Stock Thread (16 Viewers)

[culdeus]

What happened to pop gme and bbby.

 

[SFBayDuck]

What happened to pop gme and bbby.

Something something gamma something something 420 something something diamond hands something something giving it to the man.

 

[Chadstroma]

UWM Reports 55% Jump in Q2 Net Income to $215M as Interest Rates Rise - DBusiness Magazine

United Wholesale Mortgage announced its financial results for Q2 2022, which showed a drop in loan origination volume of nearly $30 billion.

www.dbusiness.com

Rocket income came in at $60 million and that is WITH gouging customers with tons of points, junk fees and high rates.

 

[SFBayDuck]

UWM Reports 55% Jump in Q2 Net Income to $215M as Interest Rates Rise - DBusiness Magazine

United Wholesale Mortgage announced its financial results for Q2 2022, which showed a drop in loan origination volume of nearly $30 billion.

www.dbusiness.com

Rocket income came in at $60 million and that is WITH gouging customers with tons of points, junk fees and high rates.

Your boy Ishbia was on CNBC earlier today saying that since Rocket doesn't do purchases, just re-fi's, they're going to get left behind.

 

[Desert_Power]

UWMC = Good company, bad stonk.

 

[Chadstroma]

UWMC = Good company, bad stonk.

That is fair, for the short term I agree... but I do think it will pay off in the long run once Wall St catches on.

 

[BassNBrew]

UWMC = Good company, bad stonk.

Loaded up at $3.50 so I'm happy. Also have picked up 20 cent in dividend income. UWMC annouced it's 7th straight dime income. PE still around 10 with a 10% dividend.

 

[BassNBrew]

Fulgent take it's quarterly after earning drops. Read the transcript and they are killing it. Usually see a nice run after this quarterly pullback.

 

[BassNBrew]

oh...guess who has a Monkeypox test?

 

[Chadstroma]

UWM Reports 55% Jump in Q2 Net Income to $215M as Interest Rates Rise - DBusiness Magazine

United Wholesale Mortgage announced its financial results for Q2 2022, which showed a drop in loan origination volume of nearly $30 billion.

www.dbusiness.com

Rocket income came in at $60 million and that is WITH gouging customers with tons of points, junk fees and high rates.

Your boy Ishbia was on CNBC earlier today saying that since Rocket doesn't do purchases, just re-fi's, they're going to get left behind.

Rocket sucks... without exaggeration almost every Realtor that I have spoken to that has had more than 5 minutes of being licensed would urge a client to take another offer over a Rocket pre-approval offer. They have been fueled by buying marketing and partnerships. But as the broker channel grows and the most brokers will choose UWM over Rocket and without a robust group of experienced loan officers (pretty much every time you see a Rocket MLO they were waiting tables a month earlier) then all the money they pour into marketing is not as effective. The easy money is gone. The broker channel is growing and continuing to take market share. Big retail lenders like Loandepot (screw their dumb l and D stuff), Fairway, CrossCountry, etc are struggling with margin compression which only exaggerates the differences in what brokers can offer over retail. Rocket will struggle and more than one big retail lender will NOT survive. Rumors are that several are scrambling to find buyers now and pretty much all are laying off people left and right.

 

[Chadstroma]

UWMC = Good company, bad stonk.

Loaded up at $3.50 so I'm happy. Also have picked up 20 cent in dividend income. UWMC annouced it's 7th straight dime income. PE still around 10 with a 10% dividend.

Yea, the dividend is a nice thing to collect while waiting. It isn't sexy but I think it is a winner long term.

UWM Reports 55% Jump in Q2 Net Income to $215M as Interest Rates Rise - DBusiness Magazine

United Wholesale Mortgage announced its financial results for Q2 2022, which showed a drop in loan origination volume of nearly $30 billion.

www.dbusiness.com

Rocket income came in at $60 million and that is WITH gouging customers with tons of points, junk fees and high rates.

Your boy Ishbia was on CNBC earlier today saying that since Rocket doesn't do purchases, just re-fi's, they're going to get left behind.

A better article comparing the two...

UWM posts stronger profits than Rocket in Q2 2022

UWM reported stronger profits than the market leader Rocket Mortgage in the second quarter, and also cut its rival's lead in origination volume.

www.housingwire.com

 

[stinkzmagee]

I’m very happy with UWMC, it’s been one of my best performers if you include the dividend over the last 6 months, as sad as that is.

FLGT had an unspecific lawsuit (one of those firms claiming fraud/damage to investors). Still like that company but down 20% on good volume is quite bad. I was really bullish going into earnings, which weren’t bad but were a little underwhelming, and I regret not selling some covered calls at least. I suppose I’ll be sitting on those shares a while longer.

 

[stbugs]

oh...guess who has a Monkeypox test?

Going to be a longer wait on FLGT due to macro environment and the fact that total revenue is dropping due to CV. Their core testing growth looks great and still adding cash on CV and now monkey pox. I’m just going to sit on it for a while. All the acquisitions they got for free due to Cv testing should start helping out as well.

I’ve got the time and still feel really good about them. Still have some junk to rearrange after the nice run. Damn work got in the way Monday morning so I didn’t sell a few things.

I didn’t even notice the drop the last few days. With cash on hand, their P/S for just core testing (ignoring CV which got them the $1B in the bank), is about 3. Their core testing growth was up this quarter over 100%. That’s absurd. The CV revenue dropping is making the company look bad when that was basically a great call to build up a cash horde and they already use some on those acquisitions to enhance their portfolio. May have to add some more.

 

[stbugs]

Oh and good job TTD.

 

[Alien Fantasy]

What happened to pop gme and bbby.

I kept buying.

 

[Capella]

I laughed on Friday when it was a blowout jobs report and the market tanked. Something something jobs are bad actually. I hate it here.

 

[stbugs]

Looking like a decent day after inflation reports.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Looking like a decent day after inflation reports.

I saw a report on CNBC last week that food and energy inflation were projected to show they were way off the highs. Great news today Mortimer!!

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I laughed on Friday when it was a blowout jobs report and the market tanked. Something something jobs are bad actually. I hate it here.

During GWB administration the spin was high energy prices were good because that meant the economy was running full steam. A weak dollar was also good and preferred.

Not making this political. Out of my circle of friends I'm sure I'm the only one that voted twice for GWB. I thought and still think he's a good man. His honesty about his battle with drugs and alcohol is admirable. Anyhow, the point I'm trying to make, not just to you but in general, is it can be difficult to see through the fog. Stick to what you know to be true, like it's a good thing when more people are working, and you'll be fine.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Bought 50 UCO at $33 because I do believe demand will stay steady and probably increase. Plus Putin isn't going to stop any time soon. :(

Of course this is a short-term trade but think there's opportunity here long term too.

 

[beef]

I laughed on Friday when it was a blowout jobs report and the market tanked. Something something jobs are bad actually. I hate it here.

During GWB administration the spin was high energy prices were good because that meant the economy was running full steam. A weak dollar was also good and preferred.

Not making this political. Out of my circle of friends I'm sure I'm the only one that voted twice for GWB. I thought and still think he's a good man. His honesty about his battle with drugs and alcohol is admirable. Anyhow, the point I'm trying to make, not just to you but in general, is it can be difficult to see through the fog. Stick to what you know to be true, like it's a good thing when more people are working, and you'll be fine.

Not alone, my man. I won't put on a bag and hide from it either. I thought GWB was good guy too and that he always meant for the best just like his father. Voted for him and was an apologist for him for years. Still am in some ways.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'll be in here either complaining that I didn't put enough new money in when prices were low or complaining that the market is stupid and my account is dwindling.

I actually have a good feeling about the next few weeks. I think the big tech companies are going to beat and I think CPI is going to come back lower than expected, the combo of which I think could create a big rally. But I'm stupidly emotional and I like having some cash because at least then if the market tumbles I can say "oh well this is a great opportunity to buy even lower".

Yep, I'm an idiot. Even when I'm right, I don't put nearly enough conviction behind it. Gotta work on that.

 

[stbugs]

I'll be in here either complaining that I didn't put enough new money in when prices were low or complaining that the market is stupid and my account is dwindling.

I actually have a good feeling about the next few weeks. I think the big tech companies are going to beat and I think CPI is going to come back lower than expected, the combo of which I think could create a big rally. But I'm stupidly emotional and I like having some cash because at least then if the market tumbles I can say "oh well this is a great opportunity to buy even lower".

Yep, I'm an idiot. Even when I'm right, I don't put nearly enough conviction behind it. Gotta work on that.

It happens. I don’t have a lot of cash so I can’t complain but damn I really wanted to sell my small shares (not meaningful enough to own) buy SNOW at $110 and just be done with cash and then wake up in 5 years. I just needed a couple months it seems.

 

[culdeus]

I laughed on Friday when it was a blowout jobs report and the market tanked. Something something jobs are bad actually. I hate it here.

Somehow amazon holding alot of inventory and forced into fire sale is worth 2% pop in the market too. Fun.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

Bought 50 UCO at $33 because I do believe demand will stay steady and probably increase. Plus Putin isn't going to stop any time soon. :(

Of course this is a short-term trade but think there's opportunity here long term too.

"Dang" went up immediately. Sold at $35.83.

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I'll be in here either complaining that I didn't put enough new money in when prices were low or complaining that the market is stupid and my account is dwindling.

I actually have a good feeling about the next few weeks. I think the big tech companies are going to beat and I think CPI is going to come back lower than expected, the combo of which I think could create a big rally. But I'm stupidly emotional and I like having some cash because at least then if the market tumbles I can say "oh well this is a great opportunity to buy even lower".

Yep, I'm an idiot. Even when I'm right, I don't put nearly enough conviction behind it. Gotta work on that.

Same, see previous post.

 

[nysfl2]

Another big pull back day for the Semis. About ready to pool some funds together for another SOXL buy if this dip continues. The way the charts are looking to me suggest this may be the last great buying opportunity to load up on for the long haul. I get the recent fears from some earnings misses and lowering future guidance, but I wasn't surprised to hear it's mostly supply chain issues, not demand. When demand drops I'll rethink my position.

Any counters, risks I might be blinding myself from? I'm guilty of doing that at times when I'm ridiculously bullish on something.

Hope you pulled the trigger on this - I grabbed some yesterday and flipped it today for a tidy 15% profit

 

[General Malaise]

BROS reporting today. Added a little in the hopes and expectation that they beat and have a better outlook ahead. I'm just a dunderhead, but every BROS I pass by is hopping, day after day, regardless of the time of day. These are little shacks with two drive-thrus humming. Margins have to be outstanding; it's sugar, caffeine and water selling for over $6 a drink. Overhead can't be bad either.

 

[beef]

Another big pull back day for the Semis. About ready to pool some funds together for another SOXL buy if this dip continues. The way the charts are looking to me suggest this may be the last great buying opportunity to load up on for the long haul. I get the recent fears from some earnings misses and lowering future guidance, but I wasn't surprised to hear it's mostly supply chain issues, not demand. When demand drops I'll rethink my position.

Any counters, risks I might be blinding myself from? I'm guilty of doing that at times when I'm ridiculously bullish on something.

Hope you pulled the trigger on this - I grabbed some yesterday and flipped it today for a tidy 15% profit

Nice, man. I did not. By the time it hit the range I was hoping to buy at, work got busy and I never got to moving funds. It's my 2nd largest holding (BNKU passed it up yesterday) so it's not like I need more since I'm way beyond my full position.

 

[beef]

Disney beats. Thanks Cappy's wife

 

[Capella]

Disney beats. Thanks Cappy's wife

Lol. Hopefully I make enough to cover that June trip.

 

[Capella]

Man Disney+ is a horse. +14M new subscribers.

 

[eoMMan]

Man Disney+ is a horse. +14M new subscribers.

I got Disney+ free this year from having something else (maybe from having Hulu+).
I wonder if me and a bunch of other “non-paying” subscribers contributed to the large number of new subscribers.

 

[Capella]

Man Disney+ is a horse. +14M new subscribers.

I got Disney+ free this year from having something else (maybe from having Hulu+).
I wonder if me and a bunch of other “non-paying” subscribers contributed to the large number of new subscribers.

I might be wrong but I don’t think they ever gave it away for free. I only know of the bundle you can do.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Man Disney+ is a horse. +14M new subscribers.

I got Disney+ free this year from having something else (maybe from having Hulu+).
I wonder if me and a bunch of other “non-paying” subscribers contributed to the large number of new subscribers.

I might be wrong but I don’t think they ever gave it away for free. I only know of the bundle you can do.

I think Verizon users got it free at some point. Not sure if that's still the case or not.

 

[KGB]

BROS reporting today. Added a little in the hopes and expectation that they beat and have a better outlook ahead. I'm just a dunderhead, but every BROS I pass by is hopping, day after day, regardless of the time of day. These are little shacks with two drive-thrus humming. Margins have to be outstanding; it's sugar, caffeine and water selling for over $6 a drink. Overhead can't be bad either.

Agree. That's exactly why I jumped in the ipo. And they are expanding

 

[General Malaise]

BROS reporting today. Added a little in the hopes and expectation that they beat and have a better outlook ahead. I'm just a dunderhead, but every BROS I pass by is hopping, day after day, regardless of the time of day. These are little shacks with two drive-thrus humming. Margins have to be outstanding; it's sugar, caffeine and water selling for over $6 a drink. Overhead can't be bad either.

Agree. That's exactly why I jumped in the ipo. And they are expanding

Bigly. Can't wait until they hook east coast teens with their $7 iced sugar caffeinated drinks.

 

[GoBirds]

I’m not usually a seller but makes me think now may not be a bad time to lighten up some.

 

[stbugs]

Ok. I have no clue what I did wrong but I can’t edit the reply area unless I see the HTML like tags. If I see the regular view with the quotes in boxes I can’t edit and only the paper with the magnifying glass in the top right isn’t grayed out. Bold, Italics and the rest all grayed out. WTF did I do?

Also, looking like another good day.

 

[stbugs]

I’m not usually a seller but makes me think now may not be a bad time to lighten up some.

I’ve been thinking the same thing on my stuff that’s lower confidence that also got hammered so I don’t have a lot of it. I’m certainly not wealthy but a $500 position probably isn’t worth holding longer term. Might as well use the recent run up yo consolidate/add some cash.

Also, still at the point where I’ve got some nice losses to use. Can only use $3k total each year but you can rack some up to cancel future gains on the recovery. That $3k cancellation of income is still a nice 30-40% return.

 

[General Malaise]

BROS running but I have a feeling there's a lot of short covering fueling this.

 

[ChiefD]

BROS running but I have a feeling there's a lot of short covering fueling this.

Yea, I'm really tempted to sell today. Got it on one of the big dips back in May.

 

[stinkzmagee]

Here’s the market dilemma. Wish I would have bought more a month ago, thinking we were going lower. Now I hate to buy here cause I could still see retesting those lows….or lower, or not!

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

ME is having itself a week

 

[Schmeabs]

Alright fellas, I am very bullish on the market right now for a number of reasons. While inflation is still the biggest wild card here I believe the low of 3662 is likely the bottom we will see this year. Every day we hold above that is good. Could we see a new 52 week low this year yes it is possible but I would put the odds around 25%.

Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish. You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages. 19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%. 58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%. Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish. Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020. B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish. It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%. Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.

Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16. This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year. 10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low. This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%. This means stocks are undervalued relative to history. The 95 average is closer to 2%.

For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market. Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions. Presidents have very little effect on the stock market. I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash. Not smart.

Good luck!

S&P 500 up 11% since I posted this a month ago. I hope some of you took advantage. I had to create a new ID for the new board as I forgot my old password.

Market is much more fairly valued now and with inflation numbers coming down I still like stocks.

 

[Desert_Power]

I'm just glad we've recovered enough that I can once again argue with my buddy about how overvalued I think BROS is

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

ME is having itself a week

Now it's giving today's gains back. What a roller coaster.

 

[beef]

I’m not usually a seller but makes me think now may not be a bad time to lighten up some.

I’ve been thinking the same thing on my stuff that’s lower confidence that also got hammered so I don’t have a lot of it. I’m certainly not wealthy but a $500 position probably isn’t worth holding longer term. Might as well use the recent run up yo consolidate/add some cash.

Also, still at the point where I’ve got some nice losses to use. Can only use $3k total each year but you can rack some up to cancel future gains on the recovery. That $3k cancellation of income is still a nice 30-40% return.

I have nothing left to move and already went all-in, boom-bust, back in June/early July when gas prices started trending back down. I did so much cutting/closing out of lower confidence stuff and putting in areas I feel will rebound faster pretty much during this entire drop. Didn't always time those moves the best and definitely hard to swallow a few of those losses. Back in Jan/Feb I had 15-20 holdings in my mad money account. Now I have 3. All 3x leveraged ETFs (BNKU, SOXL, TQQQ). I really should make a trimming plan now.

 

[beef]

Alright fellas, I am very bullish on the market right now for a number of reasons. While inflation is still the biggest wild card here I believe the low of 3662 is likely the bottom we will see this year. Every day we hold above that is good. Could we see a new 52 week low this year yes it is possible but I would put the odds around 25%.

Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish. You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages. 19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%. 58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%. Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish. Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020. B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish. It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%. Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.

Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16. This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year. 10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low. This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%. This means stocks are undervalued relative to history. The 95 average is closer to 2%.

For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market. Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions. Presidents have very little effect on the stock market. I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash. Not smart.

Good luck!

S&P 500 up 11% since I posted this a month ago. I hope some of you took advantage. I had to create a new ID for the new board as I forgot my old password.

Market is much more fairly valued now and with inflation numbers coming down I still like stocks.

Hell yeah, I pay a lot of attention to your posts! In fact, I had just made some big bullish moves and your post gave me a huge boost of confidence and reassurance that I wasn't completely insane for going all-out greedy while a lot of the talking heads on TV were in total fear mode.

edit: I'm still putting cash aside each check and will be ready to buy more if this is just a bear rally and lows get tested again.

 

[Desert_Power]

Alright fellas, I am very bullish on the market right now for a number of reasons. While inflation is still the biggest wild card here I believe the low of 3662 is likely the bottom we will see this year. Every day we hold above that is good. Could we see a new 52 week low this year yes it is possible but I would put the odds around 25%.

Contrarian indicators are overwhelmingly bullish. You can see that on many that post here who are very bearish despite having the worst 1st half performance in ages. 19% of invrstors are now bullish, where historically they are 38%. 58% of people are bearish, historically bears are 30%. Media is very bearish which is contrarily bullish. Cash on the sidelines by the Fund Manager Survey recently hit a 21 year high of 6.1%, cash was around 5.9% around the bottoms in 2002, 2009, 2011, 2018, and 2020. B of A Michael Hartnett has a bull/bear indicator that is currently at 0.0, very bullish. It has happened 6 times in the past 22 years, with the average performance over the next year of 35%. Last time it happened was 3/23/20 the exact bottom and one year later 3/23/21 the S&P was up 59%.

Projected 2022 earnings on S&P 500 gives us a PE of 16. This is a very big decrease in PE (20%) from last year. 10 year is just below 3% which is still historically low. This gives us an equity risk premium of 3.14%, where the 30 year average is 2.60%. This means stocks are undervalued relative to history. The 95 average is closer to 2%.

For retirement accounts just keep contributing monthly and don't get cute trying to time the market. Also, don't let your political leanings sway your investment decisions. Presidents have very little effect on the stock market. I have many clients now who are right leaning and hate Biden and want to sit all in cash. Not smart.

Good luck!

S&P 500 up 11% since I posted this a month ago. I hope some of you took advantage. I had to create a new ID for the new board as I forgot my old password.

Market is much more fairly valued now and with inflation numbers coming down I still like stocks.

Hell yeah, I pay a lot of attention to your posts! In fact, I had just made some big bullish moves and your post gave me a huge boost of confidence and reassurance that I wasn't completely insane for going all-out greedy while a lot of the talking heads on TV were in total fear mode.

edit: I'm still putting cash aside each check and will be ready to buy more if this is just a bear rally and lows get tested again.

Yeah. I never do much with leverage or levered ETFs. Just keep buying when there is so much fear out there. I did pause a bit after my large purchases in mid June until we built back up to over $50k in cash.