Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

[Peggy]

I'm not arguing valuation or anything here, but the idea that NVDA isn't simply performing better as a business than their competitors or that's all due to luck is a strange take. They are always ahead of not just the Intel dumpster fire, but everyone else.

Agree, and having your chips fabricated by a third party does not necessarily equal your chips being a commodity. TSMC can make chips without owning the design itself. It's not like you can walk in there and ask for "generic NVDA" for you to sell. There's more to a chip than just node size and pitch, so you can't a priori assume that a company doesn't have a competitive advantage just because they use a contract manufacturer.

Check the patents. TSMC holds all the chip patents, they can sell them to whomever they want. NVDA is patenting neural networks.

 

[pecorino]

TLT should move upwards if there is a rate cut in a couple weeks. Anyone have a rule of thumb about how much it moves (typically) if there is a 25 basis point cut? I’m spitballing thinking about 4% based on some sketchy sites I found. Does that sound plausible? Anyone have solid data on this? Obviously it won’t be lockstep, just looking for a rough estimate.

 

[McBokonon]

TLT should move upwards if there is a rate cut in a couple weeks. Anyone have a rule of thumb about how much it moves (typically) if there is a 25 basis point cut? I’m spitballing thinking about 4% based on some sketchy sites I found. Does that sound plausible? Anyone have solid data on this? Obviously it won’t be lockstep, just looking for a rough estimate.

I don’t trade TLT but whatever movement would be driven by a 25 basis point cut has already happened. There’s zero doubt there will be a cut and hasn’t been for a while.

 

[SFBayDuck]

TLT should move upwards if there is a rate cut in a couple weeks. Anyone have a rule of thumb about how much it moves (typically) if there is a 25 basis point cut? I’m spitballing thinking about 4% based on some sketchy sites I found. Does that sound plausible? Anyone have solid data on this? Obviously it won’t be lockstep, just looking for a rough estimate.

I don’t trade TLT but whatever movement would be driven by a 25 basis point cut has already happened. There’s zero doubt there will be a cut and hasn’t been for a while.

I’m in longer term treasury ETFs like EDV and GOVZ as they act like a 1.5x leveraged form of TLT (purpose is diversification from equities). I agree that much of the initial rate cuts are priced in. That said, likely some tailwinds if rates are going to drop 100-200 basis points in the next year or two.

 

[pecorino]

ok, let me restate: historically speaking, even if a change in rates was already baked in, when a rate change was actually declared, on average how much does the TLT move on say a 25 Bps move? It could be zero this September because of this particular set of circumstances but in the past, my understanding is that there is / can be a discrete move in TLT when rates change. How much?

 

[Dr_Zaius]

I'm not arguing valuation or anything here, but the idea that NVDA isn't simply performing better as a business than their competitors or that's all due to luck is a strange take. They are always ahead of not just the Intel dumpster fire, but everyone else.

Agree, and having your chips fabricated by a third party does not necessarily equal your chips being a commodity. TSMC can make chips without owning the design itself. It's not like you can walk in there and ask for "generic NVDA" for you to sell. There's more to a chip than just node size and pitch, so you can't a priori assume that a company doesn't have a competitive advantage just because they use a contract manufacturer.

Check the patents. TSMC holds all the chip patents, they can sell them to whomever they want. NVDA is patenting neural networks.

Interesting, thanks. I would not have expected NVDA to allow competitors direct access to the chips they use like that. Clearly they think their secret sauce elsewhere is enough to secure their position.

 

[Schmeabs]

ok, let me restate: historically speaking, even if a change in rates was already baked in, when a rate change was actually declared, on average how much does the TLT move on say a 25 Bps move? It could be zero this September because of this particular set of circumstances but in the past, my understanding is that there is / can be a discrete move in TLT when rates change. How much?

I don't think it will move at all with a 25 bps drop by the Fed but if they surprise and do a 50 bps cut then yeah it will get a nice bounce, maybe 1-4%. Language on future cuts is what could move the 10 year Treasury which TLT is more inversely related to than fed funds rate. Sitting today at 3.73% it has had a nice drop since being close to 5% earlier this year. I think the floor may be around 3.50% at end of year which would give you marginal gains in TLT as I think the bulk of gains have been made the past 4 months.

 

[pecorino]

ok, let me restate: historically speaking, even if a change in rates was already baked in, when a rate change was actually declared, on average how much does the TLT move on say a 25 Bps move? It could be zero this September because of this particular set of circumstances but in the past, my understanding is that there is / can be a discrete move in TLT when rates change. How much?

I don't think it will move at all with a 25 bps drop by the Fed but if they surprise and do a 50 bps cut then yeah it will get a nice bounce, maybe 1-4%....

This is pretty much where I am. In general, I'd expect a move of about 4% for every 25 Bps, everything else being equal. For this month, the first 25 Bps is probably baked in so it would take another 25 to get the TLT to move. I'm willing to put some money on that possibility.

 

[beef]

Just a back to school sale on tech stuff.

These the Clearance prices?

Added to some long holdings in SMH & the Q's.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Roaring Kitty tweets; GME spikes up 8%

 

[Desert_Power]

We should really put people in prison for that level of stock manipulation

 

[General Malaise]

Well this week was dumb.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Well this week was dumb.

Did your company's stock tank 18% the day after earnings release that beat on revenue, guidance, and showed profitability for the first time? Or is that just me?

 

[kevzilla]

The market always takes a dump when I go to Vegas. Sorry, folks. Gotta go make it back at the tables.

 

[Orange&Blue]

why isn't this showing up on the ffa forum?

 

[culdeus]

why isn't this showing up on the ffa forum?

Huh

 

[Desert_Power]

why isn't this showing up on the ffa forum?

Accidentally ignored STL Bobby?

 

[Orange&Blue]

why isn't this showing up on the ffa forum?

Accidentally ignored STL Bobby?

that was it. how did that happen?

 

[beef]

The market always takes a dump when I go to Vegas. Sorry, folks. Gotta go make it back at the tables.

I like adding on days/weeks like this, so thank you. Besides some long adds, I of course had to add some SOXL and TQQQ. Also started up a new TNA position.

 

[Nugget]

The market always takes a dump when I go to Vegas. Sorry, folks. Gotta go make it back at the tables.

I like adding on days/weeks like this, so thank you. Besides some long adds, I of course had to add some SOXL and TQQQ. Also started up a new TNA position.

I just got back in to SOXL today.

 

[beef]

The market always takes a dump when I go to Vegas. Sorry, folks. Gotta go make it back at the tables.

I like adding on days/weeks like this, so thank you. Besides some long adds, I of course had to add some SOXL and TQQQ. Also started up a new TNA position.

I just got back in to SOXL today.

I'm expecting I might need a little patience on the next SOXL run. I'm leaving cash available to DCA if need be.

 

[jwb]

PLTR to join the S&P 500

 

[pecorino]

Wow, Quiet in here with markets booming. Some thoughts: 1) I bailed on PLTR a couple weeks ago on a mild gain. Good for them but bummed I am not still in it, 2) I know that I should not be making investing decisions in light of the political landscape but the next two (or four) months look like a trainwreck a-coming. I couldn't help myself from selling a pretty good slice today on the pop. Just freed up a lot of cash and moved some more into XLE and TLT. 3) Related, everyone knows that rates are going down soon so I like TLT and have pimped it before on this board. Might add some other bond fund--just not sure what pairs well with TLT so I'm all ears on that one. 4) Just a note for those of you who trade in individual stocks but do not own JPM. I bought it a couple years ago when every time someone referred to it, they used the adjective "best-in-class." It is a such a cozy safety blanket to have in my portfolio. It never seems to go down as sharply as broader markets on bad days and most of the time it just creeps up slowly and surely. I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Google looking good at $150?

 

[Orange&Blue]

Wow, Quiet in here with markets booming. Some thoughts: 1) I bailed on PLTR a couple weeks ago on a mild gain. Good for them but bummed I am not still in it, 2) I know that I should not be making investing decisions in light of the political landscape but the next two (or four) months look like a trainwreck a-coming. I couldn't help myself from selling a pretty good slice today on the pop. Just freed up a lot of cash and moved some more into XLE and TLT. 3) Related, everyone knows that rates are going down soon so I like TLT and have pimped it before on this board. Might add some other bond fund--just not sure what pairs well with TLT so I'm all ears on that one. 4) Just a note for those of you who trade in individual stocks but do not own JPM. I bought it a couple years ago when every time someone referred to it, they used the adjective "best-in-class." It is a such a cozy safety blanket to have in my portfolio. It never seems to go down as sharply as broader markets on bad days and most of the time it just creeps up slowly and surely. I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

if I wasn't already invested heavily in AMX i would do JPM.

 

[Capella]

Wow, Quiet in here with markets booming.

We only talk when we’re angry.

 

[kevzilla]

Talking to the old man about JPM preferreds. That was Bobby Sac's jam, right?

 

[pecorino]

Speaking of JPM, it is on sale today. I bought 50 more shares, makes me feel all ooey gooey inside.

 

[pecorino]

Added some $INMD and started $ZBRA this morning.

Just got pitched to buy INMD. Nice little rise today but hammered over the past couple of years. Anyone see a catalyst on the horizon to turn this one around?

 

[McBokonon]

Added some $INMD and started $ZBRA this morning.

Just got pitched to buy INMD. Nice little rise today but hammered over the past couple of years. Anyone see a catalyst on the horizon to turn this one around?

I bailed a long time ago, lost faith in management. However, part of the reason investors got disillusioned is they refused to do buybacks or anything with their massive cash pile. I see they authorized one, finally, and that's why it's rising. Thanks for bumping, I might as well take another look.

 

[McBokonon]

I own 4, $20 DJT puts expiring 10/18. Bought them after reading an article a few months ago, I can't seem to finf now, how the lock up period for insiders is end of September. A week or so earlier if the stock price is over $20. Given the valuation, I don't see how there won't be a race for the exits.

I hope you’re still hanging on to these. Might not be a bad idea to take a little off the table since this thing doesn’t always trade according to fundamentals.

 

[McBokonon]

MELI seems like a screaming buy here. Bottom line miss only due to (what they're calling 1-time) tax hits and basically every analyst reiterating buys/overweights and raising price targets based on the results.

I added.

Me Bob

Looks like we're getting that breakout we've been waiting for.

 

[Lomez]

@Sand I believe you were the one who was checking out FSCO. Any thoughts/re-evaluation of it at this point?

 

[Sand]

@Sand I believe you were the one who was checking out FSCO. Any thoughts/re-evaluation of it at this point?

I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I'm still holding and hoping to profit off the degradation of interest rates. I think it will do well there.

Still, with that dividend it's definitely on the speculative side.

On the conservative side I also really like JAAA.

 

[identikit]

MELI seems like a screaming buy here. Bottom line miss only due to (what they're calling 1-time) tax hits and basically every analyst reiterating buys/overweights and raising price targets based on the results.

I added.

Me Bob

Looks like we're getting that breakout we've been waiting for.

Sold too soon here

 

[pecorino]

@Sand I believe you were the one who was checking out FSCO. Any thoughts/re-evaluation of it at this point?

I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I'm still holding and hoping to profit off the degradation of interest rates. I think it will do well there.

Still, with that dividend it's definitely on the speculative side.

On the conservative side I also really like JAAA.

Won’t JAAA do poorly as rates fall? I’ve been looking at long term bond funds which should do better. JAAA is comprised of short term.

 

[pecorino]

3 stocks recommended in this thread:

BLDP

NARI

EVFM

my 3 worst positions since purchase, any thoughts on them?

NARI is trading about half price from where it was in August 2021. I recall the first few months of trading of that name and it doubled, at least, in that time. So it's trading at a massive discount to its highs and right around its IPO price in the 40s. I also recall someone on this board pimping NARI as best in class or as the outfit that everyone used for their _____ needs (some kind of medical devices). I'd like to see them make a profit, which they don't, but still wondering if NARI is buyable now that it's back at its IPO levels.

While I'm here: BLDP--I keep accumulating as it goes down, especially in the last few months when it looks more likely that someone who is pro alternate-energy could be in the White House. I bought 500 more at $1.70 recently. As todem preaches, it is a long term play and I'm not counting on it paying off but I like the space.

 

[pecorino]

Just asking. You have me curious. I know nothing about it.

New (ish - like last 5 years or so) medical device company. Making incredible inroads and on every shelf I see. Interventional (minimally invasive) clot removal from veins.

The CEO has a magic touch. If I recall he has sold his last few companies to Medtronic and EV3 and Angiodynamics.

Also - my brilliant vision allowed me to turn down a job offer with them several years ago. Such a stupid call.

Bump. This is the post about INARI (NARI) that I was trying to recall.

ETA: There are plenty of other posts from May 2020 (I shudder to remember that spring) praising Inari.

 

[McBokonon]

I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

I’ve only owned it for a little over a year, but $LDOS is turning into this for me. I was just reminded of this post as I went through security and saw that they were the manufacturer of the walkthrough xray thing. They are in defense but also healthcare. They make “stuff” but also higher margin software. Good growth, getting more and more government contracts. Might be your kind of company but there’s also some growth here.

ETA; And because I know you’ll look, make sure you look at the forward P/E vs. the trailing.

 

[nysfl2]

A few months ago, I decided that I wanted to get into the housing builder sector, given that everything that I read is that the US has a huge deficit in housing right now and won't be able to catch up for at least a decade. Bought some DHI and TOL at the time, and they have just been steadily growing since I got them. Would still recommend.

 

[Sand]

@Sand I believe you were the one who was checking out FSCO. Any thoughts/re-evaluation of it at this point?

I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I'm still holding and hoping to profit off the degradation of interest rates. I think it will do well there.

Still, with that dividend it's definitely on the speculative side.

On the conservative side I also really like JAAA.

Won’t JAAA do poorly as rates fall? I’ve been looking at long term bond funds which should do better. JAAA is comprised of short term.

JAAA will definitely track more closely to bills rather than notes or bonds. But they are juiced a bit and it appears to be very stable since maturity is so short.

 

[kevzilla]

Speaking of breakouts, BX

 

[Lomez]

I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

I’ve only owned it for a little over a year, but $LDOS is turning into this for me. I was just reminded of this post as I went through security and saw that they were the manufacturer of the walkthrough xray thing. They are in defense but also healthcare. They make “stuff” but also higher margin software. Good growth, getting more and more government contracts. Might be your kind of company but there’s also some growth here.

ETA; And because I know you’ll look, make sure you look at the forward P/E vs. the trailing.

I replaced LDOS with LWindows.

 

[McBokonon]

I've been looking for other cozy stocks like that and I do own Deere though it doesn't inspire the same level of affection from me. Curious if you've got others to add to the JPM-I-Love-You list.

I’ve only owned it for a little over a year, but $LDOS is turning into this for me. I was just reminded of this post as I went through security and saw that they were the manufacturer of the walkthrough xray thing. They are in defense but also healthcare. They make “stuff” but also higher margin software. Good growth, getting more and more government contracts. Might be your kind of company but there’s also some growth here.

ETA; And because I know you’ll look, make sure you look at the forward P/E vs. the trailing.

I replaced LDOS with LWindows.

:rimshotemoji:

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Speaking of breakouts, BX

Nice! What others did you have?

 

[kevzilla]

Speaking of breakouts, BX

Nice! What others did you have?

I'll have to settle for one breakout per day.

BX and AMZN are just over and just under a third of my trading portfolio, respectively. I go as they go.

 

[identikit]

Saw an interview with PLTR's guy Alex Karp on Bill Maher over the weekend.

Very impressive guy.

Makes me want to buy some of that stock.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Saw an interview with PLTR's guy Alex Karp on Bill Maher over the weekend.

Very impressive guy.

Makes me want to buy some of that stock.

I got some April 17th. Up 72%. Been nice. Found that they are the best at what they do, and they charge more than any other. Figured more companies should and would want to do business with them going forward.

 

[Sand]

Saw an interview with PLTR's guy Alex Karp on Bill Maher over the weekend.

Very impressive guy.

Makes me want to buy some of that stock.

I had a meeting that ran late a number of months back and had a small pile of money allocated to PLTR at 7. Markets closed and it jumped to 9. Cursed and figured I'd wait until it dipped a hair. Now at 36.

 

[Sideshow Bob]

Saw an interview with PLTR's guy Alex Karp on Bill Maher over the weekend.

Very impressive guy.

Makes me want to buy some of that stock.

I had a meeting that ran late a number of months back and had a small pile of money allocated to PLTR at 7. Markets closed and it jumped to 9. Cursed and figured I'd wait until it dipped a hair. Now at 36.

Sold $31 covered calls when it was at $25. Though that's been a regular churn that has made me more than I SHOULD lose having these called.