Wow, I’m bearish but still nowhere near 95%. Bold call.
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah I’m about 50/50 right now but deploying cash pretty heavily in big tech today. I’ve always been good about raising cash near tops but I’ve always been late at bottoms thinking it’s going to keep going lower and waiting. This time I’m deploying cash in intervals and not waiting for the exact bottom dinner bell to ring. So today hitting Meta, Amazon and Google.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Huge? You talkin 10 trillion market cap huge
I'm actually at like 80-85% cash in mine and my wife's Roth accounts at the moment, and did just buy some META.
I'm still kinda using the 5% I'm getting there as a bit of a hedge since the large majority of my money is in my 403b just riding 100% stock index funds.
Can't decide if/when I want to deploy deploy deploy
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm basically still rich.
It barely dipped. It's back to December 2024 levels. Call me when it gets in the 300s.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
As boomers continue to fade who is the target audience for FB? no gen Z, no millennials. Does meta also include what's app and instagram in their revenue stream?
Capella
Footballguy
I’m pretty sure they do.
culdeus
Footballguy
Facebook is basically abandoned. Their UI hasn't changed in what? 10 years? It's just as clunky as ever. I don't even think they bothered to release a iOS native app. They have moved on completely to insta and WA.
Todem
Footballguy
Forward multiples:
META 24
AAPL 28
GOOGL 18
NVDA 27
MSFT 28
AMZN 31
GOOGL is on sale. And NVDA has revenue growth that is incredible still and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Those are the two I would nibble more into.
The others are not “on sale” yet. Only the froth has come off AAPL, MSFT, META and AMZN.
Love em all long…..but just passing along my opinion on these names because they are so widely held.
Meta has definitely come down….and yes AI is their focus.
META 24
AAPL 28
GOOGL 18
NVDA 27
MSFT 28
AMZN 31
GOOGL is on sale. And NVDA has revenue growth that is incredible still and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Those are the two I would nibble more into.
The others are not “on sale” yet. Only the froth has come off AAPL, MSFT, META and AMZN.
Love em all long…..but just passing along my opinion on these names because they are so widely held.
Meta has definitely come down….and yes AI is their focus.
culdeus
Footballguy
The thing is most of these stocks seem relatively tarrif proof. Curious if you are changing international large caps or broad market in holdings.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
META and GOOGL definitely have potential impacts, as companies seeing cost increases could easily choose to offset them by reduced ad spend. If they drive a recession, amplify that.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
AAPL probably the most directly impacted, I'd think.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
any thoughts on Adobe (ADBE)? lowest price since May 2023...
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I think this exchange is still applicable here.
The bolded is still my biggest concern, and I still haven't bought back in. Though I have NOT taken a fresh look at them recently. I'd be open to someone telling me why this is now wrong or changing. Or that equilibrium has at least been reached for reason XYZ.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Added some today
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yes.
That said, I don't see social media going anywhere because AI isn't going to post pictures to a bunch of people bragging about my kid's participation trophy. Google's search revenue could potentially be impacted by AI.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
IMO all of these are on sale based upon historical valuations in there space. Now if you think Amazon is going to be mostly a delivery and grocery store company then the valuation may be high. It's interesting that Amazon's PE is now below Walmart.
I would be nibbling at all of these (except APPL) because when the tide turns they could easily be double ups in 2-3 years.
Todem
Footballguy
My point is patience on a few. GOOGL and NVDA have the most compelling “sale” prices at this moment.
All of them can get cheaper too.
So yeah nibble is the word.
One thing to note on AMZN and MSFT is that their data center expansion/investment is gigantic this year (and last year). I think their earnings may be drastically undervalued. AMZN right now has a forward PE of 29. That would mean 69.9B in earnings. They announced their Capex spend for this coming year will be $100B. I understand their wanting to get ahead, but if they don’t need that huge spend in the future their earnings could explode both from the potential new AWS revenue and from the drop in Capex spend.
Also, I think AI may be a big employment concern for a lot more people in a few years. I think that most of the Mag 7 are also going to be some of the top beneficiaries of those AI savings.
The other note in all of this is that the PE ratios (minus Apple) above are as cheap or cheaper than some of the “safe” stocks and also have higher growth rates than the “safe” stocks. No idea how long this downturn will take but I feel like the numbers and potential earnings, especially as the Capex will start slowing, look good.
Todem
Footballguy
Agree on all points.
We own 6 out of the 7 and have for a very very long time.
If I had to rank AI futures on all these:
NVDA
MSFT
META
AMZN
GOOGL
AAPL
The risk long term with NVDA is it's narrow moat but over the next 4-5 years I don't see too many headwinds. MSFT/META/AMZN/GOOGL are prime positioned for the AI explosion that is upon us over the next decade.
And yes froth has definitely blown off all these stocks.
GOOGL is the cheapest currently......and the one I would add more so at this moment. We get another 5-7% pull back in the Nasdaq and S&P all these will be on an even better sale and I think the chances we see another pullback are very hgh before summer and into summer.
Just throwing out some tactical ideas to those sitting on dry powder to be patient....pick your spots. There will be multiple opportunities over the next 4-5 months to buy a little cheaper.
However timing the market is a fool's errand. But again just giving my professional opinion on the swings this year.......we expected them and expect them to continue thru the late summer. 4th quarter I think the market will be a coiled spring and end 7-9% higher from here (S&P 500) Nasdaq probably 13-15% higher from here.
We have seen that defensive rotation......and I agree defensive stocks (staples, utilities and the like) have had their run already this year. It's been a rotation rally vs an all out sell off.
That's actually a good sign for markets.
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Todem
Footballguy
Let me clarify on the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow.
They have already corrected 12 and 8 % respectively from their all time highs and the DOW 30 is down 7% from it's all time highs.
I believe we will again be at those all time highs by year end and maybe higher if things go smoother as the year moves forward.
The short term headline risk is real and has really ripped the market downward.......literally it's all been sentiment...not dramatic fundamental facts.....the economy as a whole is not horrible. The uncertainty has unnerved a lot of people. And this is the result of that.
I expect (as does the market) 2 more .25 interest rate cuts in the back half of 2025. Once the market see's ultimately where the tax cuts go, the budget bill and all this trade/tarriff and DOGE noise.....once it has clarity...we move forward and higher.
That's my 2025 outlook.
They have already corrected 12 and 8 % respectively from their all time highs and the DOW 30 is down 7% from it's all time highs.
I believe we will again be at those all time highs by year end and maybe higher if things go smoother as the year moves forward.
The short term headline risk is real and has really ripped the market downward.......literally it's all been sentiment...not dramatic fundamental facts.....the economy as a whole is not horrible. The uncertainty has unnerved a lot of people. And this is the result of that.
I expect (as does the market) 2 more .25 interest rate cuts in the back half of 2025. Once the market see's ultimately where the tax cuts go, the budget bill and all this trade/tarriff and DOGE noise.....once it has clarity...we move forward and higher.
That's my 2025 outlook.
This is exactly my thoughts as well. I think both stocks and bonds finish the year in the green.
Bossman
Footballguy
Let me preface this by saying I'm naive and ignorant when it comes to finance and politics.
I don't find this political (even tho the guy in the reel bringing it to our attention IS). The message is about Private Equity and losing pensions. Mods please delete if it is too political.
I'd like someone with more intelligence than me that has a spare 5 minutes to view this and let me know there is nothing to see here .... since I don't fully understand what she is saying;
Private Equity Predators Devouring Pensions
I don't find this political (even tho the guy in the reel bringing it to our attention IS). The message is about Private Equity and losing pensions. Mods please delete if it is too political.
I'd like someone with more intelligence than me that has a spare 5 minutes to view this and let me know there is nothing to see here .... since I don't fully understand what she is saying;
Private Equity Predators Devouring Pensions
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So is UWMC stock price essentially tied to interest rates? As in, say the fed cuts rates a few times, stock price goes way up?
I know there's more to it obviously, but lower rates would be better for UWMC correct?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
A mortgage company will have more business when interest rates are low.
Sand
Footballguy
I'll stick with my "we'll get zero rate cuts in 2025" prediction. Otherwise this sounds like a good year.
Sand
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Stonks. Go. Up.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I believe it was 3.5% which is big for UWMC. I did jump in for small amount at 5.95. Closed at $6.01 and I get a nickel a share of course the stock will be down at least a nickel tomorrow.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Devil’s always in the details. I mean they beat expectations that they lowered by more than half.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Sales down 9%
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
This statement was a dagger.
In a conference call with analysts, finance chief Matt Friend said Nike expects its sales decline in the fiscal fourth quarter, which is set to end in May, to be at the “low end” of the “mid-teens range.” It also anticipates its gross margin will fall between 4 and 5 percentage points as it ramps up efforts to clear out excess inventory and stale styles that are no longer resonating with consumers.
At the closing price the forward PE is 31 before accounting for any further slowdown in earnings. Higher than Amzn, Meta, Msft, Nvda etc.
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Sand
Footballguy
What do these shoes cost these days, then? Firstborn?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
This is the kind of stock I'll jump into for a share or two. Looking at their financials, they are making less money on more revenue.
I did add a minimal amount of Nike and am up 3% thus far.
Considering another batch of UWMC at $5.80-$5.85. This has been pretty tradeable lately. It's fallen much more than the dividend paid.
Sand
Footballguy
Haven't tracked that one in a while. But given the price action I'd take the tax loss and move on. Most companies that lose that much don't recover.
Sand
Footballguy
Sentiment based signal here. Interesting - hope it holds up for 18/18.
Saw an article this morning stating that corrections that happen so quickly (within a month) have historically produced +14% gains in the following six months. There have been ten such instances and all rebounded that way.
Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-just-did-something-080600100.html
Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-just-did-something-080600100.html
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I saw this earlier in the week along with another one or two historical performance statistics that indicate the drop is done. I guess my only question is are we just dealing with random noise from random events. If I spent more time on Bear websites would there be similar factions pointing to the opposite?Sentiment based signal here. Interesting - hope it holds up for 18/18.
Exact same article also says this: “ There have only been six times in history where the S&P 500's Shiller P/E surpassed 30 for at least two consecutive months, including the current bull market. All five prior occurrences were eventually followed by declines of at least 20% (if not much more) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite.” Author can’t seem to make up their mind or state a position. So which is it? 14% gain from here or additional -10% or more downside?
