Algos, I assume?
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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
More than likely plus the drop is pretty exhausted.
General Malaise
Footballguy
There is a *LOT* of cash sitting around ready to be deployed and it feels like some of these darling stocks are on sale right now.....
NajehHejan
Footballguy
@Todem (and others) I’d love to hear which of the mag 7’s you think carries the lowest risk. Not necessarily the highest stock price upside, but the lowest risk. With these stocks a bit on sale, trying to gauge future risk
My unqualified opinion – scale of 1 to 5 – with 5 being the most risky
Won’t touch Tesla with a ten foot pole – too much boycott risk and competition from China / cheaper alternatives. I give it a 5
Google – the antitrust stuff spooks me – new admin is amending the case, but not throwing it out completely. Govt so far still wants them to break up their browser business. I give it a 4
Nvidia – AI threats from Deep Seek and others are real, but should still be the top dog. Too high expectations. I give it a 3
Apple – customer loyalty but no recent innovation – just product refreshes – China tariff concerns? I give it a 3
Microsoft – I honestly don’t know too much about their risks – I know they may be viewed as behind the 8 ball with AI – still a software monopoly. I give it a 3
Amazon – boycott risk due to Bezos backlash, but market dominance – also strong cloud services. I give it a 2
Meta – I don’t see many short term risks/threats – would gander giving them a 2 as well. Facebook and Instagram should continue to be strong. AI potential as well
So I guess I’m leaning Amazon or Meta with regards to less risk. Other thoughts?
My unqualified opinion – scale of 1 to 5 – with 5 being the most risky
Won’t touch Tesla with a ten foot pole – too much boycott risk and competition from China / cheaper alternatives. I give it a 5
Google – the antitrust stuff spooks me – new admin is amending the case, but not throwing it out completely. Govt so far still wants them to break up their browser business. I give it a 4
Nvidia – AI threats from Deep Seek and others are real, but should still be the top dog. Too high expectations. I give it a 3
Apple – customer loyalty but no recent innovation – just product refreshes – China tariff concerns? I give it a 3
Microsoft – I honestly don’t know too much about their risks – I know they may be viewed as behind the 8 ball with AI – still a software monopoly. I give it a 3
Amazon – boycott risk due to Bezos backlash, but market dominance – also strong cloud services. I give it a 2
Meta – I don’t see many short term risks/threats – would gander giving them a 2 as well. Facebook and Instagram should continue to be strong. AI potential as well
So I guess I’m leaning Amazon or Meta with regards to less risk. Other thoughts?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
AMZN and MSFT seem the most safe fundamentally. AAPL just because of the brand loyalty. They haven't introduced anything interesting in ages but people just keep buying because of the name. I think those 3 are way ahed of the others if we're talking about the least amount of risk.
GOOGL fundamentals are good but beyond even the antitrust stuff, I think the search issues are being downplayed. That's their whole business and people are starting to get sick of it with the insane amount of ads they've added to search. Even more concerning to me is that I wonder how much longer search will even be relevant anymore. 90% of my google searches are better answered by an LLM.
Asking ChatGPT is a much faster and nicer experience than searching google, usually appending "reddit" to the end of the search, and sifting through that. How long before the LLMs capitalize on that, market it, and search uses overall drop dramatically? And Google's own LLM sucks donkey nads. Which brings up another point, that people have always given Google a benefit of the doubt because they have so much "data". But if they can't leverage that data to create even a top 5 product in the most data intensive sub industry ever created, why should we have any confidence that they can use that data in any meaningful way?
META I don't see how the risk can only be a 2 when we're not even three years removed from the last time that stock dropped 80%. One quarter of negative user growth and everyone jumps ship and starts talking about how it's only relevant to dying boomers and has no future again. Excluding the obvious TSLA, this is the one of the others that I would be LEAST surprised if it's no longer a top 100 company by market cap 5 years from now.
NVDA still seems risky as heck to me. Lots of upside, but beyond China hinting that maybe AI won't always be so processor intensive, there remains the huge risk that companies will start abandoning AI one day as most have yet to even come close to getting any actual return on their investment, and most don't even have anything in sight that would change that.
TSLA obviously the most risky by far.
GOOGL fundamentals are good but beyond even the antitrust stuff, I think the search issues are being downplayed. That's their whole business and people are starting to get sick of it with the insane amount of ads they've added to search. Even more concerning to me is that I wonder how much longer search will even be relevant anymore. 90% of my google searches are better answered by an LLM.
Asking ChatGPT is a much faster and nicer experience than searching google, usually appending "reddit" to the end of the search, and sifting through that. How long before the LLMs capitalize on that, market it, and search uses overall drop dramatically? And Google's own LLM sucks donkey nads. Which brings up another point, that people have always given Google a benefit of the doubt because they have so much "data". But if they can't leverage that data to create even a top 5 product in the most data intensive sub industry ever created, why should we have any confidence that they can use that data in any meaningful way?
META I don't see how the risk can only be a 2 when we're not even three years removed from the last time that stock dropped 80%. One quarter of negative user growth and everyone jumps ship and starts talking about how it's only relevant to dying boomers and has no future again. Excluding the obvious TSLA, this is the one of the others that I would be LEAST surprised if it's no longer a top 100 company by market cap 5 years from now.
NVDA still seems risky as heck to me. Lots of upside, but beyond China hinting that maybe AI won't always be so processor intensive, there remains the huge risk that companies will start abandoning AI one day as most have yet to even come close to getting any actual return on their investment, and most don't even have anything in sight that would change that.
TSLA obviously the most risky by far.
jwb
Footballguy
I bought some AMZN yesterday as a "safe" play. Out of all of them, I see them as the most ingrained with... everything, really. Also, Bezos isn't as prolific or as involved as Musk. I don't see as much personality risk there.
Redwes25
Footballguy
nvdia (forward PE is suprisingly around 20 or so), META and Microsoft are the ones I like the best of the group. Tesla I would not touch even before this boycott stuff. Numbers have been bad recently and feels like price is based around Robotaxi hype which they haven't even launched yet. Waymo (Google's version) has been out in a few markets for a couple of years so they are already behind the curve.
Klimtology
Footballguy
This is not good for my mental health.
I thought you went all cash?This is not good for my mental health.
Klimtology
Footballguy
I did.I thought you went all cash?This is not good for my mental health.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I think most of the mag 7 are pretty safe at these levels.
Google has the antitrust stuff but also a forward PE of 17, below the market as a whole
Microsoft to me is the “safest” of the group when the business model and valuation are factored in
Nvidia has recently had a forward PE of 23 which tells me the market is a little concerned about the E in that number. Semis are historically cyclical, although I think we’re still a ways off a downturn in their business
Amazon is probably second safest of the bunch imo. Crazy time when the forward PE of Amazon is less than the forward PE of Walmart
Tesla no interest at all. Could drop another 50% and still be expensive imo
Apple I’m avoiding as well compared to the others. Still seems comparatively expensive given their growth and risk in the consumer market.
Meta I think is hitting on all cylinders right now and is the best “buy” of the group at these prices.
Google has the antitrust stuff but also a forward PE of 17, below the market as a whole
Microsoft to me is the “safest” of the group when the business model and valuation are factored in
Nvidia has recently had a forward PE of 23 which tells me the market is a little concerned about the E in that number. Semis are historically cyclical, although I think we’re still a ways off a downturn in their business
Amazon is probably second safest of the bunch imo. Crazy time when the forward PE of Amazon is less than the forward PE of Walmart
Tesla no interest at all. Could drop another 50% and still be expensive imo
Apple I’m avoiding as well compared to the others. Still seems comparatively expensive given their growth and risk in the consumer market.
Meta I think is hitting on all cylinders right now and is the best “buy” of the group at these prices.
Todem
Footballguy
MSFT
NVDA
AMZN
Top 3
I like Meta a lot too but it got expensive I would wait for further softness especially if advertising dollars show some potential weakness.
AAPL is getting attractive again but I would also wait for some further weakness.
TSLA will be a trade if drops under $200
NVDA
AMZN
Top 3
I like Meta a lot too but it got expensive I would wait for further softness especially if advertising dollars show some potential weakness.
AAPL is getting attractive again but I would also wait for some further weakness.
TSLA will be a trade if drops under $200
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Google?
Todem
Footballguy
I also like GOOGL….it’s not expensive.
Bossman
Footballguy
... aaaand we missed it again?... aaaaaand we missed it again.
I think that was it. We're back baby!
dancingbones
Footballguy
Tariffs stonks go down
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The market is not digesting good news as good news. For stocks to go up and stay up, people need to feel comfortable placing their money in the markets. Lots of people are worried about their job security, they are worried about staying liquid enough if there is a slowdown in the economy, the fast actions and political shocks of the current administration (I want to make clear that I’m not criticizing the administration, it’s just a fact that they are fast acting) might create some hesitation for some people to put their money back in the market and park it there. Look at the crypto (namely bitcoin market). That’s an asset that goes up in value aggressively when people prefer it to cash. A week or so ago, it was announced that our government was going to start a bitcoin reserve. This would normally skyrocket the price of it—and instead the price dropped from nearly $98k to like the low 80k’s. When you see that kind of regression in price—that just shows that some people that were holding bitcoin chose to sell some and went back to cash. Even if the market bounced today, I don’t know if it wouldn’t just give it back tomorrow. I just don’t see a short term scenario where this market can gain any sort of momentum. There will be a lot of choppiness and I think we’re looking more at a traders market than an investing market for the near term.
Bossman
Footballguy
My opinion ... I think this is going to be another "fake" recession. Most people in the stock market still have money to invest and are not hurting.
Most businesses are NOT closing and most people are NOT losing their jobs. Most people still have job security and are making money.
Right now people are pulling back and holding cash ... ready to jump back in when the waters are safe (which I think is what many of my FBG brethren are up to).
This isn't a true recession where people in the stock market need to pull money out to pay bills and that money isn't coming back. Maybe some people but not most.
Stonks are on sale and smart people are buying low right now.
Just my opinion / perception. #donthateme
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
We don’t disagree on a lot of things. I do think that a lot more people are worried about their job security than you are giving credit for though. Most people aren’t going to lose their jobs—as that would mean a 50%+ unemployment rate. Anything above 5% is considered high and I think we could easily see and surpass that. I also think that well more than 1 out of 20 people do worry about their employment. I think it might be closer to 1 in 8 or 1 in 10. I am of the belief that things are going to be and feel uncomfortable until a few months before the midterms (so in the 6 month-1 year timeline). From the mid-terms on—I think there will be greener economic and market pastures. I am not predicting a recession, but I do think that it’s possibly that we do fall into a short (but potentially sharp) one. If somebody has a 5+ year horizon on their investments—I think you can buy at pretty much anytime and have a high level of confidence that they go higher than what you paid. The stock market is set up/rigged to almost guarantee that long term—you will be net positive. I personally just don’t feel like the drops we had are some sort of FOMO moments where I need to rush to put my money back into the markets because they are not likely to be at these levels for long. I think the markets will be challenged for the next few months and I’d rather hang onto some liquidity until there is more clarity. There are safe accounts where you can make 3.5+% interest and I don’t think that those are a bad option while I wait to re-deploy at a time when the market is less turbulent. In the short term, I think there is a much higher probability that the market tumbles versus it skyrocketing. Keep in mind—I still have exposure to the market—I’ve just sold off some stuff the past few months (nothing super recent) because I felt like I was over-exposed.
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm naive and don't closely follow news / politics so please don't take this as anything more than curiosity and an honest question ...
Who are the "1 in 10" that you feel are worried about their employment?
The Duff Man
Footballguy
My opinion only, a few that come to mind:
Government workers
People whose companies rely on foreign supply chains that may be subject to tariffs (companies scale back spending to eat the cost or increase price which may affect volume)
People whose company relies on exports and will now deal with boycotts in other countries
People in service industries like tourism that rely on foreign tourists
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Being that I’m from Southern California with properties in Nevada—I can tell you that small businesses are closing like crazy here in California. Tech companies are laying people off, a lot of marketing people for tech companies and real estate companies are being laid off and replaced with AI. I worked in jewelry for 29 years—and I know several jewelers that are shutting their doors or reducing staff. In Vegas, a lot of the hotels are eliminating staff—Excalibur just did a huge round of layoffs. One of my tenants in my vegas properties was a bellman at the MGM—-he just got laid off. Just look at consumer spending. That’s dropped. People reduce their spending when they either aren’t making as much or are fearful of economic distress. This administration needs a temporary rise in unemployment to achieve their goals. Any government worker or anybody that works for a company that provides a service or a product to the government (parts of government defense projects, solar companies that were getting funding from the government…etc) is also feeling trepidation about their employment.
Bossman
Footballguy
Fair enough.
I know Vegas has been hurting for a couple years now either due to economy or possibly just people finding other places to gamble / bet on sports.
... like on their phone #draftkings #fandual.
I also hear stories of Vegas hotels gouging guests and souring customers. $12 for a bottle of generic water from the in-room mini fridge and such. (I try and stay far away from the mini fridge).
AI is happening, I can see some losing jobs to that. Unfortunately this is inevitable as we become more technologically advanced.
Here in the Northeast everything is still going pretty well. Fuel prices are down, construction is cranking, restaurants and bars are still busy, ... consumer spending may be down I suppose but I think it would be due to "fear of economic distress" not because people are making less money.
Obviously there's always people worried about their employment but there's still plenty of jobs to be had here (depending on your field of course).
Fellow business owners that I speak to are still complaining that there's not enough good help to be hired.
I'd guess the people worried about employment here would be SOME Federal employees, recipients of federal grants, AI related, and maybe some export related businesses. Us regular working folk are still financially healthy. Stonks will go up ... eventually. #rosecoloredglasshalffull
Agreed. We have an entire thread on Las Vegas challenges. I think some (much) of that is self inflicted. And certainly, some areas of the country are doing better or worse than others.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Boy do I feel dumb.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
We don’t need to guess what consumers are thinking, there is data to reflect that in the aggregate. This is key to avoiding anecdotal evidence and personal bias.
Consumer confidence survey data
Consumer confidence survey data
Klimtology
Footballguy
Talk me down from the ledge.
Please
Please
General Malaise
Footballguy
You are sitting on cash, right? That's not a bad place to be. At all.
APPL is still on sale if you're looking to jump in.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I did several days ago.
Good sign for the market. Negative Consumer sentiment is a contrarian bull sign. When only 19% of investors see the market positive in 6 months the average return over the next 12 months is 15%.
Klimtology
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
What did you do. I remember you posting but not specifics.
If you are on the ledge because of a 1% swing then the market probably isn't a good fit for you. I am guessing this is just schtick though.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
freak out a lot
BassNBrew
Footballguy
No, buy posting the historical return of the stock market by decade for the last 100 years.
Like most everyone has said, stay invested in stocks long term and use these dips to buy. Already up 8% on the Nvadia discounted two days ago.
Klimtology
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’m convinced he’s trolling
Klimtology
Footballguy
I am not.
Bossman
Footballguy
yikes ...
"You only lose if you sell" ... is what I tell myself.
Many feel the worst is yet to come so you may be able to get back in at a discount.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
The problem with the "buy the dip" approach is that only works in an uptrend.
At the market level at least, the S&P has closed the last three days below its 200 DMA.
So buying the dip now could just as easily become "catching a falling knife" if the pattern doesn't reverse fairly soon
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Next year when my AMD shares are at $200 it will be more important that I added them rather than if I got them at $80, $90, or $100.
Buy the dip always works because the market is on a permanent uptrend.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I always thought a falling knife was more about chasing laggard stocks than the market as a whole.
