PG 13 forum dude.I'm confused....
Clubs and balls.
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Rirruto
Footballguy
Nothing fancy. I have some short SPY contracts expiring May 30. I think that was a bad bet. There might not be enough time for the bad news to come out. Strike is $532 and it's trading at $537. Some deeper cuts expiring in December that I like a lot better. Also, bought some calls on a gold ETF expiring in December.
Saw today that BofA is advising clients to short SP500.
KGB
Footballguy
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg takes the stand in historic antitrust trial
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg faced questions about his intentions in acquiring Instagram on the first day of a historic antitrust trial.
apnews.com
META
I'm thinking might be undervalued with the trial amd might see some upside.
Anyone know how long a trial like this lasts?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg takes the stand in historic antitrust trial
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg faced questions about his intentions in acquiring Instagram on the first day of a historic antitrust trial.
META
I'm thinking might be undervalued with the trial amd might see some upside.
Anyone know how long a trial like this lasts?
They are saying 8 weeks
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
China suspends all rare earth exports.
This seems like a big problem. The market seems to keep pretending that there isn‘t a trade war happening.
This seems like a big problem. The market seems to keep pretending that there isn‘t a trade war happening.
General Malaise
Footballguy
So, we saw MP (Mountain Pass REE) up +20% today, US Antimony +13% and Almonty (Tungsten) +16% today, all on news that Trump wants to stockpile critical metals. We should have been stockpiling them much sooner because this was coming, Trump or not.
But here we are. China controls so so so so so much of the world's refined metals that we need in (waves hands around wildly) EVERYTHING!
We may be able to produce a few metals here but not enough to satisfy our appetites for them. And here is where China can play hardball and has us by the short hairs.
Oh, and let's say we do start producing commercial grade metal ore, who is going to refine and process them? The guys working at Shake Shack? The people educated and trained to do this don't live here and we've made it harder for them to come here.
Make any of this make sense to me.
Rirruto
Footballguy
Yikes.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This isn't really "new" news though, right? It's hard to keep up with the snip snap of announcements.
General Malaise
Footballguy
No, China has played this card before - back in 2010 they levied massive tariffs on refined REE and prices spiked but cooler heads prevailed and the world kept spinning.
But the issues have never been resolved, mainly the fact that we (USA) have never advanced the ball on domestic production and our in-house processing. We still ship raw ore produced here to China for processing because it's cheap and they're very good at it. But they also have cheap, skilled labor which is absent here. They also don't have a pesky EPA to deal with and refining REE is a heideously dirty affair.
What I've been talking about in here for months/years now is the risk this poses to our military. Every airplane, every drone, every missile, every bullet every EVERYTHING requires metals we don't produce here. And that's a huge problem. YUGE. You can't be the world's greatest military absent the elements needed to arm it.
And boys, opening a REE smelter or refinery or finding a commercial deposit of tungsten or antimony isn't like opening a taco truck. It takes YEARS and it takes a BUNCH of capital. Permitting, training, building....that's just part of it.
As I said in here earlier, it won't be until spring 2028 until the Athletics play in their new ballpark in Las Vegas. That's a stadium, something we've built hundreds of. You want to tell me how long it takes to build a commercial grade REE processor? Something we don't know how to do?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
China had previously said they were looking to stop selling to the US. Now they’re basically saying that they won’t sell licenses to buy to anyone outside of China. The not selling to us would have been a problem but we would have found ways around it and bought from other sources that bought from China.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I thought Biden gave MP a big chunk of money a few years ago to progress the refining piece of this. No?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I thought the headline itself was a couple of days old though? I could be mistaken.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This is what I remember reading. Not nearly enough, I assume:
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yes, they do process SOME REE, but not all of the ones we need and by comparison, the US is dwarfed by China (all countries are) in global production and processing. I can link a chart later that shows it better.
Remember, the appetite here is a great deal bigger than our in-house kitchen.
Sand
Footballguy
I wrote a bit back that I thought exaggerated swings in the market in modern days to be due to hedge funds and computer trading. This article puts it on 0DTE options. And that these vehicles are now 7% of all options. You degenerates!
Klimtology
Footballguy
Still all in the Money Market.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Someone on WSB bought $350 worth of 0DTE's back on that 12% up day when tariffs got delayed and walked away with $42k.
7% is crazy high though. Surely they must just mean raw number of contracts (which would make more sense since 0 DTE's are so cheap so easier to trade a ton of contracts) and not volume of dollars spent on options.
ETA: Article isn't clear if it's 7% of contracts or 7% of dollars spent on options but it must be raw contracts as it says 7.5 million, and $7.5M in dollars wouldn't be anywhere close to 7% of daily option dollars spent ($14B).
Klimtology
Footballguy
Should I get back in?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Beanie Babies.Should I get back in?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Beanie Babies.Should I get back in?
Topshots imo.
Klimtology
Footballguy
All the talk about a recession and tariffs spooked me out.
So bummed that Vanguard does not allow me to trade (i.e. speculate with) these. They make me go at least one full day out. Heathens.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Oh shoot, sell signal.Should I get back in?
Sand
Footballguy
Good article on what the market's history has been when getting close, but not quite, to the 20% correction mark.
awealthofcommonsense.com
Buying When the Stock Market is Down 15% - A Wealth of Common Sense
A historical look at what happens when you buy the stock market when it's been down 15% or worse.
awealthofcommonsense.com
The Z Machine
Footballguy
That article is like all the others looking at historical actions after steep drops. "Most of the time, everything is good and you profit. Sometimes it sucks and you lose more. That's investing!"
Yep. Great article. I have seen similar statistics for drops of 10%.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Did any of the indexes drop 20% off the highs at any point? I know they were all right in that ballpark
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Maybe Nasdaq, but I don't think SP500 did.
Capella
Footballguy
No…you should not.Should I get back in?
NASDAQ did.
dancingbones
Footballguy
Also Russell 2000
dancingbones
Footballguy
Can't seem to shake the feeling of being in the eye of a hurricane here.
(Not that I have ever been in the eye of an actual hurricane).
(Not that I have ever been in the eye of an actual hurricane).
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Todem
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Semiconductor tariffs are next apparently.
SOXL down 9% after hours.
Guess I'm gonna have to set another limit but in the 7's
SOXL down 9% after hours.
Guess I'm gonna have to set another limit but in the 7's
NVDA down 6% after hours on new government restrictions to ship chips to China
dancingbones
Footballguy
I was not able to buy SOXL in my ROTH IRA with Vanguard - so in the past couple of weeks I have opened another ROTH IRA with Fidelity & transferred some $$ just to buy able to join in the SOXL fun. Thanks to you & the other posters who put this on the radar & keep it in the conversation - much appreciated!
KGB
Footballguy
It was a blessing to waitI was not able to buy SOXL in my ROTH IRA with Vanguard - so in the past couple of weeks I have opened another ROTH IRA with Fidelity & transferred some $$ just to buy able to join in the SOXL fun. Thanks to you & the other posters who put this on the radar & keep it in the conversation - much appreciated!
Rirruto
Footballguy
Thoughts and prayers to hodlers. A super bad beat. But the news requires a "license" to sell H20 AI accelerators to China. Maybe Jensen can finesse some licenses?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
SOXL army - yes - tomorrow may be a good day to enter. AH closed at 9.66. I still have a GTC buy order in at 8. Not looking to adjust that bid at this point. I may miss out, but trying to maintain discipline. Overconfidence IMO is too risky in this atmosphere.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Kinda doubt my $7.53 SOXL order hits today.
Today's low, $9.11. nice. Emergency!!!!!
Today's low, $9.11. nice. Emergency!!!!!
General Malaise
Footballguy
God bless you, antimony.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Powell Warns of "Challenging Scenario" as Fed Tackles Higher Inflation, Slower Growth
By Nicole Goodkind
President Donald Trump’s tariff policy will likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, pointing to the toxic economic combination known as stagflation.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Economic Club of Chicago. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects.”
As central bank officials attempt to navigate these changes, he said, policymakers could find themselves in a “challenging scenario” where their dual goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices “are in tension.”
This is Powell’s second public appearance since the White House unveiled sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on April 2.
Since then, President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has shifted rapidly. The Trump administration introduced a 90-day suspension on April 9 for some trading partners, and hinted this week at more exemptions for select technologies and certain auto-related tariffs.
The White House’s back-and-forth over tariffs has jolted markets, sent the U.S. dollar tumbling, and upended the bond market with heightened uncertainty about the inflation and economic outlook. Investors are more worried about Trump’s trade policies than any other issue, according to a Bank of America survey of global fund managers on Wednesday.
As of Wednesday afternoon, traders were pricing in just a 14.2% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at its May meeting, down from 20.4% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Powell Speech Today: Fed Chair Warns of 'Challenging Scenario,' Tariff-Induced Inflation Could Be ‘Persistent;’ Watch Live
Follow here for live coverage and analysis of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech today.
www.barrons.com
General Malaise
Footballguy
It's one thing when a jagoff on a message board mentions "Stagflation" but quite another when it's the FED Chair.
McBokonon
Footballguy
He's basically just forecasting a bunch of stuff we would get timeouts for forecasting in this thread.
General Malaise
Footballguy
well, like it or not, it is news and we've been asked to post links to any news, so we're following the rules in here. This has to be reported upon.
McBokonon
Footballguy
It’s still ongoing, might need to wait for it to end before getting a good summary with a link
