Holding. I like the cars.
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Stock Thread (38 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
More than two years later but the S appears to be hitting the fan on these guys today.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Interesting data for UWMC.
Broker market share has now his 26.6, so more than 1 out of every 4 mortgages is currently being done through brokers instead of banks, CU's and direct lenders like Rocket, Fairway, Gauranteed Rate, etc. That is a 15 year high and growing.
As I outlined previously, housing values have ignored interest rates and continued to climb by 6.6% to an all time national high. This is good news for a lender (it shows solid health in the RE market) and positions UWM to do very well in the upcoming refinance boom when rates drop. That is when I would expect the stock price to increase. As I have said before, until then, I will collect my 5+% dividend and wait it out.
Broker market share has now his 26.6, so more than 1 out of every 4 mortgages is currently being done through brokers instead of banks, CU's and direct lenders like Rocket, Fairway, Gauranteed Rate, etc. That is a 15 year high and growing.
As I outlined previously, housing values have ignored interest rates and continued to climb by 6.6% to an all time national high. This is good news for a lender (it shows solid health in the RE market) and positions UWM to do very well in the upcoming refinance boom when rates drop. That is when I would expect the stock price to increase. As I have said before, until then, I will collect my 5+% dividend and wait it out.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Been away for a couple of days and missed the NKE discussion.
I grabbed a little when I saw the huge dump and was thinking of grabbing more. Seems like everyone hates it even at these prices but the talk around it being dead and out of touch kind of reminds me of META and NFLX when they were dumping last year. Obviously it's not tech so maybe a totally different ballgame but it just seems like it's in that same position now where any shred of good news will send it rebounding hard for a few days.
I grabbed a little when I saw the huge dump and was thinking of grabbing more. Seems like everyone hates it even at these prices but the talk around it being dead and out of touch kind of reminds me of META and NFLX when they were dumping last year. Obviously it's not tech so maybe a totally different ballgame but it just seems like it's in that same position now where any shred of good news will send it rebounding hard for a few days.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
When I was a kid growing up through a young adult, it was basically Nike or nothing. I mean, pretty much every kid in 90's HS wore Nike unless they were part of some sub culture wearing boots or something.IMHO, yes. Without remembering the exact numbers, I think the gist was that their revenues would be negative instead of slightly positive.I haven't paid attention to NKE in years. Was their report really bad enough to arrant 15-20% down?
It may be early, but this feels like Cisco or Intel, they’ll still be significant in terms of revenue and market but they are losing all their growth to these new shoe companies. My middle son and youngest sons wore Nikes since they were born and now in HS and college, both of their last sneaker purchases were Hokas. Wife has been wearing those for years now to work out.
For them to have negative growth when all these upstarts are growing like weeds just means they are losing market share faster than they can grow.
Now, chances are for kids that they are wearing Crocs. For sports, my son has no special affinity to Nike though he will get Nike but just as happy with Addidas or Under Armor for basketball shoes or cleats. With basketball, it is way more about what they look like and maybe which athlete they are named after.
As a brand, Nike is still relevant but it is no longer king like it has been for decades. It will still make money but I think it will continue to have market share eaten away from it.
General Malaise
Footballguy
They have no moat around their business.
They sell shoes fat people can't wear.
They got in bed with Fanatics, easily one of the worst businesses I've ever had the misfortune of dealing with.
They quit their golf line entirely.
They treat their employees like dirt. They don't pay very well. They are run by an ineffectual, power hungry loser who is the furthest thing from Phil Knight.
They thought selling shoes without partnership retailers was a winning combination.
This stock will be $50 again before it ever sees $100. Treat people like trash and karma follows.
Nike was "THE" brand in the 90's and it was all because of Jordan.When I was a kid growing up through a young adult, it was basically Nike or nothing. I mean, pretty much every kid in 90's HS wore Nike unless they were part of some sub culture wearing boots or something.IMHO, yes. Without remembering the exact numbers, I think the gist was that their revenues would be negative instead of slightly positive.I haven't paid attention to NKE in years. Was their report really bad enough to arrant 15-20% down?
It may be early, but this feels like Cisco or Intel, they’ll still be significant in terms of revenue and market but they are losing all their growth to these new shoe companies. My middle son and youngest sons wore Nikes since they were born and now in HS and college, both of their last sneaker purchases were Hokas. Wife has been wearing those for years now to work out.
For them to have negative growth when all these upstarts are growing like weeds just means they are losing market share faster than they can grow.
Now, chances are for kids that they are wearing Crocs. For sports, my son has no special affinity to Nike though he will get Nike but just as happy with Addidas or Under Armor for basketball shoes or cleats. With basketball, it is way more about what they look like and maybe which athlete they are named after.
As a brand, Nike is still relevant but it is no longer king like it has been for decades. It will still make money but I think it will continue to have market share eaten away from it.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
So.... you are saying you are not a fan
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Absolutely. And I think that carried over for a couple of decades until fairly recently. The sneaker collecting craze, launched by Jordans sort of cemented it after Jordan's power was waned in retirement.Nike was "THE" brand in the 90's and it was all because of Jordan.When I was a kid growing up through a young adult, it was basically Nike or nothing. I mean, pretty much every kid in 90's HS wore Nike unless they were part of some sub culture wearing boots or something.IMHO, yes. Without remembering the exact numbers, I think the gist was that their revenues would be negative instead of slightly positive.I haven't paid attention to NKE in years. Was their report really bad enough to arrant 15-20% down?
It may be early, but this feels like Cisco or Intel, they’ll still be significant in terms of revenue and market but they are losing all their growth to these new shoe companies. My middle son and youngest sons wore Nikes since they were born and now in HS and college, both of their last sneaker purchases were Hokas. Wife has been wearing those for years now to work out.
For them to have negative growth when all these upstarts are growing like weeds just means they are losing market share faster than they can grow.
Now, chances are for kids that they are wearing Crocs. For sports, my son has no special affinity to Nike though he will get Nike but just as happy with Addidas or Under Armor for basketball shoes or cleats. With basketball, it is way more about what they look like and maybe which athlete they are named after.
As a brand, Nike is still relevant but it is no longer king like it has been for decades. It will still make money but I think it will continue to have market share eaten away from it.
And 1 was the first to show you could crack the Nike ceiling though it eventually failed miserably. Under Armor came around, what, a decade ago? And though ups and downs really opened the door.
Like I said, if there is one shoe kids wear... it is crocs. I think the current generation see Nike, Under Armor and Addidas (if not more) as interchangeable. They are not nearly as brand loyal was kids were in the 90's
Capella
Footballguy
The problem with Nike imo is they still make shoes the public demands but they’ll make like, only 20 of them, put them on some stupid website where the bots immediately buy them up and then the bot army resells them for 1200 dollars. Creates consumer fatigue and people simply are not settling for their other offerings. They need to cut the crap with fake demand and kneecap these bot venders and issue the appropriate amount of shoes so that everybody has a chance. Infuriating business model.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Not anymore. I used to be. Was a stock holder for years and years but just don't see any reason to believe in it anymore.
General Malaise
Footballguy
10 years ago I could walk into Kohl's or Fred Meyer and buy Nike shoes on sale for $45-50. I didn't need cool Jordans or the latest greatest, I just needed shoes I could wear for 6 months and beat to hell on long walks. Then they disappear from shelves and I had to wear New Balance due to plantar fasciitis.
But after seeing friends get laid off without any real notification or knowledge - just blindsided? Man, go screw, Nike.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This kind of thing is definitely the rule, not the exception, at most companies.
Todem
Footballguy
Phenomenal brand...trading at low multiples. Good value play here for a bounce back.
Easy 20-30% trade inside 18 months.
The monster growth is long over....but if you are looking for trade.....there is one here.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Is it the rule though really? I mean, certainly not uncommon but the rule? That seems to me to be on the far side of that opposite.
Also, maybe it is different industry to industry but from what I have seen over the last few decades, with only a couple of exceptions, in the banking/financial industries layoffs are communicated and given time and severance packages with job placement programs etc. The amount and range of support varies greatly but it is rare for any "today is your last day, pack up and leave" in mass.
The only exceptions I can think of are when the company fails and leadership kept it under wraps until the very last second because if they disclosed it then the company would for sure fall and then a very few select douche companies like Better Mortgage.
Todem
Footballguy
They sound like scum bags.
Still........20-30% upside for a trade.
It's about making some money here.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Maybe "rule" was an exaggeration (there's certainly no data on it) but like you said, not uncommon. Definitely happened to me once in my younger days as a software engineer.
Regardless, investing and morality aren't exactly the most agreeable thing with each other. All of these companies are trying to screw over users and employees by the maximum amount they can get away with to increase margins so share price will go up. That's kind of the basis of the whole system.
If you go on reddit or the like you'll see slews of people struggling to get by blaming some of their struggles on companies giving less (shrinkflation) for more (price increases) to increase profit margins to keep greedy shareholders happy. We are those greedy shareholders all the people just trying to get by hate. We have accepted the moral position of supporting that system to make money. I'm not going to lose sleep over it, but I'm not going to act like investing is some pillar of morality either. If those surprise layoffs had helped the margins enough for NKE to go up everyone would be high fiving over it. Heck, AMZN is notorious for treating its employees terribly and it's one of the most popular and heavily owned stocks in this thread.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I think it may be. In tech, it's definitely the rule. Everyone gets axed the same day, gets their severance package explained, and gets locked out of all systems instantly.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, I'm aware. Doesn't mean I have to like it. It's one thing if company X based in city Y does it. But this is my backyard and these are my friends.
Todem
Footballguy
Understandable.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Just a reminder to you maniacs - today is a half day. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
I agree that in tech/electronics it's the norm. In the last two decades it seems to have gotten more brutal. It used to be you'd at least get warning that a layoff is coming and some time to say goodbye to coworkers after you were notified. Now you'll think it's a normal day and all of the sudden you see people being shadowed by HR while they quickly pack up their personal items. I joked after one of ours that we're only a few years away from the SOP being that they shoot you with a tranquilizer dart and you wake up in your car with a note informing you of your status.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
DM sold. Guess I won't have to worry about tax loss harvesting for... ever
McBokonon
Footballguy
You can still sell your shares, can’t you?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Nancy Pelosi loaded up last week. She knows.
Pretty simple, Lebron wears Nikes. Washed up and never as dominant as Jordan.Nike was "THE" brand in the 90's and it was all because of Jordan.When I was a kid growing up through a young adult, it was basically Nike or nothing. I mean, pretty much every kid in 90's HS wore Nike unless they were part of some sub culture wearing boots or something.IMHO, yes. Without remembering the exact numbers, I think the gist was that their revenues would be negative instead of slightly positive.I haven't paid attention to NKE in years. Was their report really bad enough to arrant 15-20% down?
It may be early, but this feels like Cisco or Intel, they’ll still be significant in terms of revenue and market but they are losing all their growth to these new shoe companies. My middle son and youngest sons wore Nikes since they were born and now in HS and college, both of their last sneaker purchases were Hokas. Wife has been wearing those for years now to work out.
For them to have negative growth when all these upstarts are growing like weeds just means they are losing market share faster than they can grow.
Now, chances are for kids that they are wearing Crocs. For sports, my son has no special affinity to Nike though he will get Nike but just as happy with Addidas or Under Armor for basketball shoes or cleats. With basketball, it is way more about what they look like and maybe which athlete they are named after.
As a brand, Nike is still relevant but it is no longer king like it has been for decades. It will still make money but I think it will continue to have market share eaten away from it.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
If Bronny flops, which sadly, I think they have set this kid up for epic failure, I think that will really diminish LeBron's brand even more. I think most people are realizing how much of a cancer he is one teams- undermining coaches, GM's and other players. No one can say that Bronny being drafted in the 2nd to the Lakers is not ALL about bowing to LeBron. People are snickering about it now but if that kid fails.... it will get even nastier.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No one cares about late 2nd round picks in the NBA anyway. It's not like they lost anything of value.
Yep. It’s also going to be newsworthy when a dad and son are playing together. That marketing alone is probably worth the pick.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, who cares about the kid most likely crashing and burning. At least LeBron got what he wanted.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Quiet day in the markets but I see you, AMD. 
McBokonon
Footballguy
This one is going well. Too bad @General Malaise didn't tail this one. (don't worry, NICE will be fine eventually.)Started an $APP position over the last couple of days.
Sand
Footballguy
I nice, quiet 0.5% gain. I'm enjoying these days while they last.Quiet day in the markets but I see you, AMD.
General Malaise
Footballguy
This one is going well. Too bad @General Malaise didn't tail this one. (don't worry, NICE will be fine eventually.)Started an $APP position over the last couple of days.
Not even remotely worried on NICE.
McBokonon
Footballguy
APP went red pretty much right after I posted.This one is going well. Too bad @General Malaise didn't tail this one. (don't worry, NICE will be fine eventually.)Started an $APP position over the last couple of days.
Not even remotely worried on NICE.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I just saw a video that goes back to the Nike conversation earlier. It was an NBA coach at the gym and he was mad because all these kids were at the gym without sneakers. The shot pans to about ten kids and all of them are wearing crocs. These younger generations do not care about shoes like the ones before them that Nike built up from. They don't care about the brand either. It is just another shoe company. Long term, I hate the companies prospects unless they make some major course corrections. The old model of paying athletes big sponsorship dollars and watching the money roll in is not as effective as it was.
identikit
Footballguy
Well...
Capella
Footballguy
The love of my life
(Somebody delete my posts if I die before my wife sees it. Enjoy the money baby)
Capella
Footballguy
Plenty of this on Reddit. Kind of hard to believe.
Bossman
Footballguy
NVDU is also a pal of mine as of lately.
Still holding from $106
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm very much enjoying my VGT "free lunch".
Hard to believe that VGT is an index fund with the way its been running.
Is anyone else getting this kind of return from an index fund?
5 days: +2.7% 20 days: +8.9% 60 days: +14.3% YTD: +24%
1 year: +37.8% 3 years: +50.4% 5 years: +190.6% 8 years: +490%
