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Sand said:
I'm in a once in a career 401k rollover right now (so a good chunk in cash while it rolls), so the chances of a major spike in the averages is 100%.  Randomness will always mean I'll get screwed, which I certainly am at the moment.
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Amazing how life works that way isn't it? 

 
culdeus said:
Also explain why do this versus options?  Amazon is heavily traded.  
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For me, I feel more comfortable with leveraged ETFs because I'm not forced to make a decision by a specific date, don't need a margin account or cash balance to cover.  I know there are a some far out options dates to play and a margin or cash balance may not be required.  Leveraged is just easier and gives me enough risk/reward.  

With that said...  no way in hell I'd be betting against Amazon.  Even if we dig ourselves into a recession that is more than high inflation, I'd still be better on Amazon.  

 
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As energy stocks start climbing again back toward their 52 week highs, I'm thinking it's time to put some trailing stops in on a few of them to lock in gains on any pullbacks.  The hard part is the nice dividend that most of them pay (OXY excluded), tough to give that up.  But I'm up between 100%-145% on OXY, XOM, OKE, and PEO, and they are now the top 4 holdings in my Roth account.  So I should probably trim them and rotate some of that into other sectors (Big tech? More LYB and DOW?) that are still beaten down. 

Then again they're the primary reason that while I'm down YTD that account is outperforming the S&P by 9%.  So do I just let winners ride?

 
SFBayDuck said:
As energy stocks start climbing again back toward their 52 week highs, I'm thinking it's time to put some trailing stops in on a few of them to lock in gains on any pullbacks.  The hard part is the nice dividend that most of them pay (OXY excluded), tough to give that up.  But I'm up between 100%-145% on OXY, XOM, OKE, and PEO, and they are now the top 4 holdings in my Roth account.  So I should probably trim them and rotate some of that into other sectors (Big tech? More LYB and DOW?) that are still beaten down. 

Then again they're the primary reason that while I'm down YTD that account is outperforming the S&P by 9%.  So do I just let winners ride?
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I'm not great at this, but I've been trimming mine.  I'm down to probably 35% of what I originally had.  Most of it I did not time the top (sold a lot of XOM in the 80's that I had purchased back at covid lows).  I got burnt enough trying to let all my tech wins run (many of which are red now after being up huge at one point) that I decided to take some profits here so long as we're still in a volatile market with ever shifting fed policy and sentiment.

ETA: Which means energy probably still has another 50% of upside from here, hah.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I'm not great at this, but I've been trimming mine.  I'm down to probably 35% of what I originally had.  Most of it I did not time the top (sold a lot of XOM in the 80's that I had purchased back at covid lows).  I got burnt enough trying to let all my tech wins run (many of which are red now after being up huge at one point) that I decided to take some profits here so long as we're still in a volatile market with ever shifting fed policy and sentiment.

ETA: Which means energy probably still has another 50% of upside from here, hah.
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Good point, I had like a 240% gain on SE at one point when it was in the $360s that I didn't lock in by selling some, and now I'm down almost 50% as it bounces along in the $70s-$80s.

As the one with the minimal dividend and the largest holding in my account I put in an 8% trailing stop loss on OXY today (that would put it at where Fidelity has identified as "support" as of today), would sell about 20% of what I have if that triggers.

 
SFBayDuck said:
As energy stocks start climbing again back toward their 52 week highs, I'm thinking it's time to put some trailing stops in on a few of them to lock in gains on any pullbacks.  The hard part is the nice dividend that most of them pay (OXY excluded), tough to give that up.  But I'm up between 100%-145% on OXY, XOM, OKE, and PEO, and they are now the top 4 holdings in my Roth account.  So I should probably trim them and rotate some of that into other sectors (Big tech? More LYB and DOW?) that are still beaten down. 

Then again they're the primary reason that while I'm down YTD that account is outperforming the S&P by 9%.  So do I just let winners ride?
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I hope you made some loot 🤑

As for the bolded, this crossed my mind the other day. I got all my energy stuff in my poor-man portfolio. I check it every couple days so trailing stops is an excellent idea.

Since my last post, nothing has changed, in my opinion. In fact it occurred to me that even if the current administration said, "Go for it, no restrictions, put a well-head wherever you want and build the Keystone Pipeline." There will be little to no impact. There may be an uptick in US production, but the refining capacity stays the same. Unfortunately, the current administration can't fix that. I'm unsure that the refining capacity problem is fixable. It's a bummer, for all of us.

TL/DR: I'm not selling. Good luck

 
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culdeus said:
If an index fund person odds are Amazon is like 5-10% of your stuff.  We are all bezos. 
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stbugs said:
Yep, 90% of investors and 100% of passive investors own a lot more of Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft than they think.
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Do you think this keeps the price artificially high?  When people are using S&P 500 stocks costs to evaluate how cheap/expensive the market is, shouldn't they be taking into account all the money getting forced into the indexes so PEs should naturally drift higher over time?

 
BassNBrew said:
Do you think this keeps the price artificially high?  When people are using S&P 500 stocks costs to evaluate how cheap/expensive the market is, shouldn't they be taking into account all the money getting forced into the indexes so PEs should naturally drift higher over time?
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This was Michael Burry's point back in 2018 and his reason for his annual "the market is going to collapse like 1929" theory that year.

 
BassNBrew said:
Do you think this keeps the price artificially high?  When people are using S&P 500 stocks costs to evaluate how cheap/expensive the market is, shouldn't they be taking into account all the money getting forced into the indexes so PEs should naturally drift higher over time?
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Yes.  

The bigger consideration for index funds is liquidity.  So they tend to hold heavily traded stocks so they can dump them in a hurry.  This is both a feature and a bug at the same time.  And you know the core mutual funds front run the #### out of the broader index funds.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Do you think this keeps the price artificially high?  When people are using S&P 500 stocks costs to evaluate how cheap/expensive the market is, shouldn't they be taking into account all the money getting forced into the indexes so PEs should naturally drift higher over time?
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Not really. There is a pop sometimes when stocks make it into an index but I seem to recall when Tesla was getting in S&P that it actually would be bad for future returns like the prior to index returns were typically much better than post.

 
stbugs said:
Not really. There is a pop sometimes when stocks make it into an index but I seem to recall when Tesla was getting in S&P that it actually would be bad for future returns like the prior to index returns were typically much better than post.
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Tesla's market cap is up half a trillion dollars since it was announced it would be added to the SP500.  At its peak prior to this year's crash it was up a full trillion dollars.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Tesla's market cap is up half a trillion dollars since it was announced it would be added to the SP500.  At its peak prior to this year's crash it was up a full trillion dollars.
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Tesla closed at $695 the day before it was actually added to the index. Including the recent run up, qthe stock is up 28% since it’s addition to the S&P index 19 months ago. In the prior 19 months, Tesla was up 1595%. As I said above, the article I read said that companies stock performance before addition was better than after.

 
stbugs said:
Tesla closed at $695 the day before it was actually added to the index. Including the recent run up, qthe stock is up 28% since it’s addition to the S&P index 19 months ago. In the prior 19 months, Tesla was up 1595%. As I said above, the article I read said that companies stock performance before addition was better than after.
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It was in the $400's when it was announced it would be added to the S&P.  The day it closed $695 was the day/week the institutions had to buy for their index holdings, not before then.  It topped out in the 1200's at the peak.

It's a misleading stat at best.  Yes percentage wise it was up more before the S&P when it was a much smaller company that blew up in popularity and not a half a trillion dollar mega cap company.  It's an intentionally misleading stat, like saying Apple was up more in the 5 years preceding the release of the iPhone (1500%) than it was in the 5 years after it (300%).

 
FreeBaGeL said:
It was in the $400's when it was announced it would be added to the S&P.  The day it closed $695 was the day/week the institutions had to buy for their index holdings, not before then.  It topped out in the 1200's at the peak.

It's a misleading stat at best.  Yes percentage wise it was up more before the S&P when it was a much smaller company that blew up in popularity and not a half a trillion dollar mega cap company.  It's an intentionally misleading stat, like saying Apple was up more in the 5 years preceding the release of the iPhone (1500%) than it was in the 5 years after it (300%).
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It’s not misleading and I did say when a stock is added to the index. If you take the announcement, not the addition, you are still talking 100% versus 900%. Of course, it’s a smaller company before the index,  that’s the point of what I had read. Companies added to the index perform worse after the addition. I didn’t even bring up Tesla as my data point, since they aren’t a normal stock. I just shared what I had read during their addition.

 
Desert_Power said:
The forum is about to meet someone in a drugstore parking lot perhaps.
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Would have been nice to get an actual update on what happened although I can’t recall which one that was blue potato or the patriot guy. Both seemed to disappear either to an incident or maybe hiding from the results of an incident.

 
Making the switch from mutual funds over to some ETFs and wanted to see what international Vanguard funds some of you guys like as the best investment right now? 

 
stbugs said:
Would have been nice to get an actual update on what happened although I can’t recall which one that was blue potato or the patriot guy. Both seemed to disappear either to an incident or maybe hiding from the results of an incident.
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Blue Onion maybe? My notebook is rusty here.

 
GoBirds said:
Thanks for sharing, what is your weighting breakdown…mostly VXUS or even? 
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VXUS is made up of 75% VEA and 25% VWO.  VEA tracks the EAFE international index and has no emerging market exposure.  VWO is strickly emerging markets.  VXUS is my preferred choice but if you prefer no emerging markets then VEA is good.

 
CCL over $10
Anyone else in?
I have some stock and LEaps. not a ton of money, but enough to be interesting
 
Another big pull back day for the Semis. About ready to pool some funds together for another SOXL buy if this dip continues. The way the charts are looking to me suggest this may be the last great buying opportunity to load up on for the long haul. I get the recent fears from some earnings misses and lowering future guidance, but I wasn't surprised to hear it's mostly supply chain issues, not demand. When demand drops I'll rethink my position.

Any counters, risks I might be blinding myself from? I'm guilty of doing that at times when I'm ridiculously bullish on something.
 
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