Stock Thread (49 Viewers)

[ConstruxBoy]

So Meta's P/E ratio is going to be around 8 when things open up tomorrow?

I feel like the narrative has gotten screwed up on a lot of these big tech growth stocks due to the covid outliers. It's being priced in P/E like it's a 50 year old dividend company. Rebalanced from a growth company because revenue isn't increasing right now.

But how much of that is just that revenue blew up so artificially during covid (when everyone was stuck inside browsing Facebook) and things have to level out a bit?

Their last pre-covid Q3 earnings they were doing $17B revenue. Now at $27B the stock will amost be 50% lower than it was when they were doing $17B revenue. Because they're done "growing" or because things have to normalize a bit after super fast artifical growth?

It's such a weird dynamic in the market right now. If a stock grew 5% every quarter for 5 years, then one quarter they grew 10000000% and the next quarter retracted 5% from that 10000000% growth, should the stock price be lower because it was their first quarter with negative growth, or higher because their revenue is up 99999995% over the last two quarters? It seems like right now, the market is saying the former.

There is a massive disconnect with the reality of this company (massive cashflow, huge user base and oh yeah they make 31B a quarter in revenue) and sentiment. It will balance out again and over time those who think they are dead will be proven quite wrong.

Massively oversold more than any of the mega tech names.

I'm sure you are right, I just dislike the company and think their pivot is dumb. But I certainly own a lot of it in S&P500 funds so I'll profit if I'm wrong.

 

[Todem]

So Meta's P/E ratio is going to be around 8 when things open up tomorrow?

I feel like the narrative has gotten screwed up on a lot of these big tech growth stocks due to the covid outliers. It's being priced in P/E like it's a 50 year old dividend company. Rebalanced from a growth company because revenue isn't increasing right now.

But how much of that is just that revenue blew up so artificially during covid (when everyone was stuck inside browsing Facebook) and things have to level out a bit?

Their last pre-covid Q3 earnings they were doing $17B revenue. Now at $27B the stock will amost be 50% lower than it was when they were doing $17B revenue. Because they're done "growing" or because things have to normalize a bit after super fast artifical growth?

It's such a weird dynamic in the market right now. If a stock grew 5% every quarter for 5 years, then one quarter they grew 10000000% and the next quarter retracted 5% from that 10000000% growth, should the stock price be lower because it was their first quarter with negative growth, or higher because their revenue is up 99999995% over the last two quarters? It seems like right now, the market is saying the former.

There is a massive disconnect with the reality of this company (massive cashflow, huge user base and oh yeah they make 31B a quarter in revenue) and sentiment. It will balance out again and over time those who think they are dead will be proven quite wrong.

Massively oversold more than any of the mega tech names.

I'm sure you are right, I just dislike the company and think their pivot is dumb. But I certainly own a lot of it in S&P500 funds so I'll profit if I'm wrong.

Oh yeah they are hated no doubt. And there will be a lot of year end tax loss selling tomorrow and throwing in the towel for some. It’s ugly. I just keep writing way out of the money calls on it to create a Dividend while we wait for the eventual turnaround long term.

 

[stinkzmagee]

@Todem Can you give me an example of the calls you write (strike and date compared to your cost basis)? Like many I’ve got a ton of underwater positions and I feel like I’m either writing calls near my cost basis (way above current price) and I have to go way out in time to make anything, or I write closer to the money calls and risk getting called away and taking an overall loss.

 

[stbugs]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.

 

[Capella]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.

Wow

 

[humpback]

@Todem Can you give me an example of the calls you write (strike and date compared to your cost basis)? Like many I’ve got a ton of underwater positions and I feel like I’m either writing calls near my cost basis (way above current price) and I have to go way out in time to make anything, or I write closer to the money calls and risk getting called away and taking an overall loss.

Yeah, those are the only choices when you're way underwater.

Mentally it may be difficult, but the market doesn't care what your cost basis is so you have to try and ignore it and focus on what you think is going to happen in the future. Sometimes the best you can do is try and cut your losses.

 

[Todem]

@Todem Can you give me an example of the calls you write (strike and date compared to your cost basis)? Like many I’ve got a ton of underwater positions and I feel like I’m either writing calls near my cost basis (way above current price) and I have to go way out in time to make anything, or I write closer to the money calls and risk getting called away and taking an overall loss.

175 is my average CB. Now understand I made a huge amount of money in this stock as I have owned it since the 30’s when it went public and sold a large portion in late 2020 and then bought back in on the downside at the 175 level

I had been writing between 15-20% out of the money from it’s current price the day I wrote them going 3 months out on average.

If you are ok with taking let’s say a 20% loss then write them accordingly. If you are way underwater you can’t write at or very near your cost basis.

So the stock is being taken to the outhouse today and has been for some time now. The old guard can’t digest the amount of money they are spending to build out the Metaverse.

So either you believe in it long term (5-10 years) or you don’t.

Listening to Kramer right now is a perfect example of a guy who is in the entertainment business. He is an absolute tool. He has no balls. He can’t stay buckled in….he is panicking. He is admitting defeat. Based on what? Their cash burn to build out what they feel will be the next big thing in social media. He refuses to see the forest thru the trees. He is my ultimate buy signal. And my ultimate sell signal.

Now I may be wrong….it won’t be the first time. But I a firm believer that 10 years from now people will look back on when they bailed on this company at $100 a share and kick themselves in the ***.

I happen to believe the platform they are building out will be “the” place to be in the forth coming Metaverse. I also think RBLX will also profit greatly in that arena on a gaming level. It’s hard to concieve and I get it…and like I said…I could be wrong on all of it.

These are highly volatile, high beta stocks now. You really have to have a long term time horizon to stomach these swings.

And of course…don’t dump all your money into them. It should be a small slice of your overall portfolio.

It is freaking ugly….today may be the final capitulation in META. Or not.

I am staying long.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.

And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.

ETA: "Same time period" being since IPO.

 

[Todem]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

Facebook is only a 3x now from its IPO. The value today goes back to October 2015.

And revenue is up 27x over that same time period.

Like I said the disconnect is astounding.

 

[ChiefD]

Bought some META for the first time. Up .13% already!

 

[kevzilla]

Pssst...AMZN. You don't have to blow out the number, bro, just meet it. You'll be up 10% tomorrow.

 

[McBokonon]

$SHOP is having a good day. $GLBE is also up, possibly in sympathy since $SHOP owns a lot of them. Also, I realized that Newcastle United uses $GLOB for their international sales and I have a pretty major soccer kit addiction. So, you’re welcome fellow $GLBE longs.

 

[Sand]

Bought some META for the first time. Up .13% already!

I went and bought some MSFT today after it hit a double bottom today. We'll see who made the better choice of the two Todem mentioned a bit above.

 

[Capella]

That dope Cramer sobbing on tv this morning has to mean the bottom is here, or close to it.

 

[McBokonon]

I’ve never owned Amazon outside of mutual funds in my 401K, but I kind of feel like gambling on their earnings today. I have 20 minutes to talk myself out of it.

 

[Capella]

I’ve never owned Amazon outside of mutual funds in my 401K, but I kind of feel like gambling on their earnings today. I have 20 minutes to talk myself out of it.

As somebody with a nice stake in it, I don’t feel good about it but don’t let me detract you if you want to gamble.

Shopify having a great earnings gave me more hope than yesterday, however.

 

[McBokonon]

I’ve never owned Amazon outside of mutual funds in my 401K, but I kind of feel like gambling on their earnings today. I have 20 minutes to talk myself out of it.

As somebody with a nice stake in it, I don’t feel good about it but don’t let me detract you if you want to gamble.

Shopify having a great earnings gave me more hope than yesterday, however.

I do notice you AMZN longs tend to be sad more often than not after earnings, but all stocks have been sad for a while and it seems like they’re getting preemptively hit today. If the gamble is wrong, it’s still AMZN. I can’t imagine I’d be mad about it in 3 years.

 

[Capella]

I’ve never owned Amazon outside of mutual funds in my 401K, but I kind of feel like gambling on their earnings today. I have 20 minutes to talk myself out of it.

As somebody with a nice stake in it, I don’t feel good about it but don’t let me detract you if you want to gamble.

Shopify having a great earnings gave me more hope than yesterday, however.

I do notice you AMZN longs tend to be sad more often than not after earnings, but all stocks have been sad for a while and it seems like they’re getting preemptively hit today. If the gamble is wrong, it’s still AMZN. I can’t imagine I’d be mad about it in 3 years.

Lol it’s been a hard year.

But no, I do not think you will regret it long-term.

 

[McBokonon]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

 

[McBokonon]

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

And…………..it’s gone, it’s all gone

 

[beef]

META and AMZN acting like 10x leveraged ETFs.

 

[Desert_Power]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

Now it's 2/5 of a full position.

 

[McBokonon]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

And…………..it’s gone, it’s all gone

On the plus side I get to immediately average down.

 

[Capella]

I’ve never owned Amazon outside of mutual funds in my 401K, but I kind of feel like gambling on their earnings today. I have 20 minutes to talk myself out of it.

As somebody with a nice stake in it, I don’t feel good about it but don’t let me detract you if you want to gamble.

Shopify having a great earnings gave me more hope than yesterday, however.

I do notice you AMZN longs tend to be sad more often than not after earnings, but all stocks have been sad for a while and it seems like they’re getting preemptively hit today. If the gamble is wrong, it’s still AMZN. I can’t imagine I’d be mad about it in 3 years.

Lol it’s been a hard year.

It’s been a really hard year.

 

[McBokonon]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

Now it's 2/5 of a full position.

Your face is 2/5 of a full position.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

And…………..it’s gone, it’s all gone

On the plus side I get to immediately average down.

Yeah, you’ll be fine. Meta I’m not nearly as confident about.

 

[beef]

Well, half of America probably spent a good hour or so on Facebook today and I saw 4 Amazon trucks drive by my very rural house. Drop all you want. You're not going away.

 

[General Malaise]

Oh yeah, well my biggest position was down $23.29 today before announcing an earnings beat and raised guidance. STONKS!!!111



It's been a really hard year.

 

[Todem]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

And…………..it’s gone, it’s all gone

On the plus side I get to immediately average down.

Yeah, you’ll be fine. Meta I’m not nearly as confident about.

Oh thee of little faith lol

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m going in. Half a full position. Let’s dance.

And…………..it’s gone, it’s all gone

On the plus side I get to immediately average down.

Yeah, you’ll be fine. Meta I’m not nearly as confident about.

Oh thee of little faith lol

None lol. I’ll trade it but it’s not a long term holding for me.

 

[SFBayDuck]

And right back to the March '20 lows for AMZN.

 

[beef]

Think I'm going to dive deep in the Q's. Not the kool-aid drinking whack job Q's.

 

[fruity pebbles]

International sales smoked Amazon

 

[Desert_Power]

Think I'm going to dive deep in the Q's. Not the kool-aid drinking whack job Q's.

:reported:

 

[beef]

So who made the $1 Trading Places bet on Zuck and Bezos?

 

[McBokonon]

Apple in a couple of minutes. I can only assume they’ll announce they’re going out of business.

 

[beef]

Think I'm going to dive deep in the Q's. Not the kool-aid drinking whack job Q's.

:reported:

dammit, i just got back too!

 

[Chadstroma]

It looks like UWM surpassed Rocket as the largest mortgage lender in the country. Stock price still sucks but.... SUCK IT ROCKET!!!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Apple good report

 

[beef]

For all the talk about how computer sales are down, Mac revs really crushed it.

• EPS $1.29 vs. $1.27 est.
• Revenue. $90.15 billion vs. $88.90 billion estimated, up 8.1% year-over-year
• iPhone revenue: $42.63 billion vs. $43.21 billion estimated, up 9.67% year-over-year
• Mac revenue: $11.51 billion vs. $9.36 billion estimated, up 25.39% year-over-year
• iPad revenue: $7.17 billion vs. $7.94 billion estimated, down 13.06% year-over-year
• Other Products revenue: $9.65 billion vs. $9.17 billion estimated, up 9.85% year-over-year
• Services revenue: $19.19 billion vs. $20.10 billion estimated, up 4.98% year-over-year
• Gross margin: 42.3% vs. 42.1% estimated

 

[McBokonon]

It looks like UWM surpassed Rocket as the largest mortgage lender in the country. Stock price still sucks but.... SUCK IT ROCKET!!!

I’ve been bearish on both of those so I know I’m biased. Why did they surpass Rocket? Are they offering more incentives or something? I can’t imagine customer service trumps rate/fees but I could definitely be wrong.

 

[Chadstroma]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Intel's report seems bad, but the stock is up (I haven't read the results...just the headlines).

 

[McBokonon]

Meanwhile, $INTC is up almost 7% AH on the back of their guidance cut.

It’s been a hard year.

 

[Chadstroma]

It looks like UWM surpassed Rocket as the largest mortgage lender in the country. Stock price still sucks but.... SUCK IT ROCKET!!!

I’ve been bearish on both of those so I know I’m biased. Why did they surpass Rocket? Are they offering more incentives or something? I can’t imagine customer service trumps rate/fees but I could definitely be wrong.

A few reasons...

The broker channel is growing by leaps and bounds. Retail lenders are getting hammered by their companies right now with even more bloated pricing. Not too long ago, pretty much everyone doing loans had a full pipeline of loans. Brokers had the price advantage but with rates low all around it was not as pronounced. Retail lenders are are struggling, shrinking and having problems. So, as a MLO, if you don't have much in the way of a pipeline and can be a broker where you can offer better rates to clients, make more money per loan and don't have any reason to stick around... smart MLO's that haven't believed all the lies of their layers of management above them are leaving to the broker channel. UWM is by far the preferred lenders for brokers. Also, UWM not long ago made an ultimatum to brokers to either work with UWM or Rocket... they won't allow both. Most chose UWM.

Now is a purchase business time for lending. There are not many refinances going around these days. Rocket has a horrible reputation among real estate agents. On top of that, most people are still not comfortable with doing a call center type of thing when they are doing a purchase. Refinance... maybe... purchase, not as much. Their MLO's are often very green and desk jockies.

And UWM made some aggressive moves pricing wise over the last Q plus and took advantage of their size, capacity and tech to gain market share.

 

[Desert_Power]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.

It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Intel lol. We knew you would suck but we thought you’d really suck and you totally redeemed yourself. Buy, buy, buy.

 

[Chadstroma]

Facebook down almost 75% from its highs..

It really does feel like it.... it seems people are leaving it and those who do not spend less time on it from what I can tell. There are two things that keep me from abandoning it.... first, it is basically free storage space. I download so many pictures and video on there, it is ridiculous. I don't care if other people look at it or not- it is for me because I can go back for years and pull pics of the kids or video. The second part is for business but that is getting more and more frustrating. They spend so much effort and time handing out punishment for the potential to possibly hurt someone's feelings but I have tons of spam reviews on my business page that I have reported and they don't so squat about it (as one example of how it is frustrating). I got a time out in the past for saying that I would ".... I would seek legal advice if that was me. You can mess with a lot of things but if you mess with my kids, I will burn you down." and the other most recent was in response to Dave Ramsey crap advice again "He makes me want to push him in the face with such bad advice and what makes it even worse is people actually think he knows what he is talking about". It is as if FB has no clue how the English language works.

It’s funny. Never really been a fan of Facebook, but using the Groups feature more than most other social media these days.

I have a group of 9K plus which I have spent a lot of time and energy in building aimed at credit and mortgage stuff. It is one of the things that I feel like I have seen people dropping off or spending less time than a year ago or so and then my personal feed as well.

 

[stbugs]

Well **** me. Wish they reported on Monday instead of after all the bad news. Already dinged multiple days. Guess it’s ramen when I retire at 85!