Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

[ghostguy123]

hopefully a market moving tweet in 3....2...................

This yoyo stuff sucks, especially cause the way I yoyo, it ends up on the floor and I cant get it to come back up.

Restarted positions in what I sold yesterday. I dont even know why I do this with my fun money Roth account. I should just throw it all in, never look for 15 more years, and work an extra shift a month to make up for the time I spend looking at markets.

 

[The Z Machine]

hopefully a market moving tweet in 3....2...................

Down 4% today. Cool. Should have sold yesterday, but stupid dinner got in the way.

 

[themeanmachine]

Kevin O'Leary is a proponent of 400% tariffs. He has a point, though the pain to weather the negotiations would be hard.

https://x.com/BreitbartNews/status/1909953980148699506?

I’m torn. I like the theory but I don’t like him.

Love him or hate him he has very strong, clear opinions and certainly isn't afraid of expressing them.

That's what keeps him on air.

My question is WHY do we need to "put China's head into the wall"? Wasn't the US benefitting from the system as it was 3 months ago?

Totally IMO, but because they lie, cheat, and steal and have for a long time. Their state program to steal as much IP as possible has allowed them to be where they are now. They've done it with impunity. The government dumps product on the rest of the world to corner markets (state subsidized). Look at what we're seeing now with rare earths - they rape the earth, pollute it to produce cheap metal to drive out competitors, now are using that as a cudgel over the rest of the world.

They're basically 1 billion mobsters.

A bit harsh here, Sand. Seems the kool aid has made it's way through the American populace in sufficient manner.
Every business both in the U.S. and world wide does their best to reverse engineer (aka steal as much IP as possible).
To say that they state subsidize their population, well, I dare say the United States has done it's fair share as well.

Sand's comments were a bit over the top, IMO. But you are dramatically downplaying the level of IP theft and state subsidization going on in China. I've seen it myself in the companies I've worked at. It is on a completely different level than what happens in the rest of the world. Much of it is a cultural difference - the Chinese don't consider IP theft to be immoral or unethical, just good competitive business practice, and it's rampant. It's not "reverse engineering", I'm talking about pure theft. And they absolutely subsidize key industries they want to compete in to drive competitors out of business. Both of these in much more dramatic ways than happens in any other country, there is no equivalency at all to anything that happens in America.

 

[themeanmachine]

I think you're going to see a lot of companies posting good earnings this quarter and either a) pausing forward guidance or b) lowering estimates going forward.

100%. Tariffs won't flow through to P&L until Q3. You'll see some small drops in operating margin in Q2 due to imports, but if companies front loaded deliveries before tariffs hit, they could avoid a lot of this pain in Q2.

This is absolutely happening, seeing it directly in my small corner of the world. Customers rushing to place orders rather than waiting, distributors front-loading orders to avoid tariff hits. It will bump up this quarter, but it's just stealing from the future and will make the pain worse later this year.

 

[ericttspikes]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

 

[beef]

History Note from a few days ago:

Seven of the market's 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days.

Reminder of a History note from a few days ago:

...as we're having a potential 10 worst day.

 

[Chemical X]

everyday i tell my wife how many extra months she’ll need to work to join me in retirementville. i had her at 6, moving to 9 today and waiting for a destructive tweet to add another 3 months.

 

[Stoneworker]

I think a lot of people forget we're in a technical downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows.

If you're buying the dip in this environment, better have your stops in place. Swimming against the current.

 

[General Malaise]

Have to think at least some folks in DC are buying up US Antimony. Or at least, there's new buyers coming from somewhere. Up over 10% today in a sea of red around it.

United States Antimony Corporation ("USAC," or the "Company"), (NYSE:UAMY), the only vertically integrated antimony producer in North America, announced today the continued expansion of the Company's Alaskan Antimony mineral land position. This is a result of the execution of a new lease/option purchase agreement and an additional staking program. The staking program of 18 claims was initiated to cover isolated areas of open ground in the Fairbanks area that were contiguous with the previously leased lands. The company's land holdings in the Fairbanks area, highly prospective for both antimony and gold, now total 144 claims covering approximately 8,998 acres.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Yesterdays rebound was irrational and todays decline is also irrational. We also saw that a bit of fake news a few days ago took a market that was down by 1000 points to being up by over 1000 points momentarily. The more unknowns there are, the more fragile a market is. I think the biggest takeaway for me the past week or two is not about the market being overvalued or undervalued. I think valid arguments can be made for both sides. My biggest takeaway is that the market is ultra fragile right now—and I think it will continue to do so until some of these “unknowns” are replaced with some semblance of clarity. Investors with long term horizons should probably just weather the storm and maybe even consider adding some names that they have had their eyes on for a while. Short and medium term investors might want to consider trying to transition into more defensive positions (assuming they can do so without taking much of a hit). Regardless, I wish everybody in this forum good luck and prosperity.

 

[dancingbones]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

 

[beef]

I think a lot of people forget we're in a technical downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows.

If you're buying the dip in this environment, better have your stops in place. Swimming against the current.

This is my favorite time to buy and go long. Nothing I'm adding right now I plan on selling any time soon.

 

[ghostguy123]

What tweet or piece of news could even come out at this point that would cause a positive spike??

 

[MTskibum]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So yesterday was shorts being covered and people being so anxious to jump back in it looks like - but reality and the economic uncertainty is back in play after people caught their breath.
I’ve lost more than half my gains from yesterday today so far.

 

[BassNBrew]

So yesterday was shorts being covered and people being so anxious to jump back in it looks like - but reality and the economic uncertainty is back in play after people caught their breath.
I’ve lost more than half my gains from yesterday today so far.

Not if you don't sell.

 

[BassNBrew]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

 

[BassNBrew]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I assume you've gone 100% cash.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So yesterday was shorts being covered and people being so anxious to jump back in it looks like - but reality and the economic uncertainty is back in play after people caught their breath.
I’ve lost more than half my gains from yesterday today so far.

Not if you don't sell.

I’m pretty sure you know what I meant. Yes, it’s an unrealized loss - but my portfolio has “lost” half the gains from yesterday.

 

[General Malaise]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

If they are selling, where do you think the money flows?

My bet is gold, which is up $102 to $3,181.

I'm definitely NOT an economist, but wasn't one of the reasons for these tariff actions to weaken the dollar or am I making that up? Seem to recall that was one of the goals and dumping treasuries would start that process. Right now the dollar is getting crushed.

 

[General Malaise]

Nibbling on some Harmony Gold HMY (used to own this one in the early 2000s and it made me enough money that I wanted to name one of our kids Harmony if it was a girl, which my ex-wife correctly shot down).

Also adding some gold via IAU, which is a physical ETF.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

What tweet or piece of news could even come out at this point that would cause a positive spike??

Dropping of remaining tariffs would shoot things through the roof.

 

[NajehHejan]

hopefully a market moving tweet in 3....2...................

This yoyo stuff sucks, especially cause the way I yoyo, it ends up on the floor and I cant get it to come back up.

Restarted positions in what I sold yesterday. I dont even know why I do this with my fun money Roth account. I should just throw it all in, never look for 15 more years, and work an extra shift a month to make up for the time I spend looking at markets.

You know what they say…..all work and no play makes Ghost a dull boy…..

 

[ghostguy123]

hopefully a market moving tweet in 3....2...................

This yoyo stuff sucks, especially cause the way I yoyo, it ends up on the floor and I cant get it to come back up.

Restarted positions in what I sold yesterday. I dont even know why I do this with my fun money Roth account. I should just throw it all in, never look for 15 more years, and work an extra shift a month to make up for the time I spend looking at markets.

You know what they say…..all work and no play makes Ghost a dull boy…..

you talked me into it, back into some SOXL!!!!!!!!!!

 

[MTskibum]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I assume you've gone 100% cash.

I am 20 years from retirement, so not touching the majority of my money. It is all in target date funds.

But for short term I am sitting on a fair bit of cash. I am sitting on a years salary(take home pay, not gross). My industry is not looking good :-(

The short term is also for kids college and that is still 8-10 years away. So we did leave some invested, I tried to convince my wife to sell it all yesterday, but...

 

[pecorino]

Buying May AAPL calls with the thought that they stand a lot to gain when / if the China tariff issue is resolved (and hoping it comes in less than six weeks.)

 

[ghostguy123]

What tweet or piece of news could even come out at this point that would cause a positive spike??

Dropping of remaining tariffs would shoot things through the roof.

I agree.........but it "seems" like there is a zero chance of this. At least with China.

However with all that said, if there was an announcement that ALL tariffs would go back to the exact same as they were on January 19th............yes I'd guess stocks would sore to maybe 5% away from the previous highs.

 

[dancingbones]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

If they are selling, where do you think the money flows?

My bet is gold, which is up $102 to $3,181.

I'm definitely NOT an economist, but wasn't one of the reasons for these tariff actions to weaken the dollar or am I making that up? Seem to recall that was one of the goals and dumping treasuries would start that process. Right now the dollar is getting crushed.

I also read something about German bonds as an alternative to US Treasuries - again I am way out of my depth & don't understand all that underpins the global financial system, so take what I say as idle speculation & wondering at best!

 

[dancingbones]

hopefully a market moving tweet in 3....2...................

This yoyo stuff sucks, especially cause the way I yoyo, it ends up on the floor and I cant get it to come back up.

Restarted positions in what I sold yesterday. I dont even know why I do this with my fun money Roth account. I should just throw it all in, never look for 15 more years, and work an extra shift a month to make up for the time I spend looking at markets.

You know what they say…..all work and no play makes Ghost a dull boy…..

you talked me into it, back into some SOXL!!!!!!!!!!

I have a ROTH IRA with Vanguard, and am not able to trade in SOXL there - am in the process of opening another one with Fidelity so I can trade these SOXL swings & join in the fun!

 

[Desert_Power]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

Definitely could be some of this but recall that they buy/hold these to keep the value of their currency low to support exports. Could be doing some to put pressure on though.

I still think there was a big basis trade component as well as a shift of investors away from US assets.

 

[Redwes25]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

Chemical companies are very very cyclical. A recession would crush them. I don't know specifics of LYB but did look at DOW recently and I would be surprised if they can keep their dividend where it is even if we don't get a recession. For example, last year their dividends and buybacks cost them about $2.5 billion (2.0 billion of which was the dividend). They had $1.2 billion in net income and just $2.9 billion of cash provided by operating activities flows with $2.9 billion of cap ex resulting in $(37) million of free cash flow. A $2.0 billion dollar per year dividend cost doesn't add up when you have negative free cash flow and we could be heading into a recession.

I would suggest anyone buying a company for dividend yield look at this numbers for the company they are thinking about. Just because yield is high doesn't mean the stock is a good buy and a high yield could be signs of real problems.

 

[McBokonon]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

 

[ghostguy123]

Ok, gotta ask this one.
If we are all so convinced that the market always rebounds over time (because, well, it has for forever), when we have a 20% or so downturn, why don't people load up on SPXL?

 

[General Malaise]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

8.49% dividend rate is attractive for sure, but I'm not buying anything Mat Ishbia related. Dude gives me the ick.

 

[GoBirds]

Does anyone put funds in tax exempt bond funds or better to be in fixed income like CD/MM?

Expected my bond funds to work inversely w stocks but some red ink there too.

 

[Chemical X]

Does anyone put funds in tax exempt bond funds or better to be in fixed income like CD/MM?

Expected my bond funds to work inversely w stocks but some red ink there too.

yeah, i’m heavy in TTT bond funds at Vanguard. always my safe haven…….until this week. i’ve lost some principal obviously, but the uptick in the monthly dividend will partially offset. you won’t lose principal with MM and CDs.

 

[Todem]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

Chemical companies are very very cyclical. A recession would crush them. I don't know specifics of LYB but did look at DOW recently and I would be surprised if they can keep their dividend where it is even if we don't get a recession. For example, last year their dividends and buybacks cost them about $2.5 billion (2.0 billion of which was the dividend). They had $1.2 billion in net income and just $2.9 billion of cash provided by operating activities flows with $2.9 billion of cap ex resulting in $(37) million of free cash flow. A $2.0 billion dollar per year dividend cost doesn't add up when you have negative free cash flow and we could be heading into a recession.

I would suggest anyone buying a company for dividend yield look at this numbers for the company they are thinking about. Just because yield is high doesn't mean the stock is a good buy and a high yield could be signs of real problems.

DOW and LYB valued as if a deep recession is upon us.

Long term at these prices…..just wow…deep value here if you have the stomach.

 

[jwb]

Ok, gotta ask this one.
If we are all so convinced that the market always rebounds over time (because, well, it has for forever), when we have a 20% or so downturn, why don't people load up on SPXL?

You see the angst on red days/weeks, right? Even though we "know" its coming back.

Now multiply that by 3x... (plus, triple the "you need an 11% gain to make up a 10% loss thing).

Listen, I love the 3x SPXL/TQQQ. But I only use them when I feel very bullish. And as soon as there's any inkling of trouble, I'll take my foot off the gas. They are short term things - a week / 2 weeks / a month... and yea, you can't time all that accurately, so I've gotten caught in a bad 8-9% down day. But overall they can be good if you are diligent.

 

[General Malaise]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

Chemical companies are very very cyclical. A recession would crush them. I don't know specifics of LYB but did look at DOW recently and I would be surprised if they can keep their dividend where it is even if we don't get a recession. For example, last year their dividends and buybacks cost them about $2.5 billion (2.0 billion of which was the dividend). They had $1.2 billion in net income and just $2.9 billion of cash provided by operating activities flows with $2.9 billion of cap ex resulting in $(37) million of free cash flow. A $2.0 billion dollar per year dividend cost doesn't add up when you have negative free cash flow and we could be heading into a recession.

I would suggest anyone buying a company for dividend yield look at this numbers for the company they are thinking about. Just because yield is high doesn't mean the stock is a good buy and a high yield could be signs of real problems.

DOW and LYB valued as if a deep recession is upon us.

Long term at these prices…..just wow…deep value here if you have the stomach.

Div yields of 8.9% and 9.4% right now.

Rather own these than UWMC if income hunting.

But what do I know.

 

[General Malaise]

Anyone (@Todem) care to explain why DOW, LYB, and to some extent UWMC are trading like tech companies these days?

Chemical companies are very very cyclical. A recession would crush them. I don't know specifics of LYB but did look at DOW recently and I would be surprised if they can keep their dividend where it is even if we don't get a recession. For example, last year their dividends and buybacks cost them about $2.5 billion (2.0 billion of which was the dividend). They had $1.2 billion in net income and just $2.9 billion of cash provided by operating activities flows with $2.9 billion of cap ex resulting in $(37) million of free cash flow. A $2.0 billion dollar per year dividend cost doesn't add up when you have negative free cash flow and we could be heading into a recession.

I would suggest anyone buying a company for dividend yield look at this numbers for the company they are thinking about. Just because yield is high doesn't mean the stock is a good buy and a high yield could be signs of real problems.

DOW and LYB valued as if a deep recession is upon us.

Long term at these prices…..just wow…deep value here if you have the stomach.

Div yields of 8.9% and 9.4% right now.

Rather own these than UWMC if income hunting.

But what do I know.

Just read the post from @Redwes25

Yeah, think I'll stay away. Good insight, RedW.

 

[dancingbones]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

Definitely could be some of this but recall that they buy/hold these to keep the value of their currency low to support exports. Could be doing some to put pressure on though.

I still think there was a big basis trade component as well as a shift of investors away from US assets.

This is where I start to nod & pretend that I follow what you're saying - it all seems impossibly complicated to try to wrap my head around.

In my brain it all falls under the umbrella of "unintended consequences" - and that doesn't inspire confidence over here with me.

 

[KGB]

Hopping on board. SOXL $9.73 options

 

[jwb]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

 

[Desert_Power]

I continue to be baffled by this thread's love for UWMC.

same, but that's because I think their CEO is cuckoo for coco puffs.

thought that said cuckold and I got excited

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I was at a tech conference a couple months back and one of the keynote speakers was Zack Kass, former executive and futurist at OpenAI. one of the things he said that stuck with me is that the AI technology currently in development is 3-4 years beyond what's currently available to the public. so people now are using ChatGPT to write docs, make goofy pics, presentations, etc, but a lot of the high value-add stuff they're working on now we don't even know about yet. and as you mentioned, we may never know because it will all be so seamless...

 

[McBokonon]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

 

[Desert_Power]

Gotta believe, despite Bessent's claim to the contrary, that China is dumping US Treasuries. I mean, why wouldn't they?

Yes, I think this is what is happening as well - I am not well versed on any of it, so take what I say with the appropriate grains of salt, but it sure seems like a lever I would pull if I were in their shoes.

Definitely could be some of this but recall that they buy/hold these to keep the value of their currency low to support exports. Could be doing some to put pressure on though.

I still think there was a big basis trade component as well as a shift of investors away from US assets.

This is where I start to nod & pretend that I follow what you're saying - it all seems impossibly complicated to try to wrap my head around.

In my brain it all falls under the umbrella of "unintended consequences" - and that doesn't inspire confidence over here with me.

I guess I'm saying that China could be selling them to cause market chaos, but doing so causes their currency to rise against the dollar (making their exports less competitive). I think that is part of the dynamic at play for sure.

The Chinese fixed their onshore currency tighter than predicted in the offshore trade. That implies that they were at least somewhat selling. That seemed to be the news that set off Tuesday night's freakout and the semi-reversal.

 

[General Malaise]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

"Influencer"


Go rot.

 

[MTskibum]

I think this causes LLM crash and we see djia around 20-25 by end of year. I think Nvidia gets crushed.

Similar percentage drop to 2008.

New page, so I thought I would add it one more time.

I know you see the LLM / AI as a bubble, but I'll disagree.

Public-facing LLMs are fun, but that's almost the "toy" / "fun" aspect of AI (even though it's killing my job as a copywriter). The real value, and why companies will have to have it, is in the increased capability and efficiencies of almost all software and software-related services. How it will turn a 5-person marketing or accounting department into one person plus powerful AI-driven software.

At first, I also thought, "How is it going to make money? It needs John Q Public to want to pay a monthly fee for it". Then I realized it really doesn't need me to even be conscious of it. I'm just going to automatically choose the software or services that have it baked into what they do because those apps/services will be better than the ones without it.

AI is pretty game-changing. I don't see this crashing anytime soon.

Hopefully this post ages well lol.

I led my first machine learning project prior to chat gtp being announced and my brother has patents on medical equipment utilising AI.

I read tons of AI articles and it has been a top interest of mine going back many years.

All of the funding is in llm's. The other stuff is already possible to do quite cheap. There is no revenue in an AI model designed to watch employee floor for unsafe practices to prevent injury. Fortune 500 companies have the resources to develop the useful stuff in house.

 

[Chemical X]

futurist

I hate people who call themselves "futurists" almost as much as "life coaches." No, I won't explain myself.

"Influencer"


Go rot.

content creator