Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

[fruity pebbles]

Been hearing folks touting the small caps for years, that they are poised to play catch up. They never do. I’ve never invested in a small cap focused ETF.

I wouldn’t invest in an index small cap etf or fund. I want someone who picks companies in that arena.

Agreed, but I prefer a systemic approach rather than stock picking. Look at funds from Dimensional or Avantis if you do want to invest in factors like small cap or value, as they add a quality screen. IWM isn’t the way to get smart exposure in that space, imho.

ETA: Merriman just updated their recommended ETFs page. A good place to start your research. https://www.paulmerriman.com/best-in-class-etf-recommendations-2025

I like AVUV. My favorite is actually VSMIX

 

[BassNBrew]

Just heard a stat that the Russell 2000 is flat over the last 4 years. Really down 30% if you take inflation into account. Not really sure what to make of that other than mega caps are running rampant over the rest of the market.

Part of this is when a Russell stock grows a lot, it leaves the Russell (because it stopped being a small cap) and continues growing in another index so the Russell doesn’t capture the full gains.

The video I was watching mentioned that it was the worst historical 4 year run relative to other indexes so your very solid point should be factored in.

 

[pecorino]

Small caps and broad international funds have just been anchors for a decade.

Funnily enough, I've recently viewed international and emerging markets as areas where I wanted to increase my exposure so I've gone to about 20% international. They're due, right?

 

[pecorino]

Recency bias is strong here in the Stock Thread.

I'd like to hear more about this. I believe the outlook has been informed by the terrible bout of stagflation in the 1970s as well as the change in US policy to isolationism (both economically and politically). Through our history, the US swung from a more globalist stance to isolationism so I do not tie that ideology to one era or one market response. But I do think that at this time in history, isolationism is a losing economic strategy. Anyway, neither stagflation nor isolationism strike me as "recent" so I'm curious what you're referring to.

 

[BassNBrew]

Small caps and broad international funds have just been anchors for a decade.

Funnily enough, I've recently viewed international and emerging markets as areas where I wanted to increase my exposure so I've gone to about 20% international. They're due, right?

As I stated before, the books are likely cooked everywhere but Europe and they only work 6 weeks a year.

 

[steelerfan1]

AND...WE'RE OFF!

 

[NajehHejan]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

 

[BassNBrew]

Added a few more shares of AMD at $99.01.

 

[eighsse2]

My portfolio is nothing but ETFs. Keep it stupid simple.

DIA
SPY
QQQ

Don't plan on adding anything but more of the same. My "get moderately wealthy slow scheme".

 

[SFBayDuck]

Recency bias is strong here in the Stock Thread.

I'd like to hear more about this. I believe the outlook has been informed by the terrible bout of stagflation in the 1970s as well as the change in US policy to isolationism (both economically and politically). Through our history, the US swung from a more globalist stance to isolationism so I do not tie that ideology to one era or one market response. But I do think that at this time in history, isolationism is a losing economic strategy. Anyway, neither stagflation nor isolationism strike me as "recent" so I'm curious what you're referring to.

I was specifically referring to recent comments here about international and small cap stocks.

 

[Sand]

One of those everything down days. I'm going fishing.

 

[General Malaise]

I had the good sense to unload 1/4 of my BROS at $85.18 (which was a gift from heaven) and then got rid of the rest when I was full of panic and sold the rest at $76.25. I think another poster here identified this stock as a good 'trader' early on, not long after its IPO and I think it might just be setting a new ceiling/floor as a rental. I'm watching it to see where it settles. Would imagine BROS tests $60 before it shoots back up again. If I buy again, I'll let you know. I still think it's a long-term winner, but it's got some maturity to go through first and it seems to be volatile when earnings are released.

 

[fruity pebbles]

One of those everything down days. I'm going fishing.

I’m looking at Meta here. Given back the entire run it had.

 

[BassNBrew]

I had the good sense to unload 1/4 of my BROS at $85.18 (which was a gift from heaven) and then got rid of the rest when I was full of panic and sold the rest at $76.25. I think another poster here identified this stock as a good 'trader' early on, not long after its IPO and I think it might just be setting a new ceiling/floor as a rental. I'm watching it to see where it settles. Would imagine BROS tests $60 before it shoots back up again. If I buy again, I'll let you know. I still think it's a long-term winner, but it's got some maturity to go through first and it seems to be volatile when earnings are released.

Congrats. I got cold feet well before that and sold based on something I remember your saying two years ago. Probably would have been wise to read the thread for your updated view before doing that as I would have been buying rather than selling.

 

[BassNBrew]

Establishing a position in Honest here.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Picked up a little Meta at 633 and Amazon at 201

 

[General Malaise]

I had the good sense to unload 1/4 of my BROS at $85.18 (which was a gift from heaven) and then got rid of the rest when I was full of panic and sold the rest at $76.25. I think another poster here identified this stock as a good 'trader' early on, not long after its IPO and I think it might just be setting a new ceiling/floor as a rental. I'm watching it to see where it settles. Would imagine BROS tests $60 before it shoots back up again. If I buy again, I'll let you know. I still think it's a long-term winner, but it's got some maturity to go through first and it seems to be volatile when earnings are released.

Congrats. I got cold feet well before that and sold based on something I remember your saying two years ago. Probably would have been wise to read the thread for your updated view before doing that as I would have been buying rather than selling.

Even despite the recent 'win' in this thing, I think I'm still down overall since its IPO. But it is something I will be buying again. I walk past one twice a day going from the train to work in the morning and back again in the afternoon. This thing is almost always busy with lines of cars on both sides of the coffee hut/shack. The efficiency they move them through with is pretty impressive too. Youngins with iPad looking things going from car to car to get the order in advance, always smiling and looking like they're having fun.

Coffee sucks, but it's not for me.

 

[General Malaise]

Establishing a position in Honest here.

Why? I'm done having kids, man.

 

[beef]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

Are you DCA'ing? I bought at 20 and 19. Ready to DCA when it hits 18's.

 

[BassNBrew]

I had the good sense to unload 1/4 of my BROS at $85.18 (which was a gift from heaven) and then got rid of the rest when I was full of panic and sold the rest at $76.25. I think another poster here identified this stock as a good 'trader' early on, not long after its IPO and I think it might just be setting a new ceiling/floor as a rental. I'm watching it to see where it settles. Would imagine BROS tests $60 before it shoots back up again. If I buy again, I'll let you know. I still think it's a long-term winner, but it's got some maturity to go through first and it seems to be volatile when earnings are released.

Congrats. I got cold feet well before that and sold based on something I remember your saying two years ago. Probably would have been wise to read the thread for your updated view before doing that as I would have been buying rather than selling.

Even despite the recent 'win' in this thing, I think I'm still down overall since its IPO. But it is something I will be buying again. I walk past one twice a day going from the train to work in the morning and back again in the afternoon. This thing is almost always busy with lines of cars on both sides of the coffee hut/shack. The efficiency they move them through with is pretty impressive too. Youngins with iPad looking things going from car to car to get the order in advance, always smiling and looking like they're having fun.

Coffee sucks, but it's not for me.

Probably best way to pick stocks. One of my biggest wins was scooping up Lowes during the during the pandemic in the 60's when the lots were full of people.

 

[McBokonon]

Any updated thoughts on Palantir technologies (PLTR)? Up 43% TD, is it overvalued? On it's way up still? Good or bad buy at current prices?

Sold 20% of what I owned after it jumped 20+% overnight.

Feel a little dumbish now....

I've felt dumb all 3 times I've trimmed $APP and will feel dumb after I do it a 4th time before earnings, too. But I don't want to lose out on gains like I did for a few things after 2021.

Guess who has two thumbs and doesn't feel stupid after all? :thisguy:

I'm completely out of $APP after trimming 5 times before unloading the rest. Cost basis was around $60. I'll watch it, but this one had 2021 vibes all over it. Might be worth looking at it later, but I learned some lessons from that era, I think. In any event, just this trade alone nearly made my year and I now have a ton of money to deploy into the portfolio bedrocks. Sales ranged from 143 to 510. moneybags winning usaflag

 

[fruity pebbles]

Some panic in the streets. One of the CRNAs at work sent out a group wide email just to say he’s lost 40 grand in his 403B over the last two weeks. Don’t think I’ll start a gofundme for him.

 

[General Malaise]

I had the good sense to unload 1/4 of my BROS at $85.18 (which was a gift from heaven) and then got rid of the rest when I was full of panic and sold the rest at $76.25. I think another poster here identified this stock as a good 'trader' early on, not long after its IPO and I think it might just be setting a new ceiling/floor as a rental. I'm watching it to see where it settles. Would imagine BROS tests $60 before it shoots back up again. If I buy again, I'll let you know. I still think it's a long-term winner, but it's got some maturity to go through first and it seems to be volatile when earnings are released.

Congrats. I got cold feet well before that and sold based on something I remember your saying two years ago. Probably would have been wise to read the thread for your updated view before doing that as I would have been buying rather than selling.

Even despite the recent 'win' in this thing, I think I'm still down overall since its IPO. But it is something I will be buying again. I walk past one twice a day going from the train to work in the morning and back again in the afternoon. This thing is almost always busy with lines of cars on both sides of the coffee hut/shack. The efficiency they move them through with is pretty impressive too. Youngins with iPad looking things going from car to car to get the order in advance, always smiling and looking like they're having fun.

Coffee sucks, but it's not for me.

Probably best way to pick stocks. One of my biggest wins was scooping up Lowes during the during the pandemic in the 60's when the lots were full of people.

Ha! I did the same thing with Mobile Mini (now Willscot Holdings - WSC) as I saw their shipping/storage containers all over the place (Targets, Walmarts, etc) as retailers had too much inventory and had to stockpile it.

 

[NajehHejan]

Back in SOXL @ 20.02

Hoping to sell later today at 22.02 for 10% (IRA tax-free) gain

Are you DCA'ing? I bought at 20 and 19. Ready to DCA when it hits 18's.

Dang - I got greedy here - had I set my gain for 5% like the other day, instead of 10%, it looks like it may have just hit. I will DCA at 18 but not 19. This market is in bad shape.

 

[Schmeabs]

AVGO reporting at close today. Adding some at $180. I think it will be 50% higher a year or 2 from now

 

[dancingbones]

MDB down 24% today - feels good to buy something

 

[BassNBrew]

Looks like I'm back int he AXON game at selling at $704 3 weeks ago. Limit buy tripped at $501.

 

[BassNBrew]

And Mexico tariffs paused again.

 

[The_Man]

And Mexico tariffs paused again.

Yeah but it looks like the "Whoops, just kidding about those tariffs" ploy isn't bringing the market back this time

 

[Bob Sacamano]

AXON ANNOUNCES PRICING OF UPSIZED OFFERING OF $1,000.0 MILLION OF 6.125% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2030 AND $750.0 MILLION OF 6.250% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2033


Is there any practical way to get one's hands on these?

 

[Desert_Power]

AXON ANNOUNCES PRICING OF UPSIZED OFFERING OF $1,000.0 MILLION OF 6.125% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2030 AND $750.0 MILLION OF 6.250% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2033


Is there any practical way to get one's hands on these?

You'd have to see if your broker gets some in their inventory I think.

Smart to take advantage of very tight credit spreads.

 

[Klimtology]

I think I'm going ALL CASH tonight.

Anyone else think we're headed for a recession with this America First strategy?

 

[Sand]

I think I'm going ALL CASH tonight.

Anyone else think we're headed for a recession with this America First strategy?

I ask this in all seriousness.

Are you LHUCKS?

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m going 100% stocks tonight

 

[Ridgeback]

I think I'm going ALL CASH tonight.

Anyone else think we're headed for a recession with this America First strategy?

Absolutely, but we aren't allowed to comment on that. We'll get demerits.

 

[Schmeabs]

I’m going 100% stocks tonight

Bat signal activated

 

[SFBayDuck]

I'm going 1/3 Gold, 1/3 Fartcoin, and 1/3 wheat pennies.

Is there a 3x wheat pennies any of you de-gens know of?

 

[The_Man]

Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)

And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?

Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.

I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.

I moved about 50% to a Money Market a couple of days before the first so-called Tariffs were supposed to hit (S&P was at 6068). Short-term, I might put some back in after a Budget Deal is struck between the House and Senate but I expect a lot of turmoil and foolishness before that eventually happens.

Still making my monthly contributions into an S&P Index Fund though might change it to an S&P equal weight index fund. If I miss out on some gains with the 50% I've parked, I can live with it way more than how I'll feel watching things go off the rails (like I think they will) and having done nothing about it

The question of how / when to get back in is a very good one that I certainly don't know the answer to @SFBayDuck

I just went ahead and put one-quarter of the money I pulled out in January (in other words, 12.5% of my total balance) back in to my usual S&P index fund. Not trying to time a top or bottom, just trying to shield funds from what I think will be an overall downward trend for the time being - so putting a chunk back in after shielding it from a 4% drop seems like the kind of sensible win I'm happy with

(and I want to get this on the record, as some kind of accountability tends to help me make more reasonable decisions)

Putting another 5% back in tonight, so now I've put back 30% of the money I took out a couple of days before the first time the tariffs were supposed to hit in late January. Tempted to put even more back but keep reminding myself to wait to see how the federal budget talks play out (which, along with the tariffs is a big part of why I moved so much of my account to cash to begin with)

I know the market is actually up about half the time during a shutdown but I think this one has the potential to be far longer and more disruptive than past occurrences

 

[Capella]

I’m going 100% stocks tonight

same as every day

 

[culdeus]

Tarrfis are cancelled. We get rich tomorrow again or what

 

[pecorino]

SPY down roughly 7% off its high from just two weeks ago. Nasdaq in correction territory. I’ll be a buyer on Friday but only quarter positions.

 

[Desert_Power]

Tarrfis are cancelled. We get rich tomorrow again or what

I think the market will realize the government is about to shut down again soon.

 

[culdeus]

SPY down roughly 7% off its high from just two weeks ago. Nasdaq in correction territory. I’ll be a buyer on Friday but only quarter positions.

I thought fbgs buy wheat pennies

 

[SFBayDuck]

Tarrfis are cancelled. We get rich tomorrow again or what

I think the market will realize the government is about to shut down again soon.

Markets no like the yo-yo action of on again, off again proposals. This level of uncertainty is just not a positive for most equities.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think I'm going ALL CASH tonight.

Anyone else think we're headed for a recession with this America First strategy?

Absolutely, but we aren't allowed to comment on that. We'll get demerits.

Paddling GIF - Paddling - Discover & Share GIFs

Click to view the GIF

tenor.com

 

[NajehHejan]

Spidey sense telling me oil prices will go up soon.

Just scooped up some GUSH after hours at 22.62. It’s the 2x bull ETF. I think the corresponding 2x bear ETF DRIP has had its run for now.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Tarrfis are cancelled. We get rich tomorrow again or what

I think the market will realize the government is about to shut down again soon.

Markets no like the yo-yo action of on again, off again proposals. This level of uncertainty is just not a positive for most equities.

Exactly. Think they’d be fine one way or the other but this back and forth garbage is no bueno.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Semis might run tomorrow

 

[Redwes25]

AXON ANNOUNCES PRICING OF UPSIZED OFFERING OF $1,000.0 MILLION OF 6.125% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2030 AND $750.0 MILLION OF 6.250% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2033


Is there any practical way to get one's hands on these?

No - looks like issued under rule 144a so individuals cannot buy them. Need to be a QIB.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think I'm going ALL CASH tonight.

Anyone else think we're headed for a recession with this America First strategy?

Everybody Wang Chung tonight.