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Stock Thread (39 Viewers)

What are peoples thoughts on AMD in the low 140's? Their P/E looks really high to me, but they are down quite a bit from highs. Not sure if starting a position now would be wise?
 
steelerfan1 said:
What are peoples thoughts on AMD in the low 140's? Their P/E looks really high to me, but they are down quite a bit from highs. Not sure if starting a position now would be wise?
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I think this is a decent level to nibble in. It should have a good 2025.

The forward multiple is 32-33 which if you believe they will carve out a section of the AI chips arm race......is cheap long term. The issue is revenue growth. The earnings are good. It's the growth that has investors concerned.

But if you want to look for another chip maker other than the king NVDA....AMD down here has some upside juice of lets say 35-40 a share more from here which would represent 28% upside over the next 12 months in my estimation. Heyt making 28% in 12 months....I take that everyday to Sunday.
 
Todem said:
steelerfan1 said:
What are peoples thoughts on AMD in the low 140's? Their P/E looks really high to me, but they are down quite a bit from highs. Not sure if starting a position now would be wise?
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I think this is a decent level to nibble in. It should have a good 2025.

The forward multiple is 32-33 which if you believe they will carve out a section of the AI chips arm race......is cheap long term. The issue is revenue growth. The earnings are good. It's the growth that has investors concerned.

But if you want to look for another chip maker other than the king NVDA....AMD down here has some upside juice of lets say 35-40 a share more from here which would represent 28% upside over the next 12 months in my estimation. Heyt making 28% in 12 months....I take that everyday to Sunday.
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Thanks for this.
 
McBokonon said:
General Malaise said:
BROS B4 HOSE
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I'm not sure the collective thread could have timed this one better. :hifive:

$APP up 43.9%. It's up more than my cost basis which I only started in August, 281.67% overall.
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My overall $APP position is up 535% since I bought it in August, blew past $400 a share today. I've already trimmed twice and might have to do it again. This is just bonkers. MSTR and NVDA are value index funds compared to this thing.
 
Thoughts on COIN with the surging crypto market?

Another one of these stupid decisions buying at the the top and then holding only excited to see that I'm back to break even.
 
Sand said:
Good article about corporate products, stock prices, and risks out there, particularly concerning deficit spending. Valuable perspective.

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Our algorithms (or what we follow) seem to be completely different so I appreciate you sharing!

These guys are obviously way smarter than I’ll ever be, but….

How are dividends considered a source of corporate profits? It’s part of investor return, obviously , but I don’t get what they’re saying with “Corporate profits derive from combining investment, government and household savings behaviors, dividends, and trade flows.” The whole article is based on that “equation” so it’s throwing me off.

The other thing that jumped out at me was the consumer spending piece. It makes up like 70% of the economy so that makes sense, if that goes down the economy does as well and profits fall. They say “Remember, in the Kalecki framework, rising household savings represent a direct drag on profits.”. Sure. But meanwhile consumer spending continues to rise, up 3.7% in Q3. And the recent BFCM shopping period shattered records, up 15% from last year (I work in the digital marketing space so can vouch for this!). So we’re just not seeing this.
 
McBokonon said:
McBokonon said:
General Malaise said:
BROS B4 HOSE
Click to expand...
I'm not sure the collective thread could have timed this one better. :hifive:

$APP up 43.9%. It's up more than my cost basis which I only started in August, 281.67% overall.
Click to expand...
My overall $APP position is up 535% since I bought it in August, blew past $400 a share today. I've already trimmed twice and might have to do it again. This is just bonkers. MSTR and NVDA are value index funds compared to this thing.
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I guess I should have kept the 100 shares I got in the IPO. SMH. I broke even but I would have likely sold it since it lost a ton post IPO before this run up.
 
SFBayDuck said:
The other thing that jumped out at me was the consumer spending piece. It makes up like 70% of the economy so that makes sense, if that goes down the economy does as well and profits fall. They say “Remember, in the Kalecki framework, rising household savings represent a direct drag on profits.”. Sure. But meanwhile consumer spending continues to rise, up 3.7% in Q3. And the recent BFCM shopping period shattered records, up 15% from last year (I work in the digital marketing space so can vouch for this!). So we’re just not seeing this.
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I didn't know this until I saw this tweet just now, but consumer discretionary stocks are the best performing sector since August 5th. That sure doesn't signal a struggling consumer, either!
 
General question for the board: When owning individual stocks that have risen, and especially if you're worried about a downturn, do you maintain open stop/loss orders? I never really did that but I'm thinking about setting safety nets across many of my recent winners. I understand that that does not protect against a gap down but short of selling the shares outright, there's not much else to do for downside protection (or I guess you could buy a protective put.) Curious to hear what the board norm is.
 
I've been trimming stocks like $APP that have gone parabolic too fast - wish I had done a bit more of that with things like $SE back in 2021. For stocks have simply methodically gone up because they're consistently executing and the thesis is still there, I don't generally do anything except add on irrational dips. These are retirement accounts, though, so time horizon is way out there.
 
Well, if you are interested, I think MDB will have a nice return soon. Dropped 14% even though it beat everything and raised guidances. I read something about some commentary that wasn’t liked or that excluding some big up front deals they wouldn’t have beaten revenue as much but still would have. Oracle missed on revenue and earnings and is down about half as much.

Makes no sense sometimes but like ZS, which also beat well, MDB will very likely regain what they lost and more. The ironic part is that numbers wise they did well enough that multiple analysts raised their targets to over $400. I don’t have much MDB left as I sold twice when it got over $500 but I’d be tempted to add more as this was a really solid quarter.
 
McBokonon said:
I've been trimming stocks like $APP that have gone parabolic too fast - wish I had done a bit more of that with things like $SE back in 2021. For stocks have simply methodically gone up because they're consistently executing and the thesis is still there, I don't generally do anything except add on irrational dips. These are retirement accounts, though, so time horizon is way out there.
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lol...

SE funded 2 roth contributions, trip to disney, and some nice whiskey for me.
 
Orange&Blue said:
McBokonon said:
I've been trimming stocks like $APP that have gone parabolic too fast - wish I had done a bit more of that with things like $SE back in 2021. For stocks have simply methodically gone up because they're consistently executing and the thesis is still there, I don't generally do anything except add on irrational dips. These are retirement accounts, though, so time horizon is way out there.
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lol...

SE funded 2 roth contributions, trip to disney, and some nice whiskey for me.
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Oh don’t get me wrong - I did GREAT with it. But I could have sold more of it earlier when it became obvious euphoria was rampant and rate hikes were coming.
 
McBokonon said:
Orange&Blue said:
McBokonon said:
I've been trimming stocks like $APP that have gone parabolic too fast - wish I had done a bit more of that with things like $SE back in 2021. For stocks have simply methodically gone up because they're consistently executing and the thesis is still there, I don't generally do anything except add on irrational dips. These are retirement accounts, though, so time horizon is way out there.
Click to expand...
lol...

SE funded 2 roth contributions, trip to disney, and some nice whiskey for me.
Click to expand...

Oh don’t get me wrong - I did GREAT with it. But I could have sold more of it earlier when it became obvious euphoria was rampant and rate hikes were coming.
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I’m still a believer! And still hold all my shares as I was greedy and thought it would never stop climbing. I’ve learned a little since then, that’s why I sold half my NFLX when it doubled (n)
 
Todem said:
guru_007 said:
WMT is one of my biggest positions and I was certainly interested in stepping into TGT as the multiple looked compelling.
But, that quarter was a disaster and lowering guidance, I'm completely out.
Seems to me that WMT and COST are the only two retailers worth getting into and both are too expensive to get into right now.
And I know people love ripping on Cramer both here and the twitters, but he got me into NVDA 5-6 years ago and I'll always be grateful. If I had never trimmed that position, it would be far and away my largest, but, I'm human and stupid.
I'm not sure tonight's earnings call will be all that magnificent. I expect them to say unprecedent demand, and seeing it for the next 2-3 years. But, will skirt the overheating issue. It's really really tough to move a 3.5 trillion dollar stock much higher, imho.
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Yeah this is exactly why this will be a good trade.

This is an easy 20-25% inside 12 months. Target is a different breed than Walmart......Walmart is everything to everyone and heavily into grocery. That's not Target.

Target has stumbled many times in the past and then picked itself right back up.....this is a really easy trade here.
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To anyone who did this, Dec 2025 covered calls can make you around 6% (obv could be more depending on your strike. I set mine higher than I might have.). With the dividend, that's 9-10% to hold for a year and downside protection in case the thesis doesn't play out and you end up being in it longer.
 
US Antimony (UAMY) CEO Gary Evans will be on Fox Business tomorrow at 8:30am ET to chat with Maria Fartonmypillow. Stock has been crazy volatile and is getting noticed by the Reddit community after the Chinese announcement that they would cut antimony (and other metals) to the US. Antimony has several applications, but military is a big one. UAMY has one of the only antimony smelters in operation in the good 'ol US of A.
 
General Malaise said:
US Antimony (UAMY) CEO Gary Evans will be on Fox Business tomorrow at 8:30am ET to chat with Maria Fartonmypillow. Stock has been crazy volatile and is getting noticed by the Reddit community after the Chinese announcement that they would cut antimony (and other metals) to the US. Antimony has several applications, but military is a big one. UAMY has one of the only antimony smelters in operation in the good 'ol US of A.
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:lmao:
 
Adobe is getting slaughtered today after their report. The biggest complaint seems to be that after all this time they still haven't been able to monetize AI nearly enough to justify their investment in it.

As I've mentioned before, from an actual implementation standpoint, Adobe is one of the market leaders. Their product actually uses AI and uses it well, in a way that actually helps the consumer. And it's not even close to enough.

I mentioned a while ago that my concern with the AI hype is that the REAL stuff in AI that will actually show up on the bottom line is a LONG ways off. We're not even close to AI replacing a managerial level employee or any of that nonsense that gets thrown around. So no one is going to see any actual monetary returns in those kind of things for a long time.

So that leaves us with actual consumer facing advantages, which are actually close enough to be in the cards. But very few of them can actually make money, much less enough money to justify the insane costs in spinning it up.

The googles and amazons and metas and apple's basically have unlimited money, so they can keep dumping into it for another 10 years until it actually starts providing returns without it being a big deal. But what about the rest of the companies that don't have money to just light on fire with zero chance of any near term returns? Docusign is up over 100% since they started "implementing AI". What the hell is Docusign going to do with AI to actually make money?
 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Bob Sacamano said:
McBokonon said:
SFBayDuck said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
Buy the dip on Adobe (ADBE)? Down 14% to 490 today while pundit price targets are holding at 640.
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I'm tempted, as 1) they have that creative biz on lock down, so it gives them a "floor", and 2) I think they'll be a beneficiary of AI as they start continue to incorporate and monetize that across their portfolio. But I have recently bought the dips in both the PANW (I'm even) and SNOW (it fell another 10%), and if the tech trade does in fact stall out here there may be opportunities to buy even lower.

tl;dr hell if I know
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Earnings tonight, now trading at $457. Forward P/E of 25. Gotta think expectations are really low, no?
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Probably. This is a company I watched and wanted to own for a long time, finally bought into, made a nice return on, and sold out of. With fairly fortunate timing, actually. I just can't figure out how to play them going forward. If you continue to like the company, I don't know how this isn't a buy point. They're beaten down and they're going to hammer the AI angle on their call. But the potential for AI cannibalization concerns me with them. How does it not lead to fewer licenses needed by end-users and not impact monetization? But on what time horizon does that even potentially happen? No idea how to gauge those things.
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Their AI implementation is pretty impressive and one of the few use cases where it's actually already beneficial to users and not just buzzwords. The problem is that AI is more of a customer retention thing for them than growth. They have to do it to keep their already existing subscribers from jumping ship if someone else does it. I don't think it's really bringing in many new customers.
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I think this exchange is still applicable here.
 
ghostguy123 said:
So CVS at 5 year low.....good buy and hold here?
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I almost chimed in on that one the other day but this isn't really a thread for technicals and I'm not super into them, beyond the basics. I just know I don't like buying stocks that break support levels like CVS. Especially in a good market. I'd rather stay on the sidelines or go elsewhere. I have no problem not nailing a bottom, I'd much rather see signs the ship has finally altered course.

It's not as simple as, well you're getting 5% while you wait.
 
General Malaise said:
US Antimony (UAMY) CEO Gary Evans will be on Fox Business tomorrow at 8:30am ET to chat with Maria Fartonmypillow. Stock has been crazy volatile and is getting noticed by the Reddit community after the Chinese announcement that they would cut antimony (and other metals) to the US. Antimony has several applications, but military is a big one. UAMY has one of the only antimony smelters in operation in the good 'ol US of A.
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In for 3000 after hours at 1.75. Already down to 1.70 lol. Hoping this fox business appearance is a barnburner!
 
Worth noting that MSTR no longer seems to be offering the kind of leveraged gains on BTC like it was in the past. BTC is up 16% this month while MSTR up 10%.

But it's still offering leverged losses on down days.
 
I opted to play FBTC and IBIT for BTC exposure. I felt compelled to put something on after the election and know I'm way way way way way way way late to the crypto party. I still don't understand it. I nod along when I hear 'blockchain' like Homer Simpson listening to nuclear power instructions but damned if I'm going to miss out THIS time! :mellow:
 
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