fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Intel lol. We knew you would suck but we thought you’d really suck and you totally redeemed yourself. Buy, buy, buy.
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Stock Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I have a group of 9K plus which I have spent a lot of time and energy in building aimed at credit and mortgage stuff. It is one of the things that I feel like I have seen people dropping off or spending less time than a year ago or so and then my personal feed as well.It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I have a group of 9K plus which I have spent a lot of time and energy in building aimed at credit and mortgage stuff. It is one of the things that I feel like I have seen people dropping off or spending less time than a year ago or so and then my personal feed as well.It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
Yeah. It's just interesting. With the decline of message boards and the politicization of a lot of other social media (horning in on a lot of revenue Facebook made in the last ~6 years), there is actual opportunity in their core social media business. Zuckerberg is more interested in bringing legs to his avatars in the Metaverse though.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I'll probably add some Amazon tomorrow. They ain't going anywhere and this seems like a good time to buy.
Capella
Footballguy
Averaged all my accounts down, but I’m a psycho
McBokonon
Footballguy
I guess this is what gives me pause. I’m not going to pretend to have really studied them hard but I wonder if they’re burning money to gain a share of the market that will never really produce sufficient investable income. Are they scalable?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Facebook could still be growing, IMO but they just operationally make bad and more bad decisions. Plus, for a tech company that is so dominant you would expect them to have smoother interaction. FB is so clunky when you are doing things it is maddening.I have a group of 9K plus which I have spent a lot of time and energy in building aimed at credit and mortgage stuff. It is one of the things that I feel like I have seen people dropping off or spending less time than a year ago or so and then my personal feed as well.It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
Yeah. It's just interesting. With the decline of message boards and the politicization of a lot of other social media (horning in on a lot of revenue Facebook made in the last ~6 years), there is actual opportunity in their core social media business. Zuckerberg is more interested in bringing legs to his avatars in the Metaverse though.
Capella
Footballguy
Man this is such an underrated part of that website. I get why people hate the company, I do too, but every day it is a virtual memory book. Sometimes I post stuff of my kid and I that i know nobody cares about but a year from now I’ll see it and laugh. Today I saw some funny non-important picture from 2019 and it made me laugh. It’s a time machine.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
How often do click on ads or buy stuff from there?
Sand
Footballguy
Strong dollar effect?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
They are knocking out competition right now. To a point, I am all for it as most of those who have folded were crappy lenders or bad for the channel but some good lenders are struggling right now too. UWM has the capacity and it using it. It is well positioned for the future. I have no intention on selling any stock though it will lag other options for sure. There are many other sexier stocks out there, this one will need patience but the dividend in the meantime can afford you being patient.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Cue the Don Draper carrousel clip.
Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Uhhhh well most of my ads are from fanatics and I have a crippling amount of Tampa bay sports stuff so maybe ask somebody else.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I take video of all my sons football plays (every snap he is in) and all his swim meets. Soccer less so because.... I mean... 99% of it is just running up and down the field (not a soccer fan) and for basketball I am coaching so.... yeah, I am not going to video while on the bench. My daughter some of her vball and basketball games (I am not allowed to coach the girls per my wife and daughter... apparently I am intimidating). All of that.... vacations? All those pics and video. Something one of the kids say that I find funny... I will post it. For 95% of it, I know that the only other people looking at it all is my Mom, my Aunts and my sister.... for most everyone else it is prob overload for them. And I don't care. I post it for me.
I had a memory pop up the other day of a year with my son doing the Butterfly at swim lessons. Nothing hugely interesting to post. But it was so cool to see that and be reminded how far he has come in a year with his Butterfly stroke.
I take advantage of the free storage like a crazy person and I am sure my 'friends' connected on there think I am. lol
Definitely had to have an effect. USD is up 5-6% on the EURO in Q3 and Amazon missed revenue by around 0.4%.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I get a lot of adds from Fanatics as well. I also buy a lot of stuff from Fanatics
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I actually wrote on there when we had our kid, hey this feed is for me and me only if you don’t like all these pics you can mute or unfriend. Lol
Capella
Footballguy
They make it so easy. Damn.I get a lot of adds from Fanatics as well. I also buy a lot of stuff from Fanatics
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Plus you can usually stack with credit card offers for around 15% back. Now Facebook is advertising Jaylen Waddle mini-helmets from there. It heard me and knows what I want lolThey make it so easy. Damn.I get a lot of adds from Fanatics as well. I also buy a lot of stuff from Fanatics
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So Amazon is about where is was when Covid was introduced into our vocabularies.
Todem please advise. Todem......please advise
Todem please advise. Todem......please advise
Capella
Footballguy
I bought a jersey the other day and got 50 bucks off it and 12 in cash back. Basically got it half off. Sheesh.Plus you can usually stack with credit card offers for around 15% back. Now Facebook is advertising Jaylen Waddle mini-helmets from there. It heard me and knows what I want lolThey make it so easy. Damn.I get a lot of adds from Fanatics as well. I also buy a lot of stuff from Fanatics
Capella
Footballguy
I’m not todem of course but I am guessing this is flashing large buy signals for him.
Todem
Footballguy
Oh yeah…
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well every time one of these big stocks has a poor earnings and goes down a lot they seem to go down another 5-10% within a couple days before leveling out
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I have funds in my Roth from a 401k rollover I wanted to get in the market, and today I bought a position in DVN (6% yield, I think it has upside and it has been on my watch list for awhile), a position in META, and a half position in AMZN. Thinking of adding F (nice dividend and I just saw my first Lightning F150 this week - consumers and fleets are going to buy the hell out of that thing) and LLY (already on a tear but that weight loss drug seems like it could be a monster).
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
I’m an owner and think it’s pretty undervalued here, but I do have to say their operating expenses are astounding, and they plan to grow headcount while most others are cutting costs. Couple that with the stories you hear of boatloads 20 something’s making $250,000 + there to not accomplish a whole lot does give me concern. Their planned expenses next year could possibly put them at negative EPS in 2023…which seems crazy for a company that historically just prints $billions.Like I said the disconnect is astounding.Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
I think the market likes that they have a plan to cut expenses.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Looked this up.
Shades of how he was all the way back when Wachovia failed a bit after having their leadership on his show. He was distraught they would come on and lie to his face about the health of the company.
Cramer plays the buffoon and makes a lot of money for it. However, so few people in the financial (or any) media actually take ownership of their mistakes. Like when he went onto the buzzsaw of The Daily Show when Rick Santelli chickened out, I feel for him. I don't think it's an act as much as he is likely bipolar showing the manic side to the cameras twice a day.
I used the Groups to sell my childhood collection of GI Joes, Star Wars and Masters of the Universe. Saved me at least $300 in fees on Ebay.It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
Now do their expenses.Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.
ETA: "Same time period" being since IPO.
I know I'm beating a dead horse in here, but the argument that something is cheap merely because it used to trade higher isn't very compelling at all. For starters, this is a very different company now than it was way back then, but more generally, you could make a very compelling case that many of these names never should have traded where they did. You can make an even more compelling case that the macro environment is substantially worse now than it was then, so even if anything close to those prices may have been justified in the past they no longer are.
Finally, when did 3X over ~10 years (more like ~4X from where it settled after the overpriced IPO) become terrible? It really seems like people don't realize just how unusually great the post financial crisis period had been for equities. Like once in a lifetime kind of great.
This doesn't mean that any particular stock or the market in general isn't going to go back to the moon, but I don't think most people fully appreciate this "golden era" that we just experienced. If you pull up the charts and cover up the parabolic peaks, I think most would be very happy with where we are. I'd certainly sign up right now for a similar return over the next decade, even after this massive re-pricing.
Todem
Footballguy
He should have been shot for going on national television in 2008 endorsing buying Bears Stearns two weeks before they vaporized. I have zero sympathy for this guy. There are people who follow him in lock step and probably were ruined financially.
Todem
Footballguy
You will probably see a similar return over the next 20 years.Now do their expenses.Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.
ETA: "Same time period" being since IPO.
I know I'm beating a dead horse in here, but the argument that something is cheap merely because it used to trade higher isn't very compelling at all. For starters, this is a very different company now than it was way back then, but more generally, you could make a very compelling case that many of these names never should have traded where they did. You can make an even more compelling case that the macro environment is substantially worse now than it was then, so even if anything close to those prices may have been justified in the past they no longer are.
Finally, when did 3X over ~10 years (more like ~4X from where it settled after the overpriced IPO) become terrible? It really seems like people don't realize just how unusually great the post financial crisis period had been for equities. Like once in a lifetime kind of great.
This doesn't mean that any particular stock or the market in general isn't going to go back to the moon, but I don't think most people fully appreciate this "golden era" that we just experienced. If you pull up the charts and cover up the parabolic peaks, I think most would be very happy with where we are. I'd certainly sign up right now for a similar return over the next decade, even after this massive re-pricing.
1994-2007 was also a fantastic run. As good as this one in fact.
Bull markets end like it did this year and then they start again like this will….most likely heading into 2024.
Buy high quality, cash flow positive and good dividend paying companies sprinkled in with some good large/mega cap growth and fixed income is becoming highly attractive again.
It’s all cyclical.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
But are the younger people using it that way? Are they as involved as the Boomer/GenX folks like us? I don't think that they are. So I don't think they are replenishing their customer base. And the pivot to Meta may end up working but their older user base probably isn't very interested in that stuff and it's still years away. So even if they are great at "Meta" in ten years, it will likely be with a depleted user base that they will need to build back up based on Meta and not the picture/video time machine.
Tough sell for me.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Did go and add to my AMZN and MDT positions though. Go stonks!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Now do their expenses.Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..
And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.
ETA: "Same time period" being since IPO.
I know I'm beating a dead horse in here, but the argument that something is cheap merely because it used to trade higher isn't very compelling at all. For starters, this is a very different company now than it was way back then, but more generally, you could make a very compelling case that many of these names never should have traded where they did. You can make an even more compelling case that the macro environment is substantially worse now than it was then, so even if anything close to those prices may have been justified in the past they no longer are.
Finally, when did 3X over ~10 years (more like ~4X from where it settled after the overpriced IPO) become terrible? It really seems like people don't realize just how unusually great the post financial crisis period had been for equities. Like once in a lifetime kind of great.
This doesn't mean that any particular stock or the market in general isn't going to go back to the moon, but I don't think most people fully appreciate this "golden era" that we just experienced. If you pull up the charts and cover up the parabolic peaks, I think most would be very happy with where we are. I'd certainly sign up right now for a similar return over the next decade, even after this massive re-pricing.
Their expenses really only took off in the last couple of quarters with the metaverse investments. EPS has skyrocketed even faster than revenue up until the last couple quarters. I'm not too worried about that. Either the Metaverse stuff will pay off and then, hey, great. Or it won't and they'll abandon it (like Google does with some huge investment every couple quarters) and go back to printing money the old fashioned way.
As to whether 3x over 10 years is a lot or not. In a vacuum? Sure. For a company that went from a recent IPO that people doubted could properly monetize their product to the 9th most profitable company in the world over that stretch? It's really not that much.
AMZN even after its recent hit over that same stretch has increased revenue by 8x and the stock price is up 1000%. Meta increased rev by 27x and stock price is up 300% after the latest drubbing. EPS of Meta went from negative all the way up to $3.9/share a few quarters ago. Back down now since the metaverse spending but again, from a fledgling IPO with hope to one of the top 10 most profitable companies in the world for that 300% gain.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FB monthly active users have grown every single quarter in their history except for one (and that one was a meager 200k decrease after the covid boom), so new users are coming from somewhere.
I would speculate that as people get older and start a family they care less about using Snapchat to send out booty calls that are automatically deleted in 24 hours and more about sharing family stuff, furthering their career through groups of people with similar professions/goals, selling stuff on the marketplace, etc. But that's just speculation I don't really know.
I use FB groups a ton for my businesses. And those groups are constantly growing. And those are exactly the kind of people that have the money and desire to spend on ad clicks.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
You certainly may be right. Maybe it's just designed to be an "older" person site and people will transition as they age. I probably dislike the company too much to rationally evaluate them.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Facebook is starting to remind of that oldies or classic rock station in whatever town you live in. When your dad was listening to it you thought "god this music is so old and booooring" and then all of a sudden you listen to it one day and realize they are playing nirvana and stone temple pilots. And you look in the mirror and go "well.....sheeeeeit."
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Not saying you are wrong.... but how many of those are fake profiles? There are a TON of these. Again, it goes to the massive problem that they have in terms of business of spam. Bots or off shore or whatever it is they have substantial numbers on FB
Chadstroma
Footballguy
You aren't that young
Capella
Footballguy
I’m not that old either.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I can vouch that my teenage boys are certainly using Instagram.
