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Strategy for late Round RB lottery tickets! Opinions please (1 Viewer)

CanaBuc

Footballguy
Been doing some thinking about some very late round RB who are either not drafted or are draft in the 9th or later rounds that could end up being RB1 or RB2 if they take over, or maybe even flex worthy if they don't. Would love to know your opinions on them and if there are others to consider.

You see I subscribe to the theory that if I can't get a starting running back, I want a guy with the following characteristics:

1. In a situation where the starting running back is not established and he might have a chance to take over even without injury to the starter

2. Are likely to get a good amount of work even behind the starter

3.Are not just bench fodder handcuffs that get zero points each week unless the starter goes down (Gerhart , Christine Michael, Mike James, Lance Dunbar, Knile Davis etc.)

4.Able to draft late or pick up after the draft so that if they fail early I don't need to cling to them because of a high draft value.

Andre Brown had he not gotten hurt would have been a prime example of the back I was referring to. Here are ones I think can be relevant:

1. Felix Jones is on a Pittsburgh team that has started and failed with Redman before. Leveon Bell while saying he plans to come back next week is nursing a midfoot sprain. these type of injuries linger and can only be tested while practicing, no matter how good they feel when walking (Just ask MJD, McFadden). It is also Bell's second injury before the season starts (knee also) which means even when back he might be injured.Jones did well in fantasy when Murray went down last year and is a good receiving back.

If he doesn't pan put as last man on my bench he gets dropped for anything better.

2. Benny Cunningham. Currently under the radar as is 4th on depth chart. He runs with burst and bower and is a good receiver out of the backfield. He had a monster preseason and would have been a much higher draft pick had he not had a torn patella tendon mid college season (he is since fully recovered from). In front of him are:

Isaiah Pead who has shown to be a bust so far and will best be known for having a name that sounds more like a sentence I have said when drunk.

Daryl Richardson- he is official starter. Last year I had SJAX and was upset the Drich stole production from him. SO I watched enough to see this is not a starting back in the NFL. He is a Chris Johnson sized back without CJ2K speed. I think over the course of a season he would break down under a full workload. I think he will also struggle to run between goal lines and between tackles. Might not take long for the coaches to see he is not the solution as leadback but might be more of a COP option.

Zac Stacy- Rookie 5th round pick of average talent. WOuld prefer him over the other 2 guys but he is just not as good as Benny.

I could see it shaking out after a few games:

Benny as the lead back

DRICH as the 3rd down COP back

Stacy as 3rd back and Pead traded or released.

3. Bryce Brown- Won't say much except the following. Top 10 RB talent in a Chip Kelly offense that in college ran it 65% of time. An average offense has about 65-70 plays per game and an uptempo has 80 plus, lets say estimate 75 plays per game in this offense. You are talking about 45-50 runs a game. Mccoy if he gets 25 carries and another 5 touches on receptions will leave another 20-25 carries on the table. Bryce might see 15 and Polk 5 with a cpl receptions each.

So even as the number 2 back he might see 15-20 touches per game. That is flex worthy at least. Also if Mccoy gets hurt he becomes an easy Rb1.

4. FJAx- See DRICH. Spiller is a mega talent but has never had to carry the full workload. He is best when he is fresh. I can't se ehim getting 300+ touches without either getting injured or wearing down. If defences adjust and force him to run inside more he will struggle to put up the same kind of numbers/touch as last year. Jackson will see work similar likely to Bernard Pierce with possibly more golal line work. Also has better chance of taking over if Spiller gets hurt as Spiller is less durable than Rice.

5. Tolbert- Until J.Stew is back he is the defacto number 2. He is the goal line back (7TD last year in limited touches). He is a good receiver out of the backfield. Steve Smith has already gone out and said they are planning to have him more involved than last year.

Schula the coach was in Tampa at the time that Alstott was there and likes having 2 backs of different styles (a big bruiser and a more polished runner) share duties. This all sounds like a recipe for him seeing 10-12 touches a game and goal line work. Say 10 carries for 40 yards 2 catches for 20. Maybe a score every second game or more. That puts his floor at around 6-8 points depending on standard or ppr. Ceiling around 12-14. This is as the second back. Not a terrible flex option and has 4 games against atlanta and New orleans where he might see more work when Carolina falls behind. Also D. Will is 30 and also might get hurt. If so Tolbert will see more action as Kenjon Barner is a rookie and is hurt so far so might not have much impact in the run game especially on 3rd down or red zone situations.

So in Summary 3 of the above are undrafted in most leagues. FJAX and Brown will be but likely 9th round or later For Brown and 10th or later for FJAx.

Love to hear ll your thoughts

 

sooner

Footballguy
Some good possibilities here (and analysis). i like Fjax and can see Cunningham possibly emerging. B. Brown has great potential here too, but the the logic/projection of touches is optimistic. Kelly won't have the luxury/option of running the ball as often in the NFL with better and more consistent competition, and the much greater likelihood of playing from behind than he had to in college.

 

CanaBuc

Footballguy
Even if he doesn't if he runs or targets backs on 65% of touches that is 50+touches to the backfield. I am including screens and swing passes.

They have dynamic playmakers in backfield who are good receivers. So 15 touches is not unreasonable for Brown.

So far seems Jackson was a hit

Jones a miss

Tolbert a miss though I think that is more Seattle

 

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