FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It was me. But like I said at the time, I was going to be too stupid/stubborn to do it myself (didn't have a large amount so could just stubbornly hold it), and then here we are.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
It was me. But like I said at the time, I was going to be too stupid/stubborn to do it myself (didn't have a large amount so could just stubbornly hold it), and then here we are.
|GME?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Looks like I picked off the low buying at $32.30!!!
My whole 10 shares that I never got around to adding more.
Capella
Footballguy
Runkle
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Looks like we were right back in May when the initial signs of the cookie crumbling started.
shadrap
Footballguy
with inflation & energy costs I don't think we have seen the lows yet for the stock market. sitting on cash. got out on May 28th. they say you can't time the market so of course I'm trying to time the market. caveat: I'm an average/below average investor knowledge wise, at best.
Gopher State
Footballguy
I agree on the cash. Appears we will have another hot inflation report, which will lead to another .75 rate increase by the fed, and muted forward earnings by companies. Nothing says buy me now.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
3, XLF, $33 in the money puts that expire 7/15 for $1.13.
Following Steve Leishman on this one. He's a grouchy guy but I like his track record. He was one of the few people telling people to sell because this correction was coming. FWIW
Following Steve Leishman on this one. He's a grouchy guy but I like his track record. He was one of the few people telling people to sell because this correction was coming. FWIW
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I've stayed fully invested in my retirement accounts, but in my after-tax/trading accounts I'm currently at about 40% cash. Some of that is due to selling PDBC (commodities fund) to lock in profits as it broke below trend, but some is cash I've transferred in but haven't invested yet.
I also started pulling money out of some of my other alternative investments - pulled out all my USDC from Blockfi (concerned about what was happening at other crypto brokers), and stopped auto re-investing in my Groundfloor account as loans were repaid (real-estate related, and assuming the housing market will cool I want to wind that down). I did top off my iBonds for the year a couple of weeks back.
Not trying to perfectly time a bottom or anything, but it seems right here the downside is still more likely than much upside over the next couple of months.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I don’t think we can bottom until the final shoe drops and that’s forward earnings guidance. Don’t think it’s come down nearly enough.
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Alright fellas, I am very bullish on the market right now for a number of reasons. While inflation is still the biggest wild card here I believe the low of 3662 is likely the bottom we will see this year. Every day we hold above that is good. Could we see a new 52 week low this year yes it is possible but I would put the odds around 25%.
Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish. You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages. 19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%. 58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%. Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish. Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020. B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish. It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%. Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.
Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16. This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year. 10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low. This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%. This means stocks are undervalued relative to history. The 95 average is closer to 2%.
For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market. Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions. Presidents have very little effect on the stock market. I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash. Not smart.
Good luck!
Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish. You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages. 19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%. 58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%. Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish. Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020. B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish. It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%. Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.
Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16. This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year. 10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low. This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%. This means stocks are undervalued relative to history. The 95 average is closer to 2%.
For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market. Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions. Presidents have very little effect on the stock market. I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash. Not smart.
Good luck!
Steeler
Footballguy
So when the actual number comes out tomorrow at 8.0 they will say smashed expectations by nearly 10%
Gopher State
Footballguy
Agreed, and the hot inflation report tomorrow will send the market closer to a bottom. Feels like the market needs to give up another 10 percent before we hit bottom.
Sand
Footballguy
Let's see what this looks like after the earnings season that's underway. Rumblings are that it's going to be pretty awful.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
That's why I put a small short in on XLF. May need to sell what I have and buy more tomorrow that expire on 7/22 since several institutions reporting next week as well.
Also put a small UCO order in but didn't trigger. Will revisit that tomorrow as well.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Damn. Amazing that CYDY still has a $300M market cap. HGEN will be about $100M on open. To think that HGEN hit $33 and CYDY was over $9 and both were discussed as going much higher.
Steeler
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Stocks like this are "ALWAYS" going much higher. I'm not saying these are pump and dump securities but I've seen so many over the years, and in the early days of trading, a victim myself of believing the hype. If you are lucky enough to own something with a massive increase in value in a short period of time, take some profits. You don't have to sell it all but get your principle investment and a healthy profit out.
Capella
Footballguy
I never owned Hgen at 30, I came in way after that. That said, 35 was always my hope for it if they got positive results, sales etc. I had arguments on Twitter with people where I said I would take a buyout of 35 a share today when it was at 16 or whatever - they all were saying they would be appalled at that, wanted 85 a share etc, the company wouldn’t even discuss 35 etc.Stocks like this are "ALWAYS" going much higher. I'm not saying these are pump and dump securities but I've seen so many over the years, and in the early days of trading, a victim myself of believing the hype. If you are lucky enough to own something with a massive increase in value in a short period of time, take some profits. You don't have to sell it all but get your principle investment and a healthy profit out.
Greed is bad.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold these for $1.67, a $162 profit.2Squirrels1Nut said:
Bought 5, XLF, $32 in the money puts that expire 7/15 for $1.12.
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Steeler
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
From July 1
H.C. Wainwright analyst Joseph Pantginis reiterated a Buy rating on Humanigen (HGEN – Research Report) today and set a price target of $28.00. The company’s shares closed last Thursday at $1.77, close to its 52-week low of $1.67.
According to TipRanks.com, Pantginis is ranked 0 out of 5 stars with an average return of -29.5% and a 19.4% success rate. Pantginis covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Applied Genetic Technologies, Bioline RX Ltd Sponsored ADR, and Lineage Cell Therapeutics.
Humanigen has an analyst consensus of Moderate Buy, with a price target consensus of $28.00.
somehow that’s going down 
