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BassNBrew said:
General Malaise said:
The Z Machine said:
Aaaand just flipped 25% of those gains back into BROS at $47.69
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Perhaps $50 was never the floor after all. :kicksrock:
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Do you have any visibilty into if institutions are leading this sell off.
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Doesn't seem like the volume is heavy so hard to believe these are institutions hammering it. Short interest isn't alarming.

Did note yesterday that there were only a couple of cars grabbing afternoon refreshments but one of them was a police car and I took that to be a good sign. I don't know why. I can't explain that one but it made me feel reassured that the boys in blue were still springing for BROS. Lines were bustling this morning. :shrug:
 
General Malaise said:
BassNBrew said:
General Malaise said:
The Z Machine said:
Aaaand just flipped 25% of those gains back into BROS at $47.69
Click to expand...

Perhaps $50 was never the floor after all. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
Do you have any visibilty into if institutions are leading this sell off.
Click to expand...

Doesn't seem like the volume is heavy so hard to believe these are institutions hammering it. Short interest isn't alarming.

Did note yesterday that there were only a couple of cars grabbing afternoon refreshments but one of them was a police car and I took that to be a good sign. I don't know why. I can't explain that one but it made me feel reassured that the boys in blue were still springing for BROS. Lines were bustling this morning. :shrug:
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I take the boys in blues as a bad sign. Around here they get everything free. Also when they hang around all the folks with expired tags stay away.
 
Sand said:
General Malaise said:
Sand said:
The Z Machine said:
Well my UAMY and AREC double ups hit, so I'm free rolling on both those now. Thanks, @General Malaise !
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Dang

<---- Chopped liver over here. :kicksrock:
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Lol.....I can take ZERO credit for AREC. All Sand there. :thumbup:
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Gives me a good excuse for the kicks rock emoji. I love that little guy.
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Yes, well, some of us are printing up T-shirts that say, "I follow these guys and all I got was a lousy ARECtion joke."
 
I was waffling the other day about posting this here because I'd like it to be ongoing but don't want to clutter this thread but with the news today (NYSE investing 2 BIL in Polymarket), may as well start it here for now. The gist of it is the gambling/prediction markets colliding. As you've probably seen, Donkey Kong and Flutter are flailing. It's been clear something bigger was underneath the declines and now we know. This article explains it.

What sucks (as a DKNG holder) is technically it was finally breaking out and coupled with recent earnings, along with the NFL in full swing, it sure looked like takeoff. Then this.

Freight train coming?
 
Last edited:
BassNBrew said:
MTskibum said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Dezbelief said:
St. Louis Bob said:
BassNBrew said:
St. Louis Bob said:
I moved a lot of money out of stocks and into fixed income a few weeks ago. Valuations are crazy. Then I read stories about how this is a "different economy" now so they are justified. That's so late 90's when I had hair and was happy.
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Only problem I see is that history says stocks almost always increase as the fed cuts rates.
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I agree and wouldn't be surprised at all if stocks keep going up. I've had a great year, no need to get greedy. I don't want to be around when people wake up to valuations. I don't think there's going to be a crash but things will return to normal.

Mostly I'm relying on the Buffett Indicator. He's smart.
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Know when to fold em, when to walk away and when to run.
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I taught both our sons about investing when they were young, but only the youngest, 18, really embraced it. He has been giddy about the returns we've been getting as am I. He wants to put more of his money to work and I texted him exactly what you posted. He's a poker player like his daddy. He has some quality stocks and youth so there's no need for him to be selling. I'm old and sickly though... lol

Here's what I don't understand. So much of the gains are centered around AI. It's estimated we need to double the amount of power available IN FOUR YEARS to meet the demand of these data centers. There's already more insanity than normal in the world. Adding this little power detail makes me pause.
Click to expand...

That is one of many reasons I see the ai bubble coming. No way they meet their projections.
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- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

This video along with another video explaining what it means changed my perspective. Jensen is saying that a $100,000 and $10,000 of AI out produces two $100,00 employees.
Click to expand...

But AI is nowhere close to replacing the complexity of a $100k employee.

I love AI and it's helpful in a lot of ways. But any time you apply it to something that you know even a little bit about you see just how ludicrously inept it is. Even at relatively simple tasks that you have to babysit it on.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
BassNBrew said:
MTskibum said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Dezbelief said:
St. Louis Bob said:
BassNBrew said:
St. Louis Bob said:
I moved a lot of money out of stocks and into fixed income a few weeks ago. Valuations are crazy. Then I read stories about how this is a "different economy" now so they are justified. That's so late 90's when I had hair and was happy.
Click to expand...
Only problem I see is that history says stocks almost always increase as the fed cuts rates.
Click to expand...
I agree and wouldn't be surprised at all if stocks keep going up. I've had a great year, no need to get greedy. I don't want to be around when people wake up to valuations. I don't think there's going to be a crash but things will return to normal.

Mostly I'm relying on the Buffett Indicator. He's smart.
Click to expand...
Know when to fold em, when to walk away and when to run.
Click to expand...
I taught both our sons about investing when they were young, but only the youngest, 18, really embraced it. He has been giddy about the returns we've been getting as am I. He wants to put more of his money to work and I texted him exactly what you posted. He's a poker player like his daddy. He has some quality stocks and youth so there's no need for him to be selling. I'm old and sickly though... lol

Here's what I don't understand. So much of the gains are centered around AI. It's estimated we need to double the amount of power available IN FOUR YEARS to meet the demand of these data centers. There's already more insanity than normal in the world. Adding this little power detail makes me pause.
Click to expand...

That is one of many reasons I see the ai bubble coming. No way they meet their projections.
Click to expand...

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

This video along with another video explaining what it means changed my perspective. Jensen is saying that a $100,000 and $10,000 of AI out produces two $100,00 employees.
Click to expand...

But AI is nowhere close to replacing the complexity of a $100k employee.

I love AI and it's helpful in a lot of ways. But any time you apply it to something that you know even a little bit about you see just how ludicrously inept it is. Even at relatively simple tasks that you have to babysit it on.
Click to expand...
I think the point was that that the $100k employee is spending a significant amount of time doing sub $50k employee work.
 
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand is up huge this year as artificial intelligence models develop further from answering simple questions to complex reasoning.

“This year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially,” said Huang on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”


The CEO of the AI chip leader was answering a question about what investors ask him most about. Nvidia shares were higher in premarket trading as Huang gave his bullish comments.

AI reasoning models are using exponential amounts of computing power but they are also seeing exponential amounts of demand because their results are so good, Huang said.

“The AIs are smart enough that everybody wants to use it,” the CEO said. “We now have two exponentials happening at the same time.”

“Demand for Blackwell is really, really high,” he said. “I think we’re at the beginning of a new buildout, beginning of a new industrial revolution.”

Nvidia announced last month it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI’s massive data center buildout. OpenAI is planning to build 10 gigawatts of data centers using Nvidia chips.

The scale of the AI industry’s plans have raised doubts about whether the leading companies can secure the power needed to fuel their ambitions. Ten gigawatts is equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households, or New York City’s peak baseline summer demand in 2024.
Click to expand...
 
Nvidia NVDA -0.27% ▼ may still have plenty of room to run, according to Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes. Despite concerns that the chipmaker’s growth will slow after a nearly 40% rally this year, Reitzes said that “deceleration fears are overblown.”

On Monday, Reitzes raised his price target on Nvidia stock to $275 from $240, suggesting about 47% upside from current levels near $185. That places his target among the highest on Wall Street, second only to Elazar Advisors’ $389.73 estimate.

Reitzes argued that Nvidia remains central to the artificial intelligence boom, with growing demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) and continued expansion across global data centers.

Analyst Mentions 3 Key Flaws in Nvidia’s Bear Case​

The analyst highlighted three key flaws in the bear case. First, demand for Nvidia’s chips continues to outpace supply as AI technology powers more “autonomous everything” devices. Second, the competitive pressure among Big Tech firms is forcing record levels of AI infrastructure spending.

OpenAI’s plan to invest over $1 trillion in computing infrastructure has triggered a global race among hyperscalers. Reitzes said that could “catalyze rapid AI spending by an even broader cohort,” expanding the total addressable market for AI compute and networking to over $2 trillion by 2030.

Adding to this, Nvidia’s collaboration with OpenAI and its $100 billion investment in the company are helping secure long-term market share. Reitzes said the partnership “eased [ASIC] concerns quite a bit,” referring to the growing competition from application-specific integrated circuits.

AI Infrastructure Growth Boosts Nvidia’s Long-Term Revenue Outlook​

Reitzes expects Nvidia to capture over 40% of the AI infrastructure market, potentially worth $800 billion by 2030. He also projects that more than 20 gigawatts of new AI workload demand could emerge by 2028, driving over $400 billion in data-center revenue that year. Upgrades to existing systems could lift that figure to $500 billion.

As a result, Melius Research raised its estimate for Nvidia’s annual data-center growth rate to 44% through 2028, up from 40%, and well above the Wall Street consensus of 37%. For 2027, Reitzes now sees growth of 30%, up from 22%, “with an upside bias through the end of the decade.”

Nvidia Aims for Expansion into China amid Policy Shifts​

Another catalyst could come from a potential reopening of the Chinese market. Reitzes believes Nvidia could sell its H20 and Blackwell-based chips in China “within the next year or two.”

According to his report, demand for Nvidia’s products in China remains strong despite the country’s focus on developing domestic alternatives. “We are optimistic this will happen as U.S. and China governments are set to meet in October and the Nvidia issue could be on the table,” Reitzes wrote.

If sales to China resume, Nvidia could add over $10 billion in quarterly demand next year. That would represent about 15% upside to current earnings estimates of $6.41 per share, giving the company an even stronger path for growth.

To sum up, even though Nvidia’s stock has slowed in recent months, analysts still see strong long-term potential. The company’s mix of powerful hardware, steady investment strategy, and well-integrated software gives it a clear edge in building the next generation of AI infrastructure.
Click to expand...
 
BassNBrew said:
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand is up huge this year as artificial intelligence models develop further from answering simple questions to complex reasoning.

“This year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially,” said Huang on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”


The CEO of the AI chip leader was answering a question about what investors ask him most about. Nvidia shares were higher in premarket trading as Huang gave his bullish comments.

AI reasoning models are using exponential amounts of computing power but they are also seeing exponential amounts of demand because their results are so good, Huang said.

“The AIs are smart enough that everybody wants to use it,” the CEO said. “We now have two exponentials happening at the same time.”

“Demand for Blackwell is really, really high,” he said. “I think we’re at the beginning of a new buildout, beginning of a new industrial revolution.”

Nvidia announced last month it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI’s massive data center buildout. OpenAI is planning to build 10 gigawatts of data centers using Nvidia chips.

The scale of the AI industry’s plans have raised doubts about whether the leading companies can secure the power needed to fuel their ambitions. Ten gigawatts is equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households, or New York City’s peak baseline summer demand in 2024.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Demand is up because they are giving their customer 100 billion dollars to buy their product.

If ford started giving consumers 100 billion dollars to purchase their cars, then demand for ford would be up too.
 
Ford did offer $12-$15 billion in rebates and incentives to consumers, they just didn't get any potential equity in their customers houses with their investment. Now obviously $12-$15 < $100 billion, but Blackwell is more comparable to a Rolls Royce whereas a Ford is well.....a Ford.
 
The Z Machine said:
Feeling like irrational exuberance, doesn't it?
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On the surface. My counter argument is that the high market valuations is being driven by mega caps that are growing at 10-40% hence they are warranted. Look are these stocks:

CRM - forward PE 20, expected to grow 10%
Adobe - forward PE 16 and growing 10%

The froth is in companies like Cava, Chipotle, etc. Overall you end up with a mixed bag. If you were to trimmed 10-20% off Amazon, Google, Meta right now they would be table pounding buys.

Overall it's left me very confused.
 
Speaking of Kraken, my boss just told me that Bloomberg is going to visit Anduril, who is a huge strategic partner/buyer of Kraken's batteries and equipment.

Also, Gary Evans of UAMY was on with Fartonmypillow today. This is a Reddit link to the video but here it is for those who have interest.
 
General Malaise said:
Speaking of Kraken, my boss just told me that Bloomberg is going to visit Anduril, who is a huge strategic partner/buyer of Kraken's batteries and equipment.

Also, Gary Evans of UAMY was on with Fartonmypillow today. This is a Reddit link to the video but here it is for those who have interest.
Click to expand...
This, to me, is the biggest concern with them. They clearly have a concentration risk.
 
BassNBrew said:
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand is up huge this year as artificial intelligence models develop further from answering simple questions to complex reasoning.

“This year, particularly the last six months, demand of computing has gone up substantially,” said Huang on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”


The CEO of the AI chip leader was answering a question about what investors ask him most about. Nvidia shares were higher in premarket trading as Huang gave his bullish comments.

AI reasoning models are using exponential amounts of computing power but they are also seeing exponential amounts of demand because their results are so good, Huang said.

“The AIs are smart enough that everybody wants to use it,” the CEO said. “We now have two exponentials happening at the same time.”

“Demand for Blackwell is really, really high,” he said. “I think we’re at the beginning of a new buildout, beginning of a new industrial revolution.”

Nvidia announced last month it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI’s massive data center buildout. OpenAI is planning to build 10 gigawatts of data centers using Nvidia chips.

The scale of the AI industry’s plans have raised doubts about whether the leading companies can secure the power needed to fuel their ambitions. Ten gigawatts is equivalent to the annual power consumption of 8 million U.S. households, or New York City’s peak baseline summer demand in 2024.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Saw that. Huang will hit the "Bill Gates spite" zone at some point, where he's ruining the world for taking over (embellishing here) and "unlikeable" for, well, dominating (and explaining with a wry smile).

That will largely come from the base that missed the train, as such with MSFT for a time.

It's what we do. Get to a point where we've had enough and turn on them, trying to demonize the guy or whatever. It'll probly start with the all-important black leather jackets, like Jobs' turtlenecks, Gates and his Kermit the frog with glasses, ha. Memes here we come. But the core haters will point to all the disruption, jobs lost, domination, etc. Evil empire.

As if this wasn't going to happen anyway with other bright minds. Sorry, for being way ahead of the game?

Huang's my favorite since, well, Kermit the Frog.
 
Bob Sacamano said:
General Malaise said:
Speaking of Kraken, my boss just told me that Bloomberg is going to visit Anduril, who is a huge strategic partner/buyer of Kraken's batteries and equipment.

Also, Gary Evans of UAMY was on with Fartonmypillow today. This is a Reddit link to the video but here it is for those who have interest.
Click to expand...
This, to me, is the biggest concern with them. They clearly have a concentration risk.
Click to expand...

From Michael Sikand's Twitter feed:

The craziest part is Kraken isn't just dependent on Anduril.

Huntington's Hydroid subsidiary is using Kraken for their REMUS vehicle.

And CEO Greg Reid has stated the company will land another XL-UUV ($10M CAD per unit) contract THIS year.

Can't wait for that announcement
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