Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

[Capella]

not crushing beats = loss

Yup

 

[nysfl2]

I chickened out and sold half my holdings today. Will probably jump back in if the drop is significant tomorrow.

 

[Todem]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

Seriously. If that is disappointing and below some sort of expectation—I think maybe the expectations are flawed. 122% revenue increase year over year (for a company that size) is incredible. We’re not talking about a company that is going from $500k to $1.1 million in profits. We’re talking about the second or third most valuable company on the planet increasing revenues by that much.

 

[KGB]

Nvda.

Loaded up at $118

 

[SFBayDuck]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

Seriously. If that is disappointing and below some sort of expectation—I think maybe the expectations are flawed. 122% revenue increase year over year (for a company that size) is incredible. We’re not talking about a company that is going from $500k to $1.1 million in profits. We’re talking about the second or third most valuable company on the planet increasing revenues by that much.

Revenues increased from $13.5B to $30 Freakin' Billion. Unbelievable. But the whisper numbers were higher, so down it goes.

 

[steelerfan1]

I’m starting to think the stock world be a fickle group…

 

[KGB]

Nvda.

Loaded up at $118

More at $116

$122 average

 

[fruity pebbles]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

Old news and built into the price. I mean the stock has been a rocket ship. Growth is slowing. Sequential revenue growth the last four quarters has gone from 33% to 22% to 18% to 15%. Still incredible but it is noticeably slowing as the numbers get larger. They beat revenue estimates by a little over a billion this quarter. Next quarter the estimate is 32.5 billion. They beat by a billion again and sequential growth is down to 12%.

 

[General Malaise]

With NVDA, I'm less concerned with the near term action and news. If you believe like I do that AI growth will be exponential then this really is the stock to own. Like APPL or AMZN I view NVDA as a stock holding I'll keep until I'm dead and gone and my wife and kids have to deal with it.

 

[pecorino]

With NVDA, I'm less concerned with the near term action and news. If you believe like I do that AI growth will be exponential then this really is the stock to own. Like APPL or AMZN I view NVDA as a stock holding I'll keep until I'm dead and gone and my wife and kids have to deal with it.

Bonus: savings on capital gains, too, if you’re dead. Shark move.

 

[fruity pebbles]

---

We are about to uninvert the 2-10 yield. How exciting.

 

[Todem]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

Old news and built into the price. I mean the stock has been a rocket ship. Growth is slowing. Sequential revenue growth the last four quarters has gone from 33% to 22% to 18% to 15%. Still incredible but it is noticeably slowing as the numbers get larger. They beat revenue estimates by a little over a billion this quarter. Next quarter the estimate is 32.5 billion. They beat by a billion again and sequential growth is down to 12%.

Priced in? The forward multiple is still cheap.

But yeah it’s been an amazing ride. Which shows no signs long term of slowing down anytime soon.

Still plenty of runway because we are literally in inning one of the AI revolution.

 

[stbugs]

not crushing beats = loss

122% revenue increase year over year.

Think about that for one min.

Let’s be real though. 2023 numbers were 0% growth over 2022 and more importantly the stock has gone from a low of $10 to a high of $140. That’s well ahead of growth. It’s bound to happen because it is slowing and they won’t be in as cherry position going forward where they set the price to whatever they want.

AI is in the early stages but I think other stocks will step forward. I think they’ll still be a major player but their growth and margins won’t be what they are now. We’ve seen zillions of examples in tech, heck NVDA has had two big cycles and run ups for GPUs in gaming and GPUs in crypto mining. AI is going to be really big but the next wave of growth IMHO is the levels above the GPUs which have been funding the meteoric rise in NVDA revenue.

I don’t expect NVDA to crash or not have huge revenue but 33% to 15% sequential growth in a year will get people’s attention. The P/S is about 30 right now and if growth isn’t perfect and margins shrink to keep selling (remember they aren’t a subscription model), that’s a multiple that will have a tough time. Again, I don’t expect revenue to go away but that they could turn the corner to a very profitable business that isn’t growing leaps and bounds and the business will catch up to the stock price.

 

[Sand]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

 

[ghostguy123]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

 

[Capella]

NVDA settling in down 2% seems like a good sign to me.

 

[General Malaise]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

I'm pretty sure first time home buyers had an incentive to buy back in 2010 or so. Wasn't 25K but it was also not nothing. So, it's been done.

 

[General Malaise]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

I'm pretty sure first time home buyers had an incentive to buy back in 2010 or so. Wasn't 25K but it was also not nothing. So, it's been done.

https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/first-time-home-buyer-tax-credit#:~:text=The%20Housing%20and%20Economic%20Recovery%20Act%20of%202008%20established%20a,equal%20installments%20starting%20in%202010.

 

[Buckna]

NVDA settling in down 2% seems like a good sign to me.

Thought I might have a buying opportunity today to add more but the overreaction to “not growing enough” seems to have been contained to After Hours only.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

I'm pretty sure first time home buyers had an incentive to buy back in 2010 or so. Wasn't 25K but it was also not nothing. So, it's been done.

https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/first-time-home-buyer-tax-credit#:~:text=The%20Housing%20and%20Economic%20Recovery%20Act%20of%202008%20established%20a,equal%20installments%20starting%20in%202010.

Yeah I used this on my first home purchase.

 

[nysfl2]

NVDA settling in down 2% seems like a good sign to me.

Thought I might have a buying opportunity today to add more but the overreaction to “not growing enough” seems to have been contained to After Hours only.

I bought most of my position back already

 

[Sand]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

I'm pretty sure first time home buyers had an incentive to buy back in 2010 or so. Wasn't 25K but it was also not nothing. So, it's been done.

Pell grants have been shown conclusively to be the cause of some of the tuition increases over the years. By analogy, money flow rules means that 25k or a good portion of it will travel to the seller in price inflation (yay! More expensive housing).

To bring this back to stock talk if this looks likely to go through I'll be looking at buying LEN, etc. They will make bank off of the govt. cheese.

 

[Peggy]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

Just like student loan forgiveness wasn't ever going to happen?

 

[stbugs]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

I'm pretty sure first time home buyers had an incentive to buy back in 2010 or so. Wasn't 25K but it was also not nothing. So, it's been done.

Pell grants have been shown conclusively to be the cause of some of the tuition increases over the years. By analogy, money flow rules means that 25k or a good portion of it will travel to the seller in price inflation (yay! More expensive housing).

To bring this back to stock talk if this looks likely to go through I'll be looking at buying LEN, etc. They will make bank off of the govt. cheese.

I know I will be telling my oldest and my nephew to take advantage of it, if it makes its way to fruition. For first time buyers, it’s free money but I agree that it’s just going to create more demand. I think in their case it could be a solid down payment for a starter type home that they live in for a few years and possibly upgrade and keep for a rental.

 

[General Malaise]

This is why it sucks that we're taxed on every sale instead of just when we actually withdraw the money. I would love to roll some NVDA into something safer, but the tax hit would be brutal and I could only buy 65% as much of the new stock as I hold in NVDA.

Taxed on every sale is sure a heck of a lot better than being taxed on unrealized gains....which is being proposed

Meh. Only on holdings 100M+ and only in cases where 80% of the owner's liquidity is loans against that holding, and refundable if the stock loses value.

Not to get political, but that whole thing has been pretty highly misrepresented. They're just trying to narrow the tax loophole of billionaires borrowing against their stock instead of ever realizing their gains.

As a note on this - practical, not political. It took the IRS 12 years to value Michael Jackson's estate. 12 years. How do you think this will go with many thousands of folks on an annual basis? I'm thinking on an epic scale and it would take some extraordinary data to convince me otherwise.

There are way easier ways to handle the loan issue.

Oh I don't think it would ever happen. Just another talking point to try and get votes.
Kinda like giving first time home buyers 25 grand towards the down payment. Not happening.

Just like student loan forgiveness wasn't ever going to happen?

Or, you know, bailing out banks.

 

[McBokonon]

Guys...

 

[guru_007]

NVDA which is about 6.5% of the S&P is down 3.4% and S&P is up like 39 points. That's a pretty bullish sign for the market. Just saying.

 

[Lomez]

NVDA Nov $160 Calls $3.50

$160

31% bump from here.

Was going to trim my position before earnings, but I sold a couple of these instead. Pretty OK with that result atm.

 

[Lomez]

Guys...

Both of your parties are equally likely to irresponsibly spend us into oblivion. Now shake hands and go to the signless, single-person bathrooms of your choice.

 

[tommyGunZ]

For those of you looking for a sell signal, I bought (another) chunk of NVDA at 121.

Like GM, I see NVDA as a long term buy and hold.

 

[General Malaise]

Good little day for APPL.

 

[Capella]

NVDA settling in down 2% seems like a good sign to me.

Are you telling me I spoke too soon? [gasp] why I never

 

[Desert_Power]

For those of you looking for a sell signal, I bought (another) chunk of NVDA at 121.

Like GM, I see NVDA as a long term buy and hold.

Damnit

 

[KGB]

Nvda.

Loaded up at $118

More at $116

$122 average

Nvda. Purchased more shares. $120 average now

Down to $7070 after my NVDA gambles...

 

[Todem]

Good little day for APPL.

Good year actually.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Parts of this thread about to get pruned like an MCU timeline.

 

[identikit]

Bounce-back day for NVDA...

I hope

 

[Lomez]

I get the buyback. You want to juice the stock price and shareholders. That just screams to me, "We're no longer creative enough to find better uses for those billions." NVDA ain't AAPL. At least not yet. I hope.

I'd rather you found the next SOUN or ARM to invest in, even. I'm sure I'm in the minority there.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

NVDA Nov $160 Calls $3.50

$160

31% bump from here.

Was going to trim my position before earnings, but I sold a couple of these instead. Pretty OK with that result atm.

Yeah I sold 1 Sep $151 call for $3.15, which is now down to $0.30. Sideways trading's a decent result since I'm still long the stock. Debating whether to let the call just run down to $0 or close it out early to move on and avoid feeling like an idiot if the stock for some reason has a huge runup in the next month. Leaning towards closing it out.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

NVDA Nov $160 Calls $3.50

$160

31% bump from here.

Was going to trim my position before earnings, but I sold a couple of these instead. Pretty OK with that result atm.

Yeah I sold 1 Sep $151 call for $3.15, which is now down to $0.30. Sideways trading's a decent result since I'm still long the stock. Debating whether to let the call just run down to $0 or close it out early to move on and avoid feeling like an idiot if the stock for some reason has a huge runup in the next month. Leaning towards closing it out.

For 30 bucks I would just close it.

 

[identikit]

Looking like an ugh day

 

[Desert_Power]

Looking like an ugh day

Good thing I remembered to update my monthly spreadsheet over the weekend.

 

[Buckna]

Well didn’t add some NVDA last week, but did today.

 

[Capella]

Well didn’t add some NVDA last week, but did today.

Sure did too.

 

[General Malaise]

This stock market is DJ Ugaugly

 

[SFBayDuck]

This stock market is DJ Ugaugly

Clemson/OSU/FSU fan - "too soon."

 

[General Malaise]

Gonna go ahead and shut my portfolio down for the day. Enough of that.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Gonna go ahead and shut my portfolio down for the day. Enough of that.

Super-stoked today is net worth update day, so I'm gonna have to look at everything this afternoon.

 

[Lomez]

This stock market is DJ Ugaugly

At least you didn't wager a poop cup on the outcome.