from the end of Jan:

What Bloomberg Economists Say

“Our baseline is for the Fed to hike five times, each 25-
basis points, this year, and balance sheet runoff to begin in
July. Our in-house rule for the Fed’s reaction function flags an
upside risk for a 50 bps-hike in March followed by five 25-bps
hike in the rest of the year.”
-- Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist

A weekend report from economists at Goldman Sachs Group
Inc. highlighted the difficulty in predicting the Federal Open
Market Committee. 

“The FOMC could hike fewer than five times if market
conditions change abruptly at some point or if the economy
decelerates even more than our below-consensus forecast
implies,” said the economists led by Jan Hatzius. “But it could
also hike more than five times in 2022 if inflation remains high
enough to make continuing to hike at every meeting a natural
course later in the year as well.”

Here is a rundown of banks’ forecasts:

Bank of America Corp.

* Seven quarter-point hikes this year, acting at every remaining
policy meeting to end 2022 at a range of 1.75% to 2%
* Balance sheet reduction to be announced in May
* One hike each quarter in 2023, taking the benchmark to a peak
of 2.75% to 3%


Nomura Holdings Inc.

* A 50 basis-point hike in March, followed by three quarter-
point moves in May, June, July to end the year at 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in May, effective June
* Quarter-point moves in June and December of 2023


BNP Paribas SA

* Six quarter-point hikes this year, at each remaining meeting
except November, finishing 2022 at 1.5% to 1.75%
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in June, effective July
* Further increases in 2023 to end the year at 2.25% to 2.5%


Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

* Five quarter-point hikes this year, coming in March, May,
July, September and December, to reach 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet reduction announced in June
* In 2023, three quarter-point hikes, followed by more in 2024
to reach 2.5% to 2.75%


JPMorgan Chase & Co.

* Five quarter-point hikes this year, coming in March, May,
July, November and December, to reach 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet reduction announced in June
* Two hikes at the start of 2023 and then in June to end up at
2.5% to 2.75%
* “If developments call for more tightening than in our
forecast, we would first remove these pauses before penciling in
50bps moves,” economist Michael Feroli


Deutsche Bank AG

* Five quarter-point hikes this year, coming in March, May and
June, then quarterly in the second half, to reach 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet reduction announced in July
* Three hikes in 2023 to leave the rate just above 2%


Wells Fargo Securities LLC 

* Five quarter-point hikes this year, coming in March, May,
June, September and December, reaching 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet reduction announced in July
* Another 75 basis points of rate increases in 2023


Citigroup Inc.

* Five quarter-point hikes this year, coming in March, May and
June, then quarterly in the second half, to reach 1.25% to 1.5%
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in June, effective July
* Quarterly hikes in 2023 to reach 2.25% to 2.5% at year-end


Morgan Stanley

* Stuck with its call for hikes in March, June, September and
December albeit with a “meaningful risk that at least some of
these hikes would be delivered sequentially”
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in July
* Two hikes in 2023 to reach 1.5% to 1.75%


Standard Chartered Plc 

* Four consecutive quarter-point hikes forecast for March, May,
June and July
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in May
* Two hikes in 2023 to end the year at 1.5% to 1.75%

Barclays Plc

* Continues to forecast hikes in March, June and September,
raising the benchmark to 0.75% to 1%
* Balance-sheet runoff will be announced in May
* Three more hikes in 2023 to reach 1.5% to 1.75%

 
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fruity pebbles said:
there’s no way they get up to 7 without throwing us into a recession……..if we’re not headed that way already. 
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Maybe... but 7 rate hikes will still have us at historically low interest rates, and the economy is still super strong and ready to roar.  I don't see having the interest rate around 2.5 to 3% sending us into a recession over the rate being at .5%.  Even a 3% rate is basically nothing and arguably where we should have already been for some while.  If they keep increasing beyond that, we will see. 

 
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GreenNGold said:
Maybe... but 7 rate hikes will still have us at historically low interest rates, and the economy is still super strong and ready to roar.  I don't see having the interest rate around 2.5 to 3% sending us into a recession over the rate being at .5%.  Even a 3% rate is basically nothing and arguably where we should have already been for some while.  If they keep increasing beyond that, we will see. 
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If inflation stays where it’s at for any length of time, I think that roaring economy comes to a grinding halt. I could be wrong but retail sales that just came out tell and ominous tale. Take out “needs” and it was negative. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
Feels like a disconnect here. 10 year yield is up substantially and tech is up as well. 
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Unknown is the enemy and tech has been battered way more than a couple percent interest rate hike. No idea if it’ll stick or not. I’ve got enough skin in the game that I’m leaving my powder a little dry still.

 
Damn....didn't look all day.  I own north of 100 stocks and was up 7% today.  Mind boggling these stocks can move this much in a day.

 
kevzilla said:
Kinda feels like a relief rally. It will probably follow through tomorrow, too. We will return to our regularly-scheduled misery on Monday. Still considering selling this bump in BLDP and QS.
Click to expand...
Unsure how to play this. I’ll take the almost 15% up the past few days after taking it in the rear for a bit. I keep saying I’ll consolidate some of the don’t like as much stocks into my favorites but I am worried that every pop has been beaten down again.

 
The Commish said:
I've watched this for decades.  The only thing more puzzling is why less processed diesel fuel is more expensive than regular fuel.  Some will claim demand, but that isn't the case...it isn't near enough difference in demand to drive that sort of price gap.  Diesel is easier and cheaper to create.
Click to expand...
Not enough refineries produce diesel

 
kevzilla said:
Kinda feels like a relief rally. It will probably follow through tomorrow, too. We will return to our regularly-scheduled misery on Monday. Still considering selling this bump in BLDP and QS.
Click to expand...
What’s your cost basis on QS and BLDP and how many shares in each.

 
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Todem said:
What’s your cost basis on QS and BLDP and how many shares in each.
Click to expand...
Just 100 shares of each. Cost basis is $25.37 for BLDP and $27.53 for QS. Although the share counts are small and they've taken a beating, they represent over 7% of this purely speculative account. I could combine that capital with the cash remaining and maybe fund two more productive positions.

I could just hold, too. I can sort of make a case for either one to get back to even, but both...I don't know, man.

 
General Malaise said:
YOU

YOU YOU YOU YOU!!!!!


UUUU LETS F GOOOOOOOOOOO!111
Click to expand...


Please drop this schtick..... PLAY PLAY PLAY

PLAY GONE down, down down.

Lesson....don't poke the bear.

General Malaise said:
BROS had a nice 11% move today.  Drink up, children!  
Click to expand...


Time to exit 1/2 again.  Been doing well here buying the dips and selling the pops.  Thanks again for the report you sent.  Once the target price 3 years out hit, it made it an easy sell.  

 
People see what they want to see I suppose, but I am giddy over the Gamestop quarterly filings. I will be adding shares in the morning.

 
Capella said:
Maybe there is no real answer to this but what is your target price? 
Click to expand...


to buy or sell? I am guessing it reaches the 52 week low tomorrow (to buy). I am not selling (unless forced to by DTCC/DOJ/SEC termination of stock). I believe a short squeeze is imminent. 

This report confirms to me that the number of shares sold far surpasses the number of shares that are suppose to exist. 

I also believe in Ryan Cohen's turn around plan. If this stock never officially squeezes (or is not forced to close because of massive fraud) then I suspect it is on a journey similar to the great TESLA (or Overstock) runs where the shorts are eventual buyers.

For me, the price is beyond wrong. I hold my high X,XXX shares for generational wealth for my family and friends.

I could layout my detailed position how I KNOW that the short positions are in deep trouble, but I don't wish to derail this thread further nor do I want the added responsibility should the stock price continue to move further south in the short term. This is not a stock to trade for the faint of heart. 

I am diamond hands and Zen though. It will be food stamps or Ferraris for me. There is not a price that I would panic sell. I only own this stock (I am bearish on the entire market as I believe the ripple that will be felt from the GME squeeze will ripple every other investment class - ie on par or greater than the 2008 market crash). I do own a sizeable stake in LRC Crypto (which I believe will be the backbone of the GME NFT Exchange they are readying for launch). 

Best of luck everyone in all of your investments.

 
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I actually tried out BROS the other day to see what all the fuss is out.  Definitely targeting the younger demographic.  I'm pretty sure there wasn't anything on the menu with less than 100g of sugar.  Double soy pumpkin mango latte swirl, and the like.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I actually tried out BROS the other day to see what all the fuss is out.  Definitely targeting the younger demographic.  I'm pretty sure there wasn't anything on the menu with less than 100g of sugar.  Double soy pumpkin mango latte swirl, and the like.
Click to expand...


Yeah I dont drink coffee, I just buy stock

:banned:

 
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