identikit
Footballguy
Love the Tin Ticker
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Stock Thread (49 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Love the Tin Ticker
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ADX shows dividend of 35%. That can't be right can it? It's shown that for a couple days.
They are paying a dividend of $1.96 in a couple days. (Ex Div is 11/21, for anyone interested.) That’s still under 10% since the stock is trading over $22. I suspect that 35% is an annualised number which includes a special buyback that happened a few months ago. Yes, it was epic.
Edit: they simply multiplied 1.96 * 4 to get an annualised dividend. It’s not correct as the other dividends throughout the year are tiny.
Last edited:
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Anyone interested in MCD as a Trump play? They're leaning back towards deep value ($5 meal; app-based deal), and my teenager goes regularly. Purely anecdotal analysis, but it seems like they are drawing customers back with value plays, and that'll stick if people lose buying power.
Black.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It could backfire based on Kennedy's presence in the Administration - but I do get the Trumpfan connection and can see them jumping onboard.
I'd be more interested if they hadn't of runup so much the last 4 months. Thought the E Coli outbreak would hurt the stock a lot more (may be the Trump factor is offsetting that.) I know anecdotally a lot of franchise stores are hurting bad sales-wise at the moment.
Capella
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Expensive stock here.
Not a value at this level.
Their net margins are currently at 31.8% and that number will compress if they become even more focused in value meals.
Revenue growth is a tepid 3.7%
I have owned MCD for decades…..this is not the price I would be starting a new position in it.
I am sure I will send the bat signal in here when that time comes.
It’s not now.
GennyScreamers
Footballguy
Would it be smart to purchase this today or tomorrow to take advantage of this? I'm not as familiar with dividends.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Not really. Dividends just reduce the share value by the amount of the distribution.
identikit
Footballguy
Thinking about doing something akin to this
Buying ahead of ex-dividend means that you would acquire some number of shares and then on 11/22 (I had the ex-div date wrong by one day), the share price would drop by $1.96, more or less. Then the dividend would get paid out 12/23. Aside from typical stock price fluctuations, it's a net zero. Some folks like to have money invested in stocks that pay dividends so that they can collect that money without selling the underlying stock. There are other reasons to buy dividend-paying stocks as well. But if you just buy it and think that you'll be netting $1.96 profit per share magically, that's not how dividends work. Personally, I reinvest dividends so the stock price will go down but I will have purchase more shares with the dividend. Again, net change of zero, really.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think this is the key with dividend stocks. It’s the compound interest effect.
Sand
Footballguy
Great note. I had no idea it had shot up so much. Sitting on a 240% gain. Took my cost basis off the table, so now a free roll.
As usual with these things wish I had done 100k instead of 4k into this.
Not that I had 100k to throw at it, but dang that was a quick buck.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Great note. I had no idea it had shot up so much. Sitting on a 240% gain. Took my cost basis off the table, so now a free roll.
As usual with these things wish I had done 100k instead of 4k into this.
I hear ya, wish I wasn't such a wuss. I do have some BTC spread across accounts at Fidelity and Coinbase and Paypal as well as a chunk of FBTC in Roth accounts. But even as volatile as BTC still is, it's nothing like MSTR.
And now we have options trading launched today on IBIT, further solidifying the standing of BTC in the TradFi world. And if this cycle is anything like the last 4, there is plenty of room to run (notice that chart isn't from some random @BTCFREAK69 with a laser eyes avatar, it's from Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity). And I'm thinking the true FOMO, especially via RIAs as their clients start asking why they aren't in it, hasn't even begun yet.
When I posted a couple of hours ago, I was up 168%. Now, 195%. This thing is starting to compound like crazy. Now I'm thinking I may just let this roll for a while. Even going to zero on this would just be (super) annoying, but it would have no real material impact (about one month's base expenses, which is how I'm starting to think about everything these days with my retirement obsession). But if BTC in this cycle hits $200K? $300K? I could be looking at a year's worth of expenses or more.
Either way, I'm sure it'll be a bumpy ride!!!!
Sand
Footballguy
I try to ignore it. The beta is like 3 - superball territory.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I just got in ADX early this year and it is confusing to me.
First off, There is a distribution (not a dividend) of $1.03 per share with an ex div of 11/22
From what I read previously I was expecting a larger dividend, but apparently they are recalibrating the expected 8% annual distribution to be at 2% per quarter, rather than a seriers of smaller annual distributions the first 3 Qs and a jumbo at the last Q to get the 8% total.
Since the first total this year is only 6.7% (I was expecting 8%), I am assuming they are holding back a bit to ensure the 2% target in Q1.
@Todem can you confirm or clarify any of this? Also, after the ex div date, do you anticipate the stock price to decrease roughly $1.03?
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
the answer is moving it to a grandparents 529 for optimized tax sheltering.
cosjobs
Footballguy
About 10 days ago I loaded up on the bid drop sold back at 25-30% profit and when it dropped below 20 I loaded up again. I seldom get a double-pop like that. At least not a positive one.Great note. I had no idea it had shot up so much. Sitting on a 240% gain. Took my cost basis off the table, so now a free roll.
As usual with these things wish I had done 100k instead of 4k into this.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
@St. Louis Bob Any chance you still have your 800 free shares? Lol on the 9 year bump.
This company ELTP is a wild story. They were working on getting FDA approval for abuse resistant opioids. That never panned out and the stock cratered. The future was very uncertain. They were smart to develop and build their existing but small generic business while trying for the AR opioid approval. Unfortunate that the latter didn’t pan out, but now they have a flourishing generic business. So impressive. They just got approval for another generic adhd drug yesterday. They already have the generic adderal, plus many other generics. Capacity is not an issue- they need to add shifts and bodies. The sky is literally the limit with this stock. Look at the 5 year increases in sales and profits. Buy and hold, easy $2-3 stock eventually. Plans to eventually uplift off the OTC. Potential big pharmaceutical buyout at some point. I got back in a month ago and will be buying lots more in the coming weeks. A hidden gem not many know about.
McBokonon
Footballguy
NVDA Day is a big day for everyone. They are our sun and our stars. The moon of our life.
Todem
Footballguy
Man this stock has been easy to trade though!!
We are talking about a quarterly miss here. Read about their digital sales though…..they grew 11%.
I am going to let it bleed today and tomorrow…..probably take half a position today.
This will be an easy short term trade again.
I would take half the position you want today and see how it opens tomorrow.
It’s not nearly as bad as it seems. Also they don’t derive a lot of their revenue from grocery (less than 25%) where as Walmart is 60% grocery.
Two different business models.
WMT has had an amazing run this year (up 65% and trading at a 35 multiple on a stock that has less than 3% margins).
TGT caters to a different kind of shopper and they are a wild chart that if you know the rhythm, you can trade this stock effectively.
It’s a trade here.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Agree with most (I made sure to acknowledge it as a trading vehicle just for you!) but not this part. Many retailers have adapted to COVID/Inflation/Consumer demand in a way Target hasn’t. It’s been going on for a few years now. Bad product mix, etc.
McBokonon
Footballguy
WE SHOULD HAVE KNOWN! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gc1Ba3GWYAEiebt?format=jpg&name=large
Todem
Footballguy
WMT is one of my biggest positions and I was certainly interested in stepping into TGT as the multiple looked compelling.
But, that quarter was a disaster and lowering guidance, I'm completely out.
Seems to me that WMT and COST are the only two retailers worth getting into and both are too expensive to get into right now.
And I know people love ripping on Cramer both here and the twitters, but he got me into NVDA 5-6 years ago and I'll always be grateful. If I had never trimmed that position, it would be far and away my largest, but, I'm human and stupid.
I'm not sure tonight's earnings call will be all that magnificent. I expect them to say unprecedent demand, and seeing it for the next 2-3 years. But, will skirt the overheating issue. It's really really tough to move a 3.5 trillion dollar stock much higher, imho.
But, that quarter was a disaster and lowering guidance, I'm completely out.
Seems to me that WMT and COST are the only two retailers worth getting into and both are too expensive to get into right now.
And I know people love ripping on Cramer both here and the twitters, but he got me into NVDA 5-6 years ago and I'll always be grateful. If I had never trimmed that position, it would be far and away my largest, but, I'm human and stupid.
I'm not sure tonight's earnings call will be all that magnificent. I expect them to say unprecedent demand, and seeing it for the next 2-3 years. But, will skirt the overheating issue. It's really really tough to move a 3.5 trillion dollar stock much higher, imho.
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah this is exactly why this will be a good trade.
This is an easy 20-25% inside 12 months. Target is a different breed than Walmart......Walmart is everything to everyone and heavily into grocery. That's not Target.
Target has stumbled many times in the past and then picked itself right back up.....this is a really easy trade here.
Great, so you’re saying I should back up the truck up to the January 2027 $110 calls at $29 per? On it.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Way to LEAP into action.
Clever. Actually bought four calls at $28.50 each.
Sand
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
God no...this is cyclical trade. I am looking 12 months out here....not 2.
I’m anecdotal here but I feel like we shop at Target way less than we used to and buy way more at Costco and Amazon. There isn’t a Walmart close, but Target is very close. The convenience of getting everything dropped at my doorstep or getting bulk prices on stuff Costco sales has really squeezed out going to Target. The Target near us has groceries, but I’ve never bought groceries. It seems half assed to be honest, so not sure if that’s how they do it everywhere. There are a few toiletries I get at Target because they always have sales, but I always do their convenient drive up. While convenient, not going into the store keeps me from getting extra stuff like I often do at Costco (tried their fried macaroni and cheese balls, damn tasty).
@Todem That 11% digital sale increase might not be a big deal if they count App shopping and pickup. Also, their digital sales are probably a fraction of Walmart and Amazon, so 11% isn’t going to keep them in the game.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Anecdotally, we also shop at target less, despite our being quite close. But their parking lot always still seems quite full when we drive past. There have to be traffic numbers in that report, right? What's the driver? Fewer shoppers? Same shoppers spending less? Both?
Literally ridiculous. Based on the Q3 bitcoin counts, you are paying 4x the actual price of the Bitcoin they own. That also doesn’t include the debt they are adding or dilution when they do an equity offering.
It still boggles my mind. I do think a bit of a recession is coming and this stock could get slaughtered. God forbid Bitcoin gets dragged back down to 60k or 50k or 40k and they are underwater with all their purchasing at 90k.
Wild ride but I don’t think some of the people in it realize what it’s going to feel like if you have something like a 4x leveraged ETF that goes down.
January 2027. The year. As in 26 months from now.
WMT is so expensive. I think their PEG is well over 3 now. I’m hoping NVDA reports well because that will help the market overall for a bit. So many stocks just look really, really expensive unless they pulled a Target, and it’s not just the high growth ones, it’s the stodgy safe plays.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I don't disagree with anything you say. It's acting like they found a cheat code with this "BTC yield" idea. Can't imagine that won't fall apart at some point, right?
A few trading hours later, now 228%.
The next 25% down day is going to hurt.
Now imagine being in the 2x, MSTU or MSTX. Those are up 325%+....in 10 days!
Todem
Footballguy
This is a trade not an investment.
If I can make a 20-25% pop inside 12 months I am very happy.
We have successfully traded this stock too many times to count so my confidence level is high a year from now we can cash it out again for 20-25%.
That’s all it is. Target is highly cyclical. They have a strong legion and yeah they endured a rough quarter.
They are not going out of business in a year….not even close.
identikit
Footballguy
I don't disagree with anything you say. It's acting like they found a cheat code with this "BTC yield" idea. Can't imagine that won't fall apart at some point, right?
A few trading hours later, now 228%.
The next 25% down day is going to hurt.
Now imagine being in the 2x, MSTU or MSTX. Those are up 325%+....in 10 days!
March til now, up 295%
Sand
Footballguy
I kid - I'm not unhappy with booking profits on something this volatile. BTC could be 110k or 60k at year's end.
LOL, that BTC yield was a winner as well as talking about being the Bitcoin bank.
I don't disagree with anything you say. It's acting like they found a cheat code with this "BTC yield" idea. Can't imagine that won't fall apart at some point, right?
A few trading hours later, now 228%.
The next 25% down day is going to hurt.
Now imagine being in the 2x, MSTU or MSTX. Those are up 325%+....in 10 days!
That Bitcoin Yield reminds me of “eyeballs” back in the late 90s/2000 before the crash. I remember a lot of companies, like Excite or Alta Vista or CommerceOne or even Yahoo (as a leader), that are gone or irrelevant. There were two big things, one was companies were measured on how much they spent and for non-profitable companies there were literally financial articles that looked at eyeballs (active users or just dummy users in some cases) and calculated the market caps of these companies by eyeballs.
This Bitcoin Yield reminds me of that. MSTR’s actual business is irrelevant. Doesn’t make money and revenue is not going anywhere even in articles that tried to attach AI to it. Just ignore that and you get $26B in BTC compared to a $100B+ market cap. Not even counting any dilution coming or debt being added to buy more, their BTC isn’t generating anything. It’s incredible that they can create a metric to solve that huge gap. I applaud them but I will be watching it because it’s a heckuva show. I just don’t have the cahones to buy something I don’t believe in.
