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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I am tempted to deploy some cash today, but I just don't see any short term upside catalysts - only downside - nothing positive on the horizon
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
When is the next fed meeting? Any hint of them re-considering being more aggressive with lowering interest rates if they have the same recession fears that the market does could potentially turn things around pretty quickly.
General Malaise
Footballguy
VRTX single handedly keeping this from being abject disaster for me. 
Selling exhaustion? Or maybe the government figures things out and doesn't shut down / gets clear on tariffs?
General Malaise
Footballguy
According to internet: March 19/20 with release on April 10.
Todem
Footballguy
I would……
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Thank you. Went half NVidia and half AMD.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Disney is only down 10% during this selloff and seems just as vulnerable to major struggles during a recession as the tech stuff that's down 20%+.
I love Disney the company but am selling a lot of mine with plans to rotate into these things that are down more and with more upside on a bounce back. Only thing slowing me down is that I still think a lot of these tech names have plenty of downside to go.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Why AMD? I liked it when it was much cheaper than the rest but with everything down, it looks like temu Nvidia to me.
Todem
Footballguy
I would have went all NVDA....AMD is a dead fish to me....not in the same class. Been outta AMD a while.
Todem
Footballguy
Clarity....which won't come for a little bit.
Like I have been saying it will be a choppy market for a little bit here.
If you are along term investor I really would not be getting extremely concerned at all.
I am not getting political in here at all but if you allow your emotional thoughts on politics and political directions and political decisions shift your investment decisions long term....you will lose money, and simply make foolish decisions.
That's all I am going to say on the topic.
Sentiment and headline risk is driving this market to the extremes right now......that all equals long term opportunity to me. When you hear the media tossing around the R word with absoltely no hardcore economic data to back up that "sentiment".....yeah....self fulfilling prophecy.
How many times do we see this in market cycles?
Yeah.....all the time.
I am nibbling on high quality names starting tomorrow..........I still think there is absolutely more pain ahead due to market cap weightings, greed, and weak stomachs. The froth is almost off folks. Not all the way there....but we are nearing a bottom soon.
The Nasdaq is down over 13% from it's all time high. another 10% can easily rip off inside a week.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
They have some very competitive products coming out this year and have accelerated the delivery schedule. Here's a look at what's on the horizon. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/amd-launches-mi325x-ai-chip-to-rival-nvidias-blackwell-.html
IMO Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are heavily incentivized to have another source for chips. My background was in the electrical connector industry and I'm very familiar with the big names doing whatever necessary to not be locked into a single supplier.
You're looking at 21 PE this year and 15 the following year. That's more attractive than most grocery stores and utility companies.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Just went all cash.
lost $3400 today.
Had so swallow hard on that one!
lost $3400 today.
Had so swallow hard on that one!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Not to make light of anyone feeling pain, but this is shaping up as the second coming of the Corona downturn. Fingers crossed this keeps happening and I might be able to retire before 70.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I would urge you to go back and read the posts in this thread from March 2020 to the end of that year.
Klimtology
Footballguy
I might be able to actually fall asleep tonight.
Klimtology
Footballguy
I don't have the stomach for it.
Capella
Footballguy
To be clear, I am buying nvda and amz still. I did well in March of 2020 and I agree this seems similar.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Now I'll get back in the Money Market with a safe 5%
Desert_Power
Footballguy
What makes you say the bold?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Seems like you need to find a nice target date fund and forget about it.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Don’t understand why it has to be all or nothing for you.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
What's to stomach?
S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart
Interactive chart of the S&P 500 stock market index since 1927. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.
www.macrotrends.net
A hundred year history says you'll be the guy on the right.
Stock Market Returns by Decade
Graphs of stock and bond returns by decade from 1930 - present, based on three different asset allocations (100% stocks, 50/50 each, and 100% bonds). The returns are often widely different from the average.
www.wealthmeta.com
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I'd change that from target to index fund.
culdeus
Footballguy
What hit bad after hours? Seems flat ish broad market wise.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
And forget your password. I’m not sure how old you are and what your allocation is, but why not just go 50/50 and let it be?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yeah, but that sweet dividend is coming.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
up movi
But, my plan for my retirement account is to stay 100% equities right up until the day I retire. I am doing this with the understanding that I might have to work an extra year if my planned retirement happens to come at a down time in the market.
I may even stay 100% equities DURING retirement as well. I've heard both sides of that one, so not sure yet.
All that said, yeah, I'd definitely still be feeling the stomach butterflies if I was looking at retirement soon right now, so, good luck and grab a bottle of tums.
I dont know jack, so take this with a grain of salt.
But, my plan for my retirement account is to stay 100% equities right up until the day I retire. I am doing this with the understanding that I might have to work an extra year if my planned retirement happens to come at a down time in the market.
I may even stay 100% equities DURING retirement as well. I've heard both sides of that one, so not sure yet.
All that said, yeah, I'd definitely still be feeling the stomach butterflies if I was looking at retirement soon right now, so, good luck and grab a bottle of tums.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
i don't know jack either, and pushing 58 years old. I'm 90/10. my step mother is 86 and still 100% equities. I'm looking at 4 more years of work and think I'll still be at this. if we have another 10% correction, I can also see myself putting the 10% BND into VTI as well. I could regret where i am now, but maybe not. Again, i don't know anything.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If we're looking for a catalyst that might turn things around, it seems like quite a few companies have used this selloff as an excuse to lower guidance, and several other large companies had already guided low. So we may be going into the next earnings season with pretty low expectations on a lot of companies where a merely modest report could actually beat expectations pretty heavily, whereas recently it took an outrageously good report for anyone to notice.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This is a very poor idea. Ideally, you would ratchet up bond/safe asset exposure pre-retirement and then decrease afterwards.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
To play it safe sure, but I dont want to play it safe. I'm fully prepared to ride out some extra time working if need be. I've gone over the pros and cons of doing it both ways and talked to people who have done it both ways.
However, lets say I'm like 3-4 years from my projected retirement and the market has gone crazy for a while and is at all time highs. Sure, I can see re-allocating at that point.
I guess it just depends, but the plan is 100% equities till at LEAST a few years from projected retirement. If at that point we are sitting at 10-15% below all time highs, I'm just leaving it.
The decision making might also be impacted by how much I actually have, and what (if anything) i'm getting from social security.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The only good bond is one that gets me out of jail.If nothing else this dip has gotten me back to my 70/30 allocation, which I had a hard time keeping the bond side up as equities were going nutso.
That's good, right?
This James Bond slander will not stand!The only good bond is one that gets me out of jail.If nothing else this dip has gotten me back to my 70/30 allocation, which I had a hard time keeping the bond side up as equities were going nutso.
That's good, right?
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
So let’s say you followed Buffett and sold in December and holding about 40% cash right now … what is your strategy? Hold a few more days/weeks? Grab some targeted blue chips stocks? Other?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Dribble in on every down turn. Buffett followed me and I was at 40%. I have spent 25% of that 40%. Every 1% the NASDAQ is down, I'm spending 2.5% of my cash. I'll 100% back in at a 40% drop.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I once attended a lecture where Buffett was the guest speaker.
Biggest takeaway was, if you did your homework, investing was like being a good hitter at the plate in baseball
The vast majority of pitches obviously look the size of baseballs, but then every once in a while one floats across the plate and looks the size of a beach ball.
That's when you swing
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There's a world in which I'm 4ish years out. I've been actively derisking around the edges for a bit now, but I've been keeping core holdings (AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, MELI, etc) for the most part and moving into things I never would have given serious consideration in the past (REITs, preferreds, LYB, muni funds). Have been hitting NTRSO a bit since it's been sub-$21, as it pays about 5.85% right now and retains 20-25% upside if rates come back down again. Hoping I have a difficult 20% sell decision to make at some point. It's not for everyone. It's a name most won't know. But if they run into financial issues, we all likely have bigger concerns.
All that is to say, I'm still largely equity focused. Mostly because I'm comfortable with equities. I've spent my entire investing life basically ignoring bonds. But if I could get a few l-t corp bonds that looked appealing around 6%, I'd be a fool not to at least consider them. imo. Finding such an animal...
I followed Warren and have deployed about half of my idle cash yesterday and today. I had also bought SPY puts which are now almost all sold--only kept a couple. I like and bought (or added to) QQQ, GOOG, LMT, MRNA, JPM, ADX.
SPY hitting correction territory now in the low 550s. I'll be holding the remaining bit of cash until / unless it drops another 5% or so. Which will be, like, Thursday...
Have you seen GOOG lately?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
SP500 hit the 10% correction mark intra day and rocketed off of it.
