Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

[skol asylum]

I know my timing is probably exactly wrong but I couldn't stand watching the market go up anymore and wishing for a drop so I could re-enter in my 401k after going almost all cash right at the end of September and missing out on the October run up. Went 100% stock funds which will now drop another 10 percent or so making me wish I had waited before getting back in. Should have never made that move end of Sept. Buy high sell low.

You do know there are a variety of percentages between 0-100

There are? Huh.

If you get anxiety at completely out of the market or completely in, how about trying a % where you can stick it out and not really care whether the market goes up or down? Just a thought.

Technically I wasn't completely out. 20% stocks, 30% bonds, and 50% cash but yes I get your point.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I know my timing is probably exactly wrong but I couldn't stand watching the market go up anymore and wishing for a drop so I could re-enter in my 401k after going almost all cash right at the end of September and missing out on the October run up. Went 100% stock funds which will now drop another 10 percent or so making me wish I had waited before getting back in. Should have never made that move end of Sept. Buy high sell low.

You do know there are a variety of percentages between 0-100

There are? Huh.

If you get anxiety at completely out of the market or completely in, how about trying a % where you can stick it out and not really care whether the market goes up or down? Just a thought.

Technically I wasn't completely out. 20% stocks, 30% bonds, and 50% cash but yes I get your point.

Gotcha. I mean there’s no way I’d sleep soundly being 100% in stocks and with bond yields at 4.5% I don’t have to. Can pretty easily catch roughly 70% of the markets upside while limiting yourself to 50% of the downside. Cheers.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Oof what happened? Weeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Todem]

Oof what happened? Weeeeeeeeeeee

Good ol fashioned fed talk.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Oof what happened? Weeeeeeeeeeee

Good ol fashioned fed talk.

Looked and we were about even, came back and we fell through the floor

 

[Phil Elliott]

Tupperware warning it may go out of business?
May be jockeying with creditors to restructure debt but it just warned it may not be able to continue under the current debt.
Don't forget to burp.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Good day to buy

 

[beef]

Tupperware warning it may go out of business?
May be jockeying with creditors to restructure debt but it just warned it may not be able to continue under the current debt.
Don't forget to burp.

All because they don't want to throw in a fancy model ship with the 24 piece set.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Nasdaq almost back to its lows of a couple weeks ago

 

[McBokonon]

$QCOM lowers guidance, down 6.5% - I’m long, could add tomorrow. Maybe even now. $ROKU (not long) apparently reported they’ve all been arrested for murder. $ETSY doing ok for me, though!

 

[eoMMan]

This Powell fellow really enjoys raining in the stock market, huh?
It’s amazing how much power he has (in dollars). He could have easily said “we’re pausing after this hike but will review the data”.

 

[ghostguy123]

Amazon below precovid prices seems weird to me. Then again I don't know jack

 

[fruity pebbles]

This Powell fellow really enjoys raining in the stock market, huh?
It’s amazing how much power he has (in dollars). He could have easily said “we’re pausing after this hike but will review the data”.

He doesn’t want the market to rally. That counteracts what he’s trying to do yet it continues to try and do it’s own thing. Like he’s playing whack a mole.

 

[ChiefD]

CYDY was up .96% today.

 

[SFBayDuck]

CYDY was up .96% today.

Never heard of it.

 

[Sand]

Powell certainly is making up for his awful mistakes perviously by pounding the rest of us now.

 

[Todem]

Tupperware warning it may go out of business?
May be jockeying with creditors to restructure debt but it just warned it may not be able to continue under the current debt.
Don't forget to burp.

My wife used to be a sales consultant and loved it. We have so much amazing tupperware and they also had chef quality cookware and cuttery…top of the line stuff we got 70% below retail because of her status.

They could be a private equity target.

Just horrendous management. But amazing products.

 

[Todem]

This Powell fellow really enjoys raining in the stock market, huh?
It’s amazing how much power he has (in dollars). He could have easily said “we’re pausing after this hike but will review the data”.

The Fed would lose all credibility if they make that statement. He will say it when it truly is going to happen.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

FTNT has held up relatively well YTD but is getting wrecked AH for soft revenue report.

 

[fruity pebbles]

ROKU, ARKKs third largest holding at nearly 7%. Oh Cathie……..

 

[stbugs]

ROKU, ARKKs third largest holding at nearly 7%. Oh Cathie……..

Man, I should have sold all of mine. Sold half at get this, $470, and kept the other half. Ride it out now, but man I should have been a smarter seller. Did the same with Zoom, MDB, Fastly and others. Got a good chunk sold at nice amounts but decided to keep 20-50%. Just rip the bandaid off next time. Definitely didn’t build enough cash and damn AMZN hurts.

I am shocked to see Amazon at just below summer 2018 highs. Not quite META, down 50%+ from 2018 highs. Google still up from 2018 summer highs around 40%. Amazon’s revenue is $500B and it’s 2018 revenue was $230B. Google and Facebook about double as well. Apple is more than triple 2018 highs, but is only up about 50% in revenue from 2018. Apple has held up really well.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

ROKU, ARKKs third largest holding at nearly 7%. Oh Cathie……..

Man, I should have sold all of mine. Sold half at get this, $470, and kept the other half. Ride it out now, but man I should have been a smarter seller. Did the same with Zoom, MDB, Fastly and others. Got a good chunk sold at nice amounts but decided to keep 20-50%. Just rip the bandaid off next time. Definitely didn’t build enough cash and damn AMZN hurts.

I am shocked to see Amazon at just below summer 2018 highs. Not quite META, down 50%+ from 2018 highs. Google still up from 2018 summer highs around 40%. Amazon’s revenue is $500B and it’s 2018 revenue was $230B. Google and Facebook about double as well. Apple is more than triple 2018 highs, but is only up about 50% in revenue from 2018. Apple has held up really well.

With most of the other things that have held up well that just meant on their first bad earnings report or first sign of bad news they went allllll the way down to make up the entire difference. We'll see with Apple though, there is definitely a certain mystique around that brand. Not just the stock but the products. People are loyal as heck to it.

 

[eoMMan]

This Powell fellow really enjoys raining in the stock market, huh?
It’s amazing how much power he has (in dollars). He could have easily said “we’re pausing after this hike but will review the data”.

The Fed would lose all credibility if they make that statement. He will say it when it truly is going to happen.

Like when he said this inflation was “transitory” in 2021?

I’m not saying he should lie but he could definitely choose his words better. Nothing wrong with saying we’ll continue to review the data and make moves if we deem necessary instead of “OMG, you guys, rates are going up up up kaboom style!!!!!!! #yolo!!!!”

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This Powell fellow really enjoys raining in the stock market, huh?
It’s amazing how much power he has (in dollars). He could have easily said “we’re pausing after this hike but will review the data”.

The Fed would lose all credibility if they make that statement. He will say it when it truly is going to happen.

Like when he said this inflation was “transitory” in 2021?

I’m not saying he should lie but he could definitely choose his words better. Nothing wrong with saying we’ll continue to review the data and make moves if we deem necessary instead of “OMG, you guys, rates are going up up up kaboom style!!!!!!! #yolo!!!!”

I think he truly believed that when he said it in 2021. And really nothing that's happened so far necessarily means that was wrong (inflation is still likely due to temporary supply chain issues and energy issues). It's just that those things are going to take a lot longer to work themselves out than originally believed.

But the bigger difference between now and then is that, right now, the whole point is to slow things down. So it doesn't make sense to say something that's going to speed the economy back up when their goal is to slow it down. The fed needs the economy to suffer more from here, so they don't really have a reason to say something that is going to ease the suffering.

 

[humpback]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

 

[Sand]

Powell certainly is making up for his awful mistakes perviously by pounding the rest of us now.

Saw this afternoon that today was the worst 90 minutes after a fed announcement ever.

 

[beef]

Guess I missed what Powell said that was so unexpected to make me go from +3% today to down 5%

^ from Sept 21.

And he did it again (although I didn't miss what he said). So, 4 straight fed rate hike meetings where markets dropped 3-5% afterwards? Seems like we've been doing this since June.

 

[humpback]

Guess I missed what Powell said that was so unexpected to make me go from +3% today to down 5%

^ from Sept 21.

And he did it again (although I didn't miss what he said). So, 4 straight fed rate hike meetings where markets dropped 3-5% afterwards? Seems like we've been doing this since June.

Yeah, this isn't rocket surgery. The market keeps hoping for and pricing in softening rhetoric out of the Fed, and every time it tanks when he makes it crystal clear that he's staying hawkish. The conversation is around whether the market should "believe" the Fed- if/when it finally does, we'll probably finally stop tanking after these things, although we'll also probably already be at new lows.

From Sept 22.

 

[beef]

Guess I missed what Powell said that was so unexpected to make me go from +3% today to down 5%

^ from Sept 21.

And he did it again (although I didn't miss what he said). So, 4 straight fed rate hike meetings where markets dropped 3-5% afterwards? Seems like we've been doing this since June.

Yeah, this isn't rocket surgery. The market keeps hoping for and pricing in softening rhetoric out of the Fed, and every time it tanks when he makes it crystal clear that he's staying hawkish. The conversation is around whether the market should "believe" the Fed- if/when it finally does, we'll probably finally stop tanking after these things, although we'll also probably already be at new lows.

From Sept 22.

Yep, bump you again next month.

 

[stbugs]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

I still more than tripled my money on Roku but damn, only sold half at $470. Crazy it’s this far down. When we get back out of the recession, Roku will very likely pop again but I’d be feeling much better if my average was $470 instead of now $260. Good but not awesome!

 

[Bogart]

DWAC postponed their stockholder meeting again, for the sixth time, to Nov. 22. Guessing they are still really short of the 65% vote needed to extend the deadline for their merger with TMTG for a year. I imagine this will live between $16-18/share until some type of decision is made.

 

[beef]

DWAC postponed their stockholder meeting again, for the sixth time, to Nov. 22. Guessing they are still really short of the 65% vote needed to extend the deadline for their merger with TMTG for a year. I imagine this will live between $16-18/share until some type of decision is made.

Even if they extend the deadline, don't they still have to merge within 24 months of going public (September 2021)? Or is that the deadline being voted on? Hard to keep track of these SPAC rules, or lack there of....

 

[Bogart]

DWAC postponed their stockholder meeting again, for the sixth time, to Nov. 22. Guessing they are still really short of the 65% vote needed to extend the deadline for their merger with TMTG for a year. I imagine this will live between $16-18/share until some type of decision is made.

Even if they extend the deadline, don't they still have to merge within 24 months of going public (September 2021)? Or is that the deadline being voted on? Hard to keep track of these SPAC rules, or lack there of....

I think you are right that it's 24 months. Sept 2023 was the target with the first vote a couple of months ago. They were trying to complete the merger in 12 months, which everyone said was very aggressive. There are three month extensions that they can buy for $3million each and I think they have one left after this current one ends in December. Every extension adds a dime to the $10 liquidation price if they can't complete the merger.

 

[Sand]

We have been saying we will have a strong rally here in 4th quarter. I still stand by that. It started last month and most likely will kick into high gear after the mid-terms. Today will be a Fed Speak day where the market will try in vain to decipher Powells press conference. If they get any whiff of a slowing down of the rate hikes......buckle up. If they don’t we may see a retrace of 3-5% to the downside.....then after the mid terms we buckle up in anticipation of a Red Wave in the congress and a 50/50 shot of either the Red Wave getting the senate back or the Democrats hanging on......either outcome the market will like IMO. SO short term tailwinds.....that have really not much to do with the macro environment. Who cares....what matters is, if this all lines up like I am anticipating, this will give long term investors a chance to tax harvest some losers at lesser losses, add to more defensive positions and also reposition into more fixed income again (we exited fixed income at the end of 2021 for the most part) as part of a more balanced portfolio heading into what will be a highly sideways 2023 for most of the year. My focus will be on dividend’s and overall portfolio yield.

The rally starts now! Wait... now! No wait... ok now!



I just keep looking at the markets dumping hard and this made me laugh. (BTW, just joshing here - I really hope you're right. What a brutal year.) I have been static for quite a while here, so just riding this thing out and plowing money in.

 

[Todem]

Market had it’s Powell tantrum yesterday.

Buckle up for that year end rally coming.

 

[Todem]

We have been saying we will have a strong rally here in 4th quarter. I still stand by that. It started last month and most likely will kick into high gear after the mid-terms. Today will be a Fed Speak day where the market will try in vain to decipher Powells press conference. If they get any whiff of a slowing down of the rate hikes......buckle up. If they don’t we may see a retrace of 3-5% to the downside.....then after the mid terms we buckle up in anticipation of a Red Wave in the congress and a 50/50 shot of either the Red Wave getting the senate back or the Democrats hanging on......either outcome the market will like IMO. SO short term tailwinds.....that have really not much to do with the macro environment. Who cares....what matters is, if this all lines up like I am anticipating, this will give long term investors a chance to tax harvest some losers at lesser losses, add to more defensive positions and also reposition into more fixed income again (we exited fixed income at the end of 2021 for the most part) as part of a more balanced portfolio heading into what will be a highly sideways 2023 for most of the year. My focus will be on dividend’s and overall portfolio yield.

The rally starts now! Wait... now! No wait... ok now!



I just keep looking at the markets dumping hard and this made me laugh. (BTW, just joshing here - I really hope you're right. What a brutal year.) I have been static for quite a while here, so just riding this thing out and plowing money in.

Brutal is right!! Worst since 2008. But it will have legs going into year end.

Again it will be the opportunity to reassess your portfolio, tax harvest, rebalance and reallocate if appropriate.

2023 is gonna be another long year unfortunately. But 2024 and beyond I am very bullish…..as always.

That’s why maxing out the 401K is a no brainer. It’s just a DCA machine.

 

[Todem]

Apples market cap is now greater than:

Google
Amazon
Meta

Combined.

Yeah……that’s kinda ridiculous now.

 

[humpback]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

I still more than tripled my money on Roku but damn, only sold half at $470. Crazy it’s this far down. When we get back out of the recession, Roku will very likely pop again but I’d be feeling much better if my average was $470 instead of now $260. Good but not awesome!

It's a very large move for sure, but I'd argue that the 3000%+ gain it had in it's first ~3 1/2 years of trading was crazier.

 

[Sand]

That’s why maxing out the 401K is a bo brainer. It’s just a DCA machine.

Yep - my 401k + catch up, HSA, my wife's 457. Piling in.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Oh boy TWLO

 

[beef]

Oh boy TWLO

52-Wk Range
42.76 - 317.00

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Oh boy TWLO

52-Wk Range
42.76 - 317.00

I'm down 83% from when I originally thougth I was "buying low".

 

[stbugs]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

I still more than tripled my money on Roku but damn, only sold half at $470. Crazy it’s this far down. When we get back out of the recession, Roku will very likely pop again but I’d be feeling much better if my average was $470 instead of now $260. Good but not awesome!

It's a very large move for sure, but I'd argue that the 3000%+ gain it had in it's first ~3 1/2 years of trading was crazier.

Maybe. Their revenue is up 5-600% since IPO and now the price is up only 100%. It definitely went up too high in anticipation of future growth (why I sold), but based on the Yahoo historical data it was only up 2000%. It’s down more now than it was up before.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Jobs report hit a sweet spot that made the market happy today.

 

[fantasy stud]

Jobs report hit a sweet spot that made the market happy today.

Is that happened ? Just figured after 4 bad days, we were due for a little turnaround

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Draftkings down 25%. Think I'll add a few.

 

[GoBirds]

Apples market cap is now greater than:

Google
Amazon
Meta

Combined.

Yeah……that’s kinda ridiculous now.

More so that Apple is too high or the others need to rebound?

 

[Todem]

Apples market cap is now greater than:

Google
Amazon
Meta

Combined.

Yeah……that’s kinda ridiculous now.

More so that Apple is too high or the others need to rebound?

Clearly the others will rebound strongly over the long term. I am also trimming some Apple year end.

 

[humpback]

Roku now down what, 92% from the highs? Yeesh.

I still more than tripled my money on Roku but damn, only sold half at $470. Crazy it’s this far down. When we get back out of the recession, Roku will very likely pop again but I’d be feeling much better if my average was $470 instead of now $260. Good but not awesome!

It's a very large move for sure, but I'd argue that the 3000%+ gain it had in it's first ~3 1/2 years of trading was crazier.

Maybe. Their revenue is up 5-600% since IPO and now the price is up only 100%. It definitely went up too high in anticipation of future growth (why I sold), but based on the Yahoo historical data it was only up 2000%. It’s down more now than it was up before.

I'll echo the comments I made earlier about FB/Meta- you can't just say "revenue is up x since then so the price increase is justified". For starters, revenue is only one of several measures, but most importantly, a lot of that growth was already priced in. No one is paying super high valuations for their past or current numbers, it's in anticipation of the growth to come in the future.

As far as Roku specifically, I don't think you're looking at the correct numbers. It IPO'd at $14 with a valuation of $1.3B. Just using stock price puts it at well over a triple right now after getting crushed, and at it's peak it was a 30-something bagger. That doesn't tell the whole story though because they've issued new shares so looking at market cap it went from $1.3B to a peak of over $60B to the current ~$6.63B.

Yes, the moves have been insane, but clearly it isn't down more now than it was up before. It's still up pretty significantly since the IPO a little over 5 years ago.