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I bought some Nvda today but just a partial position. Being below the 200 day gives me some pause to jump in with both feet. The semis can get absolutely decimated at times.
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Or, Jevons Paradox. Which like most people I’d never heard of until today.
 
I'll play and gamble on some NVDL here.

I went full degenerate and bought a few NVDL calls before market close yesterday. I can’t see any way I hang onto them beyond today.

ETA out for a small gain about 5 minutes in. Might try again today or tomorrow when things settle a bit.
 
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Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Or, Jevons Paradox. Which like most people I’d never heard of until today.
I just DeepSeeked that 😂
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Lol yea that’s a big deal out of nowhere.
 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

Deepseek had to stop signups yesterday because they were having problems that they blamed on a cyberattack, but I think might really be a result of them being the Temu of AI.
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Or, Jevons Paradox. Which like most people I’d never heard of until today.
I just DeepSeeked that 😂
Yea...thanks to all the attention I'm trying to do some specific work projects in deepseek today and keep getting "server is busy" and nothing back. Thanks Obama!!
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Or, Jevons Paradox. Which like most people I’d never heard of until today.
I just DeepSeeked that 😂
Yea...thanks to all the attention I'm trying to do some specific work projects in deepseek today and keep getting "server is busy" and nothing back. Thanks Obama!!
I had seen in my search you were working with this thing earlier and were left impressed.
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Lol yea that’s a big deal out of nowhere.
I’m banking on this being way overhyped…as an investor very nervous. I’m not well position for this 😂
 
I'll play and gamble on some NVDL here.

I went full degenerate and bought a few NVDL calls before market close yesterday. I can’t see any way I hang onto them beyond today.

ETA out for a small gain about 5 minutes in. Might try again today or tomorrow when things settle a bit.
There's a reason David Tepper keeps a pair of iron-clad bulls' testicles hanging in his office. This game takes some cajones.
 
Twitter thread from a fintwit guy with a Deepseek 101: https://x.com/morganb/status/1883686162709295541?s=46

I’m definitely not an expert but seems like a good summary of why the blood in the streets. The question I have (and others did in the comments) is what happens when the big boys with deep pockets apply these innovations to their own stuff. One answer is capex could be reduced or redirected to lower cost items. Seems like a bad thing for NVDA and data center types but maybe good for those who use AI to drive efficiency? For example, GOOGL and AMZN aren’t getting clobbered like NVDA and ANET right now (still down.) AMD also not down as much - maybe they’re more of a player if companies realize they don’t need to pay filet mignon prices?

Of course, this could all be nonsense and noise. It’s interesting, though.
Yea idk. I’ve always read nvda is the clear leader here and nobody is even in the same universe as them and then this morning china all of a sudden has a very real competitor out of nowhere? Weird.
But the guy’s point in the posted Twitter thread wasn’t that Nvidia isn’t still top of the heap, it’s that there will be significant less need for their product which was driving their ridiculous growth.
Lol yea that’s a big deal out of nowhere.
I’m banking on this being way overhyped…as an investor very nervous. I’m not well position for this 😂
…same
 
Two things I think to note that could give hope if you're heavy into NVDA/AI.

1) Reading around a lot in AI groups, the consensus seems to be that DeepSeek is 75% as good at 10% of the cost. So bang for the buck, pretty good. But the question is are the big companies doing really complex stuff where the real money is made going to settle for 75% as good, even at a huge discount, if some of their competitors are paying for 100% and leaving them behind.

2) It's China, and all the things that come with that. Right now the news is all positive because it's new. Once things settle down a bit, I could easily see this part of the narrative start taking off. Are companies really going to let their products be driven by a backend that will almost certainly be majorly influenced by pro-China bias.
 
Two things I think to note that could give hope if you're heavy into NVDA/AI.

1) Reading around a lot in AI groups, the consensus seems to be that DeepSeek is 75% as good at 10% of the cost. So bang for the buck, pretty good. But the question is are the big companies doing really complex stuff where the real money is made going to settle for 75% as good, even at a huge discount, if some of their competitors are paying for 100% and leaving them behind.

2) It's China, and all the things that come with that. Right now the news is all positive because it's new. Once things settle down a bit, I could easily see this part of the narrative start taking off. Are companies really going to let their products be driven by a backend that will almost certainly be majorly influenced by pro-China bias.
It's also timing out today a lot....so maybe it's not ready for primetime and maybe they need more servers and chips?
 
So thoughts on Starbucks?


Now sure if it was Niccols idea to charge 35 cents for cream in my over priced $3.95 coffee but that was the nail in the coffin for me.
Taco Bell and Starbucks? I don’t drink coffee but are they planning to charge per bathroom visit to increase sales?
Might as well go for the trifecta and add Charmin to your portfolio.
 
I’ll be buying NVDA this morning.
Not there yet for this and others (CEG) but not sure this is as big a deal as the market seems to. See how it shakes out.
I take anything China says with a grain of salt....
case and point:

 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.
 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.

My understanding is that open source is a misnomer here. It's open model, so they share the process, but the actual code itself is not available (true open source). The two terms do run together a bit when people talk about open source, but I think the difference is relevant here as there's no direct access to the code to know if there is intentional Chinese bias built-in or if the Chinese government has a backdoor to any of the data/operations.
 
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Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.

My understanding is that open source is a misnomer here. It's open model, so they share the process, but the actual code itself is not available (true open source). The two terms do run together a bit when people talk about it, but I think the difference is relevant here as there's no direct access to the code to know if there is intentional Chinese bias built-in or if the Chinese government has a backdoor to any of the data/operations.
Really? I haven't seen that reported.

Regarding the bold, there is a floor cost to create a usable consumer AI. It matters if it is 100x or not.

Definitely big news but we're still in pretty thick fog. Not sure where the leverage in the system is that could turn a correction into a crash.

It is also curious to juxtapose the reactions of the media to DeepSeek vs the TikTok dialouge.
 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.

My understanding is that open source is a misnomer here. It's open model, so they share the process, but the actual code itself is not available (true open source). The two terms do run together a bit when people talk about it, but I think the difference is relevant here as there's no direct access to the code to know if there is intentional Chinese bias built-in or if the Chinese government has a backdoor to any of the data/operations.
Really? I haven't seen that reported.

I honestly could be misunderstanding it. It's a bit over my head.

Here are a couple of good reddit threads on it from geeks that are smarter than me.

 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.

My understanding is that open source is a misnomer here. It's open model, so they share the process, but the actual code itself is not available (true open source). The two terms do run together a bit when people talk about it, but I think the difference is relevant here as there's no direct access to the code to know if there is intentional Chinese bias built-in or if the Chinese government has a backdoor to any of the data/operations.
Really? I haven't seen that reported.

I honestly could be misunderstanding it. It's a bit over my head.

Here are a couple of good reddit threads on it from geeks that are smarter than me.

I work in software, and I may have misused the "open source", but frequently anything that falls under the MIT license is called open source by my coworkers. Pretty much if it falls under MIT license we are free to include it in our own software products that we develop.

There is probably a more technical "open source" definition which also means they release source code so anyone can make their edits, but that is generally not what my coworkers refer to when they use open source.


Sorry, I probably use that term wrong and it was not what i meant.
 
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Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.



Quote below:

That seems impossibly low.

DeepSeek is clear that these costs are only for the final training run, and exclude all other expenses; from the V3 paper:

Lastly, we emphasize again the economical training costs of DeepSeek-V3, summarized in Table 1, achieved through our optimized co-design of algorithms, frameworks, and hardware. During the pre-training stage, training DeepSeek-V3 on each trillion tokens requires only 180K H800 GPU hours, i.e., 3.7 days on our cluster with 2048 H800 GPUs. Consequently, our pre- training stage is completed in less than two months and costs 2664K GPU hours. Combined with 119K GPU hours for the context length extension and 5K GPU hours for post-training, DeepSeek-V3 costs only 2.788M GPU hours for its full training. Assuming the rental price of the H800 GPU is $2 per GPU hour, our total training costs amount to only $5.576M. Note that the aforementioned costs include only the official training of DeepSeek-V3, excluding the costs associated with prior research and ablation experiments on architectures, algorithms, or data.

So no, you can’t replicate DeepSeek the company for $5.576 million.

I still don’t believe that number.

Actually, the burden of proof is on the doubters, at least once you understand the V3 architecture. Remember that bit about DeepSeekMoE: V3 has 671 billion parameters, but only 37 billion parameters in the active expert are computed per token; this equates to 333.3 billion FLOPs of compute per token. Here I should mention another DeepSeek innovation: while parameters were stored with BF16 or FP32 precision, they were reduced to FP8 precision for calculations; 2048 H800 GPUs have a capacity of 3.97 exoflops, i.e. 3.97 billion billion FLOPS. The training set, meanwhile, consisted of 14.8 trillion tokens; once you do all of the math it becomes apparent that 2.8 million H800 hours is sufficient for training V3. Again, this was just the final run, not the total cost, but it’s a plausible number.
 
Strikes me that the media is being a little too credulous on the origins of DeepSeek. I highly doubt it is truly some $5mm side project.

The company deepseek has spent over 500 million on nvidia chips previously for AI training.

However, whether the cost is 5 million or greater, they released their code as open source. This is just as big of news.

My understanding is that open source is a misnomer here. It's open model, so they share the process, but the actual code itself is not available (true open source). The two terms do run together a bit when people talk about it, but I think the difference is relevant here as there's no direct access to the code to know if there is intentional Chinese bias built-in or if the Chinese government has a backdoor to any of the data/operations.
Really? I haven't seen that reported.

I honestly could be misunderstanding it. It's a bit over my head.

Here are a couple of good reddit threads on it from geeks that are smarter than me.

I work in software, and I may have misused the "open source", but frequently anything that falls under the MIT license is called open source by my coworkers. Pretty much if it falls under MIT license we are free to include it in our own software products that we develop.

There is probably a more technical "open source" definition which also means they release source code so anyone can make their edits, but that is generally not what my coworkers refer to when they use open source.


Sorry, I probably use that term wrong and it was not what i meant.
What is the importance of the MIT license? Is it like a certification that the code is truly open source and replicable?
 
What is the importance of the MIT license? Is it like a certification that the code is truly open source and replicable?

As a background i manage a few different applications for a fortune 500 company.

What the MIT license means to me is that I am free to use anything with an MIT license in any of my applications even. I even met with our internal lawyers last year and they reviewed my source code to make sure I was not violating any licenses.

I found the below article through a google search, it may answer your question.

 
Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?
 
Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!
 
Yesterday was deepseek.

Today....Meet Qwen-2.5, from the giant Alibaba.

☑ It can code, write text, search the web.
☑ It can generate images, like Dall-E.
☑ It can even generate videos.
 
Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.
 
Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!

And now NVDA is almost 20% off its ATH due to one of those same Chinese companies that may be lying their arse off.

Thought about that too, a lot smarter people than me looking at that news but I take anything out of China with a huuuuuuge grain of salt.
 
Starbucks’ same-store sales in China, its second-largest market, fell 6%, fueled by a 4% decline in average ticket. The coffee giant has been leaning into discounts in China to compete with rivals that have much lower prices, such as Luckin Coffee.

Is that the same book cookin' Luckin that bent investors over and gave them a *uckin?

Indeed it is. “Cleaned house” and emerged from bankruptcy a few years ago after investors got nothing. I wasn’t in this one but was in some other chinese companies that also cooked their books, never again!
I actually made decent money on Luckin on the bounce in the junior market.

The numbers below sit at the top of my holdings list and remind me every time I log in to never invest in China.

00846L101

AGFEED INDS INC COM


04599D597

ASIA BROADBAND INC $0.001 NEVADA RESTRICTED



92833U202

VISIONCHINA MEDIA
 

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