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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
David Dodds
Administrator
then why are you investing in FLGT?
GameStop hit a low of $77.77 just over a month ago on 5/12. It's been a steady producer since then against a failing market. Just up against a backdrop of losing stocks is ok by me.
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Investing in FLGT because they....
1) They have very little long term debt, they have 353 million in cash (not counting other short term investments)
2) They have exciting new products. Early Liver Cancer detection https://www.fulgentgenetics.com/helioliver
3) People have been assuming the Covid revenue is going away, it isn't
4) Their market cap is 1.5 billion, there assets are 1.46 billion.
I bought some GME in the low 80's to hedge against the money I owe you.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
They are cheaper. I'm not sure why but happy to buy them. My 7/15/22 $25 puts have gone up considerably for obvious reasons. I guess whomever is selling the $10 puts so cheap doesn't think there's even a possibility if goes that low.
Yes, that makes break even at $9.78. Holding, this is going to pennies a share at some point and IMO I think sooner than later.
They are cheaper because you're much closer to the expiration date. Can't speak for SquirrelNut, but in a vast majority of trades like this, one is looking to sell them soon on a big drop, not holding them towards expiration. Every day that goes by, the value decays (again, that's why the price has dropped even though the share price also dropped) so sooner than later is wise.
David Dodds
Administrator
BassNBrew said:
The rocket ride is for everyone. Don't sell to soon. GME is just getting started here.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Yes, I understand that but it hasn't moved that much closer to expiration. Normally I would be looking to flip them early but this one is different. They don't even have a business plan for crying out loud.
Time will tell and I have 3 months.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold these for a slight profit. I don't like holding short term trades over the weekend.2Squirrels1Nut said:
Caveman33
Footballguy
Aren't SPACs supposed to have around $10 in intrinsic value? I think if a SPAC fails to merge, they are required to return $10 per share plus interest and minus costs to investors. It may still trade below $10, especially if the merger looks like it is actually happening. Cause once the merger happens, then it's just a company on the way to bankruptcy.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
That's what was being sold but the vast majority of them that actually went public are well below that. SOFI, ME, there are countless others. The big difference is that those companies have a business plan, revenue, and are STILL struggling. SPACs have almost unanimously been horrible.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Right but I think his point is that they all went below that AFTER the merger. We haven't really seen any go more than a handful of cents under $10 pre-merger if I recall.
DWAC/TMTG merger isn't scheduled until mid September.
Sand
Footballguy
Some tidbits on the action lately.
- The bond market is, right now, at a point where it's a 4x worse return than ever in history.
- 90% of the S&P has declined in the last 5 of 7 days. That hasn't been seen since 1928.
- 40% of the S&P has just hit a new 52 week low. That's a once in 20 year type event.
- Hedge funds have sold like never before (or since it was tracked).
...and right now futures are down for next week.
- The bond market is, right now, at a point where it's a 4x worse return than ever in history.
- 90% of the S&P has declined in the last 5 of 7 days. That hasn't been seen since 1928.
- 40% of the S&P has just hit a new 52 week low. That's a once in 20 year type event.
- Hedge funds have sold like never before (or since it was tracked).
...and right now futures are down for next week.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
On the bright side, futures have flipped and are nicely green now. So maybe on Tuesday we'll open green and feel better about ourselves for a few minutes before all hope is killed again.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Sold for a quick profit. May keep going but I’ll bank my short terms where I can get them. These rallies have moved up quickly but stop just as fast.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I think that's a good call. It's tempting to try and short today the way things have been going.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Fingers crossed that this is not a dead cat bounce.
Capella
Footballguy
I hate to be a pessimist but on days like this something wonky always seems to happen after hours like some stock you’ve never heard of misses estimate by 9 dollars and the market collapses 6%.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Scuttlebutt going around is that this was short covering. I hope not. I need some good news. Soon.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Of course it is a dead cat bounce. Not to say that there can't be bear market rallies--as they will happen. With that said--why do you think there should be a tangible rally and not a dead cat bounce? Nothing changed yesterday to sky rocket the markets. We basically found out that even the fed will be limited it what it can do to truly combat the type of inflation that is handicapping people. The fed is not going to solve the energy problem and shoot down prices of oil or electricity. The fed is not able to solve the supply chain issues/russia+ukraine war that is shooting up grain prices. Heck--the fed hasn't even done a lot when it comes to action on the balance sheets. Both the US and Russia conceded that the war in Ukraine was likely to be a very long battle--which certainly is not favorable when it comes to controlling food inflation. Let's also not forget that Russia basically captured two Americans that went to the warzone and fought for Ukraine (seems like a mercenary type of situation). Russia has already stated that because they were not actually a part of the Ukrainian military that they are not subject to the protections granted by the Geneva convention. Already a couple british soldiers were captured by the Russians and are sentenced to death by firing squad. If that happens to the American soldiers--the markets (outside of maybe defense companies) could really get crazy.
Basically speaking--there is a good chance that we are going to be living in a world where the costs of the essential goods we need to survive (food, energy, water, rent/housing) will all be high--and there is likely going to be a surplus of goods/lower prices for items that are not as essential. You already have seen a fairly rapid tightening of the job market---hiring is slowing down and lots of companies are starting to implement layoffs. The cheaper prices for non-essential goods will hurt the margins of companies that paid a premium to order and ship that inventory at inflated prices.
The housing market will slow down and some of the "net worth" accumulated by homeowners due to the values of their properties rising to meteoric levels will most likely drop a bit. Between the market cap losses of equities, crypto, home values...etc---a lot of "net worth" that was accumulated in a time where the fed/monetary policy financially engineered markets to rise meteorically and artificially during the pandemic is already being wiped away. People with less net worth will have less access to capital, less disposable income and consequently a lot of earnings of companies will drop. As I said before--if you have a long term investment horizon--cherry picking quality stocks from quality companies in this environment can and probably does make sense. However--hoping for the market to have a big rally without any justification for it would just be setting us up for a more violent downturn in the future.
I would personally prefer to see a market that is not so Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde--but I do think that we are bound to be in some turbulent times in the next 6-12 months--and I think the turbulence can end with another 6-12 month period of either flat or slightly decreasing markets. I hope I'm wrong though.
Capella
Footballguy
I feel bad for those guys but that’s a gigantic stretch to suggest that will affect the market.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
We can agree to disagree. I’d argue that if two British and American citizens got executed by firing squad in Russia that ignoring the potential market impacts would be a huge stretch. It would massively complicate any chances of ending the war through diplomacy and it could spark NATO to physically get involved in the war beyond just providing supplies and weapons. It’s a situation where the only possibility relative to the markets is negative imo.
Capella
Footballguy
NATO and the US is not entering the war because a couple of mercenaries get killed. It will spark some ugly headlines for sure but we are not entering war for that reason.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
How does most everything go up a chunk yesterday, yes Disney still went red?
91?? Buy or avoid?
91?? Buy or avoid?
Meh, I’m not really sure. As an MCU fan, I’ll be honest that I’m not excited for the next wave. Dr. Strange is still part of the Avengers wave but the other stuff has been pretty meh. Disney+ IMHO is anchored by MCU and Star Wars so any slow down there is kind of a double whammy. Going to Disney is also crazy expensive so a recession could really hit them hard. I don’t see a lot of optimism.
Capella
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Getting an itchy trigger finger. Looking at you UCO!
Chadstroma
Footballguy
UWMC update.
As predicted, UWM just announced a 50 to 100 BPS lowering on all products (that means all their mortgage loans they have reduced by a minimum of .5 and up to 1% lower for those who don't speak BPS).
They are the largest wholesale lender in the country and second largest lender period. Ishbia has said he expects to be the #1 lender in the country in the near future.
The pie is shrinking due to the headwinds of the industry but UWM will be taking a much bigger portion of that pie.
As predicted, UWM just announced a 50 to 100 BPS lowering on all products (that means all their mortgage loans they have reduced by a minimum of .5 and up to 1% lower for those who don't speak BPS).
They are the largest wholesale lender in the country and second largest lender period. Ishbia has said he expects to be the #1 lender in the country in the near future.
The pie is shrinking due to the headwinds of the industry but UWM will be taking a much bigger portion of that pie.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
thank you Chad. I dunno if this is a good thing or a bad thing. can you dumb it down a little bit more? i'm reading this as less income on a per loan basis but expecting same or better return overall through volume. Is that in the right ballpark?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
It is good.
Yes, they will make less on a per loan but they will continue to grow while most.... actually, that is wrong.... ALL lenders except UWM are shrinking. They will make that money up and more (I bet) on volume all while retaining their organizational capacity for when rates come back down and all the people buying now will end up refinancing again and all these lenders shedding payroll will end up having to hire again to grow capacity. While other lenders are reactionary, UWM anticipates and makes moves that not only helps then win today but win tomorrow. They will dominate.
I am still long on this stock. I think the dividend yield is over 10% now. That should be fine and there should be great room for return later.
That all being said, I have been saying great things about UWM since they offered shares at about $10 so.... I do think some FBG's have lost money listening to me (sorry guys) as I have as well (I think most of my shares were bought around $8) but I have never have seen this as a rapid riser and think it is a long term buy and hold. Now is prob a great entry point.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Also...
There is an expectation that more than a couple of lenders will not make it through this rate environment. They will sell or go bankrupt. It is just a matter of time.
This move, by the largest wholesale lender in the country, will actually put more pressure on these lenders. What will happen is this. Retail lenders are going to be ridiculously outpriced by a broker right now. Not only will they lose loans but even more, they will lose MLO's. With the easy money and big huge loan pipeline's gone, many MLO's from retail are looking to make the move to the broker side. I have seen this in both actual data and anecdotal evidence. Other wholesale lenders will be forced to drop their rates as well or they simply will not get enough loans. No other lender can compete with UWM on ease, speed and reliability so the only way that they can compete is by pricing. Many of these lenders have smaller margins than UWM to begin with. So, this will not only force competition out of the market but grow the wholesale channel (by growing brokers).
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Nine Energy Service is down $0.21, 7.5%, to $2.67 a share.Capella said:
Going to be a rough day tomorrow. :(
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Cramer lighting up SPACs. Hard to argue with him but probably because every one I seemed to gamble on lost. 
Have there been any SPACs that have done well? I'm not talking a spike but a long term trend up or even flat.
Have there been any SPACs that have done well? I'm not talking a spike but a long term trend up or even flat.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Feels like an avoid. We just booked airline flights to go see my wife’s parents usually 250 per ticket non stop, now with one stop 500 per ticket. Rental car use to be 29.99 a day now 144.00. I think people will rethink traveling to Disney at these prices. Don’t like all the money there throwing down the streaming hole as well.ghostguy123 said:
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Capella said:
The only thing I don't like is there isn't talk about reinstating the dividend. However agree it's a long term buy and a steal at these prices. The value of IP DIS owns alone is mind bottling.
