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Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.
It’s been bothering me lately. Part of the bad run lately was that it was on a tear during the pandemic and right before so it was a bit rich. It went from 1600 to 3700 in 18 months. We’re a bit insulated since our cost basis is $0 via grants and they gave my wife her biggest bonus grant at a low point so most of the stock we kept was split adjusted @ $40 and $100. I guess I shouldn’t really complain outside of knowing I should have sold more because our actual returns are better than market returns.

I think it will pick up because it honestly feels like there are stocks that are valued on numbers while others are criminally overpriced. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. As @BassNBrew said above, I’m not going to move money out of an undervalued stock to an overvalued one now.
 
I bought some CABA earlier this week after reading some recommendations over the weekend and looking at the chart. Been trending sideways the past few days, just hoping the next move is upward. Will have some good room to run if it is.
 
Was thinking about adding HD to watchlist, but it is NOT cheap right not. Historic PE Ratios for HD and LOW

10 year average:
HD 22.31
LOW 21.96

Highest 10 year:
HD 28.27
LOW 38.09

Lowest 10 year:
HD 17.68
LOW 14.94

Current:
HD 26.65
LOW 20.12
 
Aside from physical gold, what are you guys' gold exposure?
I have some mining stocks that are doing very well, and a small amount on a crypto gold-pegged futures trade that is also doing well, but would like to put some into an index, etc. I have Fidelity, if that makes a difference, but also a few other accounts I could possibly use if needed.
Stick with physical gold and silver (with the caveat that you have a safe and secure place to hold it). Try to buy it at the lowest premium over spot price. Don’t overpay for pretty coins—as when you go to sell it (if you do)—the offers that you will get will predominately be made based on purity, amount and spot gold price at the time. You generally don’t get return on the premium. Part of the run up in the precious metals is that as artificial intelligence and quantum computing evolve, hacking and theft of digital assets will be a bigger risk. The criminals and crooks tend to be one step ahead. Also, when you buy an asset that is connected to gold—but that isn’t physical gold—you are still opening yourself up to poor management, fraud, and market manipulation. I don’t know if the values of precious metals will continue to have a line shooting straight up and to the right—but I do think that there is still a lot of long term upside. Almost any country, individual, entity that is holding a lot of US debt in the form of bonds is purchasing gold and precious metals as a way to insure holding that debt that is almost certain to lose value with a fed that will probably have Powell and perhaps cook replaced in the near term.

With that said, I think that most legitimate equities, investments, and commodities are very bullish long term. We have a situation here where the government is still overspending, AI is just starting to improve the efficiency and profitability of big businesses, in a market where the dollar will be cheap for qualified entities to borrow. I think banks will be hesitant to loan out money to small and medium size businesses, but will have no problem loaning to big busineeses. These large businesses that are present in the stock market will have access to cheap capital and will be able to buy into the expensive up front cost of integrating AI into their business models—which will in turn make them more profitable. They will be able to lay off expensive workforces and replace them with AI that works 24 hours a day 7 days a week. These will make life very difficult for small and medium size businesses and many will go extinct or bought up by the larger companies. I think we could very well see a situation where in the medium to long term—the markets could be thriving meteorically while a large portion of the public (a far bigger wealth disparity than we see now) is struggling to make it. My advice is to avoid being cash rich. Hold enough to get you by—and hold a little extra for some unknowns—-but aside from that—I think asset accumulation is the must play for the medium and long term. There is no super great reason to hold too much cash at this moment in time—as if you have solid net worth—you should have access to cheap capital if needed here pretty soon.
Agree with your second paragraph 100%

And thanks all for the gold (and silver) reccs!!
 
For you Gold and Silver bugs, I'm adding a familiar name that I've owned prior but really like and wish I'd never sold. AEM - Agnico Eagle Mines. I recognize it's sitting at 52-week highs, but I don't think gold/silver are done running and this is a best in breed type mining operation.
WIll have to check into this one. Newmont (NEM) is my gold miner play. They have a significant amount of US properties, and well run company from what I've read. up 80% since May when I just took a little nibble! fack! Going to see what markets look like Monday after today's dip (on gold, etc.)
 
Anybody have perspective on why HD is currently elevated relative to LOW? LOW almost looks cheap by comparison.
I've owned both in the past, but currently only own HD. I am pretty sure HD has always traded at a higher PE than LOW and equate it to the WMT vs TGT difference.
HD has better management (imho) and is much more suited to the professional/contractor segment offering better services. LOW has tried to cut into that, but I think this segment is a bit stickier than they think. I think both are good, but prefer HD longer term. And again, Marvin Ellison seems like a good guy, but every time I hear him talk I feel like he is in over his head.
Ironically, I do 75-80% of my shopping at Lowe's vs HD as their pricing and promotions on things like appliances are slightly better. Also I feel their stores are a bit better organized, but that just may be the stores around me. I do know that HD has a really cool tool (not sure if Lowe's has it or not), where you can take a picture of something and it will pretty accurately detail where to find it in the store (or at least where it's supposed to be).

I used to own both WMT and TGT as well, but I am completely done with TGT and I love WMT. Target to me seems like they don't know wtf they are doing, who they are trying to target, and have no controls over their inventories or their supply chain. Maybe they'll sort it out, I doubt it. I never even shop at Target anymore. If I need something like a board game or throw pillows, etc... I'll either pick it up at Walmart or order it on Amazon. Target doesn't even come into my thought process.
 
WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
 
WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
I saw no announcements on this. What kind of "scaling back"? I don't have a sub to WSJ.

Talks about a lot of tariff exemptions happening. Idk how to gift.
 
WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
I saw no announcements on this. What kind of "scaling back"? I don't have a sub to WSJ.

Talks about a lot of tariff exemptions happening. Idk how to gift.
I read the first 3 sentences. Interesting that the admin is trying to weaken in the impact of the tariffs while still crowing about how they are great for the US.

I am holding out hope that they all get struck down by SCOTUS but it's more likely that SCOTUS will say, "yeah, it's not OK but we're not going to force this president to undo it. We reserve the right to tell the next president that they can't do that though."
 
WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
I saw no announcements on this. What kind of "scaling back"? I don't have a sub to WSJ.
I posted an EO here weeks ago that they were all being looked at. Feels like 6 weeks ago now.

I get in trouble for posting those things here so kept it as innocent as possible at the time, but the name of the EO is

"MODIFYING THE SCOPE OF RECIPROCAL TARIFFS AND ESTABLISHING PROCEDURES FOR IMPLEMENTING TRADE AND SECURITY AGREEMENTS"

Sept 5, 2025
 
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WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
I saw no announcements on this. What kind of "scaling back"? I don't have a sub to WSJ.
Seems like there is some reporting we're going to stop tariffing goods that cannot even be grown here like bananas and coffee. Shouldn't have taken 6 months to figure that out.
 
AAPL earnings on 10/30. Buying a couple of weeks before and selling a day or two before announcement has been great for years now. Thank you Mohamed El-Elrian for the tip. Only hiccups have been when the POTUS Tweets something about tariffs.

Anecdotally, Mrs. SLB went to get a new iPhone 17 last week and was told both the 17 & 16 have a 4 week lead time. I don't think there has been that kind of demand in a decade.

Personally, I make this play with options. Hoping for another down day tomorrow so I can throw my chips in the pot. Only difference is I'm going with the 11/7 calls instead of 10/31 as I plan to hold some after the earnings announcement.

FWIW

P&S SILVER!!!
May be a little late on AAPL.

Apple Inc
NASDAQ: AAPL
263.22 USD
+10.93 (4.33%) today
 
WSJ has an article today about tariffs being scaled back. Don’t know if it matters unless you know who tweets about it, but interesting all the same.
I saw no announcements on this. What kind of "scaling back"? I don't have a sub to WSJ.
Seems like there is some reporting we're going to stop tariffing goods that cannot even be grown here like bananas and coffee. Shouldn't have taken 6 months to figure that out.
I planted coffee beans in the backyard. Slackers.
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
In which way are you taking that article?
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
In which way are you taking that article?
Well. Initially it was for Amazon's revenue numbers if the AI spend at AWS is astronomical. But also more fuel for the AI bubble.
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
In which way are you taking that article?
Well. Initially it was for Amazon's revenue numbers if the AI spend at AWS is astronomical. But also more fuel for the AI bubble.
Yeah, that writer thinks it is more of the latter for sure.

I'm split on what these estimates that imply something like 3% of annualized AWS revenue is from Anthropic mean from Amazon's perspective. On one hand, it implies that a large percentage of AWS are driven by this and other AI usages that might not be sustainable. On the other hand, it could be that AWS is just so in demand overall that it can use it's pricing power on fast growing users. Then I think about how Amazon has invested at least $8B in Anthropic and wonder if it is another example of circular financing in this AI space.
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
In which way are you taking that article?
Well. Initially it was for Amazon's revenue numbers if the AI spend at AWS is astronomical. But also more fuel for the AI bubble.
The funny thing is that Open AIs spending amounts seem way way way more. It’s why Oracle is a ticking bomb to me. Sure, I believe there will be no issues with you 10x-ing your revenue in 4 years. There’s no way that you won’t hit the goal.
 
Amazon down 3% this year and up only 30% the last 5 years. The S&P is up 90% over the same period. I’m not selling it, even though I’m tempted, but is this still one of the premier stocks to be holding? I mean even Apple has doubled up over the last 5 years.

This has to have a looming impact on the next earnings...wow.
In which way are you taking that article?
Well. Initially it was for Amazon's revenue numbers if the AI spend at AWS is astronomical. But also more fuel for the AI bubble.
Yeah, that writer thinks it is more of the latter for sure.

I'm split on what these estimates that imply something like 3% of annualized AWS revenue is from Anthropic mean from Amazon's perspective. On one hand, it implies that a large percentage of AWS are driven by this and other AI usages that might not be sustainable. On the other hand, it could be that AWS is just so in demand overall that it can use it's pricing power on fast growing users. Then I think about how Amazon has invested at least $8B in Anthropic and wonder if it is another example of circular financing in this AI space.
Amazon and Google were investing the past few years. As you said it’s a tiny percent of their overall revenue. The Open AI current stuff is truly crazy, especially with Oracle.
 
My brokerage account by % is now 1. AAPL, 2. GOOGL, 3. Speculative sea exploration

I've held 2 of those 3 for over a decade.

Seems healthy.

Not complaining. Just... rationalizing? I think that's the word I'm going for.
 
Lots of folks released the Kraken this morning. Volume already 7X daily average.

Not sure why AMZN is acting like The Baltimore Opera Hat Company, but not bothered. Up 50% plus the guitars is good enough.
 
Maybe I will be able to retire after all.
let's get that plot of land out by the coast. we'll each have a cottage or tiny home.

I like this idea a lot.

Though after the last few days, it'll likely be a tent for me.
Can you save a pad for me?

- guy who has way too many Tesla 2x short shares

Looks like Tesla will post blow out numbers. Really need Musk to screw up the conference call.
 

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