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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

Alex P Keaton said:
Todem said:
Desert_Power said:
Todem said:
10% on China (was in place during Biden Admin)
20% Fentanyl in place (since the Biden Admin)
Click to expand...
Link to this claim?
Click to expand...
Ok.....


And here is the 20% Fentanyl since the Biden administration ended (should have edited my original post) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 2/25/25 and was already priced into the markets.


So like I said....back to square one.

Stating facts....not politics. Let's keep politics and emotional feelings outta this thread which seems to be a challenge for some people (not saying you in particular Desert).

And those emotional (and political) feelings have led some people to some horrible investment decisions as is now being proven yet again.
Click to expand...
I don’t understand why you are just ignoring the 20% fentanyl tariff as if it is fake. The effective tariff has gone from 10% to 30% even after this announcement. I’m not opining on whether this is good or bad - it just is what it is. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
Not ignorning it all…..my point is the market already priced it in…..before the “Liberation day” debacle.

That’s the point I was making. We are back to square one before liberation day with Tariffs and oh look the market is 2% away from where it was before this highly headline generated correction.

Anyway.
 
Todem said:
Alex P Keaton said:
Todem said:
Desert_Power said:
Todem said:
10% on China (was in place during Biden Admin)
20% Fentanyl in place (since the Biden Admin)
Click to expand...
Link to this claim?
Click to expand...
Ok.....


And here is the 20% Fentanyl since the Biden administration ended (should have edited my original post) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 2/25/25 and was already priced into the markets.


So like I said....back to square one.

Stating facts....not politics. Let's keep politics and emotional feelings outta this thread which seems to be a challenge for some people (not saying you in particular Desert).

And those emotional (and political) feelings have led some people to some horrible investment decisions as is now being proven yet again.
Click to expand...
I don’t understand why you are just ignoring the 20% fentanyl tariff as if it is fake. The effective tariff has gone from 10% to 30% even after this announcement. I’m not opining on whether this is good or bad - it just is what it is. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
Not ignorning it all…..my point is the market already priced it in…..before the “Liberation day” debacle.

That’s the point I was making. We are back to square one before liberation day with Tariffs and oh look the market is 2% away from where it was before this highly headline generated correction.

Anyway.
Click to expand...
Got it. Either way, I’m thrilled the market is where it is today.
 
Todem said:
Alex P Keaton said:
Interesting to see the market rally and getting back in striking distance of all time highs. A 30% tariff is still really high.
Click to expand...
Let me clarify this for you.

10% on China (was in place during Biden Admin)
20% Fentanyl in place (since the end of Biden Admin)

Back to Square One but now in active discussions........time will tell but I am highly confident....it's behind us....and it got behind us a lot sooner than I even thought.

Bull case is now in full play for 2025.
Click to expand...
What about the Section 301 tariffs that were in place during Trump 1?
 
Has anyone seen the infomercial on the $7 self driving stock that Marc Chaikin has been pushing, along with him saying to sell Tesla? Anyone know what stock it is?
 
Irish3 said:
Has anyone seen the infomercial on the $7 self driving stock that Marc Chaikin has been pushing, along with him saying to sell Tesla? Anyone know what stock it is?
Click to expand...

I believe it's Aurora (AUR), over $7 today and down from $9. There are some other speculative self driving stocks that have over weight ratings like: WRD, AEVA and OUST.
 
Irish3 said:
Irish3 said:
Has anyone seen the infomercial on the $7 self driving stock that Marc Chaikin has been pushing, along with him saying to sell Tesla? Anyone know what stock it is?
Click to expand...

I believe it's Aurora (AUR), over $7 today and down from $9. There are some other speculative self driving stocks that have over weight ratings like: WRD, AEVA and OUST.
Click to expand...
AUR would be my guess. Sounds like they have a pretty innovative proprietary lidar system.

There's a Seeking Alpha article from February that is calling out Chaikin for touting Aurora too.
 
The Z Machine said:
Todem said:
Alex P Keaton said:
Interesting to see the market rally and getting back in striking distance of all time highs. A 30% tariff is still really high.
Click to expand...
Let me clarify this for you.

10% on China (was in place during Biden Admin)
20% Fentanyl in place (since the end of Biden Admin)

Back to Square One but now in active discussions........time will tell but I am highly confident....it's behind us....and it got behind us a lot sooner than I even thought.

Bull case is now in full play for 2025.
Click to expand...
What about the Section 301 tariffs that were in place during Trump 1?
Click to expand...
They were there again……that’s the point.

They never went away.

Why are we going in circles here.
Nothing has changed except the Fentanyl 30% which was added in February.

Can we move on now? The while point is what has that done to the market YTD

Basically nuttin.

However what did come out of all of this? A great buying opportunity in April.

Hope you took advantage.
 
Irish3 said:
Irish3 said:
Has anyone seen the infomercial on the $7 self driving stock that Marc Chaikin has been pushing, along with him saying to sell Tesla? Anyone know what stock it is?
Click to expand...

I believe it's Aurora (AUR), over $7 today and down from $9. There are some other speculative self driving stocks that have over weight ratings like: WRD, AEVA and OUST.
Click to expand...
It is. If you don't subscribe to Stock Gumshoe emails, do so. He/They figure out what these newsletter grifters sellers are talking about so you don't have to.

Here's this one, specifically.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Waiting for the Todem seal of approval on UNH :P
Click to expand...
Well when a giant in the managed care industry is down 45% now YTD it definitely gets my attention.

The cloud of uncertainty is certainly dragging this best in class in managed care stock down hard YTD. This can easily be another CVS trade for those who have a stomach.

Regulatory risks, 2025 guidance pulled, turmoil at the top….a nice cocktail for this plunge and the forward valuation looks quite attractive if they can manage thru the short term storm.

I don’t see a reason not to take a longer term position down here if you believe they can be navigated out of this perfect storm of short term but “potentially” long term headwinds depending on again a new reformed regulatory landscape.

A nibble here of a 1% position with potential to buy more even lower in the days or weeks to follow this **** storm for UNH for a total 2% position is in view.

It will probably take 12-18 months to see this trade work out. Upside over that time horizon is anywhere from 35-45%
 
McBokonon said:
Irish3 said:
Irish3 said:
Has anyone seen the infomercial on the $7 self driving stock that Marc Chaikin has been pushing, along with him saying to sell Tesla? Anyone know what stock it is?
Click to expand...

I believe it's Aurora (AUR), over $7 today and down from $9. There are some other speculative self driving stocks that have over weight ratings like: WRD, AEVA and OUST.
Click to expand...
It is. If you don't subscribe to Stock Gumshoe emails, do so. He/They figure out what these newsletter grifters sellers are talking about so you don't have to.

Here's this one, specifically.
Click to expand...
This is a really fun site, thanks for sharing.
 
I moved my entire 401k to foreign index funds on this recent bounce. My wife has a 401k that is about equal to mine and she is leaving hers as is.

We also didn't sell my kids college funds. I posted earlier that i tried to convince my wife, but good thing i didn't. Now that stock market has recovered i am going to try to see what her interest level is in selling that and moving it somewhere else.


Although, I believe it will be Open AI crumbling that will be the major cause of next crash.
 
Todem said:
The Z Machine said:
Todem said:
Alex P Keaton said:
Interesting to see the market rally and getting back in striking distance of all time highs. A 30% tariff is still really high.
Click to expand...
Let me clarify this for you.

10% on China (was in place during Biden Admin)
20% Fentanyl in place (since the end of Biden Admin)

Back to Square One but now in active discussions........time will tell but I am highly confident....it's behind us....and it got behind us a lot sooner than I even thought.

Bull case is now in full play for 2025.
Click to expand...
What about the Section 301 tariffs that were in place during Trump 1?
Click to expand...
They were there again……that’s the point.

They never went away.

Why are we going in circles here.
Nothing has changed except the Fentanyl 30% which was added in February.

Can we move on now? The while point is what has that done to the market YTD

Basically nuttin.

However what did come out of all of this? A great buying opportunity in April.

Hope you took advantage.
Click to expand...

I would never have scooped up TTD without you. I'm up almost 50% alone in that one. :thumbup:
 
MTskibum said:
I moved my entire 401k to foreign index funds on this recent bounce. My wife has a 401k that is about equal to mine and she is leaving hers as is.

We also didn't sell my kids college funds. I posted earlier that i tried to convince my wife, but good thing i didn't. Now that stock market has recovered i am going to try to see what her interest level is in selling that and moving it somewhere else.


Although, I believe it will be Open AI crumbling that will be the major cause of next crash.
Click to expand...
So you think all the guidance on more AI spending and comments that these maga companies are actually incorporating AI to write code and improve efficiency was a smokescreen?
 
Forgot to post here, but I took my daughter and twin boys to a BROS the other day - our first trip there together. Usually a SBUX family, I jumped at the chance to take them as part of a due diligence trip as it's been quite some time since I ordered anything from a Dutch Bros. Even brought the doggo along as he likes to visit drive-thrus.

6pm on a Sunday, the line was probably 5 cars deep. Gal came to the car with a tablet to get our order, super friendly, suggested we download the app for free stuff in the future, which my daughter did immediately. Line moved pretty quick and while waiting, my older son texted in and asked me to get him a blended kicker, and when we got to the window, I asked to add that to our order. No problem, gal happily added it and told me it was on the house! Even gave the dog a little pup-cup with dog treats and whipped cream. Happiest dog in the world.

Kids sucked down whatever it was they got, really liked their sugary iced bangers and have already asked to go back, so BROS got their hooks into the Malaise kids. Should be good for business.

I would note that BROS is expanding into states like Texas and Florida where it's not getting any cooler. I imagine these iced sugar caffeinated concoctions will sell very well down there. Stock sitting at $70 which is expensive, but while SBUX has reported disappointing news and sluggish outlooks, BROS is doing quite well and seeing incremental growth. I'm remaining bullish on this one, though I have mental stops at $65 and $60 would be a puke out event for me. But I think it could test the 52-week level as well.
 
BassNBrew said:
MTskibum said:
I moved my entire 401k to foreign index funds on this recent bounce. My wife has a 401k that is about equal to mine and she is leaving hers as is.

We also didn't sell my kids college funds. I posted earlier that i tried to convince my wife, but good thing i didn't. Now that stock market has recovered i am going to try to see what her interest level is in selling that and moving it somewhere else.


Although, I believe it will be Open AI crumbling that will be the major cause of next crash.
Click to expand...
So you think all the guidance on more AI spending and comments that these maga companies are actually incorporating AI to write code and improve efficiency was a smokescreen?
Click to expand...

I believe it is marketing speak.

The sam altman's of the world are trying to convince the world how awesome their product is before they run out of money.

SoftBank isn't walking through that door with many more 10's of billions.
 
General Malaise said:
Forgot to post here, but I took my daughter and twin boys to a BROS the other day - our first trip there together. Usually a SBUX family, I jumped at the chance to take them as part of a due diligence trip as it's been quite some time since I ordered anything from a Dutch Bros. Even brought the doggo along as he likes to visit drive-thrus.

6pm on a Sunday, the line was probably 5 cars deep. Gal came to the car with a tablet to get our order, super friendly, suggested we download the app for free stuff in the future, which my daughter did immediately. Line moved pretty quick and while waiting, my older son texted in and asked me to get him a blended kicker, and when we got to the window, I asked to add that to our order. No problem, gal happily added it and told me it was on the house! Even gave the dog a little pup-cup with dog treats and whipped cream. Happiest dog in the world.

Kids sucked down whatever it was they got, really liked their sugary iced bangers and have already asked to go back, so BROS got their hooks into the Malaise kids. Should be good for business.

I would note that BROS is expanding into states like Texas and Florida where it's not getting any cooler. I imagine these iced sugar caffeinated concoctions will sell very well down there. Stock sitting at $70 which is expensive, but while SBUX has reported disappointing news and sluggish outlooks, BROS is doing quite well and seeing incremental growth. I'm remaining bullish on this one, though I have mental stops at $65 and $60 would be a puke out event for me. But I think it could test the 52-week level as well.
Click to expand...
Saw a BROS near Orlando and immediately thought of this thread.
 
Desert_Power said:
General Malaise said:
Forgot to post here, but I took my daughter and twin boys to a BROS the other day - our first trip there together. Usually a SBUX family, I jumped at the chance to take them as part of a due diligence trip as it's been quite some time since I ordered anything from a Dutch Bros. Even brought the doggo along as he likes to visit drive-thrus.

6pm on a Sunday, the line was probably 5 cars deep. Gal came to the car with a tablet to get our order, super friendly, suggested we download the app for free stuff in the future, which my daughter did immediately. Line moved pretty quick and while waiting, my older son texted in and asked me to get him a blended kicker, and when we got to the window, I asked to add that to our order. No problem, gal happily added it and told me it was on the house! Even gave the dog a little pup-cup with dog treats and whipped cream. Happiest dog in the world.

Kids sucked down whatever it was they got, really liked their sugary iced bangers and have already asked to go back, so BROS got their hooks into the Malaise kids. Should be good for business.

I would note that BROS is expanding into states like Texas and Florida where it's not getting any cooler. I imagine these iced sugar caffeinated concoctions will sell very well down there. Stock sitting at $70 which is expensive, but while SBUX has reported disappointing news and sluggish outlooks, BROS is doing quite well and seeing incremental growth. I'm remaining bullish on this one, though I have mental stops at $65 and $60 would be a puke out event for me. But I think it could test the 52-week level as well.
Click to expand...
Saw a BROS near Orlando and immediately thought of this thread.
Click to expand...

Shoot, I imagine that location would do well with all them tourists! (I've never been to Orlando, I just assume there's tourists).
 
MTskibum said:
I believe it is marketing speak.

The sam altman's of the world are trying to convince the world how awesome their product is before they run out of money.
Click to expand...
I think Bass is referring to companies like Microsoft and Meta who aren't selling AI (like Altman) as much as they are using it internally on their own work to create efficiencies, like using it to code.
 
McBokonon said:
MTskibum said:
I believe it is marketing speak.

The sam altman's of the world are trying to convince the world how awesome their product is before they run out of money.
Click to expand...
I think Bass is referring to companies like Microsoft and Meta who aren't selling AI (like Altman) as much as they are using it internally on their own work to create efficiencies, like using it to code.
Click to expand...

I don't think those companies do much coding with AI nor does it improve efficiency.

AI can help someone create a buggy/security flawed application that is similar to an existing application using one of the more popular computer languages/frameworks.

But that is all it can do now and unless companies invest in improving training data quality then code output won't improve.
 
McBokonon said:
$RKT up and $UWMC down today, presumably because Citron/Andrew Left is pounding the table on $RKT. The thesis is they are building a tech/data juggernaut - Lauren Balik, who has a tendency to be a little nuts sometimes but also right others, states that "Andrew Left @CitronResearch is making great points today about $RKT, which has actually "crossed the chasm" to use data and tech while competitor United Wholesale Mortgage $UWMC stays out in the cold."
Click to expand...
Bought the dip this morning and flipped it for a 2.5% gain. thanks for the heads up.
 
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