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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Anyone have the clip?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Missed this....
SHANGHAI, April 30 (Reuters) - China has created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs and is quietly notifying companies about the policy, two people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to ease the impact of its trade war with Washington.
China has already granted tariff exemptions on select products including select pharmaceuticals, microchips and aircraft engines and was asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, Reuters reported on Friday. However, the existence of a so-called 'whitelist' had not been previously reported.
SHANGHAI, April 30 (Reuters) - China has created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs and is quietly notifying companies about the policy, two people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to ease the impact of its trade war with Washington.
China has already granted tariff exemptions on select products including select pharmaceuticals, microchips and aircraft engines and was asking firms to identify critical goods they need levy-free, Reuters reported on Friday. However, the existence of a so-called 'whitelist' had not been previously reported.
Todem
Footballguy
4 weeks ago he said we will have a recession.
identikit
Footballguy
Yeah, he's a cartoon
Bossman
Footballguy
yikes ... if my math is correct, NVDA and AMZN are down about 20% from their all time high and hopefully that's not when you bought all of yours...
so guessing you have some other stocks in there that have really tumbled?
Capella
Footballguy
No just those two. My position in NVDA is 98 a share and Amazon 113 in that account.
Edit: I meant 30% this year not all time.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Said he didn't buy back any of his stock last year because it wasn't a bargain. So glad I convince my son to dump BrkB
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I still have no idea why that thing is up 20% on the year and the SP is down. Yesterday’s earnings report was actually pretty terrible.
Todem
Footballguy
Makes zero sense actually.
Rirruto
Footballguy
I'm still short the market. But I love Alphabet only because of Waymo. If the market acts like I suspect it will, I'm loading up on Meta and Alphabet. I hate their core products. Facebook and Google search suck so bad it is not worth talking about. If I could leverage my next 50 years of salary to bet against Facebook and Google search, I would. But Instagram and Waymo are super star products. Conglomerate investing has fully pivoted to tech. You've got to own ****ty products to own great ones now.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Personally think YouTube is the Alphabet superstar.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I haven't looked at their P&L but I imagine that YT ad revenue must be showing continued growth.
culdeus
Footballguy
I always wonder how they get these scam games and vshred to pay them enough to keep the lights on. The ads are uniformly **** products.
Then they pay out the content creators some.
The_Man
Footballguy
Every shipping and trucking company says they are slumping to pandemic levels of trade. I hear that shortages in a wide variety of products are imminent and that cars and replacement auto part prices are set to skyrocket
Do we not think these things are true, or that the market anticipates these challenges and has already priced them in, or that trade deals will get worked out in time somehow, or that the system is flashing red but that the market is thus far ignoring those signs? I feel like there's a significant disconnect between what is about to happen and how the market currently stands
Do we not think these things are true, or that the market anticipates these challenges and has already priced them in, or that trade deals will get worked out in time somehow, or that the system is flashing red but that the market is thus far ignoring those signs? I feel like there's a significant disconnect between what is about to happen and how the market currently stands
Gatorade
Footballguy
All good questions. I'm just not sure now what to believe because so many are just trying to push a narrative. I do know that we made it thru the COVID pandemic with obvious problems and we survived. When times get tough, people figure out a way to survive. I think adjustments will be made in our lives and corrections will occur but that there is no need to panic. There are always ups and downs in life. You just have to learn how to ride the waves.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think the publicly traded companies that have the most to lose with tariffs have already been hit. The companies with less exposure like MSFT and Google are rising as people pull away from the former type of companies.
What might not be priced in is a wave of small and medium businesses going under or laying off workers due the tariffs, causing a spike in unemployment, lower consumer spending and hence a recession. But that will take time, like another 6 months yet. I suppose there's hope that those companies can recover once a trade deal is done.
What might not be priced in is a wave of small and medium businesses going under or laying off workers due the tariffs, causing a spike in unemployment, lower consumer spending and hence a recession. But that will take time, like another 6 months yet. I suppose there's hope that those companies can recover once a trade deal is done.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
The bold is correct but I doubt it takes 6 months.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
None of the panic (lack of confidence) from the realizations of impact have been priced in either.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How do you know that? - it seems the "uncertainties" have been priced in already, as evidenced by several days of extreme drops and the market still down overall since January.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
100% tariff on all movies made outside the US. 100% of what? I suppose I'm fairly ignorant as to how foreign made movies come to market. Where is this being applied? What about movies that are filmed on location in some instances, but the bulk is made in the US? DIS up a bit today, but NFLX off 1.5%. Seems like that would potentially impact them, unless this is just for theater release and not streaming? That seems like it wouldn't have enough impact.
I'm shuked.
I'm shuked.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
I don't "know" it. I can't predict the future. I'm rather confident though. When people start seeing prices go up, shelves starting to empty, and watch consumer confidence drop, market is going to react accordingly. This seems rather obvious to me, but I'm just an internet shmuck.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I am not sure how this is all going to play out. I would be surprised with empty shelves but prices are definately going up.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Exactly, but you made the statement that it hasn’t been baked in when most of the people following the market have been beaten over the head with what the tariffs may bring and which direction the economy may be heading - which is why I don’t think you can say none of that has been baked in yet. Some companies have already suffered for not being able to offer future guidance.
Could things turn for the worse, yes and they probably will - but the market has already been in the process of adjusting to that and we’ve already had some major corrections.
I’m not saying we’re out of the woods but we’ve been in the woods for a while now at least.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
Not sure why you clipped my explanation of position but whatever. I guess we'll see. If all that is baked in, I'm happy to be completely wrong. I'll be shocked if we don't see more downward movement in the markets in the next 2-6 weeks.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
did you need to read it again or something? It was just for ease of reading through the board.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The tariff stuff started hitting the market really hard in early April.
It seems like the market was in the midst of a normal healthy pull back from Feb -> Mar, about 7%.
Then the tariff news hit and we crashed hard and fast. But we've recovered ALL of that, and then some. We're actually up very slightly (less than 1%) since the big tariff news first hit.
So I guess the question is was the Feb -> Mar pullback for tariffs, or just a normal settling after a big run up? If it was the latter, then we don't really have much in the way of tariff pricing in yet. We're currently up about 1% since we were in late March when we didn't have China tariffs, didn't have blanked 10% tariffs across the board, etc.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It could be argued that we were due for a correction anyway, but tariffs news and "tweets" definitely had it's effects during that range.
Capella
Footballguy
That’s smart, because that’s almost certainly what’s going to happen.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Ford suspends guide and says tariffs would cost them 1.5 billion in adjusted earnings. The uncertainty is not going away.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I sold this one during the pullback earlier and not really sure why it has rebounded (outside of political things).
General Malaise
Footballguy
Hasn't Ford stock traded between $2 and $20 for the last 30 years? What's the inducement to invest in this one? I've never been even remotely interested in owning Ford stock. Ever.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I mean 9% off puts it into ridiculous valuation from the previous insane valuation.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Is this like an offdee ranking for stocks?
Insane: Valuation is very rare. Could be a top growth stock, meme stock, or culty SPAC (globally overvalued, the TSLA of stock valuations)
Ridiculous: The hottest stock this quarter, the hottest stock at WSB, the one your Uber driver is asking you about, etc (more retail hyped)
Crazy: One of the hotter stocks this week, the hot new name at the golf club (Wall Street's rising stars). Not your main squeeze, but maybe a short squeeze.
Overvalued: A market beater that had blown the top off but is likely to come back to earth. The float you want but not the moat you need.
A little overweight: Fairly attractive pricing, no major flaws but maybe minor ones (no, I didn't really change this category at all. Lol)
Fairly valued: Starting to be unattractive, but some qualities may work in its favor. Nothing major, but minor downside is more common
Loser: Not attractive. Major flaws start piling up (Bad CEO, market saturation, excessive debt)
Value stock: Unloved name currently. Face planted but could become a winner with a little love. Solid long-term name. Stock you might find on your geriatric online forum. More classically hot. Might work its way onto a todem list.
Value trap: One of the uglier stocks in your portfolio. Oversized position you can't exit. Valuation seems reasonable but no growth prospects.
Pig: Absolutely disgusting and should be avoided at all costz. Young children point and investors look away upon seeing. Not one single redeeming quality. Penny stocks. Bankruptcies waiting to happen. $AMC. $F, per GM.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Dividend………about it
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It’s a dividend stock - although there’s far better ones.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Hmmm... GM hates Ford. 
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Inverted head and shoulders. Was resisting the 50 day moving average, once it broke through that became bottom resistance. Was trading in a narrow band between the March high and 50 day MA. Once it broke through 100 it was set to run. You could see a retrace to $98 but support should be real strong there.
Of course this could be a bunch of bunk.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Why own any car company.
