Stoneworker
Footballguy
It means buying assets after a rapid fall in price prior to those assets finding firm support underneath
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (69 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I agree for the most part. I think most of the pros like @Todem and even other guys like Buffet tend to take profits on exuberance and buy when things are on sale. The timing strategy is used on 5-35% of the portfolio with the rest being long.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’ll admit I time some but it’s mostly risk tolerance for me. I’m never more than 65-70% stocks and never lower than 40-45% based on how expensive things are and how bullish/bearish the market in general is. I lose some on the way up but it keeps me in the market on the way down. I’ve been buying quite a bit the last couple days, I was on the lighter side of my range.
Last edited:
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bah. Apparently I do have a filter. Even if delayed
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
But that was funny, dammit
Sand
Footballguy
Long term average U3 unemployment is 5.6%. We've been spoiled lately.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
We’ll see. I’m certainly no doom and gloomer by any means. I think we are going through some temporary turmoil in order to get to a place that is far better for the markets and economy. The thing that I don’t like or trust about the numbers is that a lot of them (consumer spending, unemployment..etc) are lagging indicators. Being in close proximity to markets that are directly tied to discretionary income and spending (jewelry in LA/Cali—which along with New York is the jewelry hub of the United States) and Vegas—I can tell you that peoples spending habits are changing. Major airlines have already announced that they are reducing capacity, and there are reports that indicate that international flights to the United States have seen a decline of up to 22%. The 75k+ government employees that accepted the ability to walk away from their jobs are getting paid until August—so they won’t be reflected on any job reports until then. With all of this said—I do want to make completely clear my position. I am very bullish on our economy somewhere in the mid to long term. I just believe that we have been spoiled with a market that has been largely propelled and held up by government spending, government action, a lot of momentum, and a lot of promise and spending into artificial intelligence . I think that in the next few months, we will temporarily see how our markets will look without a lot of these things going for it.
Penguin
Footballguy
From Henrik Zeberg...
He feels the pullback will end in the next 10 days or so, then due to all the liquidity the final blow off the top run will start ending in the worst recession since 1929
Great video here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_TBttTftZM Well worth the 54 minute listen
I've been following Henrik for around 4 years and he's always been spot on
Single/Double & Triple ETF;s vs. the index's for the ride up and the crash...
S&P 500 Longs
————————
$SPY 1X Long
SPUU 2X Long
$SPXL 3X Long
S&P 500 Shorts
————————
$SPYD 1X Short
$SDS 2X Short
$SPXU 3X Short
NASDAQ Longs
————————
$QQQ (1X Long)
$QLD (2X Long)
$TQQQ (3X Long)
NASDAQ Shorts
————————
$PSQ. (1X Short)
$QID ( 2X Short)
$SQQQ (3X Short)
DOW Jones Longs
————————-
$SPDR (1X Long)
$DDM (2X Long)
$UDOW 3X Long)
DOW Jones Shorts
—————————
$DOG (1X Short)
$DXD (2X Short)
$SDOW (3X Short)
He feels the pullback will end in the next 10 days or so, then due to all the liquidity the final blow off the top run will start ending in the worst recession since 1929
Great video here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_TBttTftZM Well worth the 54 minute listen
I've been following Henrik for around 4 years and he's always been spot on
Single/Double & Triple ETF;s vs. the index's for the ride up and the crash...
S&P 500 Longs
————————
$SPY 1X Long
SPUU 2X Long
$SPXL 3X Long
S&P 500 Shorts
————————
$SPYD 1X Short
$SDS 2X Short
$SPXU 3X Short
NASDAQ Longs
————————
$QQQ (1X Long)
$QLD (2X Long)
$TQQQ (3X Long)
NASDAQ Shorts
————————
$PSQ. (1X Short)
$QID ( 2X Short)
$SQQQ (3X Short)
DOW Jones Longs
————————-
$SPDR (1X Long)
$DDM (2X Long)
$UDOW 3X Long)
DOW Jones Shorts
—————————
$DOG (1X Short)
$DXD (2X Short)
$SDOW (3X Short)
Joe Kiernan on CNBC arguing with Andrew RS, claiming no negative effects of carbon emissions. I don't know why I bother. Kiernan is terrible--cannot believe he is still employed.
As per the prior poster, an exhaustion to this recent sell-off followed by a quick uptick and then a recession sounds about right to me. The timing is impossible to know. I'm not seeing a recession to challenge 2008, though, where half the value evaporated.
As per the prior poster, an exhaustion to this recent sell-off followed by a quick uptick and then a recession sounds about right to me. The timing is impossible to know. I'm not seeing a recession to challenge 2008, though, where half the value evaporated.
culdeus
Footballguy
In a rapidly declining market the 3x funds could just just go to 0 on both sides. New 3x funds are no longer allowed. They get insurance for a black swan event but those insurance companies can go insolvent as well leaving everyone bag holding.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Seems like he's constantly predicting a blow off top and the worst recession since 1929 and just keeps pushing back the timing
Two Months Left: Henrik Zeberg Predicts Top to Come Soon
Henrik Zeberg, a prominent trader and analyst, the host of The Zeberg Report platform, reiterated his "the worst recession since 1929" prediction. However, he adjusted the timeline, while some traders are sure that BTC will not recover to new highs in this cycle.Henrik Zeberg expects worst collapse…
At some point he will probably be right.
Sand
Footballguy
Can you expound? What do you mean by casting a shadow? Sorry, I should know this, I'm sure, but I'm missing your point.
Bossman
Footballguy
I stopped playing with VIX a long time ago...
that continues to make no sense and reeks of manipulation.
culdeus
Footballguy
Casting a shadow means just "getting close".
VIX is a measure of stock market volatility and can be a buy and sell signal for certain momentum investors. You can trade the VIX with options because of course options on an index of options is a thing that people do.
I've always thought the VIX should be called the negativity index, not the volatility index. It goes up on down days and down on up days.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I don't believe the 10% correction number is relevant...but next level of technical support is reportedly just south of 5400 (which is about where it closed on 9/6/24).
U.S. Markets break below critical technical levels as recession fears drive selloff
U.S. Markets break below critical technical levels as recession fears drive selloff
www.ig.com
Sand
Footballguy
Yeah - maybe it's just me but 20-25 on the VIX is a bit high, but not meltdown high. We hit 65 or so during the COVID panic.
I've thought about buying VIXY when the VIX was hovering in the 13 range, but never did as those ETFs decay. And we hovered at 13 for a loooong time, as it turns out.
May find out today
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, this is awful. M23 rebels are 5 days away from the tin mine. All operations shut down for safety. Insiders hoping peace talks soon will help but right now, this is just mayhem. Assuming the rebels reach the mine, they'll be able to steal some diesel fuel, maybe some food and equipment, but they aren't going to lug around tin concentrate. This isn't gold, which is something they ARE after.
But right now, this is just painful.
But right now, this is just painful.
SWC
Bromigo
i was talking to a woman last night who is very conservative and she bought a tesla a few years back she said that all of her conservative friends at the time gave her crap and called her a hippy yadda yadda now she says she is being flipped off and called a nazi by people she suspects are liberals she said she is getting rid of it and just wants to not be associated with tesla anymore and i suppose that is what a lot of people are thinking regardless of thier political affilitation i mean who wants a swastika painted on thier car take that to the bank brohans
Redwes25
Footballguy
That is the risk of Musk becoming so political. No matter your personal politics in this day and age of such sharply divided politics in this country it is smart to try and stay out of politics when running your business. A reverse example of this Anheuser-Busch InBev got hammered over their commercials in 23.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I do give him credit for taking stances that would obviously alienate his customer base. I'm not sure it's smart from a business perspective (it's not) but there's some nobility in it. With that said he should go back to what he does best, innovate, and stay out of politics. He's far too important to the world to waste his time like this - and he's not very good at politics (in his presentation not necessarily in his political beliefs).
Last edited:
He is doing the U.S. a favor IMO. Wish more smart folks would be as gracious.
Last edited:
Sand
Footballguy
Maybe also reproduce more. He seems to find time for that...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think he needs to be the one to do it. It's a waste of his valuable time.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Definitely agree he's wasted
Todem
Footballguy
It’s the “Don’t Pass” line at the craps table.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Damn I love Amazon in the low 190s.
Penguin
Footballguy
To his credit from the start he's always said it's a moving target. Election results, Fed moves, on again off again tariffs etc.Seems like he's constantly predicting a blow off top and the worst recession since 1929 and just keeps pushing back the timing
Two Months Left: Henrik Zeberg Predicts Top to Come Soon
Henrik Zeberg, a prominent trader and analyst, the host of The Zeberg Report platform, reiterated his "the worst recession since 1929" prediction. However, he adjusted the timeline, while some traders are sure that BTC will not recover to new highs in this cycle.Henrik Zeberg expects worst collapse…www.tradingview.com
At some point he will probably be right.
General Malaise
Footballguy
They shot up the TSLA dealership again today in Tigard. Not a good look for a city that was constantly in the news for bad looks a few years ago.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'll never understand how people can not realize that whatever they believe, things like that don't actually help.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Hmmm... I do like playing dark side. Maybe I should get into VIX
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Don't.
culdeus
Footballguy
Wait is this the same stock that is about to have it's operation run over by militants?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Pfft. A mere headwind.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Especially when non-violent protest and consumer choice was actually working.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Gotta love Cathie Wood. ARKK down 30% in a month and back to where it was in 2018. When that thing goes on a run, it’s time to go defensive.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
It's a brand that represents its founder. I choose to never support him, whatsoever.
Intelligence and protesting might not go hand in hand but it depends on the circumstances, obviously. I'd say we're in highly unusual times and I have no problem whatsoever with people speaking their mind against the current...'leadership'.
Capella
Footballguy
Times are a little different now than 1939 I think we would all agree. Everything is polarized. I have a buddy that had a Tesla, last month he showed up in a Benz. Said he traded it in for a loss but he didn’t want to be in it anymore. A big chunk of this country and seemingly a lot of Europe are out on this guy. Has to count for something.
