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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
UWMC made me positive for the day 
who woulda thunk it. still well below my basis, but i did dca down a bit a few weeks ago and the dividend is still good for next quarter so in it for the long haul on this one. RKT at its height was in the high 20s, so hoping in a year or two this one takes off to those levels.
who woulda thunk it. still well below my basis, but i did dca down a bit a few weeks ago and the dividend is still good for next quarter so in it for the long haul on this one. RKT at its height was in the high 20s, so hoping in a year or two this one takes off to those levels.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Question for the class:
So, like a TON of stocks (I guess mostly tech types) have been crushed by like 95% the past year or two, in some cases even the big names have been cut in half from their highs.
Question is, how is it possible that this entire board didn't see that coming? Valuations we're ungodly stupid, but people either kept buying or didn't sell nearly enough.
I'm obviously not trying to cast blame. Hell, I'm a total stock idiot. Just a question. Simple as momentum and greed? FOMO??
What was happening at the time that led people to believe valuations we're sustainable? Heck, what has been cut off the total worth of stocks over that time, like 20 trillion????
So, like a TON of stocks (I guess mostly tech types) have been crushed by like 95% the past year or two, in some cases even the big names have been cut in half from their highs.
Question is, how is it possible that this entire board didn't see that coming? Valuations we're ungodly stupid, but people either kept buying or didn't sell nearly enough.
I'm obviously not trying to cast blame. Hell, I'm a total stock idiot. Just a question. Simple as momentum and greed? FOMO??
What was happening at the time that led people to believe valuations we're sustainable? Heck, what has been cut off the total worth of stocks over that time, like 20 trillion????
KGB
Footballguy
I think most here are investors and not traders
Most people, myself included, did not foresee the Fed raising interest rates as aggressively as they have. Higher interest rates has greater negative effect on growth stocks.
Sand
Footballguy
The stock market decline has been pretty pedestrian. The bond market decline has been the worst ever on record. Those records go back to the late 1700s. I'm tracking right with my 70/30 mix, but I never anticipated, I'll admit, the worst bond market in 250 years.
Todem
Footballguy
That I did anticipate. What no one anticipated was the speed at which the Fed raised and the speed of the bond market crash. However it is why I ran clear of 95% of my fixed income allocation and put that to cash….of course averaging back into equities in March and June and finally in September has not given immediate gratification. But the bond market tumble was a long time coming with this zero interest rate environment we had been in for 13 some odd years. And now? Spreads are extremely attractive and we will be going back into the fixed income part of our allocation with open arms come year end when we rebalance.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
FOMO for me.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.
The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?
Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.
The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?
Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
FLGT down double digits heading into earnings.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Was thinking the same, but tetering on that bottom is nerve-racking, that chart is fugly. Cali will give them one more on the chin tomorrow, but that has to be already baked into the stock by now.
The 20% drop in new accounts was a shellacking. From 2 million (estimated) to 1.6 (actual) is a super no bueno. Is it safe to assume that's because they aren't "gorilla" marketing anymore?
What I don't like is that it seems they tried to cloak the negative with, oh, but we are doing better at "getting closer" to making money (estimates). Well yeah, you're not spending like you were, including pulling your budget on Cali passing Prop 27, knowing it was doomed. Of which I don't blame them one bit, those Indian Casinos/Corporations are a powerful bunch. They've blitzed the airwaves in Cali for 6 months and it worked, ****ers.
So it seems that just because Donkey Kong is spending less on those two things, they are trying to then say, but look over here instead, we're finally moving forward on the being profitable road, and sooner! If that's the case, ugh.
Would love to hear some takes on this stock right now, as I see there are a lot on here who follow it with clearly bulls AND bears.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
I should have been clear that I'm looking at it as a short term trade, not a long term investment. I picked some up on Friday and am up about 5% through today.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Glad I wasn’t in $HUDI today.
Down $164.16 to close at $15.84
Down $164.16 to close at $15.84
Holy Cow. $33 in after hours. I haven't looked at it in months--figured it was in the 50s. Time to look at it closely tomorrow.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
About $30 of that price is just cash and equivalents on hand.
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
FLGT - Add it to the list of things I thought I was buying on a discount…50% ago.
I am not sure what to do with this one. On one hand they’ve got about a much cash and equivalents as their market cap. And their core business has been steadily gaining.
On the other hand they keep losing board members, COVID testing revenue is now basically $0, they look to be projecting a negative EPS in Q4, and they just spent $100 MM to buy the CEOs other pharmaceutical type company which means higher cash burn is coming, and that whole situation also just smells funny. I’ve made some bad decisions but this one I always had confidence in. I’m not so sure about that now and this one really stings.
I am not sure what to do with this one. On one hand they’ve got about a much cash and equivalents as their market cap. And their core business has been steadily gaining.
On the other hand they keep losing board members, COVID testing revenue is now basically $0, they look to be projecting a negative EPS in Q4, and they just spent $100 MM to buy the CEOs other pharmaceutical type company which means higher cash burn is coming, and that whole situation also just smells funny. I’ve made some bad decisions but this one I always had confidence in. I’m not so sure about that now and this one really stings.
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I'm looking at the January 2024 in-the-money calls. The options volume is so low and the spreads are high so they might prove to be difficult to purchase at a good price. But a $25 strike call for January 2024 may be trading about $1200 or thereabouts today. I'd buy one or two of those if the market makers will sell them to me. That's a cheap way to get some leverage for 14 months.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I did this in my head, but I get a P/E of about 0.28 if you back out the cash. The market is pricing this company for failure. Since my 100 shares is at $58.72, I certainly hope not. Thinking about buying more with the rest of my cash.
beef
Footballguy
Agreed. I'm 100% out and no plans to ever get back in.
beef
Footballguy
Must be because of Binance deal to buy it? Still seems wrong to lock withdrawals.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I dumped mine off a little bit ago to buy more tech.
General Malaise
Footballguy
bitcoin wait?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I don’t know how people do it. The market seems corrupt and scammy but crypto is a whole other level.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I dabbled and got away from it quickly. Like a few narcotics; I wanted to know what it was all about and thought way better of it after a taste.
Without the exchanges, the utility drops like a rock, but when major exchanges can have their “money market” coins drop 60%-90% in seconds and stop withdrawals, you can’t use them. FTX was supposedly a big stable one that was rescuing Voyager. That free money was worthwhile.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Kinda what I was wondering. What’s the utility without easy access.
It’s crazy. Once it went down with the rest of the tech stocks, I figured it needs to get out from the COVID numbers so you could just see core revenue (up 110% by the way). Not sure I like the Pharma inbred purchase. I liked their prior acquisitions/partnerships in their same testing arena. That said, they are profitable, the market cap is basically their cash on hand and their core business is growing fast.
I think I’m going to be adding more DOCN first. Growing well, beat bottom and top last night but it’s cloud so it’s getting whacked. I think like everything else there’s short term pain but in a few years, it’ll be worth a lot more. I’ll let it settle a bit and get rid of some junk like GBTC.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
What utility do the exchanges provide? The exchanges are fake crypto, anyway.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
SI getting pummeled on some combination of crypto and their earnings.
Capella
Footballguy
See for a causal like me I would never set up my own wallet and all that. Like speaking Greek. I had 10 eth coins in coinbase but when voyager went under I sold them and closed up shop. Whole thing is a house of cards.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah, I get it. That's where I used to be as well. And it wasn't until I really dug into the wallet stuff that I understood why people like crypto so much. Buying crypto on the exchanges is fun, but it's just speculating on what are essentially stocks. It's not really crypto.
It wasn't until I really started using crypto that it made sense to me that this is the way money SHOULD work, and just how slow/expensive our current money is, and how little control we really have over it. In reality modern currencies essentially ARE crypto, and banks are exchanges. Banks are just as susceptible to all this stuff as exchanges, they're just insured by the US government. Crazy to think about, they're designed in a way that they're bound to fail, except that we spend our US tax dollars to insure our US dollars to create enough confidence in the institutions that hold and control "our" money.
It's kind of nuts that we don't really have any way to digitally store our digital US dollars without giving them to someone else who then gets to create the rules around how, when, where, and how much of our own money we're allowed to access.
Of course, all the digital wallet stuff was awful to learn, and there are lots of ways to screw up with real consequences. That's a massive barrier to entry, and probably the reason it will never catch on. Which is too bad, because it's WAY better than the way we do it now.
It doesn't even have to be bitcoin or ethereum or anything. Even if it's just the government making its currency truly digital such that we can control our own money the same way we can our own crypto, that would be cool too.
Sort of like a bank. I’m pretty sure some offered credit cards. Not quite the same yet but if they blow up this easy then it can’t even get to something like a bank where you can use a debit card or credit card to pay for real things and it just deducts crypto.
Just came here to post this. I’m holding. But my philosophy needs to change, from single names to index funds or ETFs. I’m just not very good at this.
massraider
Footballguy
So FTX and Binance have been at odds for a bit, Binance triggered the turbulence by selling 530 mill of FTX coins, triggering a run, then bailed them out because they couldn't cover the withdrawals, because, what a surprise, they were investing their clients money, and didn't have the cash.
It's kinda an interesting story, the main guy from Binance is Zhao Changpeng, but it goes by CZ (nicknames are always reassuring when discussing your nest egg), and he's not to be confused with Do Kwon, the co-founder of Terra ($40 billion collapse) who is in hiding and sought by Interpol.
It's all very up and up.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So FTX and Binance have been at odds for a bit, Binance triggered the turbulence by selling 530 mill of FTX coins, triggering a run, then bailed them out because they couldn't cover the withdrawals, because, what a surprise, they were investing their clients money, and didn't have the cash.
It's kinda an interesting story, the main guy from Binance is Zhao Changpeng, but it goes by CZ (nicknames are always reassuring when discussing your nest egg), and he's not to be confused with Do Kwon, the co-founder of Terra ($40 billion collapse) who is in hiding and sought by Interpol.
It's all very up and up.
I'm not sure we'll ever know the details. CZ said they started selling FTX coins because they were pissed about some lobbying that FTX was doing "behind their back".
It's not clear that FTX was irresponsibly investing all the money and didn't have the cash. They claim they didn't, and they had enough to cover the entirety of client assets even if everyone withdrew everything, but it was just that it was slow to create the liquidity for that. They could have been lying. Though to their credit withdrawals weren't closed, they were just slow and in more limited max amounts per transaction than usual.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Nothing is clear, but I'd be surprised if it they weren't involved with rehypothecation of client funds.
So FTX and Binance have been at odds for a bit, Binance triggered the turbulence by selling 530 mill of FTX coins, triggering a run, then bailed them out because they couldn't cover the withdrawals, because, what a surprise, they were investing their clients money, and didn't have the cash.
It's kinda an interesting story, the main guy from Binance is Zhao Changpeng, but it goes by CZ (nicknames are always reassuring when discussing your nest egg), and he's not to be confused with Do Kwon, the co-founder of Terra ($40 billion collapse) who is in hiding and sought by Interpol.
It's all very up and up.
I'm not sure we'll ever know the details. CZ said they started selling FTX coins because they were pissed about some lobbying that FTX was doing "behind their back".
It's not clear that FTX was irresponsibly investing all the money and didn't have the cash. They claim they didn't, and they had enough to cover the entirety of client assets even if everyone withdrew everything, but it was just that it was slow to create the liquidity for that. They could have been lying. Though to their credit withdrawals weren't closed, they were just slow and in more limited max amounts per transaction than usual.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Amen brother. Holding everything as well, but wish I listened to bogleheads when I first took over our finances. Luckily not a huge amount of our assets but still a very nice SUVs worth.
beef
Footballguy
Yep, this is pretty much me too. I used PayPal, a little bit with Robinhood and then had a Coin Base and then Coin Pro account. Not sure I ever really figured out Coin Pro or liked that platform, so no way I'm doing a wallet and try that. I'm just not interested in cryptos anymore. I think there are a lot of us that aren't which makes me wonder how long (if ever?) until another big BTC/ETH run.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
BROS reports today. Picked up a few more shares this week, banking on a positive quarter.
Capella
Footballguy
I’ll ride with you on this. They report today?
